Draft week is here, as we’re only days away from Chicago Bears being officially put on the clock, and it’s time for me to reveal my final mock draft!
This is based on what I think will happen – which was as challenging as I can ever remember in a year, based on how much uncertainty we have near the top already – rather what I would do if I was running these 32 franchises.
Over the last six-and-a-half weeks, I’ve analyzed the skill-sets of the top ten draft prospects at each position in detail. Now it’s time to put it all together and present my personal big board – numbers one through 100, plus the next 30 names. The way to look at this is thinking of me as a scout for the generic 33rd NFL team, without taking needs and preferences for the franchise into account.
In retrospect, we already knew wide receiver would be insanely deep, illustrated by 17 guys making the cut, but the counterpart group of the cornerback doesn’t finish too far behind with 13 names on here. Meanwhile, running backs and tight-ends are the least-represented groups, with only five guys each. The quarterbacks have driven the conversation throughout the pre-draft process, but you’ll see here shortly that I’m not as high on the group past the top two names as the general consensus.
Keep in mind, I noted injury or off-field concerns with a star (*) and depending on how well I could actually judge how they should impact rankings, I took them into account. The one prospect I excluded here was Texas interior D-lineman T’Vondre Sweat, who we aren’t sure about exactly what the arrest for DWI means for his draft stock.
This is how the board stacks up for me:
It’s time! We’ve broken down in detail the best prospects at every single position now and we close that series out with the quarterbacks. Not only are these of course the most important players on the field, but this is the toughest group to evaluate, because of the different offensive systems they operate in, how we don’t fully understand what their decision-making is based on, with different coaching points and paths to arrive at that point, what they mental make-up looks like, the importance of their supporting case and so many other factors. There I don’t claim to be perfect – like nobody is, especially when it comes to this position – but we steadily try to learn, as the requirements for playing under center at a high level continue to change.
Looking at this year’s class, I believe we have a guy at the top who should be the number one overall pick in basically any draft – at least since I started dabbling into scouting about nine years ago. I believe there’s only one other name worthy of being a top-five selection and he’s being completely overthought. Three more quarterbacks have top-50 grades for me, before we get into a couple of mid-day two options. There are two names I look at as high-floor players with the potential to start for a couple in the right situation, before we get into day three flyers with intriguing arm talent and/or athletic skills.
Here’s what the list looks like for me:
We’ve arrived at the final defensive edition of our positional draft breakdown series. Earlier this week, we discussed the tight-end class, so now it’s time to look at their counterpart – the safeties. With nickel being the most common personnel grouping these days, the body/player type you choose in the slot is crucial for how you can structure the rest of your defense, which I’ll reference the term “big nickel” for, meaning what on paper is a safety being put in that spot, whether that’s for matchup purposes or more importantly run defense on early downs in particular. The labels “strong” and “free safety” are inadequate for today’s game, since barely any teams use them in anymore. More common now is to split the field into boundary (short side) and field/wide side.
This safety group lacks big names at the top, where the two that were commonly found in way too early mock drafts have since slid down the board and it seems highly unlikely we’ll see one selected in the first round. I do still believe there is one that belongs in the early second range at least and this class is surprisingly deep I’d argue, where altogether I believe we see eight or nine taken on day two and then there’s a bunch of package/role players and designated special teamers with plenty of experience on defense, to some degree with pretty diverse roles.
Here’s how I have them stacked up:
In our first month of the positional draft breakdown series, we already discussed running backs, linebackers, wide receivers, cornerbacks, offensive tackles, edge defenders, interior offensive and defensive linemen. This week, we’ll be taking a look at the tight-ends and safeties, before we finish up with the long-awaited quarterback rankings.
This group is obviously headlined by a player who has dominated college football the last three years and has been destined to sit atop this list ever since he was a true freshman. After that, there’s another player who should be a top-50 pick. From that point onwards, these rankings can look a lot different depending on what you personally value and which type of player you’re looking for. I personally have three other names that belong inside the top-100, along with one more guy who could easily be up there with a clean medical bill. The depth in this class is certainly underwhelming however and I would think we’re looking at 15 or 16 total TEs drafted.
Since I mentioned it just now, these rankings are solely based on film analysis, without taking any injury or off-field concerns into account. And for the purposes of this exercises, a “Y” tight-end refers to a player playing on the ball next to the offensive tackle, an “F” is your more modern move option – which also includes big slot players – and an “H-back” or wing is someone lining up off the ball, either on the hip or just behind the tackle.
Let’s now get into it:
Finishing up our first month of positional draft rankings, we close the chapter on trench warriors with the interior D-line. This group includes all players on the defensive side of the ball lining up anywhere from a zero- to a four-/five-technique depending on your labelling, although it’s rare to find such a clearly defined alignment roles these days. Just for clarification on how I will reference them:
0 = head-up on the center, 1 or shade = shoulder of the center, 2i = inside shoulder of the guard, 2 = head-up on the guard, 3 = outside shoulder of the guard, 4i = inside shoulder of the tackle, 4/5 = head-up on the tackle
This is a group that includes two incredible prospects worthy of top-20 selections and between five and seven other names that should go on day two. You can find useful players after that, but there is certainly a drop-off and you’re looking at role players or unrefined projects.
Let’s get into the list now:
We’re about three weeks away from the 2024 NFL Draft and to complement all my positional rankings, I wanted to highlight some prospects that I haven’t gotten to yet or were outside the top-10/12 in their respective classes, who I believe are being undervalued on consensus boards and I wanted to plant my flag on as “my guys”.
Week two of the big men portion as part of this positional draft rankings series is here and we start on offense yet again! This group includes guards and centers, where I’ll specify which of the three interior spots I believe guys can plug into at the next level, as well as potentially kick out to tackle in a pinch for a few of them, and also explain which offensive systems they’d optimally fit with.
This group is not as strong at the top specifically as the offensive tackle class, but I think we have at least two names worthy of going in the first round and the other nine (including one name who just missed the cut) all deserve to go on day two. After that, the rest of the group understandably has some flaws but also intriguing features, such as athleticism, raw strength or other to build upon. Let me quickly mention that this analysis is purely based on film evaluation, since there’s a medical situation to pay attention to with numbers three and six.
We’ll dive into the list now:
Finishing up week three of your positional draft rankings, we switch back over to the defensive side of the ball, with the guys threatening the edge against the offensive tackles we discussed a few days ago. The NFL has evolved to a point where we can group them together as EDGEs rather than having to use traditional 3-4 outside linebacker and 4-3 defensive end designations, although I will describe which roles I believe these prospects can fit at the end of each paragraph, along with analyzing their strengths and weaknesses, plus in which range I’d personally value them. At this point, I also want to re-iterate that my rankings are based purely on tape evaluation, without information on potential medical or off-field concerns.
This class hasn’t been discussed a whole lot I’d say because we don’t have a headliner like Myles Garrett, one of the Bosa brothers or Chase Young at the top, but there’s still plenty to like. Personally, I believe you can make a case for any of the top three names as EDGE1, depending on which type of player you’re looking for and they’ll all be inside my top-15 overall prospects. I could see about nine or ten additional guys hear their names called on day two, although I don’t see as many intriguing developmental projects in the middle to late rounds as the OT class featured.
I want to note that typically, I have used two or three paragraphs – depending on position – to describe the positives for each position. In this case, I simply used “run defense” and “pass-rush” and added a short line about them dropping into coverage, if I thought it was fitting, since none of these guys were asked to do that 100+ in any season, as far I’m aware.
Here’s the list:
We talked about a lot flash with a tremendous wide receiver class last week and then while not as stacked with top-end talent, an incredibly deep cornerback group. Now, let’s transition to the trenches and start with the guys asked to block, so the quarterback can even get the ball out in the first place.
Although I don’t want to hype up all these positions, this is a strong stretch we’ve arrived at, because I would argue while we can discuss the order the two groups we just talked about plus offensive tackle are the top three classes overall. I have six names with legit first-round grades, about ten more who should go day two and then there are some very interesting developmental to take on shot rounds four through seven.
Three players who played tackle in college but will be part of my interior O-line rankings next week – Duke’s Graham Barton, Kansas’ Dominick Puni and TCU’s Brandon Coleman.
Here’s the list and I think we start off with a slight surprise for many people:
Halil's Real Footballtalk 