I forgot to post this here last week already – so please bear in mind that the numbers are now slightly different!
Even though the NFL is headlined by superstar players, often times it’s the guys who don’t get talked about a whole lot that make a big difference for their team. So I decided to highlight three names on offense and defense each, to give them they attention they deserve!
The Myles Garrett vs. T.J. Watt debate has long ongoing with passionate supporters on either side of it. Both have consistently been front-runners for Defensive Player of the Year honors and terrorized opposing quarterbacks. But who’s EDGE1 right now?
Over the last two drafts, ten quarterbacks were selected within the first 33 picks respectively and now that all but one of them have logged double-digit starts, I thought it was time to review what they’ve shown. I will provide my general thoughts, aided by some advanced metrics, and express my level of confidence in their long-time viability at the pro level.
Just to be clear, I won’t be discussing this year’s eighth and eighth overall selections Michael Penix Jr. (Falcons) and J.J. McCarthy (Vikings), who only saw very limited action in mop-up duty and unfortunately got hurt after a promising preseason showing respectively. Therefore, we’ll be looking at four guys from each of those draft classes.
Let’s dive in, going by chronological order of when they got selected:
Following two 4-13 seasons and another slow start this year, the Arizona Cardinals have now won four straight games and sit atop the NFC West by half a game, with a manageable schedule the rest of the way. I’ll break down what they do schematically on offense and defense, along with how a bunch of their young players have stepped up!
We’ve arrived at the mid-way point of the 2024 NFL season. Unlike most people, who still use week eight as the timestamp for that description, I think it should be pretty clear now that this is actually the exact moment to reflect with half of the 18 weeks down. Of course, only about half the league has had their bye weeks so far, so I will use per-game statistics rather than bring up total numbers for the most part, in order to be able to compare players more practically.
Just like I did in my full-season predictions, I’ll lay out the case for the top three candidates for each major AP NFL award. Then I also added my first- and second-team All-Pro teams if the year ended today, without further comment, since I will have discussed a large portion of the players listed and it would exceed the breadth of the exercise. Unfortunately, I had to exclude names like Aidan Hutchinson and Chris Godwin due to injuries.
Let’s get into it:
Unlike most weeks where one topic jumps out to me for a video or article I want to write or even there’s a point in the season where it makes sense to do power rankings or mid-season awards, there were several ways I considered going here. However, as I looked a broader view at the NFL landscape, my one grand thought I came away with is the state of affairs for the teams at the bottom of the standings and their gap to the rest of the league. In large part because I currently don’t see a path where those franchise massively turn things around and I don’t want to ignore them until draft season rolls around.
With some teams having already had a bye week, I didn’t want the cut-off to be two wins, but rather I chose to go with the nine squads at least three games below .500 – meaning 2-5 or worse. That also made sense considering the two teams that criteria excludes are the 2-4 Rams and Dolphins, whose campaigns have been heavily affected by injuries and still have some hope to turn things around.
To illustrate that rift between the franchises in question and those in legitimate position to compete for playoff spots ultimately, here’s a number to consider – and I understand of course that it has to exist for this make sense mathematically – but the nine teams I’m about to discuss have an average point differential of -53.1 for the year, meaning the median outcome for them every week is pretty much losing by just over a touchdown. I did not go back to recent years to really dive into how this stacks up, but it feels like quite an extreme line of demarcation – and that calculation includes the Saints’ clearly unsustainable start, where they led the league with a +62 point differential through the first two weeks.
So this isn’t meant to be a way for me to trash the bottom-third of the league, but rather trying take a step back and reflect on how we got here, by going through these teams. And maybe give an outlook for the near future, as we think about how things could be course-corrected.
We’ll go by record first and then alphabetical order:
After focusing on the top quarterback plays last week, I decided to flip things around and highlight some of my favorite defensive moments from this past week!
We’ll go through the play-calls on both sides, discussing the rules/assignments for the individual pieces and how they ended up working in concert to win those downs as a unit!
Coming off an incredible week of football, with several great quarterback performances and individual plays, I wanted to break down what I deemed the best or at least my favorite throws/QB plays of week 5!
I’ll break down the schematics on offense and defense, how quarterbacks deciphered through those situations and how we ended up with these incredible throws.
We’re a month into the NFL season and as always for me, this is the first time to take the temperature of the league, stacking up all 32 teams against one another. Records are obviously the biggest indicator, but especially with how the early season has played out, I think there’s quite a significant discrepancy between the quality of team and the first number next to their name in several cases.
Whenever I post any list like this, I like to remind people that these are power “rankings” rather than standings – anybody can simply look those up themselves and I did add records next to each squad. However, you will see groups with slightly worse records placed above others, who may have benefitted from a weaker schedule so far or just weren’t as impressive to me in the way they were able to emerge victorious. The same is true for one side outranking another, who they might’ve lost to already, since this is intended to be a placement based on how many sides everybody should be favored against at this moment, rather than one specific matchup.
Let’s get to it:
We’re four weeks into this collegiate season and it’s time for me to give my annual check-in on who the best players in the nation are currently. My rankings are largely based on the film work I did partially during this prior draft cycle for returning names and studying up during the summer, but also catching up on them in the early stages here. Obviously, I haven’t watched every single FBS game, but a large portion of those, I went through a bunch of the advanced numbers and tried to at least evaluate each of these (and other) guys in one more matchup so far.
Just to clarify, these rankings are concerning the top five players at each position for the college level – so how well they’re performing at right now and how I’d pick them in a team selection-like setting, somewhat detached from their surrounding pieces, as I’m trying to judge them individually. There’s a lot of overlap to how I’d stack the names up projecting forward to next year’s draft already (at least for the guys who are eligible), but I wanted to make that distinction here.
Let’s get into it:
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