Football is back! We’re only one of 18 weeks in, but what fans love to do, above all else, is to overreact to their favorite teams being back in action. The two front-runners for last year’s MVP trophy combining for just 17 points and going 0-2 collectively was the story of the two early matchups, before we saw the highest average points per game scored (53.3 PPG) across the Sunday slate.

Week one is always kind of weird, and the smart thing to do is to take everything we just saw with a grain of salt. Having said that, it’s our first look at rookies, new play-callers and how the guys on the field function as units. So it makes sense to decipher through all that fresh information and boil it down to a few key points.

To do so, I came up with my three biggest takeaways coming out of all 16 games, after watching the broadcast and/or tape afterwards. Within that, these points will, of course, be rather subjective in terms of what I believe matters most. Just last year, I highlighted the lingering issues for Buffalo’s run defense, but I also thought the early returns for the Raiders offense were promising, as it’s easy to fall back to your priors.

Let’s break it all down!

 

 

 

 New England Patriots 10 : 13 Seattle Seahawks 

 

1. Seattle’s defense is still elite

Even without standout rookie Nick Emmanwori, it felt like the Hawks D was able to cleanly see things in front of them and attack. Gameplan-wise it didn’t look that different compared to Super Bowl LX. Injuries dictated that they’d lock Devon Witherspoon more extensively into the nickel, and they, once again, blitzed him from that spot nine(!) times, along with matching 12/21 personnel with a little more base than we’ve become used to with them. Seattle’s edge defenders just exploded into contact, guys on the back end were seamless in how they passed off targets in zone coverage, and Mike Macdonald displayed excellent situational play-calling, with a handful of blitzes getting home when they got New England behind the sticks. On those, I loved seeing how they instantly erased the space that created, and their tremendous tackling from the secondary. We also saw several new faces step up in bigger roles. Rylie Mills knifed into the backfield a couple of times, after getting his first career sack in the Super Bowl, having missed most of is rookie season. Nehemiah Pritchett had a few important stops, to go with a tip-drill interception. Even third-string safety Rodney Thomas looked like he was dialed in when you watched him communicate pre-snap and pick up coverage responsibilities. That speaks to the teaching of Macdonald, DC Arden Durde and the rest of that coaching staff, getting everyone ready.

 

2. Drake Maye threw away the game, but I wasn’t that *that* discouraged by the overall showing

As he said himself, Drake started to lose patience as the game went along, testing areas that were already closing as he let the ball go. On the first interception, he hung the ball up in the air for a deep half safety to range out against a wheel route. The next one was an illustration of Seattle’s symbiotic nature in zone coverage, as the second window for a seam route immediately disappeared. And finally, he just chucked that last pass up for grabs into the end zone with under 20 seconds left, while already in range for a game-tying field goal. Earlier, he also underthrew that flea-flicker to A.J. Brown. Although I do wonder if he thought the timing was off to actually put the pass out in front of his target. Instead, the pass interference call set up a touchdown on the very next snap. With that being said, I did think his operation generally appeared calmer. Maye got the ball out a little quicker, took plenty of free-access throws on the perimeter, and looked like he was in control of what they did protection-wise at the line of scrimmage. That’s a difficult task going up a defensive savant like Mike Macdonald, who usually dictates games to offenses, and I was encouraged that the Pats O-line wasn’t getting blown up this time around. Drake was able to extend drives with some pivotal scrambles and his second pick was directly set up by Romeo Doubs dropping what should’ve been their longest play of the night.

 

3. Jadarian Price needs to be more prominently featured going forward

In my full season predictions, I outlined Price as my selection for Offensive Rookie of the Year, based on reigning champs investing that final selection of the first round into him, how much sense he made for their offense, and the limited competition until Zach Charbonnet would be back to 100%. Although a backup to third overall pick Jeremiah Love (Cardinals) at Notre Dame, he immediately showcased how well he’ll fit that wide zone run scheme that Brian Fleury will largely retain and is very familiar with from his time with the 49ers. On the very first snap, he was able to abruptly stick his foot in the ground and cut across the grain after stretching the defense horizontally, for a 12-yard gain. You saw Price’s burst to capture the corner on those, along with a couple of toss plays, he was able to elude traffic around his legs, and once he got vertical, he’d drop his pads into contact to fall forward. He bounced a duo run into an unblocked corner on the second drive of the day and wasn’t on the field for many defined passing situations. However, five of his ten carries were charted as “successful” based on down and distance, compared to only one of eight for George Holani, and two carries for three yards for third-stringer Emmanuel Wilson. Especially if Sam Darnold misses a few weeks, they need to lean more heavily on the rookie, at least on early downs.

 

 

 San Francisco 49ers 27 : 7 Los Angeles Rams

 

1. Maybe flying halfway around the world before playing a football game a day later wasn’t so smart

This was always going to be an interesting case study in how to approach flying to the furthest destination the NFL has ever “exported their product” towards. While the 49ers decided to stay over for nearly a week in order to acclimate to the 17-hour difference in time zones, the Rams chose a very different approach – fly over for basically one night and a day before kicking off at Melbourne Cricket Ground (28 hours), and then almost immediately going back to Los Angeles. What followed was a 27-7 trashing, which really got out of hand in the second half, when things felt really sluggish for the designated home team in this matchup, in terms of the timing of pass concepts offensively and clicking-and-closing on play designs defensively, most notably to me. Their size difference on the O-line allowed them to run the ball well, to be fair. And you can make a case that this may end up being a wake-up call for the lauded Super Bowl favorites, who are playing the long game here, flushing this trip out of their system quickly. Nonetheless, San Francisco made an early statement, after an offseason that was filled with a myriad of injuries and off-the-field oddities.

 

2. Kyle Shanahan still has some things to teach Sean McVay

Holding an offense led by the reigning league MVP to seven points is obviously an awesome way to start the season, along with having many of the pieces from 2024 back healthy. However, seeing the Niners D-line get moved backwards in the run game for the majority of the first half does give me pause for what this might look like in neutral game scripts against similarly built units. Instead, I found myself marveling at how Shanahan continuously created advantages on the whiteboard and how they actually played out. His ability to manipulate blocking angles with how he dresses up backfield action, involves his receivers near the point of attack from reduced splits, and utilizes subtle motion that doesn’t allow the opposition to react, is stellar. In this game, Kyle Juszczyk frequently would go from wing alignments to an offset I-formation, only to lead or kick out defenders on 45-degree angles. In the pass game, it was all about spacing, finding spots to attack matchups with Mike Evans on key downs, routinely using chip help to neutralize Myles Garrett, and chipping away with underneath completions against all these quarters-based coverages. And then, they caught the Rams napping as Brock Purdy drops back from under center and lofts a skinny post over their heads for a long touchdown.

 

3. It sure is nice to have Nick Bosa and Fred Warner back

As I already mentioned, shutting out your division rivals following a touchdown at the turn from the first to the second quarters is exactly what you were hoping for after finishing last season 30^th in defensive success rate allowed and really struggling to create stops down the stretch. And things almost couldn’t have started any better than seeing Rams right tackle become a turnstile for Bosa on his way to get a hit on Matthew Stafford, whose pass is nearly intercepted by Warner, undercutting a shallow crosser. Bosa added a pair of TFLs, while Warner led the team with 11 total tackles and you could feel his presence in coverage all game. Renardo Green learned his lesson on the lone interception of the day, sinking underneath a sail route by Puka Nacua as a flat defender, after he allowed himself to get tied down and watched the ball be thrown over his head for L.A.’s biggest play of the day on a very similar look. Other than the ones that ended in a touchdown and pick respectively, the only two other Rams drives that gained more than 20 yards ended in a big-time goal-line stop, and then time running out on a meaningless final possession with backups in the lineup. Especially after the most recent injury news of defensive tackle Alfred Collins having torn his patellar tendon, there’s reason to worry about the interior of this unit getting pushed around by bigger teams, but if their speed can shine in a setting like this, they have a couple of true standouts.

 

 

 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27 : 33 Cincinnati Bengals 

 

1. Baker Mayfield is being paid too much for Tampa Bay’s offense to feel this limited

There’s a lot of good that comes from the way Baker likes to play and carry himself, when it comes to teammates buying into him and some of the big plays he can provide with his gunslinger mentality. However, as we saw on this first Sunday, there are also clearly drawbacks. Losing three fumbles killed Tampa Bay in a game that ended up being a lot closer on the scoreboard than it felt for most of the day, but was in reach, considering the final difference of six points. Looking at how they happened makes this even tougher. On the first one, Mayfield tries to escape the pocket whilst stiff-arming one rusher and gets chased down by someone wide off his blindside while putting the ball out there to get knocked loose. Linebacker Demetrius Knight Jr. scoops-and-scores that one. Later on, when they’re in the red zone, he spins out of trouble and tries to make a heroic play, but gets stripped from the side by Barrett Carter, to take points off the board. I won’t blame him as much on the final one, because he’s trying to force the issue, but he double-clutched after hitching up against Boye Mafe hot off the left side, allowing him to redirect and jump on his backside. Overall, his pocket presence and feel for timing were off, along with the erratic movement he showcased, allowing four of ten pressures to convert into sacks. Meanwhile, 11 of his 23 completions came on passes behind the line of scrimmage, with no completions of 20+ air yards overall and just one of 10+ outside the numbers

 

2. Defenses might want to blitz Joe Burrow (more) frequently

This was a trend I noticed when watching the game, and then going through all the advanced metrics, it was totally confirmed. Todd Bowles and the Bucs have been one of the more blitz-heavy defenses across the league for years. They sent extra bodies on 43.2% of Burrow’s dropbacks. He went nine-of-15 for 46 yards, an interception and a sack. On those snaps where they brought four? 16-of-20 for 208 yards, a touchdown and no negative plays or turnovers. Unsurprisingly, you can look at the numbers under pressure in generally bottoming out, but Tampa Bay was only able to do so on 21.6% of dropbacks. We think “ Joe Shiesty” as this assassin who will carve up the blitz – and his play typically at least didn’t drop off throughout his career – but this may be a trend worth monitoring. When Tampa Bay brought five rushers, typically someone was able to come free on a twist or game they ran. Burrow skipped ahead in his progression immediately to the checkdown, which the Bucs were able to rally against and tackle for minimal yardage. And they fooled the savvy signal-caller at one point, which got them back into the game, when they bailed out a mugged-up Josiah Trotter underneath a spot route, who picked off the pass and took it back to the house from 38 yards out.

 

3. Josiah Trotter could headline a promising rookie class of Bucs defenders

Let’s close out with a positive for the visitors, who were in catch-up mode throughout the day, and the one true bright spot for their defense. Trotter provided the splash play that allowed his team to make this an interesting fourth quarter. On that play I just described, his awareness to locate the most nearby route, then toggle his eyes back towards the quarterback and step in front of the throw was highly impressive for his pro debut. Something I knew was going to translate from tape at Missouri – Trotter was a hammer against the run, attacking and actually knocking back blockers at the line of scrimmage or shooting open gaps. He led all players in this game with 11 total tackles, compared to only one miss. And he also recorded his first career sack, grinding through the A-gap he was mugged up in, where Cincinnati had the tight-end as a sniffer ready for him, but he kind of ran through the inside half of the guard next to him, as the supposed set-up man for his D-tackle looping behind him. Tampa Bay’s linebackers aren’t necessarily guys that’ll expand their landmarks in zone coverage and robot back underneath longer-developing routes behind them. A deep crossing route by Mike Gesicki towards the end of the third quarter comes to mind in that sense. But if Trotter can make an impact around the line of scrimmage and dropping out to disrupt passing lanes a few times, that’s highly valuable.

 

 

 New Orleans Saints 30 : 31 Detroit Lions (OT) 

 

1. Drew Petzing will make Jahmyr Gibbs earn that contract, but they shouldn’t run him into the ground

After splitting up the Sonic & Knuckles pairing of Detroit’s backfield this offseason, when they traded David Montgomery to Houston, this organization decided to make Gibbs the highest-paid running back in the NFL, with 67.5 million dollars over the next three years. With former Chief Isiah Pacheco as his backup being on injured reserve, I thought we’d see the dynamic playmaker receive a heavy workload right off the bat, but Sione Vaki handling the only two RB carries, compared to 29 for Gibbs, took that idea to the extreme. Petzing called up plenty of simple dive/duo runs for him, to go with a few trap and toss plays mixed in. Plus, Gibbs was tied for the second-most catches on the team (five). Amon-Ra St. Brown caught ten of 14 targets, but nearly all of them were underneath, for a combined 67 yards. Jameson Williams was unreliable, as he was officially credited with only one drop, but it came on a likely touchdown, as Jared Goff perfectly lofted a post route that split the safeties in cover-two. He failed to secure another grab on a dig route with minimal contact on the ensuing drive, and dropped the ball on a reverse they set up for him, which led to a six-yard loss. So the Lions will need to spread the ball around a little bit more to keep Gibbs healthy all year, and they may be “buy candidates” for a veteran RB from a crowded backfield.

 

2. Tyler Shough had a bad first half, but really stepped up from that point forward

Let me remind people here when they see the final score – this was a 7-0 game in Detroit’s favor at halftime. In part, that was due to Shough’s rough start, where he was a tad late getting the ball out to the correct read when Detroit brought extra pressure, and he threw a couple of picks, even though you can argue that tight-end Noah Fant was at fault on at least one of those targets his way, as he should’ve just sat down an option route against a safety providing a large cushion. New Orleans struggled to protect their second-year quarterback for the most part. Aidan Hutchinson, at one point, cleanly beat left tackle Kelvin Banks Jr. on a spin move, before Taliese Fuaga on the other end of the line seemingly didn’t fan out against a slot blitz later on, which resulted in a sack-fumble and set up a second short touchdown drive following halftime. Yet, after going down 21-0, Shough really turned things up. He had that beautiful high-arcing pass to Chris Olave after scrambling out to his right and the wideout taking off down the sideline, and just continued to go after these corners in man coverage, drawing multiple big pass interference calls. Shough ended with double(!) the big-time throws (six) of any other quarterback on the week, and led the way with 410 passing yards. He orchestrated an eight-play, 75-yard TD drive to send the game to overtime and then answered Detroit by going 80 on ten plays, converting fourth downs on each of those. Unfortunately, the Lions did well to not get out-leveraged to the flats on the primary read, and Shough had to resort to throwing up more of a jump ball to fourth-round pick Bryce Lance on a corner route for a failed two-point conversion

 

3. We need to tinker with the rulebook to avoid the biggest (non-)call of this game

First and foremost, I didn’t think that the Saints got duked or anything like that. By the letter of the law, the refs probably got this right, when just over 20 minutes into the game, Chase Young came off the blindside for a strip-sack seemingly, which Jonas Sanker scooped up and took back to the house to potentially tie the score at points apiece. After review, however, it was determined that Jared Goff’s hand was already coming forward on his throwing motion, and even though the ball clearly traveled backwards, according to NFL VP of officiating, “If a defender contacts the passer *after* that motion has already started, any subsequent backward movement of the ball caused by the defender’s hit is still classified legally as a forward pass attempt rather than a live-ball fumble”. I can read that and agree that the rule was applied correctly, but also think this is a weird look, as defenders literally try to redirect the ball and/or the opponents in control of it the opposite way. The whole “empty hand” piece has led to plenty of unnecessary discourse in the past, but this feels like an easy fix – and a pass that goes backwards should officially be treated as a fumble.

 

 

 

New York Jets 23 : 10 Tennessee Titans 

 

1. Losing a matchup like this by 13 points is just unacceptable

Unless we ended in a tie, one of these two sides was always going to find themselves on the wrong side of it, when both of their fanbase were probably thinking “We have to beat those guys”. So all we could’ve wished for was for neither of them to embarrass themselves. And yet, here we were with the Titans losing by a couple of touchdowns, in a largely non-competitive contest in the second half. Cam Ward made a free blitzer right up the B-gap miss on the initial third down for the Titans, but otherwise showcased poor pocket presence throughout the day, highlighted by an odd-looking fake reverse, where the second-year QB flipped the ball to himself before running straight into the backside of a couple of his offensive linemen. That’s along with more so guiding the ball and being forced to throw it away when he scrambled out wide. Defensively, there were quite a few assignments and tackles being missed (14 – one off the high mark for the week). The one that really stood out came on the Jets’ first touchdown drive, as rookie WR Omar Cooper Jr. was wide open on a simple shallow cross towards the side that the Titans tried to overload the protection on. The Jets possessed the ball for 38:46 minutes, and even special teams were frustrating for Tennessee, as punter Tommy Townsend had three touchbacks compared to only one landing inside the 20, while All-Pro return specialist Chimere Dike went backwards for a negative five yards on the lone punt he fielded.

 

2. Frank Reich must’ve been in the lab prior to his return

When we last saw the now-64-year-old Reich was the Panthers head coach in 2023, when he was fired following a 1-and-10 start, during which Bryce Young had one of the worst debut seasons we had seen from a first overall pick since rookie Jared Goff with the Rams, probably. The spacing and purpose of their passing concepts made a lot more than what I saw in Carolina, with plenty of boots and ways to hit targets in stride. The Titans largely were willing to leave Garrett Wilson one-on-one on the backside of the formation. So that’s where Reich put him in crucial situations and asked him to win – which he did, for the most part. More importantly, they found success on the ground pretty steadily. Reich used receivers in motion to keep edge defenders from crashing off the backside and allowing some nice cutback lanes to develop. He changed up blocking angles and how he deployed bodies on the move in different ways to challenge Tennessee’s discipline in their run fits, to go with handing or pitching the ball in a way that created pause for their opponents. That was enough to get the one-two punch of Breece Hall and Braelon Allen going downhill, as they combined for 142 yards across 32 carries. Overall, they showed great balance until they tried to grind down the clock in the fourth quarter, and he wasn’t afraid to get weird, as he put five(!) tight-ends/fullbacks on the field together at one point. Let’s see if this can last next week against a Rams team that’s probably out for blood.

 

3. Life is too short to write a third paragraph about Jets-Titans in September

This isn’t supposed to be disrespect towards these fanbases, especially the Jets, who looked like they were a competent team for the first time in about a calendar year, but there was no third grand takeaway that came to me here. So just a couple of random thoughts:

A. I want to see New York utilize their rookie class more sooner rather than later, when they’ve got everyone healthy.

B. Tennessee’s defense should hopefully be more capable with Cedric Gray back in the lineup, as untimely as that UTV accident was at the eve of this season.

C. Still, to come out this flat with an energizer bunny like Robert Saleh as the man in charge is highly disappointing. And for as raw a deal as he got when he was fired by the Jets, the blame starts with him for not getting his revenge.

 

 

 Baltimore Ravens 41 : 23 Indianapolis Colts 

 

1. Declan Doyle has re-invigorated Lamar Jackson and the Ravens offense

Baltimore narrowly missed out on repeating as AFC North champions, when Tyler Loop missed a very makeable field goal in Pittsburgh in the final game of last year’s regular season. Yet, I don’t think any Ravens fan watching them would tell you that they were confident about what they saw from the offense throughout the majority of the year. Lamar missed time and seemingly had regressed in terms of managing the pocket, design-wise things had run a little stale, and their receivers struggled to consistently get open. On snap one of the afternoon, Doyle pulled out one of the staples from the Ben Johnson offense he worked in last season in Chicago, when they ran an under center bootleg and Lamar hit Zay Flowers on a deep corner route, who cut back inside and took it all the way to the one-yard line, before walking into the end zone untouched on a keep, with someone securing the corner for him. Lamar had that Houdini escape on a third-and-16, where he ducked under a would-be sack, but it was the looks they presented to him to push the ball down the field, and how Zay was weaponized off motion that really encouraged me. Meanwhile, Derrick Henry just ran wild for 144 yards and three touchdowns on 24 carries, where they regularly were able to give them a plus in numbers by moving around people. The Ravens ended up with two passes of over 50 yards and six carries of 10+, for an explosive play rate in the 98th percentile of games over the last decade. Could we see Lamar win his third straight MVP when he’s had a new coordinator?

 

2. Both defenses may struggle quite a bit against balanced opponents

Obviously, one of these units allowed 18 extra points and has significantly more concerns coming out of their season opener. The Ravens defense had a 52.9% pressure rate – highest for any team in week one – recovered a fumble, Roquan Smith came up with an interception, and they forced another turnover on downs on the final possession for the home team. Having said that, Daniel Jones understandably looked like a statue back there for Indy, coming off the torn Achilles he suffered past the midway point of last season. And they surrendered a success rate and EPA per play on run plays that ranked 27th or worse league-wide. So there are promising things about the Jesse Minter debut, but multi-faceted opponents may be able to test them in different ways. For the Colts D on the other side, there isn’t much to feel good about right now. Justin Walley, after missing his entire rookie season, and this year’s third-rounder A.J. Haulcy were welcomed to the secondary by allowing a combined seven of eight targets to be completed for 157 yards, where the man coverage they want to rely upon worked against them with all these run-away routes off play-action. They couldn’t stop King Henry from gaining momentum as he stretched them horizontally, DeForest Buckner was the only guy up front to consistently apply pressure, and they gave up an NFL-worst 169 yards after the catch on the week.

 

3. Maybe paying Daniel Jones and Alec Pierce a combined 72.5 million dollars per year wasn’t so smart

That brings us to some of the financial decisions the Colts have made over the last calendar year. Considering their offense was on a borderline-historic pace until “Indiana Jones” suffered his first leg injury, which cascaded into the torn Achilles, I’m willing to admit that I was definitely wrong about bringing him into the building and starting him over former fourth overall pick Anthony Richardson. I was really impressed with how Shane Steichen utilized all of the pieces among their skill-position group, how the quarterback executed those concepts, and the role Pierce was able to assume to a more consistent capacity. With all that in mind, I still thought giving the latter two their bags, when one’s coming off a potentially career-threatening injury, and the other barely cracked the 1000-yard mark by three, was pretty wild. I want to give the quarterback some more time, due to those circumstances, but he was so much more hesitant to pull the trigger or try to use his legs in his return. And Pierce didn’t manage to finish a couple of contested grabs, with only six targets for a guy being paid this highly. On the heels of what they invested in cornerback Sauce Gardner, who they traded major draft capital to the Jets for, they haven’t given themselves much wiggle room.

 

 

Atlanta Falcons 13 : 20 Pittsburgh Steelers 

 

1. Patrick Graham will make Pittsburgh’s defense a pain to deal with again

It’s been a while since a Steelers defense truly felt like one of those units from the early 2000s and early 2010s. Obviously, they’ve had stalwart players on that unit since then, but they had started to lose some of their identity on that side of the ball in recent years. Nothing embodied that return to physical Pittsburgh D more than a random play in the middle of the third quarter, when the Falcons ran a crack-toss into the boundary, which free agent cornerback addition Jamel Dean just blew up the fullback at the line of scrimmage on, and wrapped up star running back Bijan Robinson for no gain. The home team didn’t play a single snap of man coverage, in part probably because they were without the other starting CB Joey Porter Jr. over an ongoing contract dispute. Yet, I liked how aggressively they attacked forward out of those zone looks and the way those guys on the back-end were roaming. Jalen Ramsey had a nice play in the first quarter of flipping and carrying Kyle Pitts up the seam, before sticking a hand in between that guy’s mitts for the PBU. Jaquan Brisker punished a throw late over the middle of the field from Cooper Rush. And, of course, T.J. Watt turned into a menace in the fourth quarter, with a pair of sacks and an incredible pick-six on a little swing pass supposed to be thrown by him. They’ll definitely face some tougher tests going forward.

 

2. Bijan Robinson can almost single-handedly create offense

This is unsurprising for last year’s leader in total scrimmage yards. Yet, what he means to his team was apparent as ever, with the Falcons already being on their third quarterback. Robinson’s ability to tempo his runs, gain speed through cuts, and drive the pile forward stood out throughout the day. Every time Bijan was subbed off for backup Brian Robinson Jr. (who turned nine carries into 31 yards), it felt like they were losing a certain level of dynamism. Atlanta split him out to throw him a couple of bubble and tunnel screens, including Atlanta’s lone touchdown of the day, when he knifed through the lane between two blockers on the perimeter and slipped through a diving tackling attempt from 24 yards out. He also had a sick one-handed grab on a pass behind him in the flats early on. Altogether, Bijan led all offensive players in the NFL with ten missed tackles forced if you combine carries and receptions, which he contributed 83 and 90 yards respectively through those avenues. Dead legs, cross-overs, stutter-and-go-type maneuvers, and just those sudden spurts to eliminate angles were ever-present when the ball was in his hands. At one point he did fumble when he got his elbow too far off his body, jump-cutting into the unblocked corner on the backside when space was clogged up inside on a third-and-one – which he jumped back on top of himself. And he got lucky a teammate bailed him out later on, after having a helmet put the ball to jar it loose another time.

 

3. This just wasn’t enough from the Steelers offense considering the opportunities they had

For a team facing a third-string quarterback and whose kicker doubled his miss total of field goals from last year already (two of four), winning by just a touchdown felt subpar, especially considering that margin was set up by that T.J. Watt pick-six defensively. As a whole, Atlanta averaged a minuscule 2.8 yards per carry, and they ended up with just one play of over 20 yards on the day. By far their longest run of the day (17 yards) came about midway through the fourth quarter, when Jaylen Warren churned forward through friend and foe, once the Falcons defense had gotten worn down due to being on the field as much as they were. Meanwhile, once again, we saw a lack of willingness to attack beyond the sticks by Aaron Rodgers, in favor of progressing to the checkdown. Don’t get me wrong – he was happy to take the occasional vertical shot when he had one of his guys isolated down the field and the chance for an interception was low. However, while Roman Wilson should’ve probably found a way to haul in a deep bomb for a touchdown on a third-and-long at one point, Rodgers ended the day going zero-of-six on passes of 20+ air yards, with the ball or target landing out of bounds on most of them. His nicest throw of the day actually came after escaping to the left in the low red zone, flipping his hips around and finding Pat Freiermuth transitioning into a secondary route working the back line of the end zone. I also did like seeing him fit in a stick-nod to the big tight-end at the end of the first half, but I can’t fully give him credit for the ball going right through the hands of the hook defender underneath it.

 

 

 Chicago Bears 59 : 37 Carolina Panthers 

 

1. The Bears offense will actually need to break the scoring record – but they might just do it

Things certainly didn’t get off on the wrong foot for the Bears in Carolina, as wide receiver Luther Burden had the ball punched out for a fumble recovery the opposite way on the third snap of the game. Over the final 12 drives of the day (excluding a kneel-down just before halftime), they’d score eight touchdowns and one field goal. Ben Johnson had a few cool wrinkles to make the job easier on his guys up front in terms of the angles it created, but they were just running the ball at will, with both running backs cracking 100 yards on the ground on 28 combined carries, and Caleb Williams adding a couple of long scrambles into the end zone. What really stood out to me was the buy-in of all their receivers as blockers. My favorite moment came when Jahdae Walker – who had six catches as an undrafted rookie last year – peeled back on someone in pursuit way down the field to spring Kyle Monangai loose for a 61-yard breakaway score. And he got rewarded by getting to cap off the ensuing drive with a one-yard touchdown, where they snuck him across the formation on play-action. Chicago now has four of the seven most recent games of 250+ rushing yards across the NFL, Rome Odunze had the catch of the week, plucking the ball off the helmet of a trailing corner, and they didn’t even need Colston Loveland to catch a single pass, following a sensational close to his rookie campaign. With all that in mind, their defense also surrendered five completions of 20+ yards and three carries of 10+, with a lot of things to worry about.

 

2. Jalen Coker’s breakout is fully here

The biggest thorn in the eyes of the Bears clearly was this third-year wide receiver, who caught eight of nine targets for 138 yards and two touchdowns. Despite slipping momentarily, he easily beat Chicago’s CB1 Jaylon Johnson on an out-and-up, before the throw forced him to finish with an acrobatic toe-tap catch rather than just laying it out there for a third TD on his part. He did run by Tyrique Stevenson on the other side for a 51-yard score soon after on what appeared to be another quasi-double move fade. He regularly was able to defeat leverage with how he stemmed his routes and used physicality, he did damage on crossers, and made Stevenson look finish when crossing the goal line a second time, as he spun inside when he felt the defender drive on an out route, to waltz in. I highlighted Coker as one of my favorite breakout candidates heading into the 2026 season, and highly encourage you to read more on him. Nonetheless, it doesn’t negate how bad those Bears corners looked like in isolated coverage. At one point, they completely lost running back Jonathon Brooks taking off down the sideline when Bryce Young extended the play, and the Panthers finished the day with an average of 5.7 yards per rush as well.

 

3. You can already feel the injuries across Carolina’s D-line massively impact them

The Panthers were a team I kind of wanted to buy into once most of the player acquisition process was done, and it looked like the roster was really taking shape into what they want to be. Yet, before we even got out of the first week of training camp, third-round rookie receiver Chris Brazzell II and last year’s second-round edge defender Nic Scourton were both lost for the season thanks to tearing ligaments in their knees. Well, Patrick Jones and Cam Jackson were already ruled out for Sunday, and then the injury continued to bite when they actually got onto the field in a meaningful game. Bobby Brown was dealing with a bulging disc in his back, which flared up twice throughout the day, and their most important D-tackle Derrick Brown kind of stopped and limped off the field following Chicago’s third touchdown. This isn’t at all supposed to take away from what the Bears were able to accomplish, particularly mashing a somewhat depleted Carolina front on the ground, but you’re simply not going to get off the field if you allow quarterbacks to have a time-to-throw of 3.47 seconds, and then you can’t chase him down when he decides to take off.

 

 

 

 Cleveland Browns 10 : 34 Jacksonville Jaguars 

 

1. Trevor Lawrence is still in last year’s late-season form

In one of the highest-scoring opening weeks ever, where the Bears scored 59 points and the Bills put 36 on what many perceived as the top defenses in the league coming into the year (Houston), the Jags beating a lowly Browns team by 24 points doesn’t look as crazy on paper. However, that’s still a capable defensive unit, and they got shredded by Trevor Lawrence until they took their foot off the gas in the fourth quarter. Jacksonville’s quarterback averaged 10.5 air yards per attempt, yet also posted a 69.2% success rate, with only one more incompletion than touchdowns (four). He only attempted 23 total passes. Yet, nine different players caught passes on the day. T-Law was just driving the ball on deep comebacks to the far sideline and hitting tight windows throughout. A couple of those touchdown tosses were great designs from head coach Liam Coen for the defensive structures the Browns presented to them, but the ball was on the money. Lawrence had an unbelievable throw on the second TD of the day from the five-yard line, where he turned the opposite way on play-action and ever so slightly held the middle safety in place by staring down the barrel for a split second, before firing a laser in-between four defenders to sixth-round rookie Josh Cameron. Also, the only sack he took was on a third down already up 24-0 shortly before halftime, rather than putting the ball at risk. This is on the heels of eight straight wins, with 24 total TDs compared to only six giveaways heading into last year’s playoffs.

 

2. Making Browns fans still watch this quarterback is a disgrace

Reflecting on how we felt about Deshaun Watson when the offseason started, and he was basically sent to Siberia in people’s minds, coming off two Achilles tears that followed a 19-yard stint across three seasons in Cleveland that rivaled any quarterback across their illustrious history of atrocious play at the position, to him being named the starter shortly before kickoff, was a wild ride to follow. To see him call out one of the most loyal fanbases in the NFL who weren’t happy with him simply performing badly, aside from all the questionable off-field behavior, and then being handed the job for said play in the preseason, must’ve felt like a slap in the face. He started off his first regular showing by throwing right at Foye Oluokun drifting underneath a curl route as a hook dropper for a pick on the opening drive. Deshaun would constantly bail too deep in the pocket, which created easier rush angles off the edges, regularly took his eyes down on the D-line, and he was way too herky-jerky moving around the pocket. When he decided to escape, he had horrible accuracy on the run, forcing receivers to step out of bounds even when he did find them working back towards him late. He did have one great throw on a deep post to rookie wideout Denzel Boston, but that was a meaningless touchdown in the grand scheme of things, cutting the lead to 34-10 just past the two-minute warning. Continuing to put him out there simply isn’t worth the backlash.

 

3. Jacksonville’s defense should be fine with Ventrell Miller stepping in for Devin Lloyd

When going through the offseason additions and departures for every team over the last few months, what stood out about the Jaguars was how little they tinkered with the roster. Offensively, they returned all but one of 11 starters – with a plan of replacing Travis Etienne with more of a committee approach – although third-round rookie Emmanuel Pregnon ended up jumping in at left guard for Patrick Mekari, who currently is on injured reserve. On defense, they swapped out safety Andrew Wingard for Eric Murray, but the big loss they suffered in free agency was second-team All-Pro linebacker Devin Lloyd. Seeing him sign in Carolina for 42 million dollars across three years made you question if they should’ve really let him go, but they believed in the development of 2023 fourth-round pick Ventrell Miller, who missed his entire rookie season with injury and had been solid in spot duty over the past two seasons. The early returns are clearly very promising, as he led the Jags in solo (seven) and total tackles (ten), of which five constituted as “defensive stops” according to Pro Football Focus (a positive outcome for the defense based on down and distance). On the Oluokun interception, it was his pressure, somersaulting a cut block by the running back, that affected the throw. He also ended up with an effort sack redirecting against a scrambling Watson off play-action, peanut-punched the ball out of K.C. Concepcion’s hands for a takeaway, and ended up earning the highest PFF grade of any linebacker on the week (92.8).

 

 

Buffalo Bills 36 : 31 Houston Texans 

 

1. Dalton Kincaid should be prominently featured in Buffalo’s offense

I was a big fan of Kincaid coming into the 2023 draft and I was intrigued with the idea of the Bills utilizing their “11.5 personnel”, which should’ve consisted of him in combination with veteran Dawson Knox, potentially giving them advantages in both the run and pass game, dependent on how opponents were going to match them. Unfortunately, that concept sounded a lot better in theory than what it looked like in practice, as Kincaid has yet to establish himself as a legitimate in-line blocker, whom defenses would have respect in that regard. He has, however, been highly productive as a pass-catcher on a per-snap basis. As I outlined in my “fantasy diamonds” video, his 2.79 yards per route run led all tight-ends across the NFL with as many targets as received in the regular season (49). With Jackson Hawes immediately carving out a role as that old-school addition to the O-line, it makes Buffalo’s three-TE sets more viable, where Kincaid can provide a vertical component that opponents need to account for. His first catch at Houston came on a deep corner route out of that grouping, where he high-pointed the ball over All-Pro corner Derek Stingley Jr. Later on, he came up with another one on the same route off motion from 11 personnel. He caught a crosser as the primary when they lined one of three TEs as an offset fullback on play-action. And finally, he hauled a wild throw across his body from Josh Allen. Kincaid has been battling through some nicks and bruises, but when he’s close to 100%, he’s simply too talented as a route-runner, at the catch point and with the ball in his hands to not be a significant part of their weekly gameplans.

 

2. David Montgomery provides Houston exactly what they were missing last season

On the other side from Kincaid and D.J. Moore, who also showed out in his Bills debut, following the trade from Chicago, the Texans’ big offseason addition quickly established himself as a major piece of their offense this season. Monty touched the ball 23 times for 79 yards and three(!) touchdowns. The three-yards-per-carry average looks underwhelming on paper, as Buffalo did stuff a few of their runs, but giving him three straight opportunities to punch it in from a yard away on their initial touchdown drive and calling upon him in multiple other short-yardage situations will lead to that as a result. However, that’s precisely what they needed from the veteran running back. Last year, Houston saw an NFL-high 29% of their short-yardage runs (3^rd and 4^th down with two or less yards to go) stopped for zero or negative yardage, and they averaged under 1.8 yards per carry inside the red zone altogether. The Texans extended a couple of possessions by pounding the ball inside on 4^th-and-one, and the only one of five red zone trips they didn’t convert into a touchdown came when C.J. Stroud was strip-sacked at the end. Additionally, after Houston’s running backs were flags in protection last season, Monty didn’t allow any pressures on his quarterback across five pass-blocking snaps.

 

3. I’ll take some more of this in the AFC Championship

With how muddy the AFC appears to be, especially after week one notoriously being a liar, there are plenty of intriguing potential matchups to decide who’ll represent the conference in Super Bowl LXI. With that being said, getting to watch these two sides meet back up in late January would be really fun. On the surface, having the league’s best quarterback (Josh Allen) go up against what many still view as the top defense right now (Texans) is already cinema on its own. As an illustration of that, not many guys would have the balls to see cornerback Kamari Lassiter drop a potential game-deciding interception in the end zone on what appeared to be a miscommunication with WR Josh Palmer, and then go after him in that same matchup for a touchdown on a post route the very next snap. Having said that, I was equally interested in how Stroud might bounce back from two horrible playoff showings that clouded most people’s view of him throughout the offseason. He did get stripped a couple of times on Sunday by a Buffalo D that did some new things in terms of bringing pressure (with Greg Rousseau having a monster performance), but seeing him loft that perfect honey-hole shot to Nico Collins on a fade down the sideline, his ability to extend plays from within the pocket, and then pick up a crucial first down with his legs, when necessary, makes you believe in a path for him taking Houston the distance, if their defense doesn’t give up over 30 points for the first time since November of 2024.

 

 

 Miami Dolphins 13 : 27 Las Vegas Raiders 

 

1. This Raiders O-line looks as if they’ve been swapped out entirely

In 2025, it was basically impossible to run the ball behind this group. Ashton Jeanty was stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage on 71 of his 266 carries (26.7%), and a staggering 83.6% of his rushing yardage came after contact. Miami started to blitz on early downs in order to create a few negative plays, but there weren’t really any true missed assignments, and the way those guys fired off the ball looked entirely different. New head coach Klint Kubiak pretty much utilized all five of their guys up front as pullers. They managed to escort their running backs to the corner a few times or just provided them time and space to make decisions. Jeanty and preseason standout rookie Mike Washington Jr. combined for 30 carries totaling 143 yards, to go with a pair of touchdowns for Jeanty as a receiver. Additionally, they were able to keep their veteran quarterback clean for the majority of the day. Kirk Cousins wasn’t sacked once across 31 dropbacks and the rate at which he was pressured was just 1% higher than the low mark for any quarterback in week one. That’s despite double-clutching and/or re-setting inside the pocket because he decided to go elsewhere multiple times.

 

2. Both quarterbacks did some good things, but also had some head-scratching moment

Malik Willis had four completions of 25+ yards, hitting dig routes off dagger, lofting the ball to guys on longer-developing crossing routes, and firing in deep hook routes later into the progressions. Plus, he scrambled for Miami’s lone touchdown of the day. Yet, while he did have a couple of nice rips after hitching up into the pocket, he also took a couple of bad sacks after escaping it early or just looked uncomfortable with trash around his legs. His feel for passing lanes being inhibited by defensive linemen was also poor. At one point in the fourth quarter, he threw the ball right at the hands of a defensive tackle quickly coming loose on the pass rush, which was nearly picked off by the big man off the tip. Meanwhile, Kirk Cousins racked up completions by checking the ball down frequently, and I will give him credit for exhausting progressions with good pace, including on pure dropbacks from under center. However, he wasn’t credited with any big-time throws and completed more passes to his opponents (two) than his teammates (one) on passes of 10+ yards. On the first INT, he didn’t do anything with his eyes to hold the free safety in place from his single-high alignment, and then put the ball slightly too high and far in front on a bender. And then up by a couple of touchdowns early in the fourth quarter, the field-side safety in cover-two had nothing to keep him from poaching over against the only receiver drifting/settling over the middle of the field. Yet, Cousins straight-up freezing as he was locked in on the decision made it a lot easier to undercut the pass.

 

3. The second level for Las Vegas felt completely different

Lastly, I was quite encouraged by what I saw from this newly forced linebacker tandem for the Raiders. That group was the counterpart to their O-line last season, as the position group that was a clear area of concern on the other side of the ball. Routinely, they’d get pulled off their landmarks in zone coverage for easy completions, got undisciplined in their rush lanes when deployed as blitzers, and didn’t operate within the flow of run concepts. That’s why Vegas decided to reunite former Georgia teammates Nakobe Dean and Quay Walker, who complement each other very well. Dean is more of an inside thumper typically, racking up a pair of TFLs, including a sack after closing down on a scrambling Malik Willis as a spy. Walker’s range allowed him to tie for a team-high six tackles, along with jumping on a fumble to fully seal the win at the two-minute warning. That ball was knocked loose by hybrid safety Jeremy Chinn by the way, who will also feature in as a dime backer at times. In general, those windows underneath in zone coverage felt a lot tighter, and it was tough to find completions against them.

 

 

 Washington Commanders 22 : 24 Philadelphia Eagles 

 

1. Washington needs to learn how to behave around the end zone

Philadelphia only ran 53 plays on the day (14 fewer than Washington) and gained just ten first downs on 12 possessions. However, three of those went for more than 40 yards, including a pair of long touchdowns. So with less than a minute before the start of the fourth quarter, the Commanders found themselves down by eight points. From that point forward, they actually scored lengthy touchdown drives on their two remaining possessions. The first of those was capped off by a seemingly impossible play for Eagles nickelback Cooper DeJean, where Stefon Diggs was given a two-way go out of a bunch set and won to the inside. Only he continued to jump against the goal post, drawing an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty that ended up costing Washington a chance to tie the game on a two-point attempt. On the latter, rookie WR Antonio Williams made a great diving grab at the front pylon off a nicely executed rub play. Yet, when they did ultimately have to go for two, they called a shovel pass to John Bates, which took the ball out of Jayden Daniels’ hands, and the Eagles were all over. I liked some of the things I saw from new offensive coordinator David Blough, and Diggs actually had a pretty sick route at one point against DeJean, but you have to be better/smarter in those game-deciding situations.

 

2. I should feel better about this Eagles offense after scoring 28 points

Initially watching it live on my second screen, I saw a couple of big plays sprinkled in with a lot of “meh” for Philly. Going through the numbers and re-watching it on tape, I can’t say I was overwhelmed by what I saw. Sure, Jalen Hurts went 14-of-25 for just over 200 yards and three touchdowns, without a turnover. However, he also attempted and – to his credit – completed all three passes of 10+ yards between the numbers, when all offseason we were talking about how new offensive coordinator Sean Mannion was going to put an emphasis on putting him more under center, featuring a higher rate of play-action and attacking the middle of the field. They called play-action three times – one was more a pre-snap alert read, once a dump-off to the flats was dropped, and then there was that game-long 64-yard high corner route to Dontayvion Wicks, where a couple of Washington DBs lost track of the ball. It just didn’t really feel like they married the run and pass game. Which, speaking of the former, Saquon Barkley once ripped off a 42-yarder, where he made a couple of defenders miss on a simple zone read. Altogether, their 26.3% success rate on the ground was the third-lowest of any team on the week. I will note that playing with the lead for the final three quarters did play into their approach, and Hurts had a couple of key scrambles, but things didn’t look markedly different to me on the surface.

 

3. Sonny Styles’ presence was felt immediately

I kept quiet at the time, because it isn’t even worth interacting with. However, there was this weird Twitter/X mafia that tried to make people believe Styles didn’t look ready for the NFL based on his preseason tape, where he simply didn’t end up at the point of attack a whole lot or was largely unoccupied in coverage, to the point where it didn’t feel like he found himself around the ball on too many plays. That doesn’t mean that he didn’t do his job or processed things correctly. In regular action on Sunday, he made much more of an impact right away. He picked up a sack, where he completely trucked Saquon Barkley trying to pick up a blitz right up the B-gap, before wrapping up Jayden Daniels, who had nowhere to go. Additionally, he finished a couple of tough solo tackles after attacking the backfield on run plays, including once where he back-doored a block by Eagles future Hall of Fame right tackle Lane Johnson on a zone concept. You could simply feel what almost looks like a rocked-up basketball player on the second level for this Commanders defense, thanks to tremendous range in coverage and how quickly he can close ground once he triggers on plays. I’m really looking forward to seeing how new DC Daronte Jones will deploy him as the season moves along.

 

 

 

Green Bay Packers 22 : 39 Minnesota Vikings 

 

1. The Vikings clearly were the more resilient team

Okay, this is starting to get worrisome for the Packers. When their fans were calling for Matt LaFleur’s job following their Wildcard Round loss to the Bears in which they led 21-3 at halftime, I thought they were crazy, considering how good an offensive coordinator he has been for them. That’s still the case, and he showcased that a few times on Sunday as well. However, I also can’t continue to ignore their trend of blown leads. In five of their eight losses last season, they had a win probability of over 80%, and at least 94% in the fourth quarter in three of those. This past Sunday at Minnesota, the Packers knocked out starting quarterback Kyler Murray on just the second defensive drive of the day, following an interception of a bad deep throw, and scored a touchdown themselves next in order to go up 9-0. His backup Carson Wentz – who I’ve also said was the best Vikings QB last season – kept battling and delivered some big-boy throws. The defense was flying around and doing crazy Brian Flores stuff. And they ended up outscoring their division rivals 29-nothing over the final 20 minutes of the game. So give Minnesota a ton of credit, but the game-changing moment here was simply a result of poor decision-making by LaFleur and company. Early in the fourth quarter, they were about to go up by eight on a field goal. Yet, they instead decided to take those points off the board, since there was an offside penalty on the kick, only to have a sneak on fourth-and-one stuffed.

 

2. Green Bay’s passing attack looks potent, but they’re missing the steady drumbeat of Josh Jacobs

I’ll get to what Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores did as an aggressor, to create negative plays and stop drives throughout the second half, in a second. However, early on it felt like Jordan Love was really dialed in, frequently beating those pressure variations with throws that beat their zone defenders as they were still dispersing. That included hitting Christian Watson on the run over the middle of the field, who turned on the jets for an 81-yard opening touchdown. I’d still argue Justin Jefferson was the best receiver on the field and appears ready for a major bounce-back season, with hopefully more steady play at quarterback, but Watson matched his TDs (two) and actually racked up 55 more yards (147) on one fewer target (eight). Last year’s first-round pick Matthew Golden was the most heavily featured receiver for the Pack, finding quick openings as their new starting X, but also running away from opponents on crossers, for 95 total yards. Having said that, in a set-up that really lent itself to grinding away the game on the ground, they struggled to move the ball through that avenue. MarShawn Lloyd and Chris Brooks combined for 20 carries, to go with Love’s failed sneak, for an underwhelming 66 yards (3.1-yard average). Minnesota, of course, blitzed the run on early downs to put the Packers behind the chains, but Jacobs, still going through his legal trouble, couldn’t provide them that balance between the tackles, as the two young guys were a little too bounce-happy.

 

3. Brian Flores continues to overpower protections

Following the initial wave of Kyler Murray throwing the ball up for an interception and then taking that big hit that resulted in an interception on their second possession, before Christian Watson outraced the Vikings defense for an 81-yard touchdown that put the visitors up 9-0, it felt like the home team was about to lose control of this divisional affair. Yet, along with Carson Wentz stepping up and heavily featuring his top receiver, Flores decided to set the tone with a bunch of exotic pressures. He constantly put six or seven defenders around the line of scrimmage and used deceptive coverage rotations that were almost impossible to solve for Jordan Love before some actually got home, blitzing on an absurd 78% of passing downs. That included one play where they started with a clear cover-three tell with everyone else mugged up, but somehow ended up playing like a four-two fire zone, where they only rushed five, but one of them was unblocked for a sack up the B-gap. Love routinely had to release the ball off his back foot, and Packers right tackle Zach Tom actually ended up with the ball twice after his QB got stripped. The one truly bad play they had was Christian Watson’s second touchdown, where they completely lost the big-play receiver on a corner route on a clever design in the low red zone, where they had to account for him in the run game, being brought in motion for an inside block. Still, they ended up closing out the game with a tip-drill INT by new addition James Pierre, after disrupting the timing of a play late.

 

 

Arizona Cardinals 26 : 14 Los Angeles Chargers 

 

1. We went just way too far with our Cardinals ignorance considering their offensive weaponry

When you have a team that is tied for the lowest projected win total, thanks in large part to playing in a division with three teams that won 12+ games last season, and the two biggest favorites to win Super Bowl LXI, it’s easy to get lost in the shuffle. Although I try to cover all 32 NFL teams, I can’t say that I discussed them as extensively as their direct competitors either. When I wrote about them a little less than a month ago, trying to define success for every team, I said that they need “Matt LaFleur to install an offensive system that can help out a rookie quarterback [in 2027], and for the defense to finally show tangible improvements for an extended stretch”. Well, they didn’t get the memo of supposedly being a bottom-feeder, and upset the offseason darling Chargers by 12, as 9.5-point underdogs. Something I did highlight a few times, but should’ve probably weighed even heavier, is how potent their skill-position group on offense is. As good as that 33-yard grab by Marvin Harrison Jr. was, that being his only one of the day actually remains concerning. However, Jacoby Brissett was standing strong in the pocket and delivering big-boy throws to Trey McBride, Michael Wilson and new signee Kendrick Bourne, just continuing to find space within L.A. zone coverages, as Mike LaFleur did a great job clearing out the middle of the field. Tyler Allgeier leading the team with 17 carries may not be what fantasy managers want to see, but third overall pick Jeremiyah Love looked spry in flashes, including his first career TD, bouncing a split zone run and stiff-arming the corner. He’ll create more highlights as they continue to ramp up his opportunities.

 

2. The Mike McDaniel effect was pretty underwhelming in the Chargers’ first outing

I’m at fault as much as anyone else when it comes to hyping up L.A.’s offense this offseason. While I acknowledged their questionable guard tandem, I was of the mind that McDaniel’s rushing attack in Miami had been so much about their tackles securing the edges in order to get their ball-carriers out to the corner, and that even with the injury to Tyler Biadasz, second-round pick Jake Slaughter would be a worthy replacement, with how he can be weaponized on the move, which may ultimately be a positive in the long run anyway, keeping him at his natural spot. Well, Omarion Hampton and Keaton Mitchell combined for just 16 carries worth 52 yards (3.25-yard average), with Hampton producing their only one attempt of 10+ yards, but also having a monstrous fumble in a 7-7 game to start the second quarter, where he simply hit his arm against the backside of a blocking wide receiver. Protection-wise, right guard was a mess, with five QB pressures allowed across 39 pass-blocking snaps. Old friend Trey Pipkins made a cameo appearance, surrendering the lone actual sack on just 14 opportunities. Justin Herbert was never truly comfortable in the pocket, but he was just off on too many throws, especially laying the balls short a few times down the field, and there were errors in the protection plan. The one bright spot – on multiple occasions, McDaniel was able to clear out the middle of the field for Ladd McConkey, who caught five of seven targets for 82 yards and a touchdown.

 

3. You couldn’t tell which defense had been a difference-making unit the last two years

Coming into the season, the Chargers faced the challenges of replacing one of the bright, young defensive minds in Jesse Minter calling plays, while the Cardinals surprisingly stuck with DC Nick Rallis for a fourth year. You absolutely couldn’t tell which of the two finished inside the top ten and the other outside the top 20 in DVOA last season. On several occasions, L.A. had defenders taking a step the wrong way initially, or there was just too much air in the coverage altogether, now under Chris O’Leary. Jacoby Brissett could consistently step into throws from clean pockets, and when the Bolts were playing man/match coverage, that receiving corp for Arizona pretty consistently found separation, including Trey McBride beating Derwin James in crucial situations. On the other side, we saw a handful of the creative ways Rallis wants to bring pressure, but they now have the personnel to be a little more straightforward and played a pretty sound game altogether. I was very impressed with Arizona’s secondary pieces and the tight coverage they played throughout the day, showcasing excellent route anticipation and not allowing themselves to get caught up with rubs/picks for the most part. And their front was able to compress the pocket around Justin Herbert, along with getting a few people loose on twists. A 42.9% pressure rate is very reminiscent of L.A. last season, but a different stratosphere from where Arizona was previously.

 

 

Dallas Cowboys 20 : 28 New York Giants 

 

1. I didn’t give enough credit for how well the pieces on this Giants offense fit together

Even after watching New York put 28 points on the board in a win, I’m not going to act like my concerns were misplaced when it comes to the guys in charge of their offense. Matt Nagy and Greg Roman have earned a reputation of being pretty basic schematically, and things tend to turn stale for me. That may very well still be the case long-term, but for now, I didn’t weigh the value of having personnel that fit what they’ll want to do heavily enough. Fullback Patrick Ricard, who John Harabugh brought over with him from Baltimore, was on the field for nine of eleven snaps on the G-Men’s opening touchdown drive (54% of total snaps), they let Cam Skattebo run wild behind that big O-line on a bunch of gap concepts, another former Raven, Isaiah Likely, caught a pair of touchdowns and a big third-down pass on the final possession, but more importantly, weaponized his blocking on the move rather than asking him to drive an edge defender off the ball from in-line. Additionally, I thought they really simplified reads for quarterback Jaxson Dart, where they created these big pockets off play-action with seven men and pass pro, where he’d go “one-two-take off”.

 

2. The Christian Parker effect is lacking magnitude early on

Having given praise to what the Giants offense was doing, how sloppy the Cowboys defense looked like was actually more disappointing to me. For most of the offseason, my thoughts on them as a team were that they were going to have a top-five offense, and with Parker taking over a completely overhauled unit that added pieces via free agency, trades and the draft (that made sense), them being close to average rather than bottom of the league, could make them one of the more dangerous NFC contenders. Well, the early returns are highly underwhelming. Their only true sack came when Jaxson Dart completely missed that he had a “hot” blitzer who wasn’t accounted for in protection (the other one was a designed carry). They had several missed assignments, New York went 9-of-11 on third downs, and they were helped out by 114 extra penalty yards. The two most indictable plays to me were a swing and a flat route to Devin Singletary to the left. On the first, he just ran through safety Jalen Thompson, bumping out to the flats late, in order to convert third-and-nine. And then when they got to third-and-five next, the veteran RB was wide open again for a touchdown, as the defense got run off with a simple double-slants concept. That put New York up by a couple of TDs, before, on their final drive, Cam Skattebo churned ahead to bleed out the clock, to go with a little quick throw over the middle to Isaiah Likely, creating hesitation with how they released him out of a stack, and a dumb facemask penalty for a free first down.

 

3. There’s still a lot of room for optimism with the Cowboys offense

Well, they went three-and-out to start the night. That was after the ball was re-spotted just short on a slant route to George Pickens. They had one drive stopped following a couple of first downs thanks to a Pickens drop/illegal shift, Dak Prescott threw a bad pick when he should’ve just chucked the ball out of bounds after escaping the pocket, and then they ran out the rest of the clock to end the first half. Prior to that, they strung together ten plays for 85 yards and a touchdown. And then following the break, they put together TD drives of 75 and 74 yards respectively. Unfortunately, they didn’t get the ball again in the second half, because their defense simply couldn’t get off the field. George had a couple of nice grabs, Ceedee Lamb looked healthy again, they didn’t have any explosives, but Dak spread the ball around pretty well, and Javonte Williams’ average looks worse based on needing a few extra attempts to punch it in at the goal-line. Not having standout guard Tyler Smith for a while hurts, but even with the Giants’ collection of first-round picks on the D-line disrupting plays early on with their quickness, they limited those guys to just one tackle for loss and no sacks. Obviously, there’s room upward, but if they get a few more possessions, I still like how Klayton Adams and Brian Schottenheimer can orchestrate for this group, although I’d like to see them push the ball down the field some more.

 

 

 Denver Broncos 10 : 31 Kansas City Chiefs 

 

1. Kenneth Walker III has completely shifted the identity of Kansas City’s offense

For as nervous as I was about the idea of an undrafted free agent rookie protecting the blindside of Patrick Mahomes coming off a torn ACL late last season, I had been talking about what a shift in mindset might look like, particularly after signing reigning Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker in free agency. Not only did Mahomes finish the first drive of the game with a couple of touchdown scrambles (with the first one nullified by penalty), but what they did on the ground otherwise couldn’t have looked a whole lot better. We see way more under center and condensed formations than in previous iterations of this offense, running power and other gap concepts. Walker was incredibly elusive, but also ran hard all game long. You constantly saw him slipping out of the grasp of would-be tacklers, stiff-arming guys, he did a great job hugging his blockers, to where defenders couldn’t get a clean shot on him, with tremendous start-stop movement skills and using balance touches. Early on, he set the tone by trucking a safety down in the box, and then what broke the game wide open was his 60-yard touchdown on a fourth-and-one to start the second half, where he decided to bounce an inside run with everything clogged up inside and broke a tackle down the sideline. And then he scored again on a fun design in the low red zone, where they brought in backup quarterback Justin Fields, aligned Walker as a wing-man and then basically ran a counter shovel pass with him, where he leaped across the goal line untouched, following his two pullers. KC’s 12.6 rushing EPA gained were by far the highest in the Andy Reid era, and Denver’s 249 allowed yards after missed tackles was the highest total since Next Gen Stats started tracking this in 2018.

 

2. We got some “Bad Bo” and an antsy Sean Payton

Back in 2019, when Bo Nix started his college career at Auburn, there used to be a weekly bit about if we’d get “Good Bo or Bad Bo” that day. He took massive strides after his transfer to Oregon, and after some shaky play early in his rookie season, he seemingly had established himself as a quarterback this Denver team can go deep in the playoffs with. In his first showing of 2026, he presented us with a lot of questions again. I know Chiefs DC Steve Spagnuolo was heating him up with aggressive calls for most of the night, but Bo was just nervous and sped up in his process. He was either drifting backwards or releasing the ball with his feet cock-eyed on way too many occasions, leading to the ball nose-diving short of his targets. On multiple occasions, he either actually lost the ball or it looked like he was about to, double- and triple-clutching. That included him basically hitting his hand against a defender racing up towards the sideline, where he got lucky that the ball was declared dead as that guy’s foot was out of bounds when touching it, when the Chiefs were about to scoop it. Overall, he went two-of-ten passing for five yards when pressured. The Broncos finished dead-last in EPA per play offensively for the week (-0.378), despite having the Falcons in a different matchup start their third quarterback and him throwing a touchdown the wrong way on a pick-six. Sean Payton had to hold his tongue when asked about how it felt to not call plays coming out of the locker room at halftime, and for as bad as the quarterback was – and their big trade prize Jaylen Waddle catching one of three targets for two yards certainly doesn’t help – it may not be long until he takes the reins off OC Davis Webb again.

 

3. This is a new-look Chiefs team, and they are coming back for their crown

I’ve been talking about how the Chiefs may look differently this season both schematically and personnel-wise. However, while I was very interested in what that shift towards being more run-centric might look like, in lieu of Patrick Mahomes’ recovery, and a Steve Spagnuolo defense with upgraded parts, the state of their offensive tackles made me predict them to just miss out on the playoffs at 9-8. The early returns of Andy Reid changing his stripes and finding some magic with a couple of new, fun designs again, are definitely encouraging. The one caveat here – Mahomes didn’t complete a pass beyond the sticks in the entire first half, and their success on the ground didn’t translate to opportunities they could capitalize on when using play-action. Pat had multiple misfires down the field, and other than a screen to Emmett Johnson, who immediately had to break a tackle, and the broken play to Travis Kelce, they didn’t have another completion longer than 13 yards. Defensively, Spags was able to return to his maniacal ways. On the very first snap, he called a double corner blitz against a condensed formation and got a sack. They were heating up Bo all night long, with more juice from their pass rush, and felt comfortable playing man coverage along with it, similar to what they looked like in the 2023/24 Super Bowl season, including L’Jarius Sneed being back, only in more of a slot-centric role. You could feel the physicality of last year’s third-round pick Nohl Williams on one side, including against the run, and this year’s sixth overall selection Mansoor Delane basically ran that first route on third down for Courtland Sutton, yet when he left with an injury after that, Kristian Fulton did an admirable job stepping in.