As I said when I birthed this little offseason project last year, what I’m writing about here challenges what the NFL is trying to sell the fanbases of all 32 teams at this point of the calendar – everyone is live to win the upcoming Super Bowl. Probably in no other league do they pursue parity to this extent, and we just watched the Seahawks hoist the Lombardi Trophy at the start of February, despite being tied for 19th in preseason betting odds when toe met leather the first time again. Nonetheless, not all franchises treat each offseason as if they need to maximize how many games they win that season, and therefore it differs what would be labelled a “successful campaign” for them respectively.
So again, while this isn’t a novel concept, and I like to buy into the idea of anything being possible, I do believe that teams across the league are more willing to accept the idea of different stages of roster construction and trying to build a winning program over a longer period of time. Therefore, laying the groundwork and contextualizing where the focus should lie for each of them, as well as what they realistically should be shooting for, is constructive – and a perfect exercise here for the end of July. It may be fair to simply measure success based on how far they make it in 2026, but for others, displaying growth in certain areas to improve their outlook for the future, may be more important, actually.
Let’s go through them by division!
NFC North:
Chicago Bears 
At the risk of annoying people from the start here, I do have to point out here that I was ridiculed last September when I boldly predicted the Bears to win 12 games and the NFC North. While they couldn’t quite secure that final W in the (fairly meaningless) regular season finale, they did prove me right in being one of the surprise breakout teams in the league, pushing the Rams to overtime in a Divisional Playoff contest at home. Remaining on the division throne, in more of a co-favorite set-up compared to last year’s surprise, certainly would be a strong start. However, with a first-place schedule and the other three teams, at least on paper, looking more equipped to overcome limiting factors for them this past season, this group could still make plenty of noise as a Wildcard as well. So, more tangibly, what I’m looking for is more down-to-down consistency – specifically, his ball-placement – to complement the spectacular play-making ability and late-game heroics from Caleb Williams, while the defense is at least close to an average unit, rather than being saved by takeaways. That volatility in 2025 is what enabled them to exceed expectations, but on a base level, Ben Johnson wants them to be a ball-control type of team, with a bruising ground game, rather than constantly finding themselves in shootouts.
Detroit Lions 
Considering they’re obviously interconnected, the other big call I made for this division was that the Lions would *just* miss out on the playoffs, which is exactly what happened. The reasons I came to that conclusion were my doubt around if new coordinators on either side of the ball could live up to the impact their predecessors had made, along with the retirement of All-Pro center and heartbeat of the organization, Frank Ragnow. While Kelvin Sheppard showed signs that he could make them a competent defense after his step up from linebackers coach, as long as he had a solid collection of pieces available to him, they decided to phase out John Morton entirely, and Dan Campbell wound up taking over offensive play-calling duties. Clearly, we saw the peaks of what their attack is capable of, particularly when they were able to provide space to superstar running back Jahmyr Gibbs, but the weekly consistency wasn’t quite there, and you didn’t feel their identity as strongly. Not having Ragnow start every play with his hand on the ball, and the cumulative effects of the interior of the O-line not being as solidified, absolutely contributed to it. And yet, with the free agency signing of Cade Mays allowing both their young guards to settle into their natural spots, and the defense returning almost their entire starting lineup – even if their strong safety tandem is still recovering from major injuries – you’d expect them to be able to take advantage of a fourth-place schedule. So I’d say the goal is to emerge on top of a highly competitive NFC North, with more stability and (hopefully) health on both sides of the ball.
Green Bay Packers 
As I think about what I’m looking for on either side of the ball for the Packers, more consistency in the run game offensively will be a key factor in how they like to operate. However, with the nebulous legal situation around Josh Jacobs, that significantly impacts what I think about that aspect of their team currently. Meanwhile, the expectations for their defense are also heavily reliant on something we can’t really track ourselves, as Micah Parsons suffered a torn ACL in mid-December last year, as the crown jewel for Jonathan Gannon coming in to take over that unit, following the departure of now-Dolphins head coach Jeff Hafley. So I’d understand why people in Wisconsin might be anxious about what they look like as a team overall, but I also believe there’s reason for excitement about how potent Jordan Love looked like once this young receiving corp started to come along, and the fact that the only starters “lost” seemingly were guys they were willing to let walk out of the door, with Romeo Doubs maybe as the lone exception. Due to the nature of what his turnovers look like, Love is often mislabeled as “reckless”, considering he led the NFL in multiple advanced metrics when not pressured. So in terms of what Green Bay can control, I’d say they need to manufacture a viable pass-rush until Micah is back to full health, and for their bets on the O-line to pay off – which would in turn set a higher baseline for that unit altogether.
Minnesota Vikings 
When thinking about the Lions being hamstrung by injuries, especially on defense, and the Packers offense being less reliable based on a less successful rushing attack, to go with what they looked like on the other side of the ball when their top player wasn’t available, Minnesota sticks out based on their issues revolving so much around one position. Although you can point at their investments on the interior of the offensive and defensive lines not paying off, the combination of J.J. McCarthy, Carson Wentz and Max Brosmer held back the potential of this franchise in sizable ways. So I very much agree with taking a one-year flyer on Kyler Murray, on a veteran minimum salary, and largely running it back with their previous roster, other than immediately getting out of a couple of the bigger contracts they handed out. Even making a couple of mid- to lower-tier additions in wide receiver Jauan Jennings and cornerback James Pierre, I can absolutely buy into. How Kevin O’Connell melds those two worlds his new quarterback will have been part of, and if Brian Flores can remain on the cutting edge of defensive innovation will be critical in them paying those off. Still, I’d say winning double-digit games, with Kyler elevating the ceiling of their aerial attack, to where it allows Flores’ defense to leverage those positive gamescripts into even more negative plays, is the goal.
NFC East:
Dallas Cowboys 
Transitioning to a division now that wasn’t nearly as competitive from top-to-bottom as the NFC North, where all four sides finished with winning records, but could deliver a lot more tight contests, the Cowboys are good representatives of the step they could make collectively. Only the Rams and Patriots scored a full point more per game than Dallas did last season (27.7 PPG). Unfortunately, they were also the only team to crack 30+ points allowed on a weekly basis. So it’s pretty clear which side of the ball required a major shift, and you can’t say that Brian Schottenheimer wasn’t willing to embrace that. First and foremost, they peeled 34-year-old Christian Parker off Philadelphia’s staff, who helped them win a Super Bowl just two seasons ago, as Vic Fangio’s pass game coordinator and defensive backs coach. Then, they either signed of traded for veteran players at every single position, who have contributed to quality units at previous stops, before spending five of their six top-150 draft picks on that side of the ball. I was impressed with how multi-faceted their offense was last season under Klayton Adams, and there’s no reason to doubt that they can once again be near the top of the league statistically. The bottom line is for Christian Parker to successfully infuse this new DNA into their defense, which should help them at least win one playoff game. Plus, they should get through the offseason without any unhappy players.
New York Giants 
While the three-win difference between the Giants and Cowboys isn’t enormous, their starting point, with neither facet having something impressive to show for itself rankings-wise, and a completely new coaching staff, certainly feels lower. John Harbaugh, being a leader of men, who can bring some order to a blueblood franchise, and some of the young talent across this roster, does justify excitement among Big Blue’s fans, however. I just released a video analyzing why Abdul Carter could soon become a star on defense for them, and I absolutely love their duo of players in the trenches, added in the top ten of the draft, symbolizing where they want to be stronger going forward. I will exhibit some caution here though, as the recovery for budding star receiver Malik Nabers has been far from ideal, based on the reporting out there, and the fact that all the defensive investments made may make them a more complete unit for Dennard Wilson to work with, but no single player will immediately make an impact the size of what Dexter Lawrence provided, who they traded to Cincinnati. So finishing with a record around .500 is a reasonable objective. However, in terms of what I think they really want to see is for Jaxson Dart to show real development in structure, and for them to feel like a more physically imposing team on both sides of the line of scrimmage.
Philadelphia Eagles 
When I was laying out these aspirations for all 32 teams a year ago, the Eagles and Chiefs were the only two sides for whom I went as far as to set the bar at actually winning the Super Bowl. Obviously, neither happened, as the Chiefs’ magic in close games ran out before Patrick Mahomes ultimately got hurt to seal their fate of missing the postseason, while the Eagles didn’t have real issues taking the division with an 11-and-6 record, but allowed the 49ers to swing that Wildcard meeting in their favor at the end. While I wouldn’t say the bar they should set is flat-out lower than previously, by ultimately coming to the inevitable conclusion that they needed to trade away A.J. Brown, and a fundamental shift potentially in what this offense looks like – including their stalwart O-line coach in Jeff Stoutland leaving the organization, following some internal disagreements – there might be a slightly longer leash to get back to the mountain top. Vic Fangio’s defense appears locked and loaded once again, but hiring Sean Mannion as their OC could bring more of a shift towards the Matt LaFleur/Sean McVay world. The way to approach this may be to find the right offensive balance that appeases Jalen Hurts while pushing that unit forward, without relying as much on individual talent. Which, along with their number two outside corner spot being stabilized, hopefully, should make them feel like a top contender to that three-headed dragon from the NFC West.
Washington Commanders 
Unlike some of my projections across the NFC North coming true, I felt pretty good about how I envisioned the East playing out, with Philly as the clear favorites and Washington as pretty obvious (negative) regression candidates. How reliant they were on takeaways defensively, and their insane success on fourth downs on offense, simply weren’t sustainable elements for a winning organization on an annual basis. Then-reigning Offensive Rookie of the Year Jayden Daniels being banged up throughout the season certainly contributed to them actually flipping their previous 12-5 record upside down. Nonetheless, significant changes to their defense were necessary, which we should certainly see, with Daronte Jones coming over from Minnesota and them likely having six new starters in base or nickel personnel. How much their new DC can inject that Vikings identity that has made Brian Flores one of the sports’ biggest innovators will be interesting to watch. Albeit, they did also make the conscious decision to move on from Kliff Kingsbury’s hurry-up, RPO-centric attack to David Blough, who has only ever coached in Washington for the last two years as their QBs coach, after largely playing under OCs who had their roots in wide zone/West Coast principles. So while the personnel changes aren’t nearly as drastic for that unit, there’ll be a new look for the Commanders entirely. The objective here is that their bets at both coordinator spots pay off, and they return to the playoffs.
NFC South:
Atlanta Falcons 
Moving on to the only division in the NFL where all four teams finished with losing records and their champion was determined by the two sides who had already been eliminated, thanks to an odd three-way tie, I could summarize this and collectively say that each of them has to view emerging from that group and hosting a playoff game has to be the main objective. Having said that, I will give them the attention they deserve here and frame what they should want to see along that journey. For the Falcons, the starting point is quite interesting, as they basically moved on from all the key figures within the organization, outside of defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich, who elevated their level of talent in his debut campaign in Atlanta, while largely changing his identity as a play-caller based on the personnel at hand. Since they largely are the same unit on paper, with second-round pick Avieon Terrell (Clemson) trying to lock down one of the other corner spots alongside his brother A.J., the focus has to be on offense, where they committed to Drake London and Kyle Pitts as their two key receiving weapons, and overhauled the rest of the room around them, to go with Jawaan Taylor hopefully stabilizing the blindside for both their quarterbacks, as Tua Tagovailoa may begin the season under center due to injury to their starter. However, Michael Penix Jr. needs to look like a definitive long-term starting quarterback, and they live up to their potential, taking charge of a perennially weak NFC South.
Carolina Panthers 
Even though it took that curious tie-breaker being decided in their favor, overall I would say that the Panthers were a team that achieved what I had set out for them to do last season. That was for Bryce Young to look like a legit franchise quarterback, and for the defense to finally just look like a comprehensive, functional unit. While they’re still figuring out if they want to financially commit to that extent to Bryce, I did think the defense finally took a considerable step forward under Ejiro Evero, and having the ball down by three with under a minute left at the end of their Wildcard Round loss to the Rams isn’t something to sneeze at. I’ve spoken multiple times about their commitment to getting bigger and more physical across the entire roster, observing the players they’ve targeted in these past two drafts, and I’m curious about how much they prioritize getting this most recent rookie class out there early on. Continuing to commit financially to their defensive growth, with two hopeful play-makers in Jaelan Phillips and Devin Lloyd should make what they do on the back-end, with all these coverage rotations, feel that much more dynamic. So this one’s pretty straightforward, as I think Carolina should repeat as division champs and take care of business at home.
New Orleans Saints 
Although the Saints’ week 18 loss meant that they finished two games clear of the rest of the bunch, as last in that division with their 6-11 record, there may be more optimism around them currently than any of their three foes. The two main pieces of this are Tyler Shough looking as good as any rookie quarterback, and their defense ranking behind only the eventual Super Bowl champion Seahawks, if you go by EPA per play from week ten onwards. Now, their four-game win streak towards the end of the season was sparked by a fairly weak slate of opponents, but you saw tangible growth throughout and justified faith in the operation going forward. Now, they did allow their most proven corner in Alontae Taylor and stalwart linebacker Demario Davis to move on, they did make a few low-risk gambles on that side of the ball, and they invested large-scale financial and draft capital into the offense, with a running back in Travis Etienne who’s posted 1400 scrimmage yards in three of four seasons in Jacksonville, a Pro Bowl-level guard in David Edwards, and Jordyn Tyson (Arizona State), at pick eight, headlining a foursome of rookie pass-catchers. Similarly to the Falcons, while the urgency isn’t nearly as high for an early second-rounder compared to a top-ten pick, they want to see Shough prove himself as their long-term franchise quarterback, with a more potent skill-position group around him, and for new leaders on this defense to emerge.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 
Last but not least, the Bucs were on the negative end of how the division race shook out, missing out on a fifth straight NFC South title, despite taking care of their end of the bargain in week 18. Unlike the first of those seasons, when Tom Brady still tried to lead this franchise to their second straight Lombardi Trophy in as many years there, they’ve basically been a .500 operation. The conclusion to this most recent campaign felt particularly disappointing, considering they were to a 6-2 start, with massive wins over some of the best teams across the league, even in retrospect. Mike Evans’ ironman streak coming to an end and missing half the season, Baker Mayfield playing banged up over the latter half, nobody truly emerging for their pass-rush, and how vulnerable their defensive second level was, were the main culprits. They’re literally bringing back every starter for their offense, other than a healthy Jalen McMillan replacing Big Mike. The defense, on the other hand, completely overhauled its linebacker room, along with adding the two most critical pieces to the University of Miami’s dominant run to the national title game – Rueben Bain Jr. and Keionte Scott. The potential for them is there to make real noise in 2026, but Todd Bowles has to show new stripes in how their defense operates, or they need to commit to real changes, in order to avoid complacency/purgatory as a franchise.
NFC West:
Arizona Cardinals 
While much of the situation this organization finds itself in can be attributed to how they’ve handled coaching hires and ownership’s involvement, you do have to feel kind of bad for how vast the drop-off appears on paper, and based on projected win totals, between Arizona and the rest of this slaughterhouse division. Monti Ossenfort remains in charge as their general manager, who I’ve generally liked how he’s handled things operationally, but continue to question how they’ve approached the quarterback position, and I just fundamentally disagreed with on the decision to draft a blue-chip running back prospect in Jeremiyah Love at pick number three – depending on how much influence he had on it. The defensive lineup is basically identical, outside of the nose tackle spot, relying more on depth, with Nick Rallis returning for year four now, without the head coach who originally brought him along. Actual results will be required to extend his stay, while we did see them try to fortify the guard position, along with a continuously more impressive skill-position group that they’ve assembled. Setting a win total for Arizona would be rather meaningless, since you could accuse them as the one legitimate “tanking team” in the NFC, but I want to see Matt LaFleur install an offensive system that can help out a rookie quarterback, and for the defense to finally show tangible improvements for an extended stretch.
Los Angeles Rams 
I’ll make this short and sweet – this is the only team listed where I truly feel like this is a Super Bowl or bust season. You can argue that they have a two-year runway, as long as Matt Stafford continues to stay upright and there aren’t multiple back-breaking injuries that would hamper them. However, I believe that’s the only conclusion you can come to when observing their offseason, in the wake of playing a nearly even three-game series with the Seahawks, as the two clear top teams in the league, where a loose ball casually being picked up by Zach Charbonnet might’ve decided the outcome. When you go through their depth chart, you can see that they’re returning all 11 starters from last year, regardless of which personnel they want to put out there, and their multi-tight-end sets may be even slightly better this time around, with another second-rounder added into the mix. The same is largely true for their defense, with them swapping out their two starting outside corners – the clear weak spots for that unit in 2025 – for Kansas City’s excellent duo (Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson). Oh, and they substituted Jared Verse for the reigning Defensive Player of the Year and nearly minted all-time single-season sack record holder, Myles Garrett. We can talk about the long-term implications of parting with all those draft resources, but right now they have that “queen on the chessboard” to make them that much harder to prepare for, and all the other pieces to get another ring, five years later.
San Francisco 49ers 
No other team in the NFL maximized what they had at their disposal on a weekly basis more last season than the Niners, and their coaching staff deserves major credit for it. So far as bad as most fan bases would feel, following a 41-6 beatdown at their division rival’s place in Seattle, there’s equal reason for optimism about what they could do when they get back their two cornerstone defensive players in Fred Warner and Nick Bosa, along with George Kittle eventually returning from the torn Achilles late in the year. Losing defensive coordinator Robert Saleh to a head coaching gig for the second time in five years was far from optimal as well, but then they took advantage of Raheem Morris being back on the market as a highly qualified candidate, who simply may be better suited for that role, following his days as the man in charge for Atlanta. I liked both the trade for Osa Odighizuwa for their otherwise very young interior D-line, and pairing Dre Greenlaw back up with his former running mate, after a year in Denver. So, while the 12-win bar they just set is a high one, I’d say they’re looking for Raheem Morris to at least appear like a parallel move at defensive coordinator, and for Kyle Shanahan to find a way to utilize their group of receivers in a meaningful way. The latter half of this I have confidence in, although I’m not yet 100% sure what that plan looks like, around veteran Mike Evans as their big free agency signing.
Seattle Seahawks 
Finally for the NFC, we finish up with the reigning champs, who feel like they’ve gotten overshadowed this offseason, based on all the noise their divisional rivals in the Rams have made, in order to leap over them. The Hawks, to me are quietly lying in the grass right now, running it back with all but one definitive starter on either side of the ball – running back (and Super Bowl MVP) Kenneth Walker III and either Riq Woolen or Coby Bryant in the secondary, depending on which grouping they want to throw out there. The one massive caveat to all of this, of course, has to be change at offensive coordinator, where Klint Kubiak was a revelation, and Brian Fleury – as I discussed in a recent video series, looking at every team’s biggest remaining – has yet to prove he can design and string together plays in such an effective way himself. If that drop-off doesn’t become the story with them, and Sam Darnold can avoid negative plays the way he did in the postseason, they absolutely have the ability to repeat. The key will be for rookie Jadarian Price to offer the level of balance on the ground to allow their play-action game to remain as potent, and help them at least be one of the final two teams left in the NFC again.
AFC North:
Baltimore Ravens 
Switching conferences now, we start with a team that clearly came up short of expectations last season, as the Ravens went into it as co-championship favorites. Trying to dissect what areas they struggled to live up to the standard they had set, along with Lamar Jackson not nearly looking like the MVP front-runner he’s perennially been, their struggles on the interior O-line not allowing them to maintain their identity, and their defensive pass-rush being nearly non-existent, never quite allowed them to kick into gear. While I want to see them get Derrick Henry going downhill a lot more consistently from the start, and the middle of their pocket being firmed up would clearly aid it, there’s no reason to bet against Lamar returning to form. Even if the Maxx Crosby trade fell through, Trey Hendrickson’s track record, to go with second-round pick Zion Young (Missouri) and Nnadmi Madubuike, thankfully recovering from a career-threatening injury, suggests that they should move up from finishing last year tied for the third-fewest sacks across the league (30). You’d expect a shift in what their offense looks like, bringing over Declan Doyle from Chicago, but structurally they shouldn’t have any significant issues adapting to Jesse Minter, who installed their system along with Mike Macdonald at Michigan, to go with Anthony Weaver returning. After saying the natural step forward for Baltimore was to finally get over the hump and make it to the Super Bowl, I want to see them get back to the AFC Championship game, behind a multi-faceted offensive attack and a live pass-rush.
Cincinnati Bengals 
After missing out on the postseason for three straight years now, it’s pretty obvious that they simply can’t waste another season of Joe Burrow’s prime. However, I think in order for Zac Taylor to keep his job, they’ll actually need to win a playoff game. Although they need to weigh whether giving their franchise signal-caller opportunities for live reps in the preseason to avoid another slow start is more important than minimizing the risk of potential injury, his health is something they don’t have full control over. In order to be playing meaningful football in January however, it’ll require their defense being capable of getting one or two key stops in big games. They’ve certainly made it a priority to turn that unit around, looking at the resources invested in it. That includes using their last three top draft picks on the edge position, along with signing Boye Mafe, Jonathan Allen and Bryan Cook in this free agency cycle alone. The central piece to their turnaround – and the big move that’s been very uncommon in the history of this franchise – has been nose tackle Dexter Lawrence, however. How he sets the table for all these guys, their second-year linebacker tandem being given enough time to decipher plays, and quarterbacks not having space to step up into throws, as this secondary under DC Al Golden will try to plaster receivers, will be crucial. A pair of offensive linemen on rookie deals will need to take a step forward as well.
Cleveland Browns 
How is a team that just traded away arguably the best player in the entire league, regardless of position, and who might end up starting a quarterback, who infamously is known for being part of probably the worst trade in NFL history (even if you ignore the off-field history), supposed to feel? Cleveland was outscored by exactly 100 points last season, where if they faced a potent offense, it simply didn’t feel like it had a real chance of keeping up, even if their defense could show resistance to a certain point. The clear bright spot for them was this highly promising rookie class, where if running back Quinshon Judkins remained healthy, they might’ve swept the two awards handed out, and they found multiple other quality starters. Now, as much as the media likes to hype up Shedeur Sanders, I wouldn’t say that includes their duo of young quarterbacks (yet). However, while I didn’t understand trading him in-division, people retrospectively view Joe Flacco’s first month of 2025 more in the light of what he did afterwards with the Bengals. If you extrapolated that stretch over the full season, he would’ve been last among the three Browns starting QBs that made up the bottom of the rankings in EPA per play (with 200+ dropbacks). So while going from Kevin Stefanski and Tommy Rees to Todd Monken and Travis Switzer may be more of a parallel move, clearly those guys weren’t working with a whole lot personnel-wise. After this season, the goal is to feel confident about the supporting cast for whoever starts for them at quarterback in 2027, and their defense doesn’t take a major step down without Myles Garrett.
Pittsburgh Steelers 
Firstly here, I’d be lying if I said that I could discern a real plan on offense or at quarterback going forward. If you told Steelers fans a few years ago that 42-year-old Aaron Rodgers would reunite with Mike McCarthy after getting fired from the Cowboys, they would’ve probably just brushed you aside. Ending that 19-year relationship with Mike Tomlin, only to not make major changes in what this organization feels like, and trying to find a new wind under their sails, is a bit of a head-scratcher. Having said that, they did fend off the Ravens at home in week 18 to take the AFC North crown, and they addressed the biggest areas of concern as you go through their lineups. At worst, first-round pick Max Iheanachor (Arizona State) allows them to get their best five out there on the O-line. We can feel a lot better about the reliability to of their two other starting receivers in 11 personnel, between veteran Michael Pittman Jr. and second-rounder Germie Bernard (Alabama). And Jamel Dean quietly has graded out as one of the better corners in the league, according to multiple outlets, on a play-to-play basis. So, while at least setting up a final run with Rodgers in January would be necessary to justify their approach to the position, with how stale things started to feel at times, they’re looking for some of their young defenders to emerge as cornerstone pieces, blended in with the veterans they’ve typically relied upon so much.
AFC East:
Buffalo Bills 
As far as the AFC goes, due to a lot of the other heavyweights taking a step back last season, this is pretty much as straightforward as it gets. Buffalo didn’t quite manage to take advantage of a watered-down conference and emerge from it. So this is the same as a year ago – finally make it to the Super Bowl. Thinking about what getting over the hump comprises, a sustainable shift in defensive identity, and hopefully producing more explosive passes without Josh Allen having to create those, would be the pillars I identified. I’ve previously discussed what the hiring of Jim Leonhard as their new DC represents, as an outsider who first made a name for himself at Wisconsin and now spent a couple of years as a high-ranking assistant under Vance Joseph in Denver. I’d expect them to embrace some odd fronts on base downs, and generally a more dynamic feel to how they apply pressure with extra/different bodies. Handing Joe Brady the reins signals that we shouldn’t anticipate any major changes offensively, but I’m curious about the small levers he might pull, just like the shift last season from a bunch of six-linemen sets to a lot more 12 personnel, since they added a bad-ass run-blocking tight-end in then-rookie Jackson Hawes. Bringing in Sean Payton’s right-hand man for basically the last two decades, in Pete Carmichael Jr., might at least provide some institutional knowledge about how to utilize a player like D.J. Moore (acquired for a second-round pick), rather than sticking him in one spot and asking him to win as a route-runner consistently.
Miami Dolphins 
The way I decided to frame this, and to ask a question to my readers – What do you believe should be the expectations for a team that is paying 1.5 times as much dead money (179 million) to players no longer on the roster, just added 13 draft picks, and signed several more UDFAs? By the way, the list of departures includes their starting quarterback, the wide receiver duo he funneled the vast majority of their pass game through, along with their defensive leaders in sacks, interceptions, fumbles forced and recovered. Obviously, they weren’t looking forward to bringing back all the main contributors to a 7-10 team, and drastic moves were necessary with those types of price tags hanging over them. Nonetheless, how they’ve approached this offseason and the players they’ve targeted so far does signal that they’re committed to a longer-term rebuild around Jeff Hafley and Jon-Eric Sullivan, coming over from Green Bay together. Bringing along previous backup quarterback Malik Willis does make you wonder if those timelines are fully aligned, but they do need to take some swings at the most important position. My focus would be to find a couple more cornerstone pieces on offense and defense each, on top of De’Von Achane and Aaron Brewer, plus Zach Sieler and Jordyn Brooks, respectively. That’s along with having an answer about how invested they should be in Malik Willis long-term.
New England Patriots 
While I do believe it’s fair to say Super Bowl participants should expect to get back to the game’s biggest stage, I think we also need to acknowledge that the 2025 Patriots were a somewhat flawed team, whose defense started to run hot against three offenses that clearly had their own shortcomings to exploit – the Chargers O-line, the Broncos playing with their backup quarterback, and the Texans kind of with a combination of the two, as C.J. Stroud arguably had the worst performance of his professional career. With that in mind, New England absolutely looks better on paper heading into 2026. I don’t know how the long-term plan at offensive tackle might be altered, after targeting the position at the start and end of the first round in these last two drafts, but plugging in Alijah Vera-Tucker, and moving Jared Wilson to his natural spot at center should help. For as good a chain-mover as Stefon Diggs was for them last season, the combination of A.J. Brown and Romeo Doubs pushing everyone else down the depth chart is a massive improvement for a quarterback who lost out on an MVP trophy by one vote. Meanwhile, the defense has a full offseason with Zak Kuhr now officially taking over defensive coordinator duties. The switch from K’Lavon Chaisson to Dre’Mont Jones is more of a stylistic shift on the edge, while Kevin Byard may be 33 by the team week one rolls around, but his intelligence and ball-hawking ability should help provide extra possessions for Drake and company. I’m sure they’re not concerned with it, but it would help to make the whole “schedule narrative” disappear and repeat as AFC East champions.
New York Jets 
The Jets are an interesting case to me because what their fanbase wants to see and what saves Aaron Glenn’s job may be two vastly different things. I’ve mentioned multiple times how the head coach basically scapegoated the entire staff he had constructed just a year ago, in order to justify their owner keeping him around, rather than paying him to not provide his services. Their 2025 team has already been put in the record books for being the first in NFL (Super Bowl era) history to end a season without a single interception. Yet, I won’t put a number on the turnovers and league ranking they’ll need to produce here, since that’s the one area we can attribute to bad luck for New York, while I thought their general play continued to decline on that side of the ball. Even though new DC Brian Duker isn’t expected to assume play-calling responsibilities, their personnel additions suggest a certain schematic shift, and what level they can perform at should be the main factor in deciding if Glenn sticks around. Offensively, with better O-line play in front of him and Frank Reich hopefully having a more comprehensive plan, the hope is that Geno Smith can rebound in his return to Gang Green. While he’s only on a one-year, 3.3-million-dollar contract, the Jets did prioritize a more complete weaponry arsenal around the position, including a pair of first-round pass-catchers. Therefore, even if winning more games might force them to spare all their draft assets collected, priority number one should be to establish a supporting cast that a rookie quarterback next year can mix into and not go to waste.
AFC South:
Houston Texans 
Moving along to the South and thinking back to what the temperature was around the AFC in December, the Texans and Jaguars were probably viewed as the two hottest teams entering the playoffs, even if the Broncos and Patriots might’ve been a little more consistent throughout, and had earned the top two seeds. The recipe for Houston to navigate their way through the conference as a Wildcard was pretty clear – C.J. Stroud makes a handful of key throws to put points on the board, and then you let that hungry pack of hyenas on defense loose. Unfortunately, the first part of that didn’t come true, as the quarterback put together probably his worst two-game stretch as a pro, and got them knocked out in the Divisional Round once more, as he couldn’t stop trying to hand the Patriots the football in a game that would be won by whoever gave the opposing defense fewer chances. Now, while the recent trend is concerning, what I believe has happened since is that people overweigh those two performances, since C.J. was basically an average quarterback throughout the regular season, and the former Offensive Rookie of the Year has shown that he can reach superior heights. Finally, supporting him with a reliable run game and the protection to not start seeing ghosts will be essential in accessing those, which trading for David Montgomery and their continued investments in the O-line should provide. They hope that formula allows them to make it to the AFC Championship game for the first in their franchise history, behind a balanced offense and that dominant defense.
Indianapolis Colts 
Sandwiched between the two ascending playoff teams from this division are the Colts, who after the first ten weeks, were the biggest story of last season. Obviously, things fell apart in horrendous fashion, closing out the year with seven straight losses, thanks to coming back to reality to a certain degree, but more glaringly, Daniel Jones tearing his Achilles, and a few key defensive contributors getting banged up as well. With that in the rearview mirror – and “Indiana Jones” hopefully close to 100% when the 2026 season kicks off – I believe there’s reason for optimism based on what they had shown us up to that moment of disaster. The quarterback himself showed the best pocket presence and negative play avoidance of his career, Shane Steichen was at the forefront of dictating terms to opponents with how he packaged plays and deployed his personnel, and Jonathan Taylor was running wild when they had that level of balance. Expecting them to repeat that historical efficiency would be asinine, but I also believe their defensive play with a new linebacker tandem has plenty of room upwards, and they added a couple of other quality pieces for Lou Anarumo in his second season at DC, now likely opening up the playbook quite a bit. Overall, for Steichen and GM Chris Ballard to be retained, they’ll need to build on what got them off to an 8-2 start last year and at least play a highly competitive playoff game. Justifying the Sauce Gardner trade, at least for the most part, will be a necessary piece to this along the way.
Jacksonville Jaguars 
As I already referenced, the Jags seemed to be on a mission entering January, riding an eight-game win streak into their Wildcard Round contest at home against the Bills. Unfortunately, they showed their inexperience in those situations, allowing Josh Allen and company to take control late, in an evenly matched affair that was ultimately won by the team making fewer mistakes. I’m kind of torn concerning how I should feel about them heading into this upcoming season, because on one hand I can absolutely buy into them building on the turnaround under Liam Coen, but at the same time, all of their division foes – as is the case with most teams at this stage of the calendar – look stronger on paper. I’m not so sure that’s true for Jacksonville. For as maligned as the Nate Boerkircher (Texas A&M) selection in the second round was, in an optimal world, he’s a highly qualified TE2 who makes their multi-tight-end sets more viable, jumping on the biggest offensive trend in the league currently. Otherwise, their starting 22 is basically identical, while Chris Rodriguez – who was an All-SEC running back for Coen at Kentucky, to be fair – replaces their definitive leader in scrimmage yards (1399) and touchdowns (13) in Travis Etienne, and Ventrell Miller is supposed to step up after allowing All-Pro linebacker Devin Lloyd to walk in free agency. So, at the risk of repeating myself about people potentially turning on kid genius James Gladstone you’d want to see them set up Travis Hunter to look worthy of last year’s major investment and have it boost them to a playoff win.
Tennessee Titans 
The bar is a lot lower for the fourth team in the AFC South, coming off back-to-back top-five selections in the draft, and now fielding its third completely overhauled coaching staff in the last four years. Although their back-and-forth between firing head coaches and general managers was an underlying story for the past 15 years, there was no denying that they shouldn’t have given Brian Callahan a second chance, and allowed him to oversee the development of first overall pick Cam Ward. Their offensive line didn’t come together as intended, under his father as their position coach, their receiving corp struggled to consistently create separation and/or let him down with drops, but at the basis, they simply weren’t able to simplify things for a signal-caller entering the league, and asked him to problem-solve on the fly instead. Certainly, the standard has to be higher for their defense than surrendering 28.1 points per game (28th in the NFL), but that is implied by spending 172 million dollars guaranteed on free agents and hiring Robert Saleh rather than tying an offensive head coach to the hip of their young QB. Instead, bringing in Brian Daboll to run the show, and allowing him to choose their biggest financial commitment with receiver Wan’Dale Robinson, is supposed to turn things around. So, the main priority has to be to set up an infrastructure for Cam Ward to remind everyone why he was the first overall pick in 2025 and play meaningful football by Christmas.
AFC West:
Denver Broncos 
Similarly to the Jaguars, who actually were the only team to take down the Broncos at Mile High in the regular season, prior to the Patriots taking advantage of Bo Nix being knocked out for the AFC Championship game, this is a team that’s bringing back all but two of their primary 22 starters between offense and defense. I’d argue that Denver actually might’ve gotten stronger though, considering John Franklin-Meyers on their D-line is the only name they probably didn’t want to move on from, and they made the big trade for former Dolphins wide receiver Jaylen Waddle, who’s supposed to be the final piece of the puzzle. You could throw Dre Greenlaw into that former bucket, but they could’ve certainly handled his price tag, and Vance Joseph has now coordinated top-five defenses in back-to-back years without well-known names at linebacker, constantly adapting his style to stay ahead of the opposition. The fun wrinkle to the Broncos offense in 2026 is that Sean Payton, somewhat surprisingly, handed over play-calling duties to Davis Webb, even if I’d expected him to still be very much involved in the game-planning and day-to-day operation. If Waddle can provide those splash plays at a more regular level and create more air within the coverages they’re facing, and Joseph can keep his foot on the gas defensively, to doubt the possibility of Bo Nix taking the next step and for them to defend their AFC West title.
Kansas City Chiefs 
Only winning six games is completely unfamiliar territory for a Chiefs team that has been the class of the conference – and really the league altogether – since Patrick Mahomes took over for Alex Smith in 2018. While they don’t measure themselves in individual awards or statistical bars they want to clear, I do feel like reminding people that his debut season remains the only one in which he took home MVP honors. Having said that, what Pat does on a down-to-down basis to keep the offense on schedule isn’t properly measured in any way, but the load he has to carry also speaks to them being a little behind the eight ball schematically. As we’ve seen guys like Sean McVay set new trends and things being copied around the league, Andy Reid and company haven’t really been part of that discussion. Paying up for reigning Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker to supply more explosives from the running back spot, and bringing back Eric Bieniemy, could signal a shift in philosophy. Simultaneously, I feel more confident in veteran DC Steve Spagnuolo not having lost his fastball yet, but rather needing the guys who can execute on the field. Trading away a proven commodity like Trent McDuffie obviously can’t be viewed as a net positive, but I’m intrigued by their almost entirely overhauled secondary, and them having more “juice” up front again. Opposed to what I just outlined with their AFC West foes, I want the Chiefs to have a real identity on both sides of the football and snatch back the division crown from Denver.
Las Vegas Raiders 
Well, the only way is up for the Raiders, after just selecting first overall in the draft. While we can disagree on what the involvement of minority owner Tom Brady should look like, recognizing that a quick fix last year’s attempt isn’t in the cards, and that the smartest thing is to maybe not push Fernando Mendoza out there right away, appears to be a sound strategy. I could go back to the areas of failure from 2025, when even I overvalued the known commodities they tried to implement, but they’ve clearly shown a commitment to investing into the offensive line – including re-setting the center market with former Ravens Pro Bowler Tyler Linderbaum – and overhauled the highly vulnerable second level of their defense by re-uniting former Georgia Bulldogs Nakobe Dean and Quay Walker. Although extensive battles in training camp for the order within their secondary are at hand, simply by that, hopefully having a healthy Maxx Crosby and adding more options across from him on the edge, they at least look more qualified personnel-wise. In contrast to that, Jalen Nailor as part of their WR rotation, appears to be the biggest skill-position addition. Yet, bringing in Klint Kubiak, who was able to elevate Seattle’s offense to a Super Bowl, and has earned trust that a much higher level of competence can be expected, with a veteran in Kirk Cousins as an extension of him. That’s the bottom line – showcase a cohesive offensive plan for Fernando Mendoza to look like the future of this franchise once he’s inserted.
Los Angeles Chargers 
Last but not least, there’s understandable buzz around these Chargers, for as often as they have been falsely labelled as offseason darlings in the past. Just on the surface, linking up Justin Herbert with an innovative offensive play-caller like Mike McDaniel creates exciting possibilities, considering what the quarterback has put on display despite not receiving a ton of help play-design-wise, and where the Dolphins have been ranked in recent years despite a far more limited quarterback physically. Even if I’m hesitant about this renovated interior O-line, the edges should be far stronger with their excellent tackle tandem being back, and Kimani Vidal might now be the most overqualified RB3 in the league. On the flip side, Chris O’Leary being shipped out to L.A. again, after following a year under Jesse Minter with a season as defensive coordinator at Western Michigan, understandably leads to more questions. At the same time, Dalvin Tomlinson replacing Da’Shawn Hand on that Chargers D-line will likely be the only change in terms of starting lineup, and I’d expect this system, which Jesse Minter and Seahawks HC Mike Macdonald modernized and installed under Jim Harbaugh at Michigan, to be largely retained. What the exact modifications look like and if they can be a top-six unit in EPA per play for a third straight season is yet to be seen. Honestly, I want them to set the table for Justin Herbert to prove “the haters” wrong and win an actual playoff game.
Halil's Real Footballtalk 