We’ve arrived at the final defensive edition of our positional draft breakdown series. Earlier this week, we discussed the tight-end class, so now it’s time to look at their counterpart – the safeties. With nickel being the most common personnel grouping these days, the body/player type you choose in the slot is crucial for how you can structure the rest of your defense, which I’ll reference the term “big nickel” for, meaning what on paper is a safety being put in that spot, whether that’s for matchup purposes or more importantly run defense on early downs in particular. The labels “strong” and “free safety” are inadequate for today’s game, since barely any teams use them in anymore. More common now is to split the field into boundary (short side) and field/wide side.
This safety group lacks big names at the top, where the two that were commonly found in way too early mock drafts have since slid down the board and it seems highly unlikely we’ll see one selected in the first round. I do still believe there is one that belongs in the early second range at least and this class is surprisingly deep I’d argue, where altogether I believe we see eight or nine taken on day two and then there’s a bunch of package/role players and designated special teamers with plenty of experience on defense, to some degree with pretty diverse roles.
Here’s how I have them stacked up:
1. Tyler Nubin, Minnesota
6’1”, 205 pounds; RS SR
A four-star recruit in 2019, Nubin appeared sparingly in 12 games as a true freshman, recording six tackles and two pass break-ups. After playing more regularly in year two, recording 41 stops along with his first interception and fumble forced, he became a starter in 2021. Over the following two seasons, he combined for 105 tackles, seven INTs and five PBUs. As a redshirt senior, he picked off five passes and broke up another four, while putting up almost identical tackling numbers, which earned him first-team All-Big Ten and second-team All-American recognition.
Run defense & blitzing:
+ Well-proportioned frame with broad jump and a physical play style to match
+ Urgently approaches the line of scrimmage from two-high alignments and creates plenty of stops for little yardage in the run game
+ Tracks the ball and adjusts his angles on the fly tremendously well from center-field alignments
+ Makes sure the ball-carrier needs to actively go around or through him as the last line of defense
+ When he’s lined up in the box and becomes responsible for a gap, he’s quick to fill and drop the shoulder on a tight-end/H-back wrapping around
+ Is aware of offenses creating a +1 in blocking count and when he needs to be more aggressive with involving himself in the fit
+ Aggressively squeezes down space when on the front in goal-line situations but can also chase plays down the line if unaccounted for
+ Was brought on some blitzes through the interior from depth, with the aggressively mindset to run through RBs in protection
Zone coverage:
+ Jumped out to me quite a bit when I watched his running mate at safety in Jordan Howden for the 2023 draft, with the way his presence on the back-end was felt
+ Follows the quarterbacks eyes and trusts what he sees in order to take him to the football, aggressively breakung on the football and looking to disrupt the catch-point
+ The ability to close the gap to threats down the seams in cover-two or wipe out receivers at the sideline on vertical routes from those alignments to negate the potential for big plays through the air stood out on several occasions to save the Gophers
+ Drives upfield and creates a bunch of key stops in the open field without hesitation, yet he’ll slow his feet when guys are trying to put a move on him and you see so many tackles where he’s just able to get guys to the ground thanks to those long arms
+ Does not look uncomfortable when he has to flip and run with the backside X receiver on post routes in quarters
+ Showcases excellent hand-eye coordination when the ball goes past or over the intended target and he suddenly has a chance to come down with it himself
+ Came up with two excellent interceptions in the 2023 season-opener against Nebraska, where on the latter one he undercut a bang-eight route from a single-high alignment, to set up his team for the game-winning field goal
Man coverage:
+ Spent a career-high 84 snaps in the slot last season and opposing quarterbacks actively avoided him, intercepting the only two targets in man-coverage
+ Put up several impressive isolated reps on tape against tight-ends flexed out or working from in-line, where he’s 8-10 yards off and has to stay patient
+ Ready to bring the fight as guys aim right at him, with enough force in his hands to dictate reps
+ Has the mental reactionary quickness and sudden burst to stick with tight-ends working across the formation on mesh concepts and not get hung up in traffic
+ His confidence will be key if used extensively as a matchup player, to not get down on himself for one lost rep
+ On 20 targets in 2022, Nubin allowed just seven completions for 158 yards and one touchdown, while intercepting and breaking up four passes each, for a passer rating of just 41.3
+ Earned the highest PFF coverage grade for any safety in the FBS last season (90.1), only allowing six of 20 targets with him as the closest defender to be completed for 90 yards and two TDs compared to his five picks
Weaknesses:
– Lacks the make-up burst where if he’s out of phase in isolated situations, to re-enter the picture
– Doesn’t reduce his height in his back-pedal and there can be a slight delay coming out of it in the process, without top-tier click-and-close ability
– Very unproven in man-coverage, with just 163 such snaps and 12 total targets across his five years with the Gophers, according to PFF
– On late rotations caused by motion, his angles can be too steep rather than diagonal, which can allow speedy ball-carriers who get touches with a head-start to get to the sideline
– While he was an effective tackler in college, NFL athletes may be able to slip off more of his loose wraps, where he’s only just able to trip guys up with how aggressively he attacks upfield initially
I came out of last summer with Nubin as my top-ranked safety and while Minnesota didn’t have a great year overall, that gap between him and the rest of the group has only widened. His instincts, the ability to attack the ball in the air, separate targets from it when closing in on routes and how he squares up runners are all tops of the class. Now, we don’t have that final piece of the puzzle, since we didn’t get any timed speed on him at the combine or his pro day and that’ll be the key question when considered how early he may come off the board. I don’t think he would’ve necessarily helped himself if he did run a 40 coming off the meniscus surgery he had after the season. However, because of the way he sees the game, that anticipation expands his range as one of the top play-makers at the position. It’s tough to speak on his man-coverage skills because he was asked to do it so infrequently and his redirections could’ve been more dynamic, but if you want him to match tight-ends from off-alignments, I didn’t see any issues with that on tape. To maximize his play however, I want him to play top-down and let his eyes carry him to the football. If someone took him in the late first round, I’d be totally fine with it, although I think top of the second seems more realistic.
2. Javon Bullard, Georgia
5’11”, 195 pounds; JR
One of the top-1000 overall recruits in 2021, Bullard saw action in all but one of 15 games as a true freshman (138 total snaps), but didn’t defend any passes and recorded just 12 tackles. He started 10 of 14 contests played the following season – all in the slot – recording 46 tackles, seven for loss, 3.5 sacks, two interceptions and three passes broken up. While Georgia couldn’t accomplish a three-peat of national titles, Bullard did help them get to a third straight SEC Championship game undefeated, with him setting career-highs in tackles (56) and PBUs (five), along with two more picks. Yet, weirdly only the SEC named him second-team All-SEC.
Run defense & blitzing:
+ Has plenty of experience stacking and shedding slot receivers to support vs. the run when he was almost exclusively deployed in the slot in 2022
+ Yet when he was playing a more traditional safety spot last season, you saw him take excellent angles downhill from two-high alignments
+ Actively reduces the space towards the closest man at the line when he becomes the overhang or force defender by shuffling inside and will flatten down the line when he sees an opportunity to shut down plays hitting inside
+ Doesn’t shy away from attacking a pulling lineman low and funneling the ball back inside to the rest of the troop
+ Georgia blitzed him off the edge quite a bit and he was able to ride running backs into the quarterback regularly on those
+ Deceptive and times up the snap very well when he’s rushing off the slot
+ Missed just 9.2% of the attempted tackles in his career (12 of 130)
Zone coverage:
+ Excelled in a versatile, pro-oriented coverage scheme, where he was asked to cover all areas of the field for stretches
+ After spending the majority of snaps in the slot in his first season as a starter, Bullard actually improved his level of play whilst having to operate further away from the ball with a lot of deep zone responsibilities
+ Identifies when offenses try to hit leverage throws or rubs and drives down in a hurry to stop those, lowering the pads on guys as soon as they secure the grab at times
+ Rapidly closes ground when motion leads to a rotation of the safeties, to not get out-leveraged into the flats and be able to shut easy completions down before they can really get going
+ When he’s covering the deep half and sees quarterbacks set up quickly for a backside slant route, there are times where Bullard arrives at the receiver just as his hands touch the ball, in order to jar it loose
+ Georgia asked him to bail out of the slot into invert cover-two occasionally, where he showed the appropriate feel for spacing and even got an interception on a badly thrown ball down the post in the 2022/23 Natty vs. TCU
+ After only surrendered 0.88 yards per coverage snap from the slot in 2022, Bullard was the highest-graded FBS safety in zone coverage by PFF in 2023 (88.8), while spending 47.1% of snaps in deep alignment
Man coverage:
+ Uses his hands well and has the loose hips to take charge of reps when receivers release inside of his shade in press-alignment
+ Understands when he’s in control of the route as a man-defender and he can look back at the quarterback, in order to attack the ball himself
+ Showcases the twitch to stay square and widen guys on inside fades, before nailing down the near-arm to slow them down and not be able to reach out for the ball optimally
+ Not worried about tight-ends pushing up the field when he flexed out wide with them, almost in a side-bail position and ready for the break on hitches/square-ins, etc.
+ Has some perfect reps in off-man coverage against slot receivers on square breaks, staying patient, undercutting and wrapping around for PBUs
+ So comfortable with reaching around targets that split-second early, where because he plays he ball he doesn’t get flagged for it
+ Allowed just 14 of 26 targets against him to be completed last season for 119 yards and no touchdowns compared to his two picks (34.0 passer rating)
Weaknesses:
– Tends to cover grass a lot as a deep middle safety, continuing to drift just to not have somebody run by him
– You also see it at times playing cover-two, where he doesn’t take advantage of opportunities to angle over towards sideline shots, to disrupt the catch-point
– Needs to do a better job of maintaining and using leverage to his advantage against crossing routes coming towards him or not overrunning plays out to the perimeter the other way
– In man-coverage, he lacks the make-up burst to recover from a mis-step or receivers getting him to freeze for a split-second on double-moves
– Wasn’t as consistent a tackler rallying from depth, too often diving for the ankles of ball-carriers, leading to seven missed attempts (still a solid 10.8% miss rate)
Bullard doesn’t have the elite range of a center-fielder or the size you typically covet for guys playing extensively in the box, but if you’re looking for a combo-safety who can fit in a split-safety structured defense and then drop down into the slot on longer downs, this is your guy. There are still some intricacies at the position that he’ll need to learn – which is understandable since he only transitioned from nickel a year ago – but you’re drafting a player who has performed as well as pretty anybody in two different roles for college football’s top defense over the last couple of years. Bullard lacks that extra gear to recover when caught in bad positions for man-assignments and maybe I wouldn’t want to stick him on a 4.3 guy with a lot of space consistently, but it’s rare that he actually gets himself out of position in the first place. You saw that throughout Senior Bowl week, where he made receivers go through his chest and forced them to round off routes flatter back towards the quarterback, so even when they did catch the ball it was for minimal yardage. His competitiveness and assignment-oriented style really shined as he was working with a new coaching staff and I think he’ll acclimate himself to his future team in a hurry. This is a second-round pick all day long.
3. Kamren Kinchens, Miami
5’11”, 200 pounds; JR
A four-star recruit in 2021, Kitchens immediately got major playing time as a true freshman with the Hurricanes (44 tackles and four PBUs), before ascending to a first-team All-American in year two, when he tacked up 59 tackles, six interceptions (one returned for a TD) and pass break-ups each, along with a fumble forced and recovered each. This past season he put basically identical numbers, if you take off one pick, PBU and forced fumble each, which still made him a first-team all-conference selection.
Run defense & blitzing:
+ Races up the alley with reckless abandon from split-safety looks to create quick stops in the run game
+ From single-high alignments, he works under more control, but tracks the ball well and places himself into cutback lanes to limit those plays
+ Rapidly erases the space to the slot receiver on bubble alerts off RPOs and breaking down for the tackle
+ Happily drops down into the box and shoots or blitzes through gaps to disrupt the offensive backfield
+ Capable of creating TFLs when blitzing off the edge and dipping underneath pullers to his side with good flexibility
+ Has some true maniac tendencies, where he’ll launch himself into an offensive lineman in the open field and send those guys airborne if they don’t really see him
+ Provides impressive stopping power against guys who have 20-30 pounds on him and doesn’t mind sticking his face in the fan if he’s taking the worst of the collision
Zone coverage:
+ Led all safeties in the country with a 90.0 overall PFF grade and a 90.7 coverage grade in 2022
+ The step frequency and ground he cover in a straight back-pedal after showing down low initially is impressive
+ His closing burst and ability to put his helmet at the ball against seam routes and benders as a single-high safety really pops a few times
+ You see receivers break towards the middle of the field or curl up in front of him and Kinchens’ awareness for the defense being vulnerable there from two-high looks, to barrel down and deliver shots onto their backside that challenge them holding onto the ball
+ Displays high-end ball-skills to make sideline picks, haul in deflected passes and rarely allowing the ball to hit his chest – only failed to haul in two of 13 potential interceptions over the past two years
+ Takes excellent angles against completions in front of him and adjusting them accordingly as the recipient makes his moves on the run
+ When pursuing guys turning up the sideline, Kinchens does a good job of using the sideline as a 12th defender and not allowing himself to get crossed up
+ Had an awesome game-sealing tackle against N.C. State in 2022, when he brought down the slot receiver on a quick out route on fourth down, where it looked like that guy would be able to get to the sticks, but was immediately brought to the turf
Man coverage:
+ Balanced in his back-pedal and is locked in on the hips of the receiver when covering the one-on-one
+ Does well to ID route stems and anticipate breaks in off-man assignments
+ Has some impressive plays where he’s responsible for a tight-ends, who leaks underneath the formation (off play-action) and he chases them down for minimal yardage at the opposite side of the field
+ Manages the catch-point exceptionally well when playing off, where he times it just right to initiate contact when the ball arrives at the target and swipes through the hands in order to force incompletions without drawing flags – only penalized twice on 1064 career coverage snaps
+ Takes optimal paths behind the hip of fellow receivers blocking when he triggers on his man running screen passes
+ In 2022, he held opposing quarterbacks to 12-of-21 for 221 yards and two TDs, compared to his six INTs, and while the numbers were a little bit worse, he still picked off five, broke up two passes and created stops on eight that were completed of the 34 targets his way (44.1% of those leading to positive plays for the defense)
Weaknesses:
– For somebody who ends up as the last line of defense quite regularly, Kinchens doesn’t square up the ball-carrier and make sure he’s not vulnerable to getting turned around well enough
– Looked a bit more reserved involving himself in the run fit this past season, with an average depth of tackle at 8.89 yards
– Leaves his feet a lot trying to bring down the ball-carrier – missed 14 of 71 attempted tackles in 2022 (19.7%) and still 13.7% last year
– Gambles on some plays, where the offense has a double-move built in or the quarterback is locked in on one of his targets and Kinchens flies over there blindly, voiding his landmarks
– His overall PFF grade plummeted last season, down from 90.0 in 2022 to 67.8, allowing a 82.4% completion percentage and double the touchdowns (four, compared to still five INTs)
Since the end of the 2022 college football season, it felt like a two-man race for the title of first safety selected in this draft between Kinchens and Minnesota’s Tyler Nubin. Some people certainly fell out of love with him, at the very least once he tested at the combine, where he was tied with Miami teammate James Williams for the worst time in the 40-yard dash among safeties (4.65) and the 10-yard split (1.59), along with finishing bottom-five in both the jumps. That doesn’t pair well with already being slightly undersized. With that being said, the apparent fall is a little exaggerated. I do believe he’ll need to work on his eye-balance between the quarterback and receivers, along with staying on his feet as a tackler. However, he moves a lot better than the timed speed would indicate, he has rare ball-hawking skills and quickly eliminates weaknesses within his defense, whether he actually gets his hands on the ball or separates the intended target from it. Because of that, I prefer him in a split-safety based defensive structure – at least early on – which also enables him to be more ferocious in run support. I still think he belongs in the second round, even if closer towards the back-end.
4. Kitan Oladapo, Oregon State
6’2”, 215 pounds; RS SR
Not being ranked by the recruiting services back in 2018, Oladapo only saw action in one game across his first two years with the Beavers and utilizing a redshirt. In 2020, he did start one of six games and showed his value, with 26 tackles, 2.5 of those for loss, two sacks, one forced fumble and passes broken up each. That earned him a starting gig in all but one game overall of the 13 each these last three years. Over that time, he combined for 223 tackles, 12.5 TFLs, 4.5 sacks, three picks and 22 PBUs, being named honorable mention All-Pac-12 twice and then second-team in 2023.
Run defense & blitzing:
+ Does a great job of involving himself in the run fit, as his man is motioned in tight or the C-gap opens up playing on the edge of the box
+ Shows some sudden hands to evade slot receivers trying to occupy him in the run game and has a real knack for shooting the lane between bodies working out to the perimeter
+ Races up against screen passes and perimeter runs with conviction once the picture clears up and he knows that’s definitely where the ball is going
+ Takes excellent angles from depth and delivers some pop on quite a few hits at the end of those – Lays the wood on running backs hitting cutbacks towards him
+ Highly effective open-field tackler, who clutches the legs of ball-carriers and rarely allows them to get away from him anymore, missing a solid 10.3% of attempted stops since 2022
+ Earned the highest run-defense grade of any safety with 100+ snaps last season (91.3)
+ Forced a massive fumble in the 2023 Washington, when RB Dillon Johnson was about to finish off a long run in the end-zone and Oladapo swiped it out from behind
+ Turns a tight corner when blitzing off the edge, often times after they dropped him down onto the edge of the box
Zone coverage:
+ Has quality experience in a split-safety structured defense, where he was asked to cone, bracket, cloud or match receivers down the field
+ Displays plus awareness for route patterns and where his eyes should be/progress towards in accordance to his responsibility
+ Positions himself well in-between routes when offenses try to put him in conflict as a deep half or post defender
+ Leverages the ball exceptionally well to hold completions to limited yardage
+ Absolutely smacks down some receivers when he has a runway to build after seeing the pass get completed
+ Times the arrival of the ball extremely well and is able to swipe it down just as the intended target gets his fingertips on it
+ Also showcases impressive ball-skills to high-point passes and win at the catch-point
Man coverage:
+ Looks comfortable sitting back patiently in off-man coverage against tight-ends particularly
+ Yet if he recognizes altered stems on routes across the field, he’ll shuffle inside and engage, in order to not provide a step on him
+ Sturdy frame to deal with guys trying to push off or swipe by him, not losing phase typically because of that
+ Does a nice job of trailing motion and not get lost in traffic caught out of position as he’s forced to recover
+ Comfortable flexing out wide for stretches of games when offenses spread them out
+ Showcases tremendous hand-eye coordination when he’s a step behind his man but somehow is still able to locate and get a finger on the ball, rather than trying to play the hands
+ Had several highly impressive one-on-one reps against tight-ends throughout Senior Bowl, in particular blanketing them on corner routes
Weaknesses:
– Lacks the high-end range to make plays on the ball outside the numbers starting from the deep post
– Can be had as a deep half defender towards the field and he has somebody breaking in front of him, whilst another receiver goes vertical
– Far lass comfortable covering guys one-on-one when he actually has to move backwards as a more traditional slot defender
– Lacks the twitchiness when he’s isolated with a receiver down the field and opens up the wrong way, to recover and close that gap before the ball arrives there
– While he’s a fundamentally sound tackler, dynamic ball-carrier can make him miss in the open field at times, because he lacks that type of quick-twitch that matches up
I’m not going to talk around this here – this is my favorite safety in the draft. I just broke down Oladapo as one of “my guys” last week and after going through the names from this class once more, I actually moved him up a little bit further. Seeing him listed as a fifth-round pick on consensus boards is unfathomable to me. Sure, his ability to turn and run with speedy receivers could be a little better, but the 4.58 he ran at the combine isn’t representative of what you actually see on the field. However, reading and attacking plays from depth – which is exactly how modern NFL defenses want their safeties to operate – I’m not sure there’s anybody better in both facets of the game combined than this dude, plus then he can come down and be your dime linebacker in certain packages. This kind of feels like evaluators wanting to go away from these bigger-bodied types, who would’ve been defined as “strong safeties”, without realizing he excelled in a scheme that uses a lot more pro principles. Oladapo is who people wanted Miami’s James Williams to become and I’d happily select him in the middle of day two.
5. Cole Bishop, Utah
6’2”, 205 pounds; JR
One of the top-1000 overall recruits in 2021, Bishop filled the stat sheet in a major way in his debut campaign with the Utes despite only starting the final six of ten games played, racking up 54 tackles, six for loss, three pass break-ups, an interception and fumble forced each. He started all but one of 14 contests in year two, upping his tackle total to 83 (six for loss), three PBUs and again one INT and FF each. He was named honorable mention All-Pac-12 in both. This past season, he improved to second-team all-conference, thanks to career-highs in sacks (three), picks (two), PBUs (four), fumbles forced (one) and recovered (two).
Run defense:
+ Charges up the alley with a purpose and is able to shut down toss or speed-option plays before they can really get going if he’s unaccounted for
+ Was put down into the box quite a bit and looked comfortable locking out against tight-ends in order to set the edge in the run game
+ Also, his lateral mobility on lead plays the opposite way and then being able to open up, allows him to push ball-carriers out of bounds that could otherwise be turned up the sideline for massive gains
+ Works downhill under control against screen passes and plays where he’s the one responsible to make the tackle, keeping an open chest and staying balanced
+ Tracks and angles towards the ball on the opposite side of the field very well, to not get beat across the grain and be in position to limit explosives
+ Confident, effective open-field stopper, who arrives low and wraps tightly as a tackler, but will also lower the boom from the side on guys when he sees an opportunity
+ The sophomore’s 35 run-defense stops and 14 tackles for loss/no-gain over the last two years were also top-five marks among that same group
Zone coverage:
+ Has experience covering tight-ends in man, playing split-field and single-high safety coverages, while being an active communicator and directing traffic for a strong Utes defense
+ Consistently stays over the top of vertical routes in deep zone assignments
+ Is alert of where the defense in vulnerable squeezes towards routes trying to split two-high looks for example, to spook quarterbacks out of attempting those throws
+ Shuts down glances and other stuff over the middle where the second level is drawn up in a hurry, when by their single-high alignment the defense could be vulnerable to big YAC plays
+ Quick to close and undercut throws to the tight-end or receivers sitting down in the holes of zone coverage when working the shallow areas
+ Displays excellent peripheral vision and may just decapitate crossing receivers when he has a runway up to them
+ You see him blow through the up-field shoulder and put his helmet right on the ball to dislodge receivers from the ball late breaking towards the middle of the field
+ He’s a real YAC eliminator for the Utes, clutching and putting guys on the ground as soon as they bring the ball in a lot of times
Man coverage & blitzing:
+ Understands when he’s in control of the route and he can peak back at the quarterback in man-/match-coverage
+ Showcases tremendous awareness for the “play-clock” and when to close down or attach to routes that are still on the table for the quarterback
+ Does an excellent job of efficiently maneuvering around bodies as he’s trying to stick to his guy on screen passes, even on RBs/TEs coming across the formation
+ Officially was only targeted four times in man-coverage last season (according to PFF) but was only charged with one completion for three yards, across 111 such snaps
+ Has some wiggle to him in order to get around the back in protection when blitzed, yet he can also press those guys off, force quarterbacks to move and chase after them
+ Gets those arms up and forces the QB to float passes way over his head when trying to throw hot to the back
+ In 2022, he led all Power Five safeties with 21 pressures on just 63(!) pass-rush snaps, and he actually had the exact same rate on fewer opportunities last season (12 pressures on 36 PR snaps)
Weaknesses:
– Has room to improve his take-on technique and ability to play through blocks with extension, to be able to track the ball simultaneously
– There’s no special burst or long-speed to be hang with speedy slot receivers in man-coverage
– More so just floats deep and is looking to not get run by instead of managing that space when asked to cover the deep middle
– Occasionally gets tunnel-vision for the quarterback and can be at fault for vacating his area for the purpose of “making plays”
– When forced to actually turn and run with vertical threats playing more flat-footed, there’s stiffness that can show up and delay the process slightly
When you study this safety class, Bishop’s tape is about as clean as anybody’s. The question was how athletic he truly is, in part due to being a white DB playing in Mormon country – if we’re being honest. Yet, showing up at 206 pounds for the combine, he ran a 4.45 and tested above the 90th percentile in both the jumps, along with showing loose hips, efficiently changing directions and at one point making a beautiful over-the-shoulder grab during the positional workout. Now, do I believe he quite plays up to those numbers when you watch him turn and run with people? I’d be lying if I said I did. However, he’s going to give you that top speed at all times, pursuing the ball with unwavering hustle on every single snap. I love the way he angles down against the run, his awareness as a zone defender, his secure tackling skills and what he adds on top as a blitzer. I’m not sure if I want him to match legit vertical threats from 10-15 yards off, where he’ll probably allow guys to gain a step or two on him if he doesn’t want to commit prematurely, but playing shell coverage, defending the deep post, dropping down into the slot with tight-ends and involving him in your pressure packages, I think he can take care of all those tasks. I’d take him in the third round.
6. Dadrion Taylor-Demerson, Texas Tech
5’10”, 195 pounds; RS SR
A three-star running back recruit in 2019, “Rabbit” Taylor-Demerson appeared in 11 games as a regular on special teams and to some degree on defense (16 tackles). As a sophomore, he started the final three of ten contests and then broke out in 2021, when he took over one of the starting safetiey spots mid-way through the year. Over his final three seasons, he combined for 208 total stops, 8.5 for loss, two sacks, ten interceptions, 23(!) pass break-ups, two fumbles forced and three recovered. He was recognized as a second-team All-Big 12 performer in 2023.
Run defense & blitzing:
+ Charges up the alley in a hurry, tracking the ball and slowing his feet very well on sweep plays and swing screens to his side, making key stops to limit the potential for big YAC
+ Shoots through the lane between pullers out on the corner and cuts down ball-carriers at their legs, to limit explosives on those types of plays
+ Displays a good understanding for when to stay behind blocks or take advantage of chances to elude them
+ When playing in the box or slot, he’s sudden with force responsibilities and dips the near-shoulder away from receivers responsible for blocking him
+ Incredibly effective at flipping over guys with the ball in open space
+ Blitzed off the slot a few times, where he times the snaps well and can dip underneath blockers to funnel the ball inside, and the Red Raiders also brought him a few times from single-high alignments, dropping down to linebacker depth as the quarterback gets into his cadence and then shoot through the open A-gap to flush the quarterback
+ While he only got to rush the passer 16 times last season, exactly half of those resulted in pressures and he earned a 91.3 PFF grade in that facet
Zone coverage:
+ Was regularly put in the deep post and made sure to stay deeper than the deepest
+ Showcases easy range to line up on one hash and make plays on the ball at the opposite numbers when the pass hangs up in the air a little bit
+ Does well to keep his shoulders square for as long as possible in two-high shells and only turning with skinny posts, streak routes, etc. when they’re about to run by him
+ Excels sorting through the trash and allowing the eyes of the quarterback to lead him to the ball when buzzing down into the hook-to-flat area or as a lurker
+ It never feels like he surrenders more yardage than necessary with his angles, yet also doesn’t get burnt that way and effective twists guys down in space
+ Understands that limited space in the red-zone exceptionally well, to take away throws at the back-line and can punish quarterbacks putting it up for grabs late
+ Showcases impressive ball-skills for interceptions on overthrown passes, having to dive for the ball or reach behind himself
Man coverage:
+ Anticipates routes and reads stems effectively to slide in front of and initiate contact with receivers around that five-yard mark, to take control of routes in off-man coverage
+ Doesn’t look uncomfortable capping over number two in trips and matching that guy with 10+ yards of cushion
+ Loose in the hips to flip and run with guys vertically even playing off while opponents are at full speed
+ Showcases the route anticipation and discipline to not bite on excessive foot-fire to expand his snaps matching up with slot receivers in the pros
+ While he officially only spent 91 snaps in man-coverage and saw seven targets his way (according to PFF), he only surrendered two completions for 12 yards on those (39.6 passer rating)
+ Missed a solid 10.2% of his attempted tackles last season despite playing from depth as much as he did
Weaknesses:
– Undersized with short arms (just short of 31 inches) and not much to his frame
– Can get caught covering grass as a deep post defender, gaining excess depth and seeing throws get completed in front of him
– Could definitely be a bit faster at keying on quick hitters, such as glances off RPOs and shutting them down right away instead of allowing receivers to gain momentum
– Would rather try to knock the ball out of the intended target’s hands by swiping at it compared to separating those two with a big hit when given a chance (such as on seam routes when playing the deep post)
– Wasn’t asked to just line up in the slot and play true man a whole lot, and when he did, it was with cushion and more conservatively
Like I mentioned during the “my guys” episode, where I planted my flag on prospects at every position, I love for Taylor-Demerson that he’s been rising throughout this process, but I hate that I now faller closer than consensus, compared to when he was still in the 200s on consensus boards back in early February. He had a phenomenal Shrine Bowl week and then made NFL decision-makers take note at the combine, when he ran a 4.41 in the 40, looked tight in all of his transitions and made a couple of outstanding hands-catches during the on-field workout. I’ve been in love with his instincts, range and ball-skills since I first put on the tape. For being a little undersized, he doesn’t allow it at all to affect him in run defense and while the sample-sizes are both small, he was exceptional in man-coverage and as a blitzer last season. Now, he’ll still need to work on how he manages space in deep coverage and how to handle situations when the ball is in the air but he can’t quite get his hands on it himself, but that’s sort of nit-picking. He does come in a little smaller package, but he take on and be valuable in basically any assignment on the back-end.
7. Jaden Hicks, Washington State
6’2”, 215 pounds; RS SO
Just inside the top-1000 overall recruits in 2021, Hicks appeared in one game and redshirted his first year on campus, before starting all but the first two of 13 games in his debut campaign. He racked up 76 tackles, a sack, an interception, six PBUs and a scoop-and-score. This past season, Hicks logged career-highs in total tackles (79), TFLs (6.5), sacks (2.5), forced fumbles (one) and interceptions (two – one returned for a touchdown), along with four PBUs. Yet, with the depth at the safety position in the Pac-12, he only made honorable mention all-conference.
Run defense:
+ Brings a ton of energy to the table and set the tone of this Wazzu D on a weekly basis, where he plays with a downhill mind-set and will involve himself in the fit even if he’s not on paper
+ Has the physicality to be a legit +1 in the box, but also can slip bodies in space when appropriate
+ Makes sure to squeeze tight-ends into the action and eliminate cutback lanes when lined up on the edge of the front
+ Uses his hands well to keep blockers off his frame when lined up in the slot or someone works up to him
+ Won’t surrender contain against backs trying to bounce wide and giving a little stutter to soften the corner for himself, while swiping down attempted stiff-arms
+ Understands when to break down or if he can lay a bigger hit, with some hefty collisions in the hole against running backs
+ On the first two plays of the Wisconsin game in 2023, Hicks put power back Braelon Allen on his butt after catching a swing route and then knifed through the line for a TFL
+ Received a 74.4 PFF run defense grade and recorded 18 defensive stops in 2022, which he upped to 24 last season
Zone coverage:
+ Does a great job of mid-pointing route combination that are supposed to put him in conflict and not giving quarterback a clear indication of where to go, instead turning it down and dumping the ball off
+ Showcases impressive closing burst to challenge the catch-point even if he’s asked to take a longer path towards his receiver off natural rubs and leverage advantages out of stacks
+ When there’s no threat to his area in shallow zone coverage, Hicks is looking for work and regularly flies underneath deep crossers
+ You really like what he presents as an air traffic controlled dropping down as a robber, with the spatial awareness for nearby targets
+ Takes excellent angles all across the field after the ball comes out of the quarterback’s hand, without surrendering free yardage
+ Delivered some blows that take the air out of receivers coming over the middle when he drops down as a hole-defender or robber and jars the ball loose regularly
+ Creates some unbelievable stops on crossers and throws late into the flats from two-high alignments
Man coverage & blitzing:
+ Displays the physicality and athletic feet to really challenge tight-ends and slot receivers on the release in man-coverage reps – earned an 80.1 slot grade from PFF in 2023
+ When he doesn’t connect properly with his punch, Hicks doesn’t panic and just run into the man, but rather gets his gloves on that guy’s hips to read where he’s going
+ Patient in off-man, with plenty of force in his hands to contest the break-point
+ Does a great job of IDing and working over the top of cross-releases and route combination that stress defenders’ ability to hang with their guys, as they could be in their own way
+ Held opposing passers to 170 yards and two TDs vs. two INTs across 31 targets and 427 coverage snaps last season – one of those picks was an awesome job of wrestling the ball away on a slot fade to Washington WR Ja’Lynn Polk
+ Times up his blitzes where he starts from depth exceptionally well, to cross the line just as the ball is snapped
+ Recognizes when RBs overset on him blitzing off the edge and quickly slips inside of them to get to the QB
Weaknesses:
– Too often allows his pads to get turned by blockers and is a lot less effective disengaging from blockers when he’s not setting the tone on contact
– Not the most comfortable at flipping his hips with vertical routes, whether he’s manned up or has to open with guys in two-deep shells
– Tends to get sloppy in his back-pedal and there can be a bit of a delay redirecting in off-man coverage
– Doesn’t track passes down the field particularly well or has great hands – dropped two opportunities for interceptions each of the past two seasons, compared to three actually hauled in
– Lacks the quick-twitch to come to balance and corral dynamic ball-carriers in true one-on-one situations as he works up from single-high alignments
Hicks was one of the more fun safeties to watch these last two seasons, with the way he was flying around the field. Whether you want to use him as a big nickel, ask him to run the alley from two-deep locks or add him onto the edge of the box, he can be a top-tier run defender on early downs. Then in the pass game, he has the stout build to deal with tight-ends in man-assignments and he consistently is looking for and finds work as a zone defender. I don’t want him to cover actual slot receivers a whole lot and whether it’s the ability to track the deep ball or bring down ball-carriers in the open field, the further away from the line of scrimmage he’s asked to play, there can be some issues. With that being said, you love the juice he brings to your defense, how he makes his presence felt physically and he reportedly ran a 4.49 at the Cougars’ pro day, even if you want him to use that in a straight line rather than changing directions. Depending on how you value this kind of skill-set and if you have a player who can fulfill those tasks, you can take him earlier or (for me) later in the third round.
8. Malik Mustapha, Wake Forest
5’10”, 210 pounds; RS JR
A zero-star recruit for Richmond in 2020, Mustapha didn’t log any passes defensed in four games as a true freshman (17 tackles), but impressed Wake Forest enough to bring him over and immediately saw action with them. Over his first two years there, he combined for 95 tackles, ten of those for loss, two interceptions, five pass break-ups, three fumbles forced and two recovered. Then in 2023, he put up 80 total stops, five TFLs, two PBUs, one pick and fumbles forced. That made him a second-team All-ACC selection.
Run defense & blitzing:
+ Rocked-up, functional frame to fulfill box duties while having spent plenty of time in the deep post
+ Plays with the mindset of a linebacker, accelerating into lead-blockers and crashing into bodies on the move
+ There are some plays where he starts from deep alignment and knifes through a lane to take down or at least force the back into a TFL
+ You never really see Mustapha’s angles get burnt when he has to pursue out to the sideline
+ When he ends up one-on-one with a quarterback pulling the ball and he’s the only man left working from split-safety looks, he reliably get those guys to the ground, if they don’t do so voluntarily, trying to avoid a big hit
+ Earned the fifth-highest PFF run-defense grade among FBS safeties in this draft for 2023 (87.5), racking up 21 run stops
+ Provides incredible pursuit when blitzed off the edge on run plays towards the opposite side and he’s also a ferocious rusher from depth to put quarterbacks on their backside
+ There are some plays where he’s lined up on one hash and then ends up initiating first contact with the ball-carrier at the opposite numbers around the line of scrimmage on end-arounds
Zone coverage:
+ For a man his size, the ability to cover ground as a deep middle safety stands out
+ You see him make plays at the numbers on high-arcing passes and smack guys extending for the ball
+ Was regularly deployed as a Tampa-2 middle dropper basically, but already starting from depth and patrolling the middle so to speak
+ Excels at reading the quarterback’s eyes and closing in on throws in his vicinity from that role, as a robber or bumping down for shallow zone assignments
+ Times up his jumps very well and had several last-moment knock-aways when receivers appeared to be open initially as the ball was released
+ While he’s still very aggressive as a tackler, Mustapha has become a lot more effective now that he actually slings his arms around targets as he runs through them or wrestles them to the ground
+ Improved his overall PFF grade each of the past three seasons (79.7 in 2023)
Man coverage:
+ Capable of sorting out mesh concepts and other traffic and take care of his responsibility in man-/match-coverage
+ When asked to get into press-alignments, he provides heavy hands to disrupt guys at the line of scrimmage, plus he continues to fight the arms and deny receivers stack-position on vertical patterns
+ His ability to click-and-close on short-to-intermediate routes in off-man coverage against slot receivers really pops
+ As soon as the hips of the guy in front of him tilt at all when he’s in man or match-quarters, Mustapha triggers
+ Has the wheels to pick up and stick with crossing routes all the way to the opposite sideline
+ Allowed just 15 of 29 passes his way to be completed for 175 yards and two touchdowns vs. one pick last season (316 coverage snaps)
Weaknesses:
– Can get his eyes trapped in the backfield a little bit too much and take off against eye-candy before the picture clears up
– His arms measured in at just over 30 inches and he didn’t test at the combine other than the bench press
– A lot better coming downhill than when receivers are pushing at him, as he looks far less comfortable when he ends up having to turn and run with them – gave up a few big plays in those isolated spots in 2022
– Not particularly clean in transitions having to backpedal and redirect out of it – that’s why also you see him side-shuffle when gaining depth a lot of times
– May be looked at as a primary box safety, which is where he basically spent half of his snaps these past two seasons (586 of 1177), according to PFF – and that’s a far less prominent role in today’s game
Mustapha falls in the same category as a surprisingly high amount of safeties in this class are part of, where they’re best at attacking the line of scrimmage in the run game and his best role would be as plus one in the box. Unfortunately, today’s defensive structures revolve so much around two-high looks, where those guys have to match slot receiver with 12+ yards of cushion in quasi-man-coverage regularly. And if he has to give ground at all, I think he’s much less effective countering the break. With that being said, his identification of any leans or tempo changes to anticipate where the route may break is really good to make up for it, if he is allowed to drive from depth and then he arrives there with an attitude. He has more than adequate range to rotate into the deep half occasionally and cleanly he can step down and be involved in the run fit. Having pumped out 22 reps on the bench press in Indy (most for any defender in the back-seven) also speaks to his commitment to the weight room, along with the clues you get of his work in the film room when watching the tape.
9. Tykee Smith, Georgia
5’10”, 200 pounds; RS SR
Just a three-star recruit for West Virginia in 2019, over his two years with the Mountaineers, Smith amassed 111 tackles (69 solo), with 10.5 for loss, four interceptions (only taken to the house) and nine additional passes broken up. Ahead of the 2021 season, he decided to transfer to Georgia, where he unfortunately was lost for the year already in the opener, with a torn ACL. You could tell that he wasn’t himself and received limited playing time the following season, but bounced back in a big way in 2023 – 70 total tackles, 8.5 for loss, two sacks, four interceptions and two PBUs – when he was named second-team All-SEC.
Run defense & blitzing:
+ Very downhill-oriented safety against the run game
+ The closing burst to erase angles out to the sideline for running backs pops off the screen
+ Shows the physicality to shove receivers to the side as a big nickel and create the initial wrap on the ball-carrier
+ You also saw the attitude when he yanks guys to the turf every once in a while, regardless if the play is already being stopped
+ Has the strong upper body to press off tight-ends and set a firm edge in vs. the run as a box defender
+ This guy’s like a blur when he shoots down and blows up screen passes
+ Smith was blitzed off the edge quite a bit by the Mountaineers especially, where he showed tremendous pursuit and ability to flatten down the line, when the play went away from him
Zone coverage:
+ Doesn’t show a lot of wasted movements as route patterns develop around him and he’s deciphering through them
+ At WVU, against trips you saw Smith line up shaded to the outside of the number two receiver primarily, to take away quick hitters into the flats, but then also carry routes vertically
+ Can flip his hips in smooth fashion, when he has to open initially and then mirror sharp breaks
+ Shows pretty good feel for targets coming in behind him and when to turn, in order to affect the catch-point
+ Typically stays home for crossers when the offense clears out on the outside and wants to attack that voided that space
+ Tracks the ball very well over either shoulder down the field
+ When he can’t actually make a play on it himself, you see Smith lay the wood on guys at the sideline and jar the ball loose to great effect
Man coverage:
+ Transitioned into being more of a traditional overhang and slot corner this past season with the Bulldogs, where his size makes him an attractive target for teams that want to base out of big nickel more regularly
+ His length allows him to sustain contact with receivers from trail position, to widen their path feel the break coming
+ You don’t see receivers gain ground on him on deep crossers typically, at times actually catching up to them as the play-clock is running
+ Presents an appealing body-type as a potential matchup player against tight-ends
+ Recognizes opportunities to peak back at the quarterback momentarily, yet still play through the hands of the intended target
+ Can really drop his pads and make his presence felt when the ball is thrown underneath him
+ The man-coverage numbers from PFF are just bonkers – 5-of-17 for 31 yards and one TD vs. two passes picked off and broken up each
Weaknesses:
– Doesn’t always take the greatest care of his contain responsibility, where running backs can give him a little dip inside and win the corner against him
– Doesn’t show overly impressive click-and-close ability out of his pedal and you saw that against skilled route-runners during the Senior Bowl, when he had no help, stopping his feet momentarily and therefore being a step late to redirect
– Can get caught leaning too much and lose contact late in the rep as his man adjusts or transitions into a secondary route
– Has to wrap up more consistently as a tackler in the open field – missed 14.7% of attempted tackles during his time in the SEC
– Got injured in the 2021 season-opener with Georgia and then was relegated to more of a potential piece in the secondary the following year, before finally earning an extensive role with the Bulldogs this past season
For anybody defensive back playing inside for Georgia, you have to take the coverage numbers and generally what they do with a slight grain of salt because of how well-coordinated they are on the back-end, as there may be a safety barreling if they break towards the middle of the field and it’s not a true two-/three-way go that needs to be defended individually. With that being said, Tykee Smith – quietly – had an incredible 2023 season, after he had been sort of out of sight since he transferred over from West Virginia two years prior. Since it’s been so long since we’ve last seen play deep in a starting capacity, it’s kind of tough to look at him as anything but a slot defender right now, but what he allows you to be in “big nickel” on paper, where that guy can be a tremendous run defender yet you don’t really lose anything from a coverage perspective, is highly valuable. He can be a chess piece to match up against tight-ends, but he’s equally useful roaming around and making plays on targets in his vicinity. I do feel compelled to say that he didn’t look as comfortable during Senior Bowl week, where he didn’t have help inside or over the top during those one-on-ones, but this is a day-one starter at nickel, as long as you don’t ask him to guard someone like Ceedee Lamb 20+ times a game.
10. Calen Bullock, USC
6’2”, 185 pounds; JR
One of the top-200 overall recruits in 2021, Bullock started half of 12 games as a true freshman and immediately made his presence felt, with 40 tackles, two interceptions and three pass break-ups. Year two he started all 14 contests, recording 58 total stops, five passes intercepted (one returned for a touchdown) and broken up each. While his picks went down to “only” two (one TD scored), he did increase his tackles (63) and PBUs (seven), improving from second- to first-team All-Pac-12.
Run defense & blitzing:
+ Was the third-most valuable safety in the country according to PFF’s wins above average (WAR) metric in 2022
+ Makes sure to maintain outside leverage when working up the alley from split-safety looks
+ You don’t ever see him get outraced to the sideline from single-high alignments
+ Does a nice job of breaking down in space and not allowing ball-carriers to dance around him in space
+ When he’s down low as a hole or flat defender, his ability to bring down the back one-on-one is excellent
+ You’d love for Bullock to be a little more physical as a tackler and not allow bigger players to drag him along, but a 10.6% miss rate for how much he was trusted as the last line of defense is solid
Zone coverage:
+ Loose mover on the back-end, who can pedal, open and swivels those hips around as if he was oiled up
+ Generally does a great job of positioning himself accordingly between routes as a deep zone defender and committing once it’s appropriate
+ For more of a lanky build, Bullock redirects well and you don’t feel like receivers can just neutralize him as deep help so to speak
+ You rarely see slot receivers have an opening on corner routes when he’s playing cover-two to his side
+ Shows the active eyes and instincts to take away multiple options dropping down as a robber/rat and dissuade quarterbacks from throwing touch-balls over his head
+ Offers premier ball-hawking skills when it comes to identifying opportunities and then elevating for passes with soft hands
+ Quickly covers ground coming forward to get hands on the intended target in front of him
+ Throwing curl routes against Bullock in match-coverage (cover-four/-six) can be challenging with how quickly he can erases that cushion and you better not do so late – ask Utah’s freshman QB, who served him up a pick-six
Man coverage:
+ After playing 69% as a deep safety in 2022, Bullock spent between 249 and 320 snaps between the slot, box and at deep (in that order) last season, to showcase some more versatility
+ Very calm in his pedal when he has to go backwards with tight-ends pushing vertically against him in man-coverage
+ Doesn’t need much of a transition period to turn with and then has the speed to hang with slot fade routes with cushion
+ Having 32.5-inch arms definitely helps to enable him to swipe at the ball when the receiver has half a step on him
+ Trails the motion-man under good control whilst not allowing himself to be outflanked or caught up in traffic typically
+ Effectively drives through the legs or clamps the legs of receivers in order to negate any YAC
+ Only surrendered six completions for 55 yards and half of those catches ended in “stops” for the defense, across 131 snaps and ten targets in man-coverage
Weaknesses:
– Earned PFF coverage grades above 80 each of the past two seasons, but in run defense he finished at only a 55.1 and a 49.0 respectively, where I feel like he’ll avoid getting involved on the tackle if possible
– Frequently has to curve his path due to poor initial angles down from the deep post and surrenders additional yardage in the process
– Has real issues dealing with tight-ends in the run game if you ask him to play down low on early downs or he’s lined up over them in the slot
– Too often just drifts way too deep just to not get beat over the top (especially playing center-field), but creates a lot of free real estate in front of him for the offense to attack – was responsible for a career-worst five touchdowns compared to two picks last season
– While it was more about the physicality and involvement as a tackler in 2022, last season he also actually nearly doubled his miss rate (13.5%)
This guy was a very challenging evaluation for me. Bullock generally projects best as a more traditional single-high free safety thanks to his range, ball-skills and while not a big hitter, the reliable tackling skills in space. However, his initial track to the football from that spot routinely needs to be altered and his unit ends up allowing bigger than necessary. I like what he can bring matching routes from depth or placing himself between them as a threat to take the ball away, but I don’t think he wants that smoke when offenses pull bigger bodies out to the corner or he has to deal extensively with tight-ends. He’s slender, the timed speed is adequate (4.48) but nothing crazy and he lacks some of that killer instinct of throwing his body around. With that being said, I understand the value of a defensive player who can create extra possessions, has his kind of fluidity and makes quarterbacks uncomfortable pushing the ball down the field if he’s in range. I just believe in today’s game, where you play with lighter box counts and need your safeties to actively involve themselves in the run fit even if they aren’t by alignment, he could be somewhat of a liability, hence why I have him this low.
Just missed the cut:
Evan Williams, Oregon
6’0”, 200 pounds; RS SR
A three-star recruit for Fresno State back in 2019, Williams already started five of 12 games played as a true freshman and then the four (of six) he was available for during the COVID-shortened follow-up campaign, combining for 67 tackles, one interception, four pass break-ups and two forced fumbles. The two ensuing years he was named first- and second-team All-Pac-12 respectively, combining for 159 total stops, 10.6 of those for loss, three picks, eight PBUs, one fumble forced and two more recovered. For his final year of eligibility – thanks to the 2020 exception – he transferred to Oregon, where he started 13 contests, recording 82 tackles, 4.5 sacks, two PBUs, one forced and two recovered fumbles. That earned him second-team All-Pac-12 accolades.
Run defense & blitzing:
+ Urgent in the way he involves himself against the run from depth
+ Has a knack for efficiently navigating around blockers in space and angling down towards the ball in optimal fashion
+ When receivers do shoot inside for him to wall him off, Williams is typically the one setting the tone at contact and popping their pads backwards
+ Races down in a hurry and comes to balance as a tackler to stop screen passes early
+ Hits with his chest and eyes up, along with providing great leg-drive
+ Frequently joins the party late and drops a shoulder on the ball-carrier as he’s being wrapped up, to make sure that guy goes backwards
+ Ferocious blitzer off the edge, particularly when capped over tight-ends in close splits to the offensive line – recorded five sacks and three other QB pressures on just 20 pass-rush snaps last season
+ Provides great effort chasing off the backside, but also doesn’t mind sticking his face in the fan against pulling guards
Zone coverage:
+ Excelled in a modern NFL-oriented defense, which typically was based out of two-high looks and relied on match-principles, yet rotated into the deep post quite regularly as well
+ Has tremendous instincts and spatial awareness as a deep zone defender
+ Efficiently deciphers through route combinations and positions himself accordingly with effortless movement skills in space
+ Closes ground quickly and rakes through the hands of the intended target on routes crossing his face in two-high shells, to contest the catch and not allow any additional yardage
+ Shows impressive awareness and vision to pick up/fall underneath crossers when dropping down as a robber/hole defender
+ Does a great job of cutting off number three in trips working towards the middle of the field as the boundary safety in quarters
Man coverage:
+ Comfortable capping over slot receivers and playing man with extensive cushion as the defense blitzes the nickel/overhang
+ When he was dropped down, he was able to deliver a solid punch and take control of routes early on, with a good combination of physicality and quickness
+ Displays impressive closing burst to shut down short completions before receivers can turn up the field when the offense tries to create an advantage through cross-releases vs. man-coverage
+ Not someone you’re going to take advantage of when manned up against slot receivers on crossing routes, taking the appropriate angles and holding them to basically no yards after the catch
+ Highly competitive at the catch-point to wrestle the ball out, while timing up and maximizing his length exceptionally well when he wraps around the target – was only flagged once over the past two years combined
+ Did get charged with a 73.0% completion rate as the next-closest defender in coverage, but on just 5.9 yards per target (218 yards on 37 targets) and one touchdown (one of two in his career on 1630 total snaps in coverage)
Weaknesses:
– Lacks elite range to be a primary center-fielder at the pro level
– Struggles to find the ball when he has to open his hips to stay on top of vertical routes in cover-two
– Wasn’t used much as a matchup player in coverage, who would bump down into the slot and man up against different body types
– His frame looks pretty maxed out and his arms are fairly short, as you’re projecting what he may look like dropping down into the box more regularly
– While you like he form and toughness as a tackler, with 4.6 speed and 30-inch arms, you’re looking at a rather limited tackling radius when he arrives on an angle – 15.3% career miss rate
I really wanted to find a way to fit Williams into the top ten because I believe he’s being completely lost in the shuffle, but he’ll have to settle for the first spot outside of it. It’s difficult to get beyond the physical measurables combined with the fact he didn’t intercept any passes over the last two seasons. So I already know that he’ll most likely go lower than I think he should, but in terms of what a safety in today’s game is being asked from two-high alignments, he can do pretty much everything at a high level. You want him to read the action from depth and cloud the picture for quarterbacks? Play 12 yards off and drive on the first break aggressively in match assignments? Get involved in the run fit to find entry points and counterbalance light box counts? – Sure, all of those above. He may have only run a 4.6 at the combine, but finished second among safeties with a 40.5-inch vertical and fourth with his 10’6” broad jump, before having the best on-field workout of the group – super clean in and out of breaks, oily hips and flexible ankles to flip, turn, locate the ball and catching it naturally. That came after a tremendous Senior Bowl week, where he was named the National team’s top safety, showing that he can excel during one-on-ones against the tight-ends, before putting his instincts on display for a tremendous goal-line INT in the actual game.
Sione Vaki, Utah
5’11”, 210 pounds; RS SR
One of the top-1000 national recruits back in 2019, after serving his two-year church mission, Vaki already started five of 14 games on defense along with heavy special teams usage in his first active football season, recording 41 total tackles, with 3.5 for loss, three pass break-ups and a forced fumble. In 2023, he started all 12 contests he was available for (51 stops, 8.5 TFLs, two sacks, an interception and two PBUs), along with being a hyper-efficient part-time running back, who turned just 53 touches into 520 yards and five touchdowns. That earned him first-team All-Pac-12 accolades at both safety and the all-purpose spot.
Run defense & blitzing:
+ Was regularly put down low and proved himself to be quality edge-setter in the run game
+ Outstanding lateral mobility to track wide zone concepts from the backside whilst keeping his shoulders level to the line of scrimmage
+ Generally does well to track the ball out to the sideline, coming to balance and shuffling along as the ball-carrier hesitates momentarily to not get juked
+ Has the force in his hands to punch off backs or tight-ends trying to lead up to him on sweep plays and to help wrap up the guy with the ball trying to follow
+ Shows the quick burst to navigate around bodies and wrap up the recipient of wide receiver screens
+ Does a nice job of squaring up in the alley as the ball-carrier has is being corralled and applying great stopping power with his chest to drive that guy backwards
+ Understands very well how to use the sideline as a 12th defender and leveraging guys on the run, not allowing them to cross him up typically
Zone coverage:
+ Easy in his pedal to gain depth in deep zone responsibilities
+ Moves around low and can change directions very well as a hook/overhang defender
+ Vaki’s ability to cover a lot of ground was used when Utah started him down low and had him fly out to a deep half or the post, to change up the picture on quarterbacks
+ Alert for crossing routes when he’s pulled up based on formation and playing zone down low, flying underneath them and forcing quarterbacks to find a different solution
+ Sorts through traffic well on divide concepts and other stuff where receivers release out of stacks/bunches, to locate who he’ll attach to
+ Does well to read the eyes of the quarterback and drift underneath routes in his vicinity, making that guy turn down throws
+ When he sees that ball come out, Vaki zooms up in a flash to shut down any YAC opportunities – delivering a good pop when he gets a chance – and he quickly barrels down on scrambling quarterbacks
Man coverage:
+ Packs a strong punch to impede the progress of tight-ends pushing at him in off-man
+ When lined up in (soft) press, Vaki has the quick laterally to match the release of his opponents and impede their progress, having to go through him
+ Very tight in his change of direction and doesn’t get lost against whip/pivot routes
+ Understands when to take his hands off the guy he’s covering in order to avoid getting flagged – zero penalties across basically 1000 defensive snaps
+ His speed was and affinity for contact was used blitzing off the edge a few times
+ Thanks to his ankle flexibility, he can turn a tight corner and dip underneath tight-ends staying in protection – on 17 pass-rush snaps last season, he logged nine pressures
+ While Vaki does want to play defense primarily, having someone in the pocket who averaged nearly ten yards per touch as a running back and who played slot receiver in high school is definitely a plus (also averaged an insane 47.6% missed tackles forced per carry)
Weaknesses:
– Needs to be a little more disciplined with his contain responsibility when he’s lined up over tight-ends and ends up having to lock horns with them
– Could do a better job of wrapping and driving through tackles on an angle, which those 29-inch arms definitely aren’t helpful at – missed 14.3% of attempted tackles last season
– On multiple occasions had to adjust his initial angle ranging out against vertical throws as a single-high safety
– There’s room to improve how he squeezes down space and to not gain excess width or depth as a deep half defender in particular
– According to PFF’s numbers, on 127 snaps in man-coverage last season, Vaki allowed eight of 11 targets his way to be completed for 96 yards and a touchdown (129.4 passer rating)
Vaki is one of the more interesting players in this draft. He came to Utah back in 2019 yet didn’t even see the field until two years ago and logged just under 1000 career snaps on defense, due to the church-mission he served. Considering the limited development opportunities, there’s a lot to like him about him on tape as kind of a do-it-all defensive back. Yet, I’m not so sure that if he committed to being a running back, he wouldn’t potentially be an early day-three pick based on that alone, considering how effective he was in limited capacity. Whether it’s positioning himself accordingly based on the pattern in zone coverage, staying true to his assignments against the run or finishing his tackles more reliably, there are still clearly things for him to iron out. Being fairly short and running a 4.62 at the combine won’t give him a big margin for error to prove himself to the coaches early on, but watching him go through the positional drills, there aren’t many guys who move and redirect as effortlessly as this guy. Combining that with his fearless attitude, I think he could be a core special teamer early on to earn opportunities to contribute on either – if not both – sides of the ball.
The next names up:
Jaylon Carlies (Missouri), Trey Taylor (Air Force), Dominique Hampton (Washington), Josh Proctor (Ohio State), Beau Brade (Maryland), Tyler Owens (Texas Tech), James Williams (Miami), Jaylin Simpson (Auburn) & Millard “Nook” Bradford (TCU)
Halil's Real Footballtalk 