Once we get through the first four weeks of the NFL season, it’s always a good time to reflect on what every team has shown us so far and try to stack them up against each other. We’ve seen plenty of surprises – both in a positive and negative sense. Three undefeated squads remain, while five are still looking for their first victory.
As I always like to remind people – these are power *rankings* rather than standings. So you may find some teams with better records above those with lesser ones, and direct matchups aren’t viewed as the ultimate decisive factor, even if the two sides share the same record. The purpose here is to judge the quality of each team right now, instead of their resume through the first month, in the spirit of how many of the 31 other franchises I’d favor them over.
Let’s go through the list!
1. Kansas City Chiefs (4-0) 
The more things change, the more they stay the same. It feels like a long time at this point, but after being badly outmatched by the Eagles with a chance of finishing the first-ever three-peat in NFL history in the 2024/25 Super Bowl, it took one bad season for most people to write off the Chiefs – including me, to a certain degree. What I did highlight pretty much all offseason, and reiterated after getting our first look at them in week one, was how different they might look like on both sides of the ball. They’re averaging an NFL-best 5.5 yards per rush and have already doubled last year’s total of 20+ carries (six), with free agent running back Kenneth Walker completely transforming the offense and forcing 15(!) more missed tackles than any other NFL player through the first month (43). You can’t tell at all that Patrick Mahomes is coming off a torn ACL. And Steve Spagnuolo has the personnel again to smother opponents with man-coverageman coverage and timely blitzes. The two areas of concern – KC lost their top deep threat Tyquan Thornton after dislocating his ankle, and their defense hasn’t recorded a sack in either of the last two weeks.
2. San Francisco 49ers (4-0) 
Kyle Shanahan and his coaching staff deserve so much credit for once again keeping the ship afloat. They looked so much more ready in the season opener, thanks to the smarter travel plans, to drown their division rivals in the Rams. The offense ran circles around the Dolphins in week two. And never did it feel like they were truly in danger of giving away wins against the Cardinals or Broncos after that. Nobody’s playing the quarterback position at a more consistently high level than Brock Purdy right – both finding solutions in structure and creating out of the pocket. He’s in his own stratosphere in both expected points added (EPA) per dropback (0.504) and success rate (61.9%). Meanwhile, that first and only touchdown they surrendered to L.A. still remains the lone one their defense has given up in the first half of a game. They’ve been a very well-organized unit under DC Raheem Morris, with their linebackers just flying around. This is the number one team in total DVOA (54.8%). Unfortunately, there’s no denying that there’s a limit to how many injuries a team can handle. Brandin Cooks may start in three-WR sets for them just two weeks after signing there, and five of the nine D-linemen who made the initial 53-man roster are currently on IR/the PUP list.
3. Buffalo Bills (3-1) 
If the Bills manage to finish that game against the Patriots at home, they probably earn the number one spot for me. Allowing Drake Maye and company to kind of save their season, after having to come away with a weird -4 turnover differential game against the winless Chargers, does bump Buffalo down one spot. Having said that, they’re still as potent as any team in the AFC. We’ve seen the wild version of Josh Allen emerge again in the last two games, where he’s putting the ball at risk more, rather than simply playing in an audacious manner and hitting throws very few chosen ones have ever been capable of. Largely, he’s been an unstoppable force through the air and on the ground, contributing 13 touchdowns already, despite his new WR1 D.J. Moore missing about half the time. They’ve been the second-best offense on third down (53.3%), thanks in large part to staying ahead of the chains. Defensively, they’ve been a lot more susceptible, rotating corners and not really being more dynamic with how they bring pressure, as initially expected with Jim Leonhard taking over coordinator duties. Nonetheless, they had been able to close out opponents until this past Sunday, with Gregory Rosseau and Deone Walker ascending to new levels along that D-line.
4. Chicago Bears (3-1) 
I’ve been incredibly impressed with how the Bears have handled themselves up to this point. After standing above the ridicule I received last year when I projected them to finish as the number two overall seed, I actually was one of the few people suddenly trying to hit the brakes this offseason, based on my concerns around their defense, which looked almost entirely the same. They’ve allowed the third-highest yards per carry (4.9 YPC), and I don’t feel great about any of their guys isolated in coverage necessarily. However, they’ve applied pressure at a much more consistent rate this season compared to last, and have taken advantage of playing alongside their ball control offense. Speaking of that group, they’ve posted 136 more yards on the ground – so basically a full extra game – than any other team in the NFL, while they’ve now gotten more than competent play from three different quarterbacks. With what Caleb Williams presents from a scrambling capacity, to go with the high-level throws limited to him among that room, as they’re working to fully unlock Luther Burden III in Ben Johnson’s offense, they can beat just about anyone, because they’re capable of shifting gears. You can argue that the schedule has helped in that regard, but they’ve possessed the ball nearly four minutes longer (36:35) than any other team in the league.
5. Seattle Seahawks (3-1) 
The reigning champs have faced a pretty soft first month of their schedule, in retrospect. Drake Maye kind of handed them the win in the season kickoff game, Seattle’s defense just devoured the Cardinals in the second half after heading into the break with a 7-7 score, then they lost to the Marcus Mariota-led Commanders, before allowing the still winless Chargers to make a late run against them. Having said that, they did play with their backup quarterback for basically three full games themselves, and have taken care of business, other than an uncharacteristic close to that Washington matchup. Jaxon Smith-Njigba remains the game’s most un-coverable wide receiver, and hopefully they’ve figured out a plan for how to handle their backfield, with Emmanuel Wilson settling into the primary role this past week. Although their defense has been a little more vulnerable in these latter two games, this is still the number one unit in yards per play allowed (4.0 YPP), thanks to a front that can win back gaps in negative box counts and their guys in coverage looking as if they’re connected with a string by how they erase breathing room for opponents. Minnesota edges them in most categories, but Seattle outranks them in schedule-adjusted DVOA.
6. Jacksonville Jaguars (3-1) 
Similarly to Chicago, the infrastructure Liam Coen has built around his quarterback to succeed in, and the continued emergence of players like Parker Washington, Brenton Strange and Bhayshul Tuten, enable them to match scores with any other team in the league. We did see them shoot themselves in the foot last week, with deadly penalties taking away plays, and not always capitalizing on trips to the red zone, because it’s extremely well constructed and Trevor Lawrence showcases a tremendous level of competence. On the flipside, their defense is forcing opponents into being one-dimensional, surrendering an NFL-low 3.3 yards per rush, they consistently force takeaways with active eyes in zone coverage, and they find ways to hold opponents to field goal attempts when they get into scoring range, being responsible for the second-lowest red zone TD rate (28.6%). Travis Hunter becoming a difference-maker at corner with a focus on one side of the ball has worked out tremendously. And you combine that with a kicker who’s a threat from 70 yards out. The Jags lead the way with a +6 turnover differential, and only the 49ers have been better in terms of total DVOA (40.2%).
7. Baltimore Ravens (3-1) 
There’s a lot to like about the start to this season for Baltimore, with Zay Flowers averaging an absurd 6.29 yards per route, and being a questionable touchdown call on a sneak by Tyler Shough (even though he obviously got face-masked) away from a perfect record so far. Lamar Jackson just missed the second half of the Titans game this past Sunday with a likely ankle sprain, after putting his team up 24-3, before their opponents made a bit of a run at it. However, up to that point, you can make an argument that he’s looked as good as ever in that Declan Doyle offense, thanks to how deadly he is after turning his back to the defense off play-action and his superb ball placement. As I hinted at, even in a three-score win over the Colts in their season opener, their defense has problems going up against balanced offenses. They seemingly make at least one big play every week, but their pass rush hasn’t really heated up, with a quiet opening month from free agent Trey Hendrickson. This team drawing the most penalties through four games since 2000 as a franchise can’t be a continuous trend.
8. Minnesota Vikings (4-0) 
It may seem unfair to put five 3-1 teams over the undefeated Vikings, including the Bears, who they took down in Chicago back in week two. My response to that would be the fact that a fumble at the goal line and Caleb Williams getting hurt made the difference that day, in a rainstorm that played in their favor. Otherwise, they’ve faced the Packers, Bucs and Dolphins, who all find themselves outside the top 20 on this list, and the latter two have yet to win a game. That’s not to take away from their defense, in which Brian Flores has played a huge role as the aggressor, with an absurd 67.9% blitz rate through one month. No team creates free rushers at a higher rate, which manifests itself in holding opponents to the lowest third-down (22.6%) and red zone TD rate (18.2%), to go with ranking first in both EPA and success rate. On the contrary, they’re once again a clearly below-average rushing team, and Kyler Murray has not looked as if he can really help open up the offense otherwise. I still have hope that he can allow a healthy Justin Jefferson to take over games, but the quarterback looks antsy in the pocket. They’ve only produced one play of 40+ yards, but the every-down consistency is also lacking, ranking dead-last in success rate (34.4%) and yards per play (4.4 YPP).
9. Las Vegas Raiders (3-1) 
You can argue that there’s no such thing as a “great loss”. What the Raiders did against the Chiefs on Sunday comes about as close as possible, however. The two sides had gone blow for blow until Las Vegas fumbled on the kickoff with 3:21 left, when they could’ve gone down, controlling the clock and putting together a decisive touchdown drive potentially. Losing the turnover differential by two has dropped them to +4 for the season. Winning field position had been a major key to their 3-0 start previously, as they still lead the NFL by starting at their own 36.5-yard line, but that one play plummeted to below-average in the same metric for their opponents (29.0-yard line). Nonetheless, although a banged-up Ashton Jeanty has limited their efficiency on the ground, their offensive line has come off the ball with a completely different purpose, Brock Bowers has taken on the Jaxon Smith-Njigba role under Klint Kubiak as a movable weapon, and Kirk Cousins has operated the offense at a high level, from control at the line of scrimmage, management of the pocket and aggressive throws. Defensively, the free agency additions of Nakobe Dean and Quay Walker have really stabilized the second level, a couple of rookies have stepped up massively on the second level, and Rob Leonard has turned them into a much more cohesive unit overall.
10. Los Angeles Rams (2-2) 
Based on the resume the overwhelming pre-season Super Bowl favorites have put together through the first four weeks, it wouldn’t warrant sneaking into the top ten. For as much of their no-show performance against the 49ers in the season opener as you can blame on their travel schedules to Australia, and the fact they were up 16-0 at halftime against the Broncos, with a highly questionable pass interference call potentially deciding the game, this isn’t what anyone expected to see from them up to this point. After not getting onto the stat sheet in week one, Myles Garrett was placed on IR, while Aaron Donald and Puka Nacua have both only played half the games. On the field, their offensive tackles have been problematic, requiring frequent chip help, and Matthew Stafford actually has been credited with one more turnover-worthy play than big-time throws (eight vs. seven), according to Pro Football Focus. Reasons for optimism would be that they’ve been able to grind away games with their downhill run game typically, and that we haven’t yet seen their defense at full strength, while the additions at corner have looked very promising already, leading them to the second-lowest yards-per-play mark to only Seattle’s (4.2 YPP). On the contrary, they’re once again on pace for finishing dead-last in special teams DVOA.
11. Atlanta Falcons (2-2) 
You have to treat the last two weeks with Michael Penix Jr. as a different version of the Falcons than the first two, when their quarterback play was simply unbearable for the rest of the team. Since then, they’ve absolutely trashed their Packers and Saints at their places by a combined score of 80-to-38. Even with their slow start, when defenses were shifting all of their attention towards the best running back in the game – Bijan Robinson – they rank second in both EPA and success rate running the ball. Yet, over the last two weeks, they’ve also posted the top marks in both those categories when dropping back. Drake London has just eaten on speed outs vs. off coverage, with the threat of running double-moves providing him that cushion. On the flipside, their defense was dragged down by how much they had to be on the field early on. However, they’ve been the top defense against the run, according to EPA per play (-0.307) and yards per rush (2.8 YPC), thanks in part to having trust in their secondary to survive in a bunch of single-high looks. While they may not have one difference-making pass-rusher necessarily, DC Jeff Ulbrich has found ways to overload and confuse protections, allowing four of their players to record at least 14 pressures so far.
12. Dallas Cowboys (2-2) 
It’s tough to find a definitive landing spot for “America’s Team”, because they’re capable of outscoring just about anyone, but they also can’t afford to not put points on the board every time they’re out there. Their offense ranks top four in both EPA per play (0.196) and success rate (48.9%), displaying excellent balance to take advantage of where opponents are vulnerable. And they’ve scored on an NFL-best 61.1% of their drives – 8.5% higher than any other team. Dak Prescott has looked like a supercomputer with his ability to solve problems defenses present, CeeDee Lamb constantly finds space to attack, and they’ve run the ball pretty efficiently, with Javonte Williams consistently finishing strong. Yet, their defense sits at 31st in both those categories I mentioned defensively, as well as dead-last in yards per play allowed (6.4 YPP). There have been sporadic moments of creating short-yardage stops and Quinnen Williams being disruptive on the interior, but we’ve also seen way too many missed assignments, a lack of consistent pressure on quarterbacks, and individual lowlights in isolated coverage situations. Hopefully for them, a couple of promising rookies and the rest of that unit come together once they’re more than a month in this new system under DC Christian Parker.
13. Denver Broncos (2-2) 
The Broncos are another team where I struggle to find the appropriate landing spot for. Bo Nix refuses to play the quarterback position in an ambitious manner for the better part of three quarters, but then has shown that he’s capable of turning it on late. The offensive gameplans further encourage that, with how many screens they run, the lack of early down rushing success rate (30.0% on first and second down combined), and all the designed rollouts/bootlegs to throw the ball short of the sticks. Outside of game two, they haven’t really weaponized what Jaylen Waddle can do in order to lift the ceiling of this group, and Sean Payton taking back over play-calling duties from Davis Webb continues to linger over them. Defensively, Vance Joseph never shies away from forcing the issues by firing people downhill, and they can make those game-changing plays, such as Talanoa Hufanga collecting a pick-six and the game-sealing interception against the Rams. However, they’ve taken a massive step backwards on third downs, ranking 27th in conversion rate allowed (47.5%). Although this number is heavily influenced by a horrible week one showing against Kenneth Walker and the Chiefs, Denver has missed an NFL-high 38 tackles so far this season. And consequently, they find themselves in less obvious dropback situations.
14. Carolina Panthers (2-2) 
Sitting here with a .500 record truly is an achievement thanks to their quarterback stepping up and the coaching staff getting everyone ready with that “next man up” mentality. This past Monday night, they were without three of their top four WRs during training camp – while Tetairoa McMillan put together a career performance – and both starting corners. Yet, they were able to come out on top in a shootout against the Lions. Bryce Young has found a level of confidence and fun in the game that we haven’t seen since his days at Alabama. He currently leads the NFL with 317.0 passing yards per game, he‘s been able to escape muddy pockets routinely, and has delivered eight big-time throws compared to just one turnover-worthy play. For as impactful as Devin Lloyd has been, carrying over the ball magnet qualities that elevated him in his final season in Jacksonville, pre-existing injuries along their defensive front have definitely hurt Carolina. Although heavily influenced by an abysmal showing against Chicago in week one, no unit has allowed a higher per-carry average than them (5.4 YPC). One other concern – Kicker Ryan Fitzgerald has converted all nine of his field goal attempts, but he’s already missed three (of 13 possible) extra points. Since they need all the points they can get, they may have to start going for two if that trend continues.
15. Cleveland Browns (3-1) 
After they put up a clunker in a week one, with the Jaguars already up 24-nothing at halftime, probably nobody believed that Cleveland would go on to win their next three. Important to note in their turnaround to me – you don’t have to make this feel-good story about Deshaun Watson getting redemption to any degree. They’ve won with (rather than despite or because of) him, thanks to how a bunch of their young players have come along. Denzel Boston has been as good as any rookie receiver so far, and for their almost entirely newly formed offensive line to be about league-average is much better than they could’ve anticipated. Meanwhile, their defense has also benefitted from the development of last year’s fifth overall pick Mason Graham as a penetrating D-tackle, Quincy Williams giving them a second missile attacking downhill at linebacker, and Denzel Ward re-emerging as a true CB1. Only the Seahawks have posted more tackles for loss as a team than the Browns (24), and they have yet to allow opponents to convert a fourth down (on four attempts) or score a touchdown on the ground against them. Additionally, Andre Szmyt has yet to miss any of his 15 total kicks, including a walk-off game-winner from 56 yards out last Thursday night.
16. New York Giants (3-1) 
When you lose your starting quarterback on the opening drive of your second game and your sack leader from a year ago a week later (Brian Burns), your season is typically doomed – yet here the Giants sit atop the NFC East somehow. Now, I’d be very surprised if they can hold the fort, but they at least have some legit difference-makers emerging, and clearly their three division rivals are heavily flawed themselves. Malik Nabers has the capacity to blow up any given week if provided appropriate ball-placement, Jevon Holland individually has been involved in more takeaways than any other defender in the league (six), and rookie linebacker Arvell Reese Jr. has been attacking the ball like a maniac. On the negative side, how Jameis Winston plays quarterback invites a high level of volatility, and for as talented as their young defensive line is on paper, they rank dead-last with only three sacks on the season. Nonetheless, in what I labelled the HRF.com statistic – their average starting position on drives compared to their opponents – the Raiders are the only team to have a better margin up to this point, at +6.7 yards in favor of the Giants. Only the Vikings have been better in special teams DVOA, and although there’s quite a drastic gap between them, only Chicago has averaged a higher time of possession (32:41).
17. New England Patriots (2-2) 
It was so good to see Drake Maye bounce back in a major way and lead the Pats to a somewhat season-saving win at Buffalo, at least as it pertains to their chances of repeating as AFC East champs. He still puts the ball at risk more than you’d like to see, by holding onto it in crumbling pockets, being less decisive, and some of the mechanical regression we’ve seen from him as a thrower. However, he’s received very little help from his receivers working back for the ball or simply not dropping it, depending on your source, he’s been pressured at the third- or sixth-highest rate (42.4 to 44.3%), and they’re literally tied with the previously mentioned Broncos in their rushing success rate on first and second down combined (30.0%). Overall, they‘ve turned the ball over on an NFL-high 24.4% of their drives, while having scored on the second-lowest rate (26.8%), only to the Titans. A.J. Brown hopefully being back in week six couldn’t come at a better time. On the bright side, their defense ranks seventh in DVOA, which takes into account the fact that their opponents have combined for an 11-5 record up to this point. The football IQ across their secondary has been apparent, rookie Gabe Jacas has already made an early impact, and Zak Kuhr has been able to scheme up a free rusher a couple of times every game.
18. Cincinnati Bengals (2-2) 
Although losing Ja’Marr Chase early on in the game, because a defender basically tried to rip his head off, changed the complexity of the matchup, Jacksonville provided them ample opportunities to swing things back in their favor. Following the first 2-0 start of Joe Burrow’s career, they got sliced up by Aaron Rodgers and the zombie Steelers, days after I posted a video of me calling them the “saddest offense in the NFL“, and now they lost in a matchup where they out-gained their opponents by over 100 yards, who also were penalized 13 times for 125 yards. Joe Burrow’s reputation for late-game heroics exceeds reality at this point, and they still haven’t found enough balance offensively, as one of only two teams with less than 300 yards on the ground. Meanwhile, their defensive line clearly is more capable of taking over moments than previously, with Dexter Lawrence once again looking like one of the premier nose-tackles in the league and a collection of young edge rushers fitting well into their roles. They’re tied for third with 14 sacks on the year. However, their entire back-seven has been pretty susceptible through the air, routinely finding themselves out of position and chasing after the ball. No other team has allowed more yards after the catch through four weeks (464).
19. Detroit Lions (2-2) 
It’s the Cowboys and Lions as the two most one-sided teams across the league, where the offense can keep up scoring with just about anyone, but they rarely are able to get off the field defensively. I’d argue that they’ve been even more concerning to watch, considering they, in theory, have continuity, with their coordinator in year two since being elevated from position coach status, and seven of 11 starters having been on the roster in 2025 already. Missing their starting safety tandem is felt majorly in their communication, but they simply can’t be as reliant on man coverage with the guys at their disposal. Detroit ranks dead-last in EPA per play defensively (0.208), and they’re the only team to give up over a field goal on average per drive (3.12 points). Plus, they’re either last or second-to-last on third-down, fourth-down and red zone efficiency surrendered. Their one glimmer of hope on that side of the ball – no other team has missed fewer tackles (five) on the year. Jahmyr Gibbs remains as one of the top three RBs in the sport, showing that he can handle a heavier workload, they’re as dangerous as any offense when they get five guys out in pattern, with Jameson Williams nearly matching his previous season output this past Sunday night (102 yards), and they’ve only turned the ball over once so far. I need to see some funky pressures and one-off gameplans by DC Kelvin Sheppard to at least get the ball back for their attack once a game going forward.
20. Indianapolis Colts (2-2) 
It was looking pretty bleak for the Colts after losing by 18 points to the Ravens at home, and then coming up short in overtime at Kansas City – a game defined by being (too) conservative after their owner just re-iterated that the urgency has never been higher for both their head coach and general manager, whose seats were already heating up before the season even started. Even though the Texans and Commanders have combined for just one win, driving down the field against Will Anderson Jr. and company for a game-winning kick, and taking over after a slow first half in London this past weekend, has at least bought them some time. And I’d argue there are some redeeming qualities with this team. They can run the ball effectively, and their defense is able to get off the field in key situations, for the most part. Indianapolis leads the league in EPA per rush offensively (0.121), and they’re one of only four defenses to allow opponents to convert less than 30% of third-down attempts against them (29.2%). Second-year nickelback Justin Walley has steadily improved after getting toasted by Zay Flowers and company in week one, allowing them to leverage on the best corner trios in the NFL – although I’d say they’ve leaned too far into man coverage – while DeForest Buckner has looked like one of the most dominant forces on the interior D-line. They’ve posted the best net penalty on the season (+165). Yet, something they’ll need to change – the Colts rank dead-last with a -6 turnover differential on the season.
21. Green Bay Packers (2-2) 
Although they rank above a couple of others, I can make a compelling case that the Packers have been the least impressive 2-2 team in the NFL. They were down by ten in the fourth quarter against the Jets, and allowed the Bucs – led by undrafted rookie QB Jalon Daniels – to come just a few yards short of a potential game-tying field goal at the end. Meanwhile, the Carson Wentz-led Vikings and Falcons outscored them by 38 points in their two losses. Coming into the season, I was concerned about the offense being without Josh Jacobs as their steady drumbeat on the ground, and Micah Parsons as by far their biggest difference-maker on defense. So far, they’re last by a considerable margin in EPA per rush (-0.406). As a result, they’ve found themselves behind the sticks routinely and then converted 5% less of their third-down attempts than any other team in the league (26.1%). Defensively, you’ve definitely felt the lack of that alpha pass-rusher, with Lukas Van Ness as the only player to register double-digit pressures. And they can’t keep opponents out of the end zone, allowing an NFL-high 85.7% of red zone trips to end in six points. Only the Titans have posted a worse time-of-possession average through one month (26:14), and they have the most penalty yards against them (344). The few rays of light here – Micah is at least eligible to return now, and their young WR duo of Christian Watson and Matthew Golden has stood out.
22. New Orleans Saints (1-3) 
Even with the caveat of missing a pair of key members of their front-seven, what Brandon Staley and his defense put on display this past Monday night is simply unacceptable – they appeared utterly helpless against their bitter division rivals in the Falcons. Chase Young has truly resurrected his career in New Orleans, but they can’t rely on anyone else providing pressure on quarterbacks with any regularity, and you feel the attrition of losing homegrown players in the secondary to free agency each of the last few years. As a result, they‘ve now fallen to the bottom of the league in success rate allowed defensively (52.5%), with almost an identical number against the run and pass. On the flipside, they’re simply a one-dimensional offense. If you take out what Tyler Shough has contributed as a runner himself, they’ve turned 83 carries into just 282 yards (3.4 YPC). The second-year QB has impressed in an offense that puts a lot of his shoulder operationally, with Chris Olave doing plenty of damage in the intermediate and deep range, averaging a stellar 14.2 yards on targets of 10+ air yards. In particular, they’ve been tremendous situationally, as they’re one of only four teams that have converted 50+% of third downs and turned 80+% of red zone trips into touchdowns, along with having moved the chains more than anyone on fourth down (seven of eight attempts).
23. Philadelphia Eagles (2-2) 
We’ll close out the third quarter of this ranking with a couple of Pennsylvania teams that have been defined by very uninspiring offenses. The Eagles rank 29th and 30th respectively in EPA per play and success rate. There are several reasons for it – the offensive line simply isn’t the same anymore and now aren’t only banged up but just got the news that Hall of Fame right tackle Lane Johnson is retiring, Saquon Barkley has left a couple of games in the first quarter with bruises, Jalen Hurts has held onto the ball too long despite dropping his eyes onto the rush a lot, and the marriage with new OC Sean Mannion hasn’t delivered at all what was promised, whether in terms of attacking the middle of the field or going to more classic play-action, where Hurts is dead-last among starters in his rate of such dropbacks (15.1%). Defensively, I still believe Vic Fangio can turn that unit around. They just picked off the reigning league MVP Matthew Stafford twice on Sunday, and if you at least now have Jonathan Greenard paired with Nolan Smith for primary passing downs, they can provide more pressure off the edge. Unfortunately, those were their only takeaways on the season, they’ve allowed over 100 yards on the ground every week, and up to this point, they’ve been tied for the third-worst time-to-pressure (2.85 seconds). Hopefully getting a lot of their main contributors back healthy will be critical in turning things around, in a still very winnable division.
24. Pittsburgh Steelers (2-2) 
Two weeks ago, I published that video on the Steelers offense, where I criticized their unimaginative run game, the lack of marriage to their play-action calls, an overreliance on basic West Coast dropback concepts, Aaron Rodgers being more performative with the eventual deep shot to isolated receivers, and some protection issues sprinkled in. For the Bengals game, they swapped out Dylan Cook for rookie Max Iheanachor at right tackle, which I also called for and immediately paid dividends, but more importantly, just had receivers running freely, thanks to several Cincinnati coverage busts. This past Thursday Night, they sort of settled in between those performances, and I have hope that they can at least be closer to average, if they can lean more into Jaylen Warren on the ground. Unfortunately, their defense has now given up exactly 27 points in back-to-back games, and by trading away Joey Porter Jr. – another homegrown player they’ve been uncomfortable with paying – they’re acknowledging that they’re simply not going to really play man coverage, which limits what they can lean into, at least. With that being said, T.J. Watt has made game-changing plays pretty much every week, with exactly two takeaways in each of those, and their two losses have come by three points each.
25. New York Jets (1-3) 
I’m not sure if I’ve ever seen one team in the NFL have more first downs (34) than the other one ran total plays (32), but the Jets just found themselves on the wrong end of that equation against the Bears, who were starting their third different quarterback in as many weeks. Funnily enough, this was when they finally got their first interception in 20 games, but even then they had three more wiped out by penalty (although Tyson Bagent at least took a shot on purpose after drawing the defense offside on one of those). Although they’ve allowed opponents to put together extended drives, they’ve at least limited explosive plays of 20+ yards (ten), explaining the gap between success rate (30th) and EPA per play (18th league-wide). Even though they still haven’t benefitted from many turnovers in their favor, they’ve only given the ball away once themselves through four games. Geno Smith has very quietly not thrown a pick yet, while leading the league with a completion rate of 72.6%, despite delivering plenty of confident strikes down the field. He’s protected by an above-average offensive line, and when they get Breece Hall back in the lineup, this is a pretty exciting collection of skill-position players, with the flashes rookie TE Kenyon Sadiq has shown.
26. Houston Texans (0-4) 
Considering how badly C.J. Stroud ended last season, it’s sort of ironic that he’s now become the first quarterback in NFL history to lead a team to an 0-4 record despite not having thrown an interception. The whole plan of what they did this offseason was to take pressure off their quarterback by rebuilding the offensive line and stabilizing the run game, with the addition of veteran RB David Montgomery. Well, the Texans are the only offense with a rushing success rate below 30%, and after the mirage of his three-touchdown debut, Monty has averaged just under 2.5 yards per carry. Getting Nico Collins back in the lineup last week was massive for them, as he immediately went for 118 yards and a couple of touchdowns, proving how pivotal he is for their success. Unfortunately, the defense has given up ten more points per game so far than they did in 2025 (27.3 PPG). They’ve actually surrendered just 3.4 yards per rush (fourth-lowest in the NFL), but they’ve been much more vulnerable through the air. What we celebrated them for last year, being very simple in terms of rushing four and playing a few coverages behind it, dependent on down and distance, is now coming back to bite them. Otherwise, Ceedee Lamb wouldn’t be catching 17 of 21(!) targets, as opponents can avoid testing their corners one-on-one and find the openings they present, even with Will Anderson Jr. looking like the best defender in the sport.
27. Arizona Cardinals (1-3) 
The temperature around the Cardinals has certainly changed since they beat the Chargers on the road in week one, with how bad L.A. has looked like across this first month. The biggest indicator of the difference in quality to the three opponents they’ve faced since is the differential in net yards per pass attempt. While they’re second-to-last in that regard offensively (4.9 NY/A), they’re on par with the Cowboys defense for the highest number surrendered (8.0). That three(+)-yard difference every time either side drops back is disappointing considering the quality of their pass-catchers on paper, combined with the confidence they’ve expressed in their young collection of defensive backs. Cornerback Will Johnson potentially being ruled out for most of his second season as well hurts big-time. The gap on the ground is far more negligible (0.3 yards), but you would’ve wished third overall pick Jeremiyah Love would have provided at least one play of 20+ yards up to this point – and now his *other* ankle appears banged up, compared to what was bothering him coming out of preseason. Arizona has been competitive every week, other than when the Seahawks pulled away from them in the second half of that contest, but it’s been tough slugging for the most part.
28. Washington Commanders (1-3) 
It may seem unfair to put Washington below an 0-4 team (Texans), but considering the state of their roster currently, it’s tough to believe in them being competitive against any team in the upper half of this list. Despite an abysmal offensive showing from the Colts in the first half of their matchup in London, the Commanders ended up losing by 17 points. We may look back at their one win at Seattle up to this point as one of the biggest outlier results of the season. I guess Jayden Daniels will return to practice with a club on his arm, after dislocating it *again* in week two, but right now it appears that Athan Kaliakmanis is the likely starter at quarterback, with Sam Cosmi taking on friendly fire in that loss to the Cowboys, they’re without their two best offensive linemen they were slated to start before the season, and Austin Ekeler was just playing meaningful snaps at running back for them, just days after coming off his couch. New defensive coordinator Daronte Jones has carried over the aggressive mentality that was instilled in him by Todd Bowles, as he ranks behind only his mentor (although by a considerable margin) for the second-highest blitz rate (44.4%). Amik Robertson and Rasul Douglas have paid off as low-budget free agents, but the four next-closest members of their secondary have all been responsible for passer ratings of 118.8 or worse. The one saving grace has been spectacular rookie linebacker Sonny Styles, who already appears fully in charge as their green dot player and has made his presence felt by flying around the field.
29. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-4) 
I have three other winless teams (and one 1-3 squad) below the Bucs, because at least all four of their games were one-score affairs, across which they had a chance to put together a game-winning drive at the end of the latter three. Considering their offensive line was pretty universally viewed as one of the best across the NFL and they handed Baker Mayfield 165 million dollars over the next three years at the eve of this season, their output through one month is simply unacceptable. They rank dead-last in EPA per play offensively (-0.159), and they’re the only team to simultaneously average under four yards per rush as well as under five net yards per pass. Baker’s play has been highly erratic on all accounts, despite allowing franchise legend Mike Evans to walk in free agency, their new OC Zac Robinson has not found ways to feature Emeka Egbuka, who has only caught 15 passes so far, and they’re one off the season-high for giveaways (nine). Looking at the construction of their defense, they actually have the second-lowest time-to-pressure in the NFL (2.48 seconds), but they only register a pressure on the fifth-lowest rate (30.7%), according to Next Gen Stats – which speaks to their all-or-nothing nature of sending the blitz under Todd Bowles. For the most part, opposing quarterbacks have been able to find those voided spaces that opens up, although they’ve remained steady against the run, at just 3.2 yards per carry (second-best in the NFL).
30. Tennessee Titans (0-4) 
The Titans aren’t horrible. Losing by 13 to the Jets in the season opener was. Since then, they’ve either lost on the final drive or had a chance to win it at the end. Lamar Jackson getting hurt for Baltimore when the score was still 24-7, certainly helped Tennessee rally in the second half, but at least they didn’t allow “King Henry” to embarrass them in his return to Nashville. While they’ve struggled to get to the passer, their defensive front has generally done well to stop the run, ranking top ten in rushing success rate responsible for (37.3%). Fifth overall pick Carnell Tate more than doubling his previous season output with 145 receiving yards was incredibly meaningful, while second-rounder Anthony Hill Jr. has been all over the field, ranking third in total tackles across the entire league. Their biggest positive on defense overall – they’ve surrendered 57 yards fewer than any other team after the catch. So they’re really good at rallying and tackling. Unfortunately, they’re the only unit with a time to pressure above three seconds (3.04), and once everyone on the back-end has been forced to relate to routes, those shell coverages become vulnerable. Of course, for the couple of cool plays Cam Ward has provided out of structure, his inability to operate on time from the pocket, remains the biggest concern for their franchise. Altogether, their time of possession up to this point (24:18) is nearly two minutes shorter than any other team in the league.
31. Los Angeles Chargers (0-4) 
Putting the Chargers ahead of only the Dolphins may seem a bit drastic, considering I projected them to win 11 games this season. Rather than getting hung up on my previous biases, I’m willing to embrace new information and evaluate what they’ve actually shown us on the field, however. Their total DVOA coincides with this ranking exactly (-32.2%), according to which they’re shockingly at the very bottom of the league on offense in particular. Although once again being pressured at the highest rate in the league (43.8%) – if you exclude Jameis Winston’s limited sample size – certainly doesn’t help, Justin Herbert hasn‘t lived up to his usual standard, displaying sub-par ball-placement and questionable decision-making. L.A. is tied for an NFL-high ten giveaways. And Mike McDaniel’s run game hasn’t provided significant relief either, with a full-blown committee approach now rather than Omarion Hampton having the projected breakout sophomore campaign. At the same time, the defense has taken a noteworthy step back with the transition from Jesse Minter to Chris O’Leary calling plays. There’s a lot more air within their coverages, and they’ve been hit with 71 more penalty yards on that side of the ball than the other unit (391). This simply isn’t a well-coached team right now, and they’re one of the rare cases in which a group ranks worst in their own starting position (26.2-yard line) and where opponents’ drives begin (39.0-yard line).
32. Miami Dolphins (0-4) 
It’s not for a lack of contenders, if it were most other years, but it was pretty easy to lock in the team at the bottom of the list, and then fill in the rest from there. Miami ranks dead-last in DVOA as a team (-44.9%), and their point differential is 16 worse than anyone else (-55). Their skill position group was already in question before the season started, with a couple of day-two rookie receivers slated to start, and then De’Von Achane tore his ACL shortly into week three. Therefore, it’s tough to truly evaluate Malik Willis in his first chance as a full-time starter, although turning the ball over four times compared to only contributing two touchdowns isn’t a positive early sign. They’ve been the worst offense at turning red zone possessions into touchdowns (33.3%), and for constantly playing from behind, they’ve only picked up one (of six potential) fourth downs. Defensively, there’s at least one ray of sunlight – rookie linebacker Jacob Rodriguez has continued his dominant run as a Heisman finalist at Texas Tech a year ago, having posted six more “defensive stops“ than any other player in the entire NFL, and has already recorded an interception. And after going sack-less through the first three games, they collected four on Sunday at Minnesota. For a team paying one-and-a-half times as much in dead cap (184 million dollars) as any other team in the league, the product on the field overall shouldn’t be shocking to anyone.
