It’s time! We’ve broken down in detail the best prospects at every single position now and we close that series out with the quarterbacks. Not only are these of course the most important players on the field, but this is the toughest group to evaluate, because of the different offensive systems they operate in, how we don’t fully understand what their decision-making is based on, with different coaching points and paths to arrive at that point, what they mental make-up looks like, the importance of their supporting case and so many other factors. There I don’t claim to be perfect – like nobody is, especially when it comes to this position – but we steadily try to learn, as the requirements for playing under center at a high level continue to change.
Looking at this year’s class, I believe we have a guy at the top who should be the number one overall pick in basically any draft – at least since I started dabbling into scouting about nine years ago. I believe there’s only one other name worthy of being a top-five selection and he’s being completely overthought. Three more quarterbacks have top-50 grades for me, before we get into a couple of mid-day two options. There are two names I look at as high-floor players with the potential to start for a couple in the right situation, before we get into day three flyers with intriguing arm talent and/or athletic skills.
Here’s what the list looks like for me:
1. Caleb Williams, USC
6’1”, 215 pounds; JR
A top-ten recruit and the second QB behind only Quinn Ewers, Williams took over for the struggling Spencer Rattler at Oklahoma in 2021 midway through their week four rivalry game against Texas, Over the whole season, he completed 64.5 percent of his passes for 1912 yards, 21 touchdowns and just four INTs, along with another 442 yards and six TDs on the ground, He decided to follow head coach Lincoln Riley to USC the following offseason, where he won the Heisman trophy and was a first-team All-American, thanks to completing exactly two thirds of his passes (333-of-500) for over 4500 yards and 42 touchdowns, compared to just five picks, along with nearly another 400 yards and ten scores on the ground
Physical make-up & arm talent:
+ His arm is like a toy, where he can play around with angle-angles, release points and speeds, yet his mechanics operating within structure are very clean
+ Shows some of the quickest hands you’re ever going to see, whether that’s throwing screens, hitting throws off RPOs – without having to get his base aligned perfectly – or aborting the fake on play-action
+ Can really hit that back-foot and rip the ball over the middle of the field – any type of curl/hook routes, he throws with conviction, driving the ball with great velocity
+ Features one of the prettiest deep balls in the country and formed an incredible connection with Jordan Addison at USC in 2022
+ Yet, he can also throw the ball on a line with the best of them and you see some lasers, with his feet not being aligned accordingly at all
+ Understands when to take speed off the ball and make it easy for his targets to catch and run with it
+ Can shorten up his strides as he hitches up into the pocket and create enough force with limited space around him
+ Has such a loose arm, where he just flicks it over his head whilst falling away on his back-foot or shortens his release as he has to wait that extra beat for the receiver to come open with the rush coming in
Processing & decision-making:
+ Every eligible is live at all times with Caleb, whether he’s operating time or he creates a secondary play
+ Looks comfortable spreading out the offense with empty sets and working the underneath areas in the quick game
+ Willing to take easy-access throws based on leverage or too much space in-between defenders
+ Is able to shorten his drop and zip in seam routes against shell coverages with too much cushion
+ Maintains his composure with pressure around him, whether he has to spin out of a sack and knows where to go with the ball once he gets his head back around, or has to release it whilst running up into the pocket
+ You consistently see a great base and the ability to pedal away from pressure points while staying ready to launch the ball
+ What makes Williams’ success in ’22 truly insane is that he had the highest time-to-throw mark among all NCAA quarterbacks with 200+ dropbacks (3.24 seconds), yet was near the bottom of the list with a turnover-worthy play rate of just 1.8%, and he led the FBS in with an insane PFF passing grade of 78.9 when under pressure, with just 2.0% of those plays being labeled as turnover-worthy, despite his time-to-throw going up to a college-high 4.62 seconds
+ In the 2023 season-opener against San Jose State, Williams had a play where he had to pick up a bad snap and was able to hit a receiver 45 yards from the launch-point off his back-foot almost with insane torque created through his hips
Playmaking in & out of the pocket:
+ Has the vision for secondary and tertiary windows for throws to guys working across the field
+ And he’s very sturdy back there, finding ways to slip off defenders and keep himself alive – He’s so strong in his lower half to shrug off potential sacks and still get the ball out
+ Intoxicating play-maker, who makes college defenders look like they’re little kids a lot of times with the way he can dance around, wiggle himself out of muddy pockets and create stuff playground-style
+ Some of the throws he can make whilst rolling to the left, snapping those hips around and drilling guys at the sideline to beat a trailing defender, are mind-boggling
+ It almost feels like Williams is playing with the defense at times, as he hangs at the top of his drop until the last possible moment, trying to wait out a throw down the field, before shooting through a lane and still getting positive yardage
+ Very shifty, making defenders miss with some impressive sideway jukes and incorporating some head-fakes, and you constantly see defenders stop their feet due to Williams giving them a little wiggle or head-fake and then being able to get around them
+ Stronger than his frame would indicate, to take hits and power through tacklers when needed in order to get to the sticks
+ Has that Patrick Mahomes quality, where he may not have the greatest timed speed, but he constantly looks faster than it and you saw some explosive runs when given a lane – Showed that on his very first series once he took over for Spencer Rattler at OU against Texas and he wiggled through the line before hitting the jets for a 66-yard touchdown
Weaknesses:
– Last season, there wasn’t a lot of “playing on time” and moments where he just takes the lay-up for solid yardage, in favor of looking down the field and eventually switching to creation mode – because he could
– Doesn’t read the positioning on go routes and/or places the ball appropriately to the back-shoulder for his guys at times
– You love the ability to make the football field his own playground, but he’ll need to learn when he can’t put the game all on him and try to make the impossible happen, while being loose with holding onto the ball
– His grades under pressure absolutely plummeted in 2023 – which manifested itself in the worst way against Notre Dame – as he went from number one to 113th in PFF grade with no pressure (93.4) compared to under pressure (39.1)
– Takes too many hits he doesn’t have to and still should learn when to throw the ball away a couple more times, as his pressure-to-sack conversion rate went from 16.0% to 23.2% between his two years as a Trojan
Caleb Williams has been the slam-dunk number one overall pick for the last two years and since I wasn’t around for actually evaluating Andrew Luck coming out of Stanford, he’s the best quarterback talent I’ve watched. Now, he’s certainly not perfect when it comes to the calibration of what he can get away with, avoiding negative plays and protecting his body. However, from a physical perspective and his ability to translate information on the fly, it’s all there for him to become of one the elites in the game. While we did see Caleb enter chaos mode more than you’d like this past season, a big reason was protection constantly breaking down and him having to move around, yet even though I did describe his style of play as backyard football-ish, what I did appreciate is him typically not bailing the pocket but battling to stay inside that space. The issue simply was that he would compound mistakes by trying to go beyond what the offense was delivering. Yet, since we all expect him to land in Chicago of course, I think he’ll have more reliable targets, at least solid protection and maybe most importantly – when he steps back onto the field, the other team didn’t score on every single possession. At USC, he went 12-0 when his defense allowed less than 34 points and five of eight losses came when they allowed 43+.
2. Drake Maye, North Carolina
6’4”, 225 pounds; JR
A top-ten quarterback recruit in 2021, Maye was an instant sensation for the Tarheels ever since taking over for Sam Howell under center as a true sophomore, and he was named the ACC’s Player of the Year, completing 66.2% of his passes for over 4300 yards and 38 touchdowns versus seven interceptions, along with another 700 yards and seven TDs on the ground. This past season, the numbers were down a little bit across the board (63.3% completion rate, 3600 passing yards, 450 rushing yards and 33 total TDs vs. nine INTs), which dropped him down to second-team all-conference.
Physical make-up & arm talent:
+ Brings excellent size and mobility for the position, along with the incredible arm talent
+ Has all the clubs in his bag as a thrower, being able to deliver with touch, different arcs and arm angles
+ Can absolutely rifle in dig-routes between the safety and defender on the hash
+ You see balls be placed perfectly away from trailing defenders and to where his guys can make plays on it 40+ yards down the field
+ Understands when to take heat off the ball as he’s just flipping it to somebody on the run
+ Has the requisite arm talent to deliver the ball without any platform to step into throws as defenses bring pressure and he’s fading away
+ You see some highly impressive touch throws fading and/or falling away with a defender coming free, as he lofts the ball in stride for one of his guys on longer-developing crossing routes
+ Drives balls to the sideline whilst rolling out as well as any QB in this class – the way he can flick the ball off the wrong foot whilst moving sideways, to either laser it to the sideline or deliver it over the top 40+ yards down the field seems way too easy
Processing & decision-making:
+ It feels like he has that poise and maturity already in his game, where things are just happening slower for him than the other 21 guys on the field
+ Had ten more big-time throws (45) than any other QB in the NCAA in ’22 (vs. 16 turnover-worthy plays), along with the highest PFF grade on deep passes (97.5), before finishing second in BTTs (35) and top ten in and TWP rate (1.9%), along with the third-highest deep passing grade in 2023 (96.8)
+ Playing static zone coverages, where you give Maye some soft spots to fire balls into is a death sentence
+ Isn’t afraid at all to attack tight windows and will go for those deeper throws instead of deferring to somebody with a leverage advantage underneath
+ His ability to feast on double-post concepts and heavy play-action with receiver crossing deep down the field was as good as any QB in the country, being able to make the right read on deep middle safeties and delivering optimal layered passes horizontally and/or vertically
+ Typically doesn’t panic and drop his eyes when he has to pat the ball an extra time
+ His pump-fake is a tool that can affect defenders on the back-end as well as guys trying to track him down, to make them look silly
+ The Tarheel coaches didn’t present him many answers vs. the blitz and he took sacks that he might not have if there was something built in – when the defense did declare on dummy-counts, he typically punished them for it
+ Watching the UNC tape, as good as Maye’s counting numbers were, they could’ve been significantly better if receivers were able to break away from their guys, were more friendly in terms of adjusting their routes or passes didn’t just go off their hands a couple of times every game, which he was charged for interceptions that weren’t actually on him at all
Playmaking in & out of the pocket:
+ So light on the balls of his feet bouncing around and consistently maintains a throw-ready posture, even as plays enter the secondary phase
+ Can bob and weave around the pocket, to create secondary plays, along with having the innate feel for how the picture is going to develop
+ Even as he’s got somebody wrapped his legs, there are times where Maye is able to still put throws on the money
+ Capable of creating a lot of torque and delivering the ball on the money across his body and against the direction he’s moving
+ More elusive than you might think, dipping away from bodies and slipping through creases – made some insane plays extending and finding escape paths before taking off as a runner himself, altering directions suddenly
+ Decisive when he does decide to take off himself and has some shocking wiggle to him, to make the first man miss
+ Bounces off some glancing shots and shrugs off guys trying to twist him down from the side, while being really tough to get a shot on QB sneaks in short-yardage and goal-line situations
+ Accounted for 42 conversions on third and fourth downs with his legs over the last two seasons combined
Weaknesses:
– Can be a little bit robotic with his mechanics with an error in the system, where he locks out his front-foot and doesn’t always get himself aligned to the target, which see his ball-placement suffer as a result of that
– Clicks his heels and drifts inside the pocket quite a bit, which creates more favorable angles for opposing pass-rushers, and he’s a little too early to take off when he has a chance to take an extra hitch and allow receivers to clear the coverage
– Regularly is a beat late on throws to guys who are tightly covered, but would create a small opening for the ball at the break-point and the separates that second hand from it, as he double-clutches at times (even if it’s understandable that he didn’t trust those guys a whole lot)
– Would benefit from getting to his checkdown a little bit quicker if nothing is available down the field and he just needs to keep the offense moving – let coverage dictate taking the free yardage
– Definitely has some hero ball tendencies that he needs to calibrate heading into the pros, where he still trusts his arm to whistle in balls with the window already closing or is still looking down the field with a defender wrapped around his legs, instead of throwing it away
Drake Maye has officially become the most overthought prospect in this draft. Yes, there are certainly things that need to be cleaned up in terms of his footwork and some of the subsequent (odd) misses, having to recreate that trust in his new teammates to not always put on the superman cape and some of the uber-aggressive decisions. However, I would rather have a guy who is willing to push the envelope and create big plays for my team than trying to instill that confidence to it rip. And something that isn’t brought up enough – only one of the interceptions he threw last season came on third or fourth down. So he wasn’t just throwing balls up there, but rather was trying to move the sticks and put points on the board, whilst being pressured on 33.5% of dropbacks over the past two seasons and dealing with a receiving corp with only one guy (Josh Downs) that I would’ve selected earlier than the fifth round – and even that guy he only had for 11 total games. What he offers in terms of size, arm talent, composure and mobility is exactly what the NFL is constantly looking for, even if he may be a little rough around the edges. That’s why I’d still be surprised if he isn’t the second player off the board and think it would be a mistake to take any of the other names on this list, who I believe are clearly a tier down from him.
3. Bo Nix, Oregon
6’2”, 215 pounds; RS SR
Nix came in as a top-100 recruited freshman with Auburn and won his first career game in a huge showdown versus Oregon with a game-winning TD pass to Seth Williams – the start of one of the most productive connections in the SEC from that point on. Over 8000 combined passing and rushing yards (800 on the ground) and 57 touchdowns later (versus 16 interceptions), he ended up transferring to the Ducks. He had a tremendous debut season for Oregon, with career-highs across the board – 71.9 completion percentage, 3593 passing yards, 29 passing TDs (versus seven INTs), plus rushing yards and 14 scores on the ground. Yet, his numbers were even more spectacular this past season, completing 77.4% of his passes for 4508 yards (9.6 YPA) and 45 touchdowns compared to only three interceptions, along with another six scores on the ground. He “only” finished third in the Heisman voting, but the Pac-12 recognized him as their Offensive Player of the Year over Washington’s Michael Penix Jr. – the only team Oregon lost to (twice).
Physical make-up & arm talent:
+ Was far from a pin-point passer when he came in, but has really improved with his consistency in accuracy and has become a much more capable pocket passer
+ While the Oregon offense feasted on spacing and leverage advantages underneath, Nix has some highly impressive layered throws on tape, to beat defenders below and just behind the target
+ Correctly reads and places the ball beautifully away from defenders on slot fade routes
+ Has no issues driving the ball to the sideline whilst rolling to either side, getting his shoulders squared up when going left, to hit even deep outs and comebacks
+ Delivers some real zingers into the honey-hole against soft cover-two looks
+ Can put plenty of mustard on the ball whilst on the move, being able to fire the ball into his guys on the sideline, even with a defender on their back-hip or he may be releasing off the wrong foot
+ Finished just 0.1% behind the top mark for adjusted completion percentage among all QBs with 100+ dropbacks in 2022 (82.3%) and then set the record for raw completion percentage for a season this past year (77.4%)
Processing & decision-making:
+ His ability to play on time and target in a more traditional dropback offense his first year at Oregon was stunning for me, in particular with the quick decision-making necessary for their spread approach
+ You give him off-coverage on the outside and he will just hammer away with his hitches and speed-outs all day long
+ Regularly beats defenders with the throw, as they’re driving on the route and the ball is placed away from those guys, also allowing them to spin/turn away for yards after the catch
+ The way he adds in that extra hitch to give his receivers to break open as they work across the field or generally towards grass was big in 2022 – You saw great patience on several occasions on muddy looks when they ran mesh concepts and he needed to let those get sorted out, at times with receivers running into each other
+ Tremendous with maintaining a vertical passing stature throughout, with his front-shoulder tilted up a little bit, before flipping it out to his back, as the defense is now drawn way back and it leads to some massive gains
+ Showcases impressive awareness for guys dropping out of overloaded looks and then the patience to slide away from pressure and allow his receivers to clear those guys, understanding they’ll simply get to a spot
+ Nix has become so much more mature with just throwing the ball out of bounds as he’s approaching the sideline or dirting it to the feet of his back, indicated by an FBS-low 1.0% turnover-worthy play rate in 2023
+ Massively improved his play under pressure in year one with the Ducks, with the same PFF grade in those situations (70.8) as Alabama’s Bryce Young, and then improved that to an insane mark of 91.2 last season – only Jayden Daniels and HE HIMSELF put up a better overall passing grade than that
Playmaking in & out of the pocket:
+ Has that mindset of extending plays and creating explosives, with the slippery ability to set up those opportunities
+ Is able to direct back towards the line of scrimmage after getting sideways and hitting receivers streaking vertically
+ When he does throw balls off platform and even across his body at times, he typically does so pulling his targets back down and away from coverage
+ Understands how to manipulate rush angles in order to set up lanes for himself to slice through, often times pulling them too far up the field and then taking off
+ Was an elite sack-avoider at Oregon, registering the eighth-lowest pressure-to-sack conversion rate among all FBS QBs with 100+ dropbacks each of the past two seasons (6.5 and 7.6% respectively)
+ Features the mobility to get away from the rush the rip off big chunks if you play man or don’t have a spy on him – You better be disciplined in your rush lanes
+ Pulls his feet out of the grasp of would-be tacklers from the side regularly, averaging 9.6 yards per scramble and producing first downs on 67 of his 100 total carries over the past two years combined
+ Has the burst to get out to the corner if edge defenders take a couple of shuffle steps inside against read option plays with a tight-end leading after coming across the formation and stuff like that – definitely helps out his backs with the way he carries out play-fakes and pulls edge defenders with him due to the potential of him getting around the edge on zone read and similar concepts
+ Recognizes where the bubble is for the defensive line and how he can squeeze through in order to convert in short-yardage on sneak plays
Weaknesses:
– You see him pat the ball and make himself vulnerable for getting stripped a lot, if the primary read isn’t there – which it was with great frequency
– Just blindly trusts play designs at times and even though they’re clearly not there, just pulling the trigger anyway – Georgia’s defenses have eaten Nix alive, understanding where those offenses wanted to attack them and having people in those areas
– Gained more yards on screens (749) than any other QB in the FBS and you rarely see him throw those intermediate routes to either sideline, with a bottom-ten mark in percentage of air yards (38.8%)
– Not somebody who will re-set his base working through progressions without moving off the spot, becoming a first-read-and-create type of QB
– You’d still like to see Nix still calm his feet and use intricate, subtle movement around the pocket more efficiently
While you don’t really see this type of profile project well to the pro level, considering Bo set the NCAA record for quarterbacks with 60 collegiate starts, the continued growth he’s showcased has turned around the opinions of a lot of analysts – including me – who didn’t consider him a serious draft profile a few years ago at Auburn still. I never thought we’d see him operate this cleanly and pick apart defenses as a pre-snap decision-maker as he did in Oregon’s spread passing attack. Because Nix was asked to play a lot more in-structure and work underneath, has made people forget he can absolutely attack all areas of the field and that he’s more than capable of creating second-reaction plays whilst breaking the rules of the defense. That’s what makes him intriguing to me, because I believe he has the requisite arm talent and now also mental capacities to work the entirety of the field, while still having that playmaker gene and being able to pick up crucial yardage himself if necessary. Seeing him struggle so much with consistent accuracy during the Senior Bowl certainly damped that enthusiasm to some degree, but considering how much he was able to rely on guys being in specific spots these past two seasons with the Ducks, it is somewhat understandable. I believe for a team that wants him to be that triggerman rather than condensing formations and not giving him a lot of clean pictures – which will be a challenge to adjust with less on his plate based on offensive designs and defensive looks – he can be a quality starter for a long time worthy of going in the mid- to late-first round.
4. Jayden Daniels, LSU
6’3”, 210 pounds; SR
The third-highest ranked quarterback in the 2019 recruiting class, Daniels completed 60.7 percent of his passes for just under 3000 yards and 17 touchdowns versus two INTs as a true freshman at Arizona State. He only appeared in four games of a shortened 2020 season and put up pretty much the same per-game numbers, before elevating his completion percentage to 65.4% as a junior, but his yards per attempt (7.9) went down and he tossed the same number of TDs as INTs (ten each). Daniels transferred to LSU ahead of the 2022 season and led the Tigers to an SEC title game appearance, accounting for over 2900 yards and seven TDs versus only three INTs through the air, along with nearly 900 yards and 11 TDs on the ground. This past season he took his game to a new level, putting up new career-highs in completion rate (72.2%), passing yards (3812), yards per attempt (11.7), rushing yards (1134), yards per carry (8.4) and total touchdowns (50), whilst only throwing four interceptions. That earned him the Heisman trophy.
Physical make-up & arm talent:
+ Despite having that lanky build, Daniels packs a pretty compact release and clean, repeatable mechanics
+ Can whip the ball out in a hurry if his receivers are about to get to voided space on spot or sit routes, where you see his speed up his drop and get his feet set in a hurry
+ Delivers the ball on time and target on deeper in-breaking routes, being able to beat driving safeties with the throw
+ Has the whippy arm to hit guys in the chest on wrap-around and digs after clearing the underneath defense
+ Doesn’t need a lot of space to hitch up and create velocity as a thrower and even when he has to retreat, he has the flexible arm to deliver with a high trajectory
+ Very accurate outside the numbers on vertical shots and was one of the most effective slot fade throwers college football has ever seen when you take his 2023 highlight reel, dropping them perfectly into the bucket – hit three touchdowns exactly that way to start the 2023 Ole Miss game
+ Took advantage of his bigger targets in the red-zone and goal-to-go situations, delivering the ball helmet or higher
+ Shows the flexibility on pocket-movement stuff to roll one way yet deliver the ball to a target that is level to him on a horizontal level seemingly effortlessly
Processing & decision-making:
+ What you like about Daniels inside the pocket is that he rarely bails but rather climbs up and then takes off through lanes that present itself to him
+ Yet if the middle is clean, he will bounce on the spot and can push the ball way down the field as his receivers break free late
+ Consistently reads leverage the right way and makes the correct decision on spacing concepts
+ Got better last season at progressing to in-cuts from the backside if he didn’t like what happened to the field (with trips sets)
+ Quick to get his cleats into the ground speed up his process by replacing a blitzer or attacking voided space on coverage rotations
+ Correctly reads leverage of his receivers on go balls, whether he allows them extra room to detach or puts a lower trajectory on it when hitting them back-shoulder
+ Shows the ability to get split-field safeties turned the wrong way with the direction of his helmet and shoulder-fakes
+ When he does take and miss shots down the field late, it’s always to where the pass falls incomplete, rather than giving defenders chances to make plays on it
+ His 0.6% turnover-worthy play rate in 2022 was the lowest mark among all FBS quarterbacks with 100+ dropbacks and his 1.6% rate in 2023 was tied for fourth-lowest, compared to the third-highest big-time throw rate (8.4%)
Playmaking in & out of the pocket:
+ Does a nice job of manipulating rush angles by gaining further deep and forcing defenders to overrun him, as he works back up towards the line of scrimmage
+ Electric dual-threat QB, who can eat up ground quickly as a runner and looks like he’s gliding as he goes horizontally or vertically
+ On designed carries, he understands how to get second-level defenders to commit or D-linemen to peak inside of blocks, before making them wrong for doing so
+ The subtle adjustments on the fly without ever losing speed was something that showed up over and over again, as he efficiently navigated around bodies in space and took advantage of his teammates helping him out by landing blocks down the field
+ This guy is one of the most slippery moves you will ever find, where routinely you feel like he will be taken down, but somehow he gets by defenders
+ Has that ability to make tacklers miss in a phonebooth frequently by putting on the breaks in a heartbeat and making guys fly by
+ Never feels like he’s straining as a runner, getting away from defenders in second gear and routinely pulling his knees up and feet out of the grasp of would-be tacklers
+ Displays true angle-destroying speed when he splits defenders in the back-seven or strides down the sideline
Weaknesses:
– Lacks some rhythm to his drops, to where the ball comes out in order to hit timing-based routes right as they come out of the break and too often places the ball slightly behind his targets on crossers or flat routes, slowing down his guys and negating big YAC opportunities
– Still very much a one-read-and-go quarterback, who was able to turn a lot of plays into positives thanks to his legs without reading the field and on nearly half the snaps where he’s asked to move off the spot, he ends up running instead of becoming a “pocket play-maker” who keeps his eyes up even as he moves around
– Registered a pressure-to-sack conversation rate of above 20% in all five seasons as a starter and last season in particular, only 50.6% of his pressured dropbacks even resulted in a pass attempt, speaking to his eyes dropping once he sees any color flashing
– Until this past season, he tended to be too conservative as a decision-maker and had drives stall on him, because he wouldn’t attempt more tight window throws, while in 2023 the answer a lot of times was taking shots outside to his two incredible receivers, who came through for him constantly
– 49% of his total passing yards that year came on hitches or fades – His willingness to attack and the accuracy at doing so over the middle of the field is very limited
– The comparison to Johnny Knoxville some people have made is very fitting when he takes off, looking at how he’ll run into defenders like a young Josh Allen, as if he wasn’t super skinny and somebody might snap him in half
Since the most common comparison for Daniels is two-time Ravens MVP Lamar Jackson, I have to say that it was unfair to put these on the same level as far as their Heisman campaigns are concerned, considering the difference in weapons those two had around each other, as well as how it relates to their NFL projection. Jayden has shown continued improvement in terms of ball-placement, in particular attacking the defense vertically, and as a decision-maker. As I like to say with true dual-threat guys, his legs can buy him time for the development that has to make place mentally, as it provides an additional element – as long as he learns how to protect himself. I do however believe that he still has a long road ahead of him as a progression-style passer and problem solver when opposing teams are able to take that dimension away from him structurally. As incredible as Daniels’ numbers were during that Heisman campaign, he was 1-3 vs. ranked opponents and in blowout wins over Georgia State, Army and Grambling State, he put up 17 TDs and no INTs. With his willingness to hang in the pocket, I can see him putting up some big numbers if he adds more touch throws on the intermediate level to his arsenal and is paired up with an offensive play-caller who can enhance his strengths, but I believe there’s a steep drop from the top tier of Caleb Williams and Drake Maye when you think about the different avenues through which they can win.
5. Michael Penix Jr., Washington
6’3”, 220 pounds; RS SR
Just outside the top-500 overall recruits in 2018, Penix ended up redshirting his true freshman season three games in for him due to a torn ACL. Over the next two seasons, he completed 61.6 percent of his passes for over 3000 yards and 24 touchdowns versus eight interceptions, plus four more TDs on the ground. Penix threw a couple of pick-sixes against Iowa in the 2021 season-opener and was lost for the year in the Maryland game (fourth week in) unfortunately, before deciding to transfer to Washington ahead of the 2022 season, where he re-established himself to the nation, with career-bests across the board (65.3 completion %age, 4641 yards and 31 TDs vs. 8 INTs), making him the second-team All-Pac-12 selection behind Heisman winner Caleb Williams. This past year, not only did he make first-team all-conference, but also finished behind only LSU’s Jayden Daniels for the Heisman Trophy and All-American ballots, whilst receiving the Maxwell award, given to the best quarterback in the country,
Physical make-up & arm talent:
+ Has a rocket launcher attached to his left shoulder, which enables him to threaten the whole field and test tight windows as well as drop it into the bucket for streaking receivers
+ At Washington, you were able to see his balls cut through the wind on days while the quarterback on the other side struggled, splitting hook-linebackers and safeties in two-high looks with absolute lasers regularly
+ Fully capable of launching the ball from one hash all the way towards the opposite sideline to drop it into the bucket for guys on slot fade routes
+ He’s not afraid of far-hash throws in the 10-19 yard range and he really rips those deep curls and digs that other quarterbacks are hesitant with at times
+ Capable of speeding up his release process and getting the ball out with his feet not aligned at all as he’s just getting into his dropback, when he sees an easy access throw present itself, even outside the numbers
+ Has the ability to alter his arm slots and side-arm some RPO slants/glance routes after riding the back initially or get it out quicker from his hip on guys sitting down in voids of zone coverage
+ When throwing the ball over the head of shallow zone defender, you see him add some arc to those balls and not allow guys to just get a hand on it
+ You can do some pocket movement stuff and ask him to launch the ball to guys way across the field, where he features a quick shoulder turn to get set up
Processing & decision-making:
+ His ball-placement generally is often to where only his receiver can get their hands on it, leading guys towards the sideline or putting it high and away from the position of the defender – Just one of his 20+ yard passing attempts was deemed “turnover-worthy” by PFF, which was actually picked off
+ Recognizes when a corner has his back turned and isn’t in position to defend the back-shoulder fade, constantly giving guys the upper hand on those
+ Even though that Ryan Grubb offense thrived on attacking down the field, it also accentuated Penix’s ability to tear apart static defensive looks, whether it’s pre-snap alignment advantages or how they put shallow zone defenders into conflict
+ Does well to get single-high safeties turned the wrong way, in order to let it fly towards the opposite sideline
+ Has those big 10.5-inch hands to make those full-on hard pump fakes with his second hand off the ball and he sets up shot plays very well, where he may fake a screen one way and then quickly re-sets to fire backside post routes
+ Doesn’t need a whole lot of space to spread the ball all across the field like a garden sprinkler, sort of shooting from the hip
+ Not afraid to hang in the pocket with the walls kind of closing away, to allow routes to develop and fire the ball in there
+ There were so many plays where Penix stood in until the last possible moment with a rusher barreling in and pulling that quick trigger to whip throws
+ Led the FBS with 43 big-time throws last season – eight more than any other QB (Drake Maye) – yet only had a 2.0% turnover-worthy rate (tied for 12th)
Playmaking in & out of the pocket:
+ Excels at sliding to a clean platform, which he can launch it from, without getting into actual scramble mode
+ Yet he can also roll outside the pocket and throw the ball with touch to receivers working across the field along with him
+ Can sort of disengage his upper and lower body from each other and make throws without a clean platform or his feet cockeyed, purely thanks to his arm, which others would barely be able to hit with their base aligned properly
+ Had an insane play against USC in 2023, where he spun to the left, pumped multiple times and ultimately lofted the ball just before going out of bounds to one of his receivers running along the back-line of the end-zone from about 35 yards away
+ Featured the lowest pressure-to-sack conversion rate among all NCAA QBs with 100+ dropbacks (3.2%) in 2022, while his average depth of target actually increased to about 1.5 of the mark he had when kept clean (14.7 yards) – last season he was still 7.6% in terms of P2S rate and his ADOT under pressure was even higher (15.5 yards)
+ While it didn’t show up a whole lot with the Huskies, where he simply didn’t run a lot, Penix running right around a 4.5 and having elite jumps at his pro day is a reminder that he is a better athlete than he’s given credit for, and you see flashes when there’s someone coming unblocked off the edge and he sprints up to the line of scrimmage or he escapes the pocket in order to extend
+ Certainly has that gamer mentality, which is how we led the Huskies to an undefeated National Championship game appearance, five wins of six ranked teams, averaging well over 300 passing yards and 13 TDs vs. only two INTs
Weaknesses:
– When you look at where balls end up across the entire sample size, I’d certainly define it as general accuracy rather than pin-point ball-placement for Penix, when it’s not based on leverage throws vs. tight coverage
– As many big plays as he delivers through the air, he misses more deep balls than you’d like to see, because he doesn’t lead the motion with his back-foot and bring his entire body through, since he relies so heavily on his arm
– Frequently will stare down his primary read extensively and at times even be flat-footed as he watches it develop, and he did have three potential top-75 picks at receiver along with arguably the top pass-protecting O-lines in the country to not get punished for it
– Showcases questionable pocket presence at times, where he’ll slide closer towards pressure points or fall away unnecessarily, while lacking the quick-twitch, to make rushers up the middle miss
– You have to wonder how NFL decision-makers will look at a 24-year-old with an extensive injury history, not finishing any of his four seasons with Indiana healthy (two ACLs and shoulder surgeries each)
Back in December, I argued that Michael Penix should win the Heisman Trophy, thanks to not only the numbers he put up, but how he helped the Huskies through an undefeated season in college football’s top conference, thanks to timely plays in the biggest moments. Then watching his two playoff games, it painted a fairly clear picture as to what his NFL projection looks like. Against Texas, where you kind of knew what you were getting pre-snap and left the possibility to get receivers isolated, Penix was absolutely shredding them. Facing Michigan in the national title game, where they’d change the picture on him, flushed him out of the pocket and forced him to create secondary reaction plays, he definitely struggles. And that’s fairly concerning, based on the fact that like a quarter NFL now runs a very similar defensive scheme, which was popularized by what Mike Macdonald was able to do in Baltimore. So it’ll be very interesting if he can process information post-snap at a higher level going forward and how much that more statuesque type of player can still succeed in today’s NFL. While you do see some concepts that also show up in playbooks across the league, they won’t be able to dictate to defenses nearly at the same level and it’s when he needs to adapt, such as on unanticipated simulated pressure, that he struggles. Ultimately, I believe he has the potential to put up explosive numbers in a vertically-oriented passing attack, but he’ll need to anticipate windows over the middle of the field better and not be as reliant on working outside the numbers in order to be a long-term starter.
6. J.J. McCarthy, Michigan
6’3”, 215 pounds; JR
A top-50 national recruit in 2021, McCarthy was limited to clean-up duties as a true freshman before taking over the starting gig in year two, when he completed 64.6 of his passes for 2719 yards and 22 touchdowns versus five interceptions, along with another 306 yards and five TDs on the ground, leading the Wolverines to their second straight Big Ten championship and CFP appearance. He slightly bettered those numbers in 2023, completing 72.3% of his passes for 2991 on 9.0 yards per attempt and 22 TDs vs. four INTs (plus three rushing TDs). That earned him first-team All-Big notice.
Physical make-up & arm talent:
+ Smooth, consistent throwing motion, with a basketball-like follow-through
+ Allowed the Wolverines to open up the offense a little bit more, with a wider spread look to it, because he could attack all areas of the field
+ Features pro-ready drops and sells the exchange well as part of Michigan’s play-action heavy approach, attacking the intermediate-to-deep range where he needed to bounce an extra time or two for the picture to clear up
+ At his best throwing over the middle of the field with routes coming into his vision, where he shows no fear fitting the ball between defenders
+ Has the arm strength to fire in tight window passes, where he beat closing defenders with the throw, and there are no issues driving speed outs from the opposite hash
+ Very capable of defeating defenders stacked over the top of his intended target with power throws to the back-shoulder, in particular tight-ends down the seams
+ Accurate passer on the run, who has no problem spinning it without slowing down – delivers those passes between the second and third level whilst rolling outside with ease as well as when he has to go slightly across the direction he’s moving
+ Shows some flexibility in his arm as he’s fading or releasing off the wrong foot whilst on the move
Processing & decision-making:
+ Recognizes leverage and spacing advantages pre-snap and gets the ball there in a hurry, with Michigan using a lot of man/zone indicators to create those favorable looks
+ Quick to get to his back on hooks when the defense voids the middle of the field or the hook-droppers widen a lot
+ Understood how OC Sherrone Moore wanted to put zone defenders in conflict and showed the patience to force those guys to commit before hitting the open receiver
+ Shows the ability to hold safeties dropping down with his eyes at one hash when he wants to hit digs and similar routes coming that way
+ In 2023, the Wolverines started to allow him to make more “big-boy throws” and you see the arm talent to put the ball on the money driving it on routes breaking towards the sideline in the intermediate-to-deep range
+ In particular, those over routes off heavy play-action, in between defenders converging from multiple directions, where the ball needs some arc but also a good amount of pace
+ You really like McCarthy’s projection into a wide zone-based offense, with his ability to make reads on three-level concepts off bootlegs and put the ball onto the chest of guys on crossers
+ On third-and-seven plus, he this past season went 35-of-48 for 537 yards, with 27 of those 35 completions resulting in either a first down of touchdown (six of those)
Playmaking in & out of the pocket:
+ Generally keeps both hands on the ball and maintains a throw-ready posture as he slides or shuffles inside the pocket, yet he can also hitch up in explosive fashion as the space around him closes down
+ Sudden with the way he turns his throwing shoulder away from an oncoming rusher and dips underneath them screaming off the edge
+ Features a quick spin to get out to his blindside (on the left) and re-gain a throwing position and effortlessly creates velocity to hit guys at the sideline as they convert their routes
+ Legitimately has the wheels to get away from rushers who seem to have an angle on him
+ Slippery athlete for the position, who can pick up crucial first downs with his legs if defenses leave a lane open in front of him – averaged 9.3 yards per scramble last season (18 for 168 yards)
+ Surprised guys on the edge of the box or DBs coming up when he pauses for a split-second and then kicks into top gear, in order to beat them to the sideline
+ Has some real wiggle to him as he maneuvers around defenders on the second level, as well as the elusiveness to turn his body away from defenders trying to grab him on the way by – forced 18 missed tackles on 39 carries last season
+ You can actually run QB counter (bash) with him and you’ll see him press in order to set up cuts underneath blocks effectively
Weaknesses:
– Michigan’s offense really struggled to move the ball for stretches, when they faced defenses that could stop the run, with McCarthy looking indecisive in pure dropback situations, where he’d end up escaping the pocket and get tracked down due to the angles he took
– Has a bad tendency of overstriding on his release, especially passing to his left, and air-mails some balls because of it
– Doesn’t throw deep outside the numbers with the appropriate trajectory a lot of times, which would give his guys the ability to run underneath the ball
– Leads underneath defenders towards the intended target with his eyes quite a bit – in particular, he tips off flat-defenders the whole way when he locks in on some speed-outs and similar routes
– Could be labeled a bit of a “drifter” in the pocket and doesn’t look particularly comfortable when he isn’t presented a clean platform, while having had the benefit of a lot of clean surroundings, in 2022 especially, and would grind away a lot of games with their run game, to where he only attempted more than 30 passes once last season, including eight(!) in a win over Penn State
McCarthy is one of the toughest players for me to evaluate in this entire draft. For large stretches of games he wasn’t asked to take over the offense and when he did have to step up at times, they couldn’t move the ball in traditional dropback settings. With that being said, the arm talent and elusiveness are clearly there to deliver high-level throws and make things happen outside the pocket. At this point, I don’t see the type of consistently excellent decision-making or accuracy to have the offense be put on his shoulders and would like to see him join one of the offsprings of the Shanahan tree, which enhances his throwing on the move and opens up the middle of the field for him. If he’s asked to process information beyond what’s presented to him pre-snap, outside of reading one key or holding a defender with his eyes, I’d be worried about his problem-solving skills. At best, he would be afforded a year to learn and allow things to slow down for himself at practice rather than live situations, which I believe could make him crumble early on his career. To me he’s still fairly raw and doesn’t wow me talent-wise to a point where I’d be willing to invest anything higher a late first-round pick into this project. I get what the NFL is seeing, people rave about his mental makeup and the tape certainly makes him more intriguing than the broadcast did, but I just don’t know how you can have watched him these last couple of years and think this is a top-five pick.
7. Spencer Rattler, South Carolina
6’0”, 210 pounds; RS SR
The number one QB in the 2019 recruiting class, Rattler was a highly touted QB prospect coming out of high school, but had to sit behind Jalen Hurts in 2019. He then came out in the 2020 season opener only to go 14 of 17 for 290 yards and four TDs. In 11 games that year, Rattler completed 67.5 percent of his passes for just over 3000 yards and 28 TDs compared to seven INTs, plus another six scores on the ground. In 2021 it all collapsed for Rattler, having some shaky moments from the start, before finally being benched for the talented Caleb Williams and going on to transfer to South Carolina. In his debut campaign with the Gamecocks, he completed 66.2% of his passes for just over 3000 yards and 18 TDs vs. 12 INTs, while leading the program to its best record since 2017 (8-and-5). And he actually slightly improved across the board on all of those individual numbers – 68.9% completion rate, 3186 yards, 19 TDs vs. eight INTs, plus four scores on the ground – while earning team captain duties for a second year in a row.
Physical make-up & arm talent:
+ Doesn’t have a lot a lot of wasted movement overall and creates easy velocity, whether he can really step into and drive throws to either sideline or torques his hips without space to still deliver 40+ yards down the field
+ Can throw some lasers and has the arm talent to do so off RPOs, where he doesn’t need to bring the rest of his body into it
+ Has that flick of the wrist when dropping balls into the bucket down the field, like you see with Aaron Rodgers
+ Has a good feel for when he can take speed off the ball and put it out in front of his guys on crossers
+ Can ride those fake handoffs for a long time or pull defenses in with a deep dropback before flicking the ball to guys in the screen game
+ Quick to set his feet and create a throwing platform, off rollouts and play-action
+ Yet he has plenty of passes on tape with his feet being in awkward positions or off the ground altogether and him being able to “all-arm” throws that you typically would pull your hair out as a coach if other guys attempted those
+ Led the FBS with an 83.7% adjusted completion rate when kept clean in 2022, among QBs with 100+ dropbacks, and it was even slightly better last season (84.0%)
Processing & decision-making:
+ Understands how to lead receivers away from trail-defenders with ball-placement, whether that’s slightly towards the middle when his guy has the DB on his hip-pocket or to the back-shoulder and a little further out to the sideline if those two are about even
+ Makes sure to stop his target in the window against zone coverage, in particular vs. honey-hole shots vs. two-deep
+ I thought the move to South Carolina kind of re-lit that fire inside of Rattler, where he became tougher from within the pocket, to stare at the face of pressure and let the ball fly with a rusher barreling in on him
+ While there can still be some chaos to his game, he has clearly worked on calming his eyes and feet as a pocket passer
+ Climbs up to the line of scrimmage with a good balance between staying ready to throw and turning himself into a runner, with the twitch to negate rush angles
+ Understands where his outlets are and even as he’s getting into creation made, where to find them if nothing else opens up
+ Has improved his maturity with throwing the ball away outside the pocket
+ Going up against Georgia in 2023 – when the Gamecocks were up 14-3 at halftime – I thought Rattler had several big-time throws, ripping deep in-cuts, putting just enough air under balls towards the sideline to get it over ancillary zone defenders, etc.
Playmaking in & out of the pocket:
+ Has definitely worked on his ability to manipulate the pocket and buying time in order to wait out routes taking a little longer as they’re going to break towards open space
+ You also see it when he’s spinning towards the left or drifting that way, being able to square his shoulders and hit guys on the run (in particular crossers) in a secondary window
+ Impressive ability to pedal away from rushers closing in and getting enough zip on the ball to hit throws coming into his vision
+ Capable of making guys miss who seem to have a clear shot at him, and stay poised with his eyes down the field
+ Even as he decides he can’t dart through a lane and escapes the pocket, being able to re-locate targets and hit them on the move is something I noted a few times
+ A couple of times per game it looks he’s run himself into trouble or is about to get wrapped up in a pile, yet he gets out of there, locates one of his targets and can flick it there
+ Slippery with the ability to find escape lanes and rips off more yards with his legs than the defense typically treats him like, and he’s sturdier as well to survive glancing shots
+ Was pressured on an insane 37.9% of dropbacks last season, which makes his 7.9% sack rate fairly low
Weaknesses:
– Not always a pin-point passer, where he’ll have a receiver working towards the middle of the field and leads him back into contact too often
– There are certainly still some questionable decisions on tape, trying to beat defenders late who are already driving on routes – Logged the same amount of big-time throws as turnover-worthy plays over his two years in Columbia (33) and in 2022, he had the fourth-highest TWP rate under pressure (9.1%) among QBs with 100+ dropbacks
– Kind of oblivious to free rushers and puts himself in some tough situations, that he won’t get out of nearly as frequently at the next level; And we’ve seen it on multiple occasions, when he’s not totally comfortable, where he just keeps backing up and kind of bailing out of the pocket
– Misjudges his ability to get away from the rush and how long escape lanes will be open on numerous occasions and takes a lot of sacks because of it – 20.2% pressure-to-sack conversion rate for his career
– Below-average athlete for today’s game, who doesn’t impress with speed (4.95 in the 40), explosiveness or power as a runner
What I appreciated most when he was a very young player was his ability to not get distracted with the rush and be aware of where his guys were on the field. That definitely went away for a while and Rattler sort of felt like a broken player. However, he turned himself into a different version of himself at South Carolina, while maintaining the arm talent that got him the recruiting hype coming out of high school. The total numbers do not match up with any of the guys ahead of him in these rankings, but his supporting cast was also among the worst in college football. Last season in particular, Xavier Legette did have a breakout season, but the next-leading pass-catcher had just 312 yards, they averaged 2.8 yards per carry as a team and South Carolina’s offensive line had a different five-man combination in 10 of 12 games. The decision-making and self-awareness are still not up to NFL standards, but he’s found so much more maturity in his game and the arm talent is legitimately special. I outlined his skill-set as one of “my guys” a couple of weeks ago and also said there, that I’d much rather invest a mid-day two pick into this guy who I could see turn himself into a future starter than taking any of these four guys in the second tier I just described with a top-ten pick.
8. Michael Pratt, Tulane
6’2”, 210 pounds; SR
A three-star recruit in 2020, Pratt immediately started nine of ten games as a true freshman and was in the lineup for all 24 contests the following two seasons combined for the Green Wave, helping them get a monstrous Cotton Bowl win over Heisman trophy winner Caleb Williams and USC. He improved his numbers every year, throwing for just over 3000 passing and just under 500 rushing yards, completing 63.6% of his passes, with 27 touchdowns through the air and another ten on the ground, compared to five interceptions as a junior. This past season – despite getting banged up early on and only starting 11 games – he arguably was even better, completing 65.4% of his passes for 2400 yards, accounting for 27 TDs vs. only five INTs yet again. He was recognized as the AAC Offensive Player of the Year, one season after seeing former teammate Tyjae Spears (now running back for the Titans) take home those honors.
Physical make-up & arm talent:
+ Unlike many of these AAC quarterbacks who operate in a spread offense, Pratt clearly has NFL arm talent and accuracy
+ Quick hands and release to deliver throws in the RPO and quick game along with screens, with his targets having maximum time to make things happen after the catch
+ Has beautiful touch on deep balls, as his streaking receivers don’t have to break stride at all – if his guy just has a step, that’s typically it
+ Perfectly delivers bang-eight routes vs. cover-three, before the safety can fly over
+ Excels lofting passes over flat defenders and hitting those intermediate windows with loopy-type of throws
+ Looks smooth on the move, as Tulane cut the field down in half a lot on rollouts and he was very efficient with his motion
+ Creates easy velocity on the run, to hit throws late at the sideline
+ You also see some balls slightly across his body as one of his targets settles down as he approaches the numbers, which that area is already occupied by defenders
Processing & decision-making:
+ Capable of reading the full field and being a confident decision-maker, who plays the game with great timing and anticipation
+ Will happily take free-access and leverage throws based on pre-snap alignment of both sides all day long
+ Consistently leads his receivers back down the stem on any type of route breaking towards the quarterback
+ Allows the movement of zone defender to dictate where the ball should go, where he doesn’t shy away from testing tight windows over the middle of the field and he hits the button-hook on mesh when the coverage is still dispersing
+ Definitely has improved his ability to manipulate coverage with his eyes and force safeties to void their landmarks
+ Has some (quasi) no-lookers on tape, where he knows he has someone down in the flats whilst being aimed down the field and just flipping it out there without tipping off defenders to drive up early
+ Willing to stare down the barrel of the gun and stand in there with pressure coming in to rip throws
+ Looks comfortable turning his back to the defense, hiding the ball in different ways and locating targets down the field – often times wide open thanks to a good fake
+ 2023 was the only of four years where less than 11% of his passes was dropped and he actually had a 100% adjusted completion rate in the 2023 season-opener vs. South Alabama
Playmaking in & out of the pocket:
+ Generally displays good awareness for rush angles and when to be subtle or dramatic with his movements to erase them
+ Does a nice job of re-setting inside the pocket without needing a lot of space to operate
+ Once he gets outside, he directs traffic and can flip those hips around quickly to hit targets sliding away from coverage
+ Sneaky good athlete, who punishes you in a hurry for bad rush discipline and green grass in front of him
+ Has some good lateral agility to bounce sideways in order to escape through an opening between the guard and tackle after hitching up initially
+ Quick to pull the ball and shoot through a lane in front of him, if the defense presents it to him
+ Slick ball-handler who ran zone-read, invert verr, etc. to good effect for the Green Wave – averaged 9.2 yards per “non-scramble” for his career
+ Had a career-best big-throw rate (6.5%) compared to a 3.9% turnover-worthy play this past season
Weaknesses:
– His hands are only 9-and-¼ inches and his raw arm strength is only average for NFL standards, which is why you see the ball wobble a lot
– Has a tendency to overstride trying to hit intermediate throws coming into his vision and you sub-optimal placement trying to drive the ball
– Would retreat way too much and not climb up into the pocket in 2022 especially and can look kind of small when the walls are closing in on him
– Doesn’t always confirm coverage post-snap or tries to fit in throws anyway, which will been more costly with less static pictures defensively
– His 21.4% pressure-to-sack conversion rate in 2023 was tied for 111th among 165 FBS quarterbacks with 100+ dropbacks
Looking at Florida State’s Jordan Travis and Pratt, I thought they were fairly clear evaluations, as guys who have operated at a high level in college and there’s a lot of their game that will translate well to the next level, even though their ceiling may be capped due to physical limitations. I love Pratt’s ability to ID defensive looks and deliver passes on the money with anticipation. It’s when defenses crush the pocket, challenge him to make throws outside the numbers against tight-man coverage or when they change the picture on him post-snap and he has to go beyond the structure of plays, where I get a little worried. Adding to that, his low sack avoidance rate is clearly below what you’d like to see. With that being said, whether you want to spread the field and have him identify advantageous throws, put him under center and run play-action, move the pocket and hit his guys on levels-based concepts, I think he’s capable of executing any of those offenses. Most likely he will not be drafted to compete for a starting job, but I can see a situation where he finds himself in that role for a couple of years in the league along with being a high-quality backup for a long time, who can get you through certain stretches if asked to jump in.
9. Jordan Travis, Florida State
6’1”, 200 pounds; RS SR
A top-1000 overall recruit in 2018, Travis spent one year at Louisville before transferring to FSU, barely seeing any action in either debut season, He took over for the Seminoles mid-way through 2020 with mixed results, before becoming one of the gutsier signal-callers in the ACC from that point on, In 2022, he completed 64 percent of his passes for 3214 yards and 24 touchdowns, compared to only five picks, plus another 417 yards and seven TDs on the ground, making him the second-team All-ACC QB. This past season he ascended to the conference’s Player of the Year, despite missing the final couple of regular season matchups with a gruesome-looking ankle injury, as he was right in line with his averages from the year prior, but accounted for 27 touchdowns compared to only two picks.
Physical make-up & arm talent:
+ Like a machine as a thrower, staying on a line on his drops and being uber-consistent with his delivery
+ The way he can loop passes over the heads of defenders and then make the nose of the ball dive back down to let his receivers get underneath them – even whilst on the move – is tremendous
+ Willing to release the ball early and test some tight windows over the middle between hook-droppers
+ Can shorten his throwing motion and release the ball without his feet in the ground perfectly, if he sees an opening to hit hook routes and other spacing-based stuff (underneath)
+ For a guy his size, Travis feasted over the middle of the field, with a lot of beautifully layered throws – he went 68-of-106 for 1005 yards and 12 TDs vs. two INTs between the numbers in the 10-19 yard range
+ Any type of RPOs or play-action are on the table, especially from the pistol where he has to abort the fake or open to the same side for the RB as where the route is coming from and quickly flip his hips around
+ Capable of putting more pace on the ball whilst falling away than you’d anticipate
+ Whether he has to softly flip it to guys on slide routes to the right, drive it towards the sideline or flip his shoulders in order to more zip on the ball or rolling/spinning to the left, he’s a really good passer on the move
Processing & decision-making:
+ Very quick decision-maker and accurate distributor, who likes to spread the field and share the wealth between his receiving corp
+ Regularly is able to lead his offense to positive plays on early downs by just taking leverage throws that set up second-and-short or medium
+ In particular when the defense doesn’t bump out with the back and the run off coverage outside, there are several nice gains flipping it to the back in the flats
+ Showcases big-time anticipation throws and great timing with his footwork married to the receiver’s break
+ When he has time to set up, Travis will get all those cleats into the turf and really rip throws over the middle of the field, especially off play-action – FSU loved those backside glances to the isolated receiver
+ Seems to always read the positioning of his receivers on fade route correctly, when to put it out in front or put it on the back-shoulder, giving his guys chances to make plays for him – often times truly “throwing them open”
+ Consistently has a plan on third downs of where to go with the ball is able to deliver it accurately for several key conversions
+ Had a tremendous big-time throw to turnover-worthy rate of 27-to-8 in 2022, followed up a 20-to-8 last season
Playmaking in & out of the pocket:
+ Has a knack for extending plays and understands how his receivers are likely going to run secondary routes, while being able to get the ball to them with the appropriate trajectory
+ One slippery son of a gun, capable of making pursuing rushers overrun him by coming to a sudden step, redirecting and finding ways to extend play
+ Keeps two hands on the ball as he works out to the sideline at all times – only two fumbles last season (neither lost)
+ Along with basic zone read plays, Florida State used him on some designed runs with pullers, such as GT counter, where he showed an understanding for pressing one shoulder of those blockers and sliding inside of them once he had cleared the lane for himself
+ Great balance and much stronger than his size would indicate to slip out of grasp of would-be tacklers or spin off guys
+ Does a nice job of tip-toeing the sideline and getting a few more extra yards than he should
+ On 90 carries over the past two years (just under half of those being scrambles), Travis forced 51 missed tackles and 34 of those resulted in 10+ yards
+ Super tough guy, who got rocked and shaken up on multiple occasions these last couple of years, only to get back up and help the Seminoles win games
Weaknesses:
– You see too many little extra shuffle steps instead of a clean top to his drops, as he tries to shorten the distance to the target already
– Lacks top-tier arm strength to push the ball out to the sidelines and you see him cheat a little bit at times, slightly drifting to the side he wants to set up and throw up towards
– Has a tendency of falling away on some throws, where he feels like he needs some more time to release it, while kicking out his legs in drastic fashion when attempting more challenging throws when it comes to necessary arm strength
– When he doesn’t feel comfortable in the pocket early on, he gets a little jumpy and is ready to leave early, and he doesn’t have the type of arm talent to consistently hit big-boy throws with the space around him being crunched down
– Would rather try to run away from rather than replace blitzers with the throw at times, leading to seven sacks and a couple of batted passes across 139 dropbacks when blitzed
Jordan Travis is the most “what you see if what you get” quarterback in this draft. This is a tough, competitive leader of man with quality decision-making and the requisite arm talent to deliver the ball accurately to where it should go. On top of that, he adds a dimension as a scrambler that made him one of the most effective players at the position in college football over the last couple of years. He didn’t transfer, but hung in there with the Seminoles and helped turn them from a 15-20 program over his first three seasons to double-digit wins these past two and the only reason that the undefeated Seminoles didn’t get a bid in the College Football Playoff in 2023/24 was the fact that Travis himself got hurt. Unfortunately, there’s a capped ceiling with this type of player, who’s slightly off starter-quality arm talent and is on the smaller end, to where you worry about what things will look like in a compressed NFL pocket. If he can continue to widen his field vision, get to solutions vs. the blitz earlier and learns to not bail against pressure as much, I can certainly see him becoming a multi-year starter in the right environment. At worst however, he should be one of the top backups in the league, who the locker room will love and he can rally the troops when called upon.
10. Devin Leary, Kentucky
6’1”, 215 pounds; RS SR
A top-500 overall recruit in 2018, Leary increased his numbers across the board in each of his first three seasons with the Wolfpack (missed most of 2020 after breaking a league). In 2021, he completed 65.7 percent of his passes for 3433 yards and 35 touchdowns and five interceptions – which broke Philip Rivers’ school record for TD passes in a season. He was off to another good start the following year, being named a team captain, before a shoulder injury cost him the final seven games. For the 2023 season, he transferred to Kentucky, where he immediately received captain honors again, but saw his completion rate drop to 53.6% with 2746 yards and 25 TDs vs. 12 INTs.
Physical make-up & arm talent:
+ The ball really jumps out of Leary’s hand, which was backed up by a 60 mph mark that he registered at the combine (only two behind Tennessee’s Joe Milton III)
+ There’s good rhythm and pace to his drops, to pair with clean throwing mechanics
+ Loves to fire seam drills in there to split the safeties in two-high looks or beat late rotations
+ Yet you also see him put more arc on the ball and drop it into the bucket for his receivers down the sideline between the corner and the safety in cover-two – even from the far hash
+ Puts a ton of air under his deep balls and allows his receivers to gain that late separation, after he sees the safety play flat-footed
+ Excels on touch throws over the head of flat-defenders, particularly corner routes in the red-zone for example
+ Has no issues releasing the ball off the wrong foot on rollouts/bootlegs and dropping down the arm angle to get it out a little quicker, yet with the same type of speed and accuracy
+ Always sets up his skill-players to gain yards after the catch with the ball-placement on swing routes, screens, etc.
Processing & decision-making:
+ Will happily take lay-ups and hit receivers on hitches to the field-side, if the corner over there is asked to bail, as well as hit his slot receivers on quick out routes if they have the leverage advantage
+ Can work through his progressions at a good pace and read like a stick concept to the field, before coming back to a curl route by the single receiver
+ Generally does well to operate on time and hit his targets out of their breaks, as that back-foot hits, yet is also patient enough to let them work into secondary windows
+ You see him hit a bunch of spot/hook routes as zone defenders widen in their drops and he quickly gets to his hot guy when blitzed
+ Understands where free-access and leverage throws are going to be, yet doesn’t tip off the defense where he’ll go right away by having his helmet pointed North as he takes the snap
+ When you go to the end-zone angle, you see that Leary occasionally opens up windows in-between shallow zone defenders with subtle no-lookers
+ Looks comfortable turning his back to the defense on play-action from under center, set up and drive throws over the intermediate level of the field
+ Actively turns his receivers to the opposite shoulder of where the defender is at trailing on deep balls, Back-shoulder fades are a regular item on the menu
+ Didn’t have many real weapons at receiver around him and was let down by some bad drops and semi-drops, where his guys don’t turn away defenders and/or allow the ball to be raked out late
Playmaking in & out of the pocket:
+ Willing to hang at the top of his drop and rip throws on the intermediate level that require velocity whilst a rusher is about to blow him up
+ Is kind of slick with his pocket movement, understanding rush angles and letting crashing defenders run by him
+ Maintains a throw-ready posture as he’s sliding away from pressure points and buying extra time
+ There are some plays where he’s pedaling all the way outside the numbers to bleed out opportunities for his receivers to break open on secondary routes, whilst being prepared to release at any moment
+ Has more “escapability” than he gets credit for, where you see him wiggle out of potential sacks as the linemen are being pushed into him from multiple angles, he jukes an oncoming rusher or dips underneath one trying to reach out for him
+ Keeps his eyes up as he extends plays and can put different speeds on the ball, whether he has to drive it to somebody sitting down against zone or has to float it over an underneath defender – And he’s pretty accurate at doing so
+ Didn’t scramble a ton last season at Kentucky, but on the nine times that he did, he recorded 98 yards
+ You see it the quickness at times when he ran QB draw and was able to evade a point of penetration before getting back downhill
Weaknesses:
– Digs his cleats into the ground and opens his chest towards the target in then quick game, which enables defenders to drive on the throw simultaneously, from which point it’s about if they or the ball gets to that spot first, along with relying all on his arm and not being pin-point because of it
– Trusts his arm a little too much at times, such as trying to hit sail routes/deep outs to the field on flood concepts, where the corner doesn’t actually turn with the wideout pushing vertically
– Struggles with seeing full picture facing zone coverage and doesn’t always confirm what he saw pre-snap
– There are a lot of balls throw up for his receivers in one-on-one coverage on the outside and asking them to make plays for him, without optimal ball-placement on those
– Doesn’t have the speed to outrun defenders to the corner and gets tracked down frequently when trying to get out to the sideline
Evaluating Devin Leary was one of the more pleasant surprises in this draft. He really got back onto my radar – since it’s been about one-and-a-half years since we’ve actually seen him play at a high level, and the circumstances at Kentucky largely dictated that – when I watched him absolutely rip it at the combine. In a group that included Oregon’s Bo Nix and Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy, he was clearly the most impressive thrower at least, whether he needed to pin receivers at the sideline or show touch. Now, there are certainly things on tape that bother you, whether he sort of pre-determines throws, is unaware of ancillary zone defenders or doesn’t calibrate deep ball accordingly. However, I don’t think his completion rate last season with the Wildcats was representative of the quality of throws you see, with plenty of drops and even when the placement seemed to be off, on a few of those I saw his vision behind them, where he’d place it just behind a receiver to stop him in a window or lead someone further upfield to not allow the underneath coverage to make an impact. Constantly being forced off the spot and not having good answers for extra pressure incorporated into the offense made Leary feel different navigating muddy pockets. Nevertheless, he has the arm talent and the mental capacity to handle full-field reads that would really intrigue me to take a shot at him early on day three.
Incredible potential:
Joe Milton III, Tennessee
6’5”, 245 pounds; RS SR
A four-star recruit for Michigan in 2018, Milton attempted just 11 passes (117 yards, one TD vs. two INTs) across his first two seasons with the Wolverines before getting his shot as a junior, but he was very underwhelming 80-of-141 for 1077 passing yards and four TDs and INTs each. After looking like the new starter at Tennessee, he was benched a couple of games into the 2021 season for Hendon Hooker, who ultimately turned himself into a Heisman candidate. However, once Hooker went down at the end of last season, Milton got a chance to start two games, across which he went 30-of-49 for 398 yards and four touchdowns with no picks (vs. Vanderbilt and Clemson in the Orange Bowl).
Physical make-up & arm talent:
+ Absolute rocket launcher, who claims to throw the ball well over 80 yards – and he might not be too far off
+ If he has a receiver streaking down the sideline and the corner isn’t fully turned to run, that’s an invitation to make him do as the ball is pushed way down the field
+ However, I thought in 2023 I saw him deliver balls with a lot more touch than I anticipated
+ Some of the deep balls he drops right into the bread-basket over a trailing defender after climbing up into the pocket or pedaling away from pressure are just insane
+ The mustard this guy puts on the ball when he’s driving it out the sideline is pretty insane
+ Creates the velocity to beat flat defenders flying out towards outside receivers with the throw and in general he’s able to hit closing windows where he’s a beat late
+ Even when there’s pressure coming in on him and he has to flick the ball flat-footed, you see him hit a receiver on a go route down the sideline in stride 35-40 yards from the point of release
Processing & decision-making:
+ Watching him in 2023 after a full offseason as the starter, what was really encouraging to watch was seeing Milton stay on a line so to speak behind the center when he wasn’t flat-out flushed
+ Even after having to actually run up towards the line of scrimmage and having to get away from a throwing posture, he’s now typically getting back to that and is looking for targets down the field
+ As soon as the safety steps down at all on double-post concepts, Milton takes that as a green light to let it fly over the top
+ There’s some high-end ball-placement with a defender closing in, to beat him with the throw towards the opposite shoulder of his target
+ Can teleport the ball to receivers on hot-reads and replace the blitzer against zone coverage
+ Showed a willingness to just dump it off to his back underneath if the shot down the field wasn’t quite there
+ While the sample size was very limited, Milton led all NCAA quarterbacks with a passer rating of 144.9 in 2022, with an insane 17.8 average depth of target
Playmaking in & out of the pocket:
+ Featured what was tied for the fifth-highest PFF passing grade under pressure in 2022 (70.8%), in part because the defense still needs to cover the entire field since he can still attack any area even without space to step up into throws
+ Will almost bound up and pull his throwing shoulder in as he evades pressure off the edge
+ You see him slide or spin away from a pressure point and at times launch balls with both feet coming off the ground 50-60 yards from that spot
+ Because he maintains that throw-ready posture and is ready to launch it at any moment, you see some big openings develop between the linemen that he’d run through late for positive yardage – earned 102 yards on 12 scrambles last season
+ Able to zip it to his wideout sitting there off a quick hit as he decides to take off through a lane and sees the corner come off that guy
+ When he hits the hole with momentum, you see the ability to get skinny through tight creases and he did run a 4.62 at his pro day, which you saw on an 82-yard TD run against UTSA last season
+ Can throw in a little stutter and head-fake inside to freeze the feet of a defender in pursuit and beat him out to the corner
– Clearly has all the arm strength in the world, but it needs calibration – throws the ball so hard, that he loses control sometimes and misses lay-ups or makes it tough for his receivers having to dive for passes as the break inside
– Not particularly light on his feet and he’ll stop them at times as he’s scanning the field
– Regularly gets locked in on his primary read in an offense that excels at opening those up and when he didn’t have that luxury due to the departed receiving talent with the Vols in 2023, allowing the pressure around him to close in, since he needed to see his guy actually come open
– If you take out passes behind the line of scrimmage, Milton sits at 2.86 seconds in terms of time-to-throw (which would be up there for highest in the country) and his PFF passing with NO pressure (75.2) ranked 105th out of 165 FBS quarterbacks with 100+ dropbacks in 2023
– Will dismiss the structure of the pocket – particularly with multiple points of pressure – and of running concepts, where he just doesn’t see it or wants to follow his line to find a lane, and he’s not a dynamic make-you-miss type of runner, with just 12 missed tackles forced across 103 career carries
Weaknesses:
I’m not going to act like I came up with this all by myself, since I have seen people make that comparison, but when you saw social media posts about how Milton could be this year’s version of Anthony Richardson, it was more telling on he was falsely perceived by some coming out of Florida more so due to his lack of experience as this “raw physical talent” – that’s very much how I look at Milton. Yet, he’s already 24 years old and while he’s only started 21 games, he was in college for six years. Whether it’s the ability to choose the right club as a passer, his footwork, the ability to process information and ability to throw windows or his pocket presence, they’re all not particularly close to what you’d need to see from a potential starter at the NFL level. The arm talent, especially in terms of range and max velocity is clearly there and I do believe he’s shown some improvements, which were numbed a little bit by the decline of the Tennessee offense overall – which clearly weren’t all up to him, with far less wide-open targets to hit. If you throw him out there right now, he’ll lead defenders towards the ball with his eyes over and over again and have a short-lived career in the league, but the tools are worthy of taking a day-three flier to see what you can mold him into.
The next names up:
Kedon Slovis (BYU), Austin Reed (Western Kentucky), Taulia Tagovailoa (Maryland), Gavin Hardison (UTEP), Carter Bradley (South Alabama) & Michael Hiers (Samford)
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