The following conversation goes against what the NFL’s shield is trying to sell the public at the start of every single season – the idea of all 32 teams having a chance to hoist the Lombardi Trophy at the end of it. As much as I love how they strive for parity, conceiving anything but achieving the ultimate goal as a failure would always leave all but one fan base dissatisfied. Generally, I sway away from asking questions like the one in the title, but due to several factors, I thought laying out which factors we should pay attention to and what constitutes a “successful campaign” was particularly interesting this year.

I’m fully aware that this by no means is an innovative concept, but looking back at this past season, I thought the gap between “the rich and the poor” was as large as ever once we got to around Thanksgiving. So I do believe it’s important to offer a frame of context for how we should probably view what these franchises are about to put onto the field once we kick things off. For some teams, simply measuring it by where the journey ends for them in 2025 is fair, yet for others, showing growth in certain areas may be even more crucial for their future outlook.

We’ll go through them all by division here!

 

NFC North:

 

 

Chicago Bears 

For a team with a defense that ranked top ten in basically every meaningful metric over the second half of 2023 (once they had traded for Montez Sweat) and drafted USC star quarterback Caleb Williams first overall, along with another wide receiver in the top-ten, the Bears certainly didn’t live up to the hype this past season. There was some natural regression to the mean along with a lack of help from their ancillary pass-rushers, while leaky protections and questionable offensive designs with poor teaching accentuated the worst parts of the rookie QB’s game. Having said that, losing one game on a Hail Mary and multiple moments of horrendous game/time management made the final record look even worse. With Dennis Allen coming in to take over quality personnel well-suited for how he wants to operate, with help up front, a completely overhauled interior of their O-line, and one of the premier offensive play-callers, there’s plenty of reason for (hopefully somewhat tempered) optimism. What people in the Chicago area should hope for is that Ben Johnson makes Caleb Williams look like a potential future league MVP, eliminating some of the catastrophic plays by setting him up for more in-structure success, and for the defense to look closer to 2023 again.

 

Detroit Lions 

When reports came out about how Dan Campbell told his players following the 2023/4 NFC Championship game that “this may have been [their] only shot”, you could regard those comments as harsh but also potentially truthful, as we think about how tough it is to reach the mountain top. Now, that certainly didn’t manifest itself in the following season, as Detroit won 15 games and was the number one seed in the NFC, but after losing in upset fashion to the upstart Commanders, they’re now replacing both their offensive and defensive coordinators, who many considered top-five play-callers on their respective sides of the ball prior to receiving their chances at head coaching gigs. They’re also losing a stalwart of this regime in All-Pro center Frank Ragnow to retirement, who not only touched the ball first on every offensive snap but also epitomized everything they have been about since Dan Campbell arrived in Motown. The silver lining in this situation is that it’s nearly impossible to repeat their bad injury luck from this past season, and with Kelvin Sheppard as their homegrown linebacker coach being elevated, there should be good stability with better talent available consistently. For John Morton to come over from Denver and be as clever a play-designer as Ben Johnson feels more like a pipedream. Yet, what I’d be wishing for is for both these new men in charge to look fully capable of preserving this team as a contender for the confidence with an extended window, to where it doesn’t feel like a (soft) reset is necessary.

 

Green Bay Packers 

With far fewer established pieces among the defensive lineup, it’s understandable that many Cheeseheads would actually have more questions about that unit than an offense that has consistently been at least a top-ten unit every year under Matt LaFleur. However, as head-scratching as it can be that Jeff Hafley was able to easily clear that bar in his first season in charge of the defense, with his willingness to open up a wide menu of coverages and the ball-hawking skills of Xavier McKinney being huge pieces to this, until a couple of pass-rushers truly step up for them, they’ll be subject to the general volatility coming with that side of the ball. Accepting that, I believe they should be more so measured by the progress they can show with an already strong infrastructure around Jordan Love. He needs to remind us of the version of him that we saw over the second half of 2023, and a key component to turning it into tangible results is that they find a way to utilize the guys on the receiving end in a meaningful way. Last year, it didn’t feel like they were able to rely upon who they could truly feature on a weekly basis. Putting stress on the top-tier opponents with their scoring potential, while putting the ball in harm’s way less frequently, will determine if they’re part of that top tier of the NFC.

 

Minnesota Vikings 

You can debate how heavily to weigh which exact factors when it comes to grading the supporting cast for quarterbacks. Nonetheless, I don’t see a path where you don’t frame all the ancillary pieces in Minnesota as one of the best situations you can imagine for a young quarterback. On any given day, you can rank both Kevin O’Connell and Brian Flores as top-five coordinators on either side of the ball, Justin Jefferson highlights one the premiere receiving corps in the league, they completely overhauled the interior O-line as the one questionable unit, and this may be the most opportunistic defense when it comes to getting to ball back for their own attack. That’s why – even though the organization officially never admitted to contemplating the QB situation – they were flirting with the idea of going all-in on this immediate championship window they might have with Aaron Rodgers. So, despite only ever having played for parts of one preseason game, there is a certain level of pressure on the shoulders of J.J. McCarthy, who they chose with the tenth overall pick in the ’24 draft as the long-term solution. They may take a step back in the regular season from what they were able to accomplish with Sam Darnold at the helm, but J.J. needs to repay the organization’s trust in him, to where it justifies making these investments that feel like finishing touches.

 

 

NFC East:

 

 

Dallas Cowboys 

I absolutely believe people are generally quick to overreact to the lows we’ve seen from the Cowboys, especially when it comes to some ugly playoff exits – which the extensive media category by mainstream outlets and an impetuous owner massively contribute towards – but let’s acknowledge here that this team won 12 games in three straight years under Mike McCarthy before losing their quarterback for half of last season and going 7-10. And yet, I frequently find myself frustrated with how they handle business relationships, and they appear somewhat stuck in the mud, particularly after simply promoting offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer after parting ways with their previous head coach. That’s why I understand anything short of making it back to Conference Championship Sunday for the first time in 30 years might be seen as a failure, assuming they can lock up one of the NFL’s premier defensive players in Micah Parsons. I’ll be a little more realistic here and say this – win a playoff game, in which Dak Prescott retains his level of play from the regular season, and the defense doesn’t showcase an obvious shortcoming that their opponents can pick at. Hiring Matt Eberflus I generally believe has its merits, but I can already imagine a path where the schematic simplicity from his Chicago days may lead to the same story as in years past.

 

New York Giants  

For as much fun as the public likes to make about the Jets, the other New York team surprisingly making the playoffs in Brian Daboll’s first year as the head coach in 2022, somewhat overshadows the fact that they’ve otherwise been a bottom-feeder franchise for basically a decade now. Their ownership situation doesn’t loom over them in the same way, and they’ve made more moves recently that felt calculated appropriately, but the results haven’t been far off. Going into this upcoming season with the expectation that this current regime needs to make the playoffs in order to prove their worth simply would be completely unreasonable when looking at their hellacious schedule, but the circumstances sort of dictate it. Signing Jameis Winston on very much a backup salary initially before becoming the next stop in Russell Wilson’s highly underwhelming second career chapter, and finally trading back into the late first round for Ole Miss’ Jaxson Dart further complicates what their outlook might be. Therefore, we have to consider the most important pieces are to make a firm commitment to a coaching staff and quarterback, as starting points. I don’t know if this could save the jobs of the current head figures, but being in the playoff race until December and then seeing promising flashes with a well-prepared rookie in Dart, would be the optimal case. And I believe Giants fans would feel a lot better about having one truly difference-making area of their team, which this defensive front has a good chance of turning into.

 

Philadelphia Eagles  

Where do you set the marker for a team that just hoisted the Lombardi trophy, whose only loss following their week five bye came on a last-second touchdown in a game without their starting quarterback beyond the first series in Washington, and who they went on to thrash in the NFC title game, before doing the same to the pre-eminent franchise of the sport since Patrick Mahomes became the starter in Kansas City? Sure, they’re replacing their right guard spot, one of their three key guys of the interior rotation on their D-line, and they’ll have a couple of new starters in the secondary, but they’ve re-loaded at all those positions and have guys coming up in the ranks to maintain that level of play. The one element I do generally caution people about is over-indexing for what Jalen Hurts did in those final two contests, considering they otherwise were dead-average in dropback success rate, and similarly to 2022, promoted Kevin Patullo in-house to take over offensive play-calling. Still, barring an injury that would knock out one of their key players – and they have several that would fit that description for most teams, who I’m not even considering as such for them – I think it’s fair to say “repeat as Super Bowl champions”.

Washington Commanders  

 

Right off the bat, this franchise clearly was ahead of schedule last season, when they went from picking second overall to finishing as one of the final two teams competing for a conference title. Philadelphia running away with that game probably did serve as a reminder of that fact, and I would’ve advised them not to overreact in some of their decisions, which might make it more challenging to go all the way towards the back-end of Jayden Daniels’ rookie contract. I’d argue their offseason reflects that to some degree, but some of their choices for which veterans to bring in or even retain, make it feel like they’re trying to find a solid middle ground. This Commander defense was by no means a net positive unit, but rather they were opportunistic in big moments. And I don’t believe they added substantial reinforcements, more so shipping in the mid-tier free agency market. Meanwhile, when I asked if the addition of book-end offensive tackles by trading for former Texan Laremy Tunsil and picking Oregon’s Josh Conerly Jr. would “embolden more of a dropback pass game” as part of my burning questions for each NFC team, I was referring to how they may add a new layer to a well-orchestrated yet fairly simplistic offensive system under Kliff Kingsbury. Not being stagnant, proving that last season wasn’t a flash in the pan and at least winning another playoff game, I would consider success.

 

 

NFC South:

 

 

Atlanta Falcons 

Still having a quarterback with an average annual salary of 45 million dollars hanging around to sit on the bench as of right now, and a defense with about half of the starting lineup consisting of new personnel and a different coordinator, would rarely be considered an enviable set-up. Nonetheless, being projected to at least match their win total of eight from the previous year, when the Bucs have won the NFC South with an average record of barely above .500 these past three seasons, it’s hard to deny that they could absolutely factor into the playoff picture in a meaningful way. The offense alone has five top-ten picks among it and three others in the top-40, while they doubled down on night one of this past draft to finally solve their pass-rush problems. Even though I don’t see any outcome where a well-informed NFL consumer comes away thinking this is a healthy way of operating as they go through some of the expensive moves GM Terry Fontenot has made, I’d say the objective to at least justify their internal belief in Michael Penix Jr. and a couple of their high-stakes draft investments on defense to pay off. Taking the continued improvement Tampa Bay has made in the Baker Mayfield era, I won’t say Atlanta *has to* actually host a postseason contest, but they should at least participate in one to really feel good about where they’re going.

 

Carolina Panthers 

The bar is certainly a lot lower for the Panthers, considering their second-quarterback looked like he might be out of the league soon purely based on the first games of last season prior to him getting benched, while the defense set a new NFL record with 534 points allowed. I released a video just last week on how Bryce Young resurrected his career once he was re-inserted into the lineup and with eighth overall pick Teteiroa McMillan (Arizona) profiling as that big-bodied, reliable X receiver they had been so desperately missing, there’s reason to bet on continued growth. The defense however, outside of getting back Derrick Brown and Josey Jewell – who missed pretty much all of 2024 – is relying on Ejiro Evero in his third try at it, to turn things around with safety Tre’von Moehrig as the only veteran addition I would label anything more than “replacement-level starter quality”. Due to my skepticism about that group climbing the ranks, even though it at least shouldn’t be historically bad, setting a bar for wins they’re supposed to reach wouldn’t make a whole lot of sense. What Carolina fans should seek is for Bryce Young to look like a legit franchise quarterback and the defense to finally just look like a comprehensive, functional unit.

 

New Orleans Saints  

When I recently outlined one burning question for each NFC team ahead of 2025 and got to the Saints, I landed on more of an esoteric way of thinking about them, asking how much of a priority winning this year was going to be for the people in charge. I continue to wonder how the end results we’ve seen with them would justify continuing to “kick the can down the road” when it comes to handling veteran contracts, in order to maintain a competitive team. That whole model was somewhat disrupted, or at least presented an alternative path with Derek Carr’s sudden retirement in the middle of March. Since that was after basically all meaningful personnel decisions had already been made, it’s tough to say if ownership maybe started with a different way of thinking about their short-term future and how this new coaching staff, led by first-team head-man Kellen Moore, views this opportunity. By all means, as currently constructed, they’re expected to own a top-ten pick next April. Therefore, I believe the answer is to either admit to an unsustainable model of roster building and commit to legitimate change OR to make a few switches to younger pieces who show real promise. The question in the latter case would be if Tyler Shough was one of those – somewhat ironically, since he’ll be 26 years old less than a month into his rookie season – or if they believe they can just plug in a quarterback in next year’s draft.

 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers  

Even though I’m sure Saints fans aren’t happy about me completely disregarding their chances of competing for a playoff spot, I believe it’s fair to say the Bucs are the only team in this division, where their path for actually making noise in January isn’t solely an idea. Even though they hadn’t qualified for the postseason before week 18 last season, they’ve now had the crown for four straight seasons. While they’ve undergone a shift at quarterback along with their defense only really reminding you of the unit that boosted their Super Bowl run four years ago based on the men calling the shots, I view them as a largely established commodity. New OC Josh Grizzard faces the challenging task of maintaining close to the level they showed under Liam Coen, and they’ll need some young defenders to take the next step, but the bones of this organization are very solid. Tampa could be dealing with potentially at least two tougher challengers, as the Falcons have fully made the switch to Michael Penix Jr. leading a very talented offensive lineup, and a Panthers team that proved to be a thorn in the eyes of multiple playoff teams until the defense let up late, with the way Bryce Young re-made himself. Yet, I’d say expecting to win a home playoff game, with the defense making a few more stops when truly needed, is very reasonable.

 

 

NFC West:

 

 

Arizona Cardinals 

It’s rather easy to reduce a team from Glendale, Arizona to whether or not they at least “make the tournament”, but I believe the goal here is pretty simple – earn a playoff spot. The Cardinals have clearly done some interesting things since this iteration of the coaching staff and front office took over in 2023, when it comes to how they almost completely overhauled the roster and how they tried to mitigate talent disparity compared to their opponents with exotic ideas and a unique style of play on both sides of the ball. They went 4-13 in their first year, as they were taking over – and to a large degree parted ways with – the remaining pieces of the Steve Keim iteration of the team, and then doubled their win total this past season. What that doesn’t depict however is them losing six of their matchups following their bye week before closing out with a meaningless win over a broken-down 49ers team. Fittingly, this came right after I posted a video titled “How the Cardinals have become NFL bullies”, more so regarding their style of play rather than crowning them a legitimate contender, as they shot themselves in the foot on numerous occasions and the lack of proven talent on defense especially, did you show up in the end. In terms of the bottom line, I’d say they are on track, making the postseason the next logical step.

 

Los Angeles Rams  

This one is kind of odd, because there were extensive trade discussions around Matt Stafford – as confounding as they were to me – before agreeing on a restructured contract with multiple void years added onto it, and then signing former All-Pro receiver Davante Adams just a couple of days later. The fact that L.A. started off 1-4 somewhat clouds our memory that after the ensuing bye week, the only loss that didn’t come at the hands of the Eagles for the rest of the season was an odd Monday Night game against the Dolphins (disregarding when they set almost all starters in week 18). Since then, they’ve basically swapped out Cooper Kupp for Davante, provided themselves more flexibility to go to 12 personnel, and their defense remains fully intact, with a rising young line. So as crazy as this sounds, considering the Rams are not even quite betting favorites to win their own division, I believe falling to any NFC team not named Philadelphia (again) can be considered them coming short of how they set themselves up. The one factor to consider here however is that even if Stafford decides to turn down the opportunity to return for the second year of that new deal, they have extra ammo in next year’s draft, thanks to moving down this past April, in return for Atlanta’s 2026 first-rounder.

 

San Francisco 49ers  

Although there are certain differences, this past season for the Niners felt quite similar to 2020, when a myriad of injuries also derailed their chances of returning to the Super Bowl, after coming up just short against the Chiefs on the biggest stage. Them winning exactly six games in both those years only further highlights that. Those were the only two of the last six seasons for San Francisco where they didn’t at least make it to the NFC Championship game, by the way. For the Faithful, that may be the baseline expectation, and even though some of the mainstream media outlets might’ve gotten over-fixated on losing a few veteran contributors that had fallen off recently, there’s logic to why they’re once again in a favorable position to make a deep run. What felt different about this past season to me, was that they weren’t the ones dictating terms on offense like they have done for most Kyle Shanahan’s time in the Bay and that they lost their identity on defense, too often getting moved off the ball in the run game and not playing with fast eyes in coverage, because they knew their D-line could tee off. Robert Saleh re-establishing that in his return and Kyle newly imagining this dropback pass game they’ve continued to lean further into with Brock Purdy – even if the lacking presence of a healthy Christian McCaffrey did contribute to it – are what I’m looking for.

 

Seattle Seahawks  

When people talk about the 2024 Seahawks, it never feels like they’re doing so with the proper framing of a 10-7 team. That’s after winning nine games each of the prior two seasons, for that matter. Even though there were some flaws, with a horrendous offensive line apart from their (healthy) left tackle and a defense that had its moments but is still searching for true impact players in the front-seven at least. I feel pretty confident about that latter unit taking the next step under Mike Macdonald, projecting growth by at least last year’s first-rounder Byron Murphy II. I think it’s very fair to have questions about the offense. The flexibility 18^th overall pick Grey Zabel provides them helps me see a path for the interior of that front to be at least passable, but I’m unsure about the construction of this receiving corp, and for anyone who believes that going from Geno Smith to Sam Darnold at quarterback isn’t a substantial downgrade, I’d say they massively underestimate their difference in circumstances last season. The financial relief that could provide and a shift in how they want to operate generally seem to be driving motivators. For those to be satisfied, Seattle would either have to make the playoffs with Darnold or have justified confidence to move on from his contract for what Jalen Milroe showed you across multiple games. They took a flamethrower to this offense altogether, and we’ll now have to see if Klint Kubiak can sustain a formidable attack after early sparks as the OC in New Orleans.

 

 

AFC North:

 

 

Baltimore Ravens   

Several weeks ago by now, I listened to an episode of “The Athletic Football Show” (as I rarely ever miss one and would highly recommend it to you), in which they discussed the mindsets of last year’s two MVP front-runners Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen, as they’ve continued to ascend in the pantheon of all-time great quarterbacks, but their progress in the playoffs has stagnated. And the point I struggle with, as I think about the discourse coming out of many of those contests, is that they have at least recently obviously not been the ones to blame. So how they compartmentalize the idea of refining how they play the position and embracing the grind of up to a 21-week season, as they try to finally get over the hump, is fascinating to me. If DeAndre Hopkins can at least be that veteran wide receiver Baltimore has continued to bring in at the end of their careers, who can win the occasional jump-ball and secure tough grabs over the middle, this offense should once again be near the top of the league. The defense was already there over the second half of last season, once Zach Orr settled in as play-caller and they settled on a few personnel decisions in the secondary. Everything is right there to expect them to at least make it to the Super Bowl.

 

Cincinnati Bengals  

One thing that’s certain about the 2024 Bengals is that they underperformed in terms of the final win-loss record. Missing the playoffs despite having the triple-crown winners at quarterback and wide receiver, along with a running back posting 1350 scrimmage yards, and the league’s leader in sacks, seems almost unfathomable. Obviously, Trey Hendrickson was the only bright spot along that defense, as they received underwhelming contributions from all three levels of that unit, and consequently moved on from veteran DC Lou Anarumo for the man who just helped Notre Dame make it to a National Championship game in Al Golden. How many issues he can fix right away will be the main point of contempt with Cincinnati, as I outlined in a video a few weeks ago. I believe with a quarterback and a star duo of wideouts, at least winning one playoff game should be the baseline of expectation, and the top ten feels like the baseline for that side of the ball. Showing meaningful growth across your defensive lineup and not having players visibly unhappy about their contract situations should be the less measurable but fundamentally important way of what constitutes success for them in 2025.

 

Cleveland Browns  

The bar is obviously quite a bit lower for a team like the Browns, who since 2007 have only once finished higher than third in the AFC North standings and only one other time at least reached the .500 mark. Now, one of those came just two years ago, when they were riding the wave of a standout defensive season, while rotating through four different quarterbacks. And yet, there’s little reason to feel better about their set-up at the most important position, as their owner ultimately admitted this offseason that handing Deshaun Watson the biggest fully-guaranteed contract in NFL history was “a big swing and a miss”. Expecting the defense to look for the median between the heights from 2023 and the disappointment of ’24 is fairly realistic, but I’d also bring up that the O-line continuing to age and having concerns at left tackle could bring a different area of concern. As I said in my big draft recap, I did generally like a lot of what they did in the draft, acquiring that extra first-round pick from Jacksonville next year and collecting quality prospects throughout all three days, highlighted yet also possibly overshadowed by the selection of Colorado QB Shedeur Sanders in the fifth round. This is another situation where I’m less concerned with any win total, but rather I’d want them to get through the season with promise in your rookie class and clarity about your plans at quarterback.

 

Pittsburgh Steelers  

The standard is certainly a lot higher for such a respected organization like the Steelers compared to the Browns, as we’re all well aware of the fact that Mike Tomlin has never had a losing record since he became their head coach in 2007. Nonetheless, frustration has continued to build up inside their fan base about how limited their ceiling has continued to be, now waiting for them actually win a playoff game for the first time in a decade. So that pretty clearly has to be the minimum target they need to reach. I won’t go as far as to say that drastic change is required otherwise in the form of a new voice, but otherwise you wouldn’t go for as many win-now moves. Aaron Rodgers said himself that this will probably be his last ride, they obviously felt like they upgraded on the field as well in the locker room by replacing George Pickens with D.K. Metcalf, and even though I have to believe parting ways with Minkah Fitzpatrick was more so the result of frustration with his role as a leader, basically swapping him for Jalen Ramsey and Jonnu Smith – Arthur Smith’s favorite yards-after-catch toy – is a decision that’s supposed to help them on both sides of the ball.

 

 

AFC East:

 

 

Buffalo Bills   

I would implore you to scroll back up and read my paragraph on the Baltimore Ravens, as it pertains to the conversation around last year’s first-team All-Pro Lamar Jackson but also MVP Josh Allen continuing to master the quarterback position in the face of repeatedly coming up short in their attempts of quite pushing their teams over the top once the postseason rolls around. Consequently, anything short of making it to the Super Bowl can be considered a failure or at least stagnation. Aside from a contract dispute with running back James Cook, the offense remains fully intact, with some likely internal growth and a couple of shots taken at receiving help. As GM Brandon Beane made very clear when he addressed why they didn’t make it more of a priority to invest into that latter position group, their focus was on overhauling the defense to a certain degree, as they drafted three names on the D-line and in the secondary each, along with bringing in Joey Bosa, Shaq Thompson and a pair of veteran corners that are fully familiar with this system. How willing they are to tap into a few new ideas and if they can get off the field more consistently on third downs, after finishing 28^th in conversion rate allowed last year (43.8%) will be pivotal.

 

Miami Dolphins 

It feels like we’ve reached a critical juncture with this Dolphins team. Since the arrival of Mike McDaniel, they’ve gone 25-and-16 when they’ve had Tua Tagovailoa available. He did miss at least a month in two of those three seasons however, and they have yet to beat the allegations of being a “soft team”, as uttered by one of their former players DeShon Elliott, when it comes to battling the titans of the AFC and overall, putting their best stuff on the field when the calendar turns over to December/January. How much more of a physical toughness we can gauge from them with reinforcements on both sides of the line was a topic I covered already in a recent video. I’m a big fan of Anthony Weaver, who came over to be their defensive coordinator a year ago, and impressed with his ability to create pressure combined with getting to different coverage rotations behind it that don’t provide opposing quarterbacks easy answers. How much growth we might see from their between-the-tackle run game and how they challenge defensive structures with the next tweak to their passing identity feels more crucial. Ultimately, they need to show why ownership should be confident in a future with this coaching staff and quarterback, which at least reaching and being competitive in a Wildcard Round game, would be helpful for.

 

New England Patriots  

I have sung the praises of this offseason for New England, when it comes to establishing an infrastructure for second-year quarterback Drake Maye to take the next step, I expect him to be capable of, indicated by me writing about him as a potential breakout candidate. You combine that with quality free agent acquisitions at all three levels of their defense, and there’s a strong chance Mike Vrabel immediately has them at least challenging for a playoff berth, if things fall right with a fourth-place schedule and only one team with a winning record in the AFC East. We should be a little reluctant to get ahead of ourselves when it comes to how much of a jump they’ll be able to make, since they’re projected to more than double their previous win total. I’d say, if they do win eight or more games, while Drake Maye shows continued growth and a couple of veteran defenders re-invigorate this defense to a certain degree, that should be viewed as a positive step and then I’d be excited to view them as a group capable of making noise in January of 2026/27. By then, a large, promising rookie class would have a year under their belt as well.

 

New York Jets  

Contrary to the anticipated ascent of the Patriots, the Jets are a team for which expectations have gotten significantly dampened by what has happened over the past two seasons and especially how it all fell apart in 2024, to where they’ve completely overhauled the front office, coaching staff and told quarterback Aaron Rodgers that they want to move on after calling him into the building. As dysfunctional as the organization has felt for a lengthy period now, owner Woody Johnson has to be delusional if he believes Aaron Glenn and crew can turn things around immediately with a quarterback available for anyone to sign as a free agent in Justin Fields and a defense that should at least have four new starters, after dropping off massively last season compared to previously. Instead, he should take a big step back and allow this regime to prove that there’s a new wind blowing in Florham Park and that they can be a competitive team that no one likes to face. There’s absolutely a path where that O-line now comes together to be a legit plus unit, they run the hell out of the ball, and they can get after people with their pass-rush when they find themselves in positive game scripts.

 

 

AFC South:

 

 

Houston Texans 

Looking back at this past season for the Texans is kind of funny, because not only did they make it to the exact same point as the year prior, when C.J. Stroud put together an all-time rookie quarterback season and it led them being a popular Super Bowl pick for 2024, but they were just one point behind in Kansas City heading into the fourth quarter of that game, compared to being outmatched in that previous Divisional Round matchup. Still, it didn’t feel like they lived up to the hype that had built up around them, with the down-to-down inconsistencies on offense. With hindsight, it’s easy to say that they overestimated their ability to capitalize on a few short-term veteran additions. At the same time, moving on from Stefon Diggs and making a change at play-caller now appear to be net positives, as much as trading away left tackle Laremy Tunsil still confounds me. So even though they’re betting on some unproven commodities to give them better results, with the re-shuffled O-line and more so an idea of what Nick Caley can be in a coordinator role, I’d call this an accomplishment – make it to the AFC Championship behind a dominant defense and an offense that doesn’t put everything on the quarterback’s shoulders.

 

Indianapolis Colts  

With people from Indy dealing with the harsh reality of their favorite NBA team going from game seven of the Finals to probably having more of a bridge year without their key player, their focus will shift back towards the Colts – and I’m not sure how much excitement they can currently muster up for that group. By no means has this been a bad team over the first two seasons with Shane Steichen at the helm. They’ve been a perfectly even .500 despite the guy they centered their future around in Anthony Richardson missing exactly half of his games as a pro. The problem here is what he has presented when available, beyond the sparks he showed over the first month of his rookie campaign, prior to hurting his throwing shoulder. You could write a whole article about the injuries, different comments about his working habits, the fact he subbed himself off the field at one point (even if that story may have been slightly overblown), and of course, now being in a competition with free agency addition Daniel Jones. With how much the outlook of this regime is tied to the QB position, I struggle to see any future for this whole group if the veteran outright wins the job. So the two requirements here are to make Richardson work – as in, embody a competent starter – and have the defense look like a modern unit that highlights the strengths of their individual pieces.

 

Jacksonville Jaguars  

For as much excitement as there was around the second-year quarterbacks in Houston and Indianapolis, last year’s regime in Duval already had committed to their former number one overall pick when they handed him a five-year, 275-million-dollar contract. I made a video to illustrate why I believe he’s worthy of that kind of trust, and even more so to voice my frustrations with how he was asked to operate in that offense. Certainly, I don’t believe you can alleviate all blame from Trevor Lawrence for how last season went, until he took that dirty hit to the facemask by Texans linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair, but I think the reasonable way to approach this is to see what he looks like in Liam Coen’s system, and with a defense that hopefully is anything better than the second-worst unit in the entire league statistically, ahead of only Carolina. Their new DC Anthony Campanile is one of the bigger unknowns for me as I try to put together the pieces for 2025, but I would say that they have a few young, still ascending players. What’s more important is for Coen to install a run game they can rely upon, and in return, they should challenge for a playoff spot down the stretch.

 

Tennessee Titans  

Lots of quarterback talk here in the AFC South, which I typically try to sway away from, but outside of Houston, all others are so much tied to how they “solve” that position, in quite different ways. I have talked before about things I’ve liked seeing from this coaching staff. Brian Callahan didn’t handle his frustrations about Will Levis appropriately with the media, but he did provide him a fundamentally sound basis that was disintegrated by drive-killing sacks and game-changing turnovers. Meanwhile, I was even more impressed by what Dennard Wilson did with that defense than the other former member of Baltimore’s staff Anthony Weaver showed in Miami. Cornerback L’Jarius Sneed best represented how these aggressive veteran acquisitions didn’t quite make sense with where they were in their timeline last offseason, but if he can look anything like he did in 2023 for the Chiefs, I like the construction of that unit. The way I would frame this being a rewarding season is for Cam Ward to remind people outside of Nashville that he was the number one overall pick for a reason, backed by an above-average defense metrically, and maybe not to select inside the top-10 next year.

 

 

AFC West:

 

 

Denver Broncos 

Although someone has yet to prove that they can actually snatch the crown away from the Chiefs, the AFC West has a good chance of being the strongest division in the entire league. No one challenged those guys more last year than the Broncos. It took a would-be game-winning field goal to be blocked at Arrowhead to fend them off, before Denver let out their frustrations in a week 18 contest that was meaningless for the other side, when they thrashed them 38-nothing. It’s easy to buy into them taking another step this year, with the immediate success Bo Nix had working under Sean Payton, added weaponry at the skill positions, and even though the underlying numbers wouldn’t suggest that they needed reinforcements to their defense, they continued to invest into all three levels in a way that should lead to better results when they face the elite quarterbacks in the AFC, who did test their aggressive mindset to a different capacity. I don’t want to fixate on how far they advance, but you’d want to see them at least take one (meaningful) game off Kansas City and challenge them for the division title until the final week. If the demise of Chiefs Kingdom is yet again greatly exaggerated and they win 13+ games, being a firm playoff team that gets out of the Wildcard Round would be acceptable as well.

 

Kansas City Chiefs 

It didn’t escape me that the way in which the Chiefs were declassed on the game’s biggest stage by the Eagles generated discussions about how many spots there are real questions about. They didn’t have a serious left tackle on the roster, traded away an All-Pro guard, the construction of their receiving corp was dubious, they were about to lose a couple of rotational players on their D-line and at least one of their outside corner spots looked like a weak point, depending on how they’d want to deploy Trent McDuffie going forward. And yet, although I’m certainly more dialed into the draft than most fans, I feel a lot better about all those areas after they put together one of the strongest classes league-wide. Understandably, people outside of Kansas City might anticipate/hope they take a slight step back and open the door for a Baltimore or Buffalo, who have continued to knock at it, but this is the one team across the NFL for whom the mindset of “Super Bowl or bust” actually applies. As long as they have Patrick Mahomes with Andy Reid and Steve Spagnuolo with Chris Jones, trying to push them off the AFC’s mountain top is solely wishful thinking.

 

Las Vegas Raiders  

There was plenty of separation between the Raiders as a four-win team last year and their three division rivals all making the playoffs, but with how they’ve approached this offseason, they at least clearly believe that they’re ready to close that gap. As I’ve said before, you’re not bringing in 73-year-old Pete Carroll, let him trade for his former quarterback Geno Smith from Seattle, draft a running back sixth overall, and make some of the other personnel decisions they did, if you’re seeking a lengthy overhaul. Personally, I have pretty high hopes for their coordinator duo of Chip Kelly coming back to the NFL after helping Ohio State win a national title, and Patrick Graham having quietly done an admirable job of elevating the talent at his disposal over the last three years. With a couple of key members on their D-line being fully healthy, as unproven as their secondary is, they otherwise seem a lot closer to turning things around than they’re largely given credit for. So, I’d say doubling their previous win total (from four to eight) would be a strong step, but I think they have a legitimate shot at making the playoffs.

 

Los Angeles Chargers  

The Bolts were one of the two West teams to also pleasantly earn a playoff bid in the first season of this new coaching staff, led by Jim Harbaugh. Similarly to the Broncos, they had a pretty disappointing Wildcard Round exit, losing by 20 at Houston, when they showed the shortcomings still present due to their porous interior O-line, limited receiving corp, and a defense that outperformed their level of talent throughout the regular season. They chose a rather patient approach off that, with general manager Joe Hortiz focusing on lower-budget additions and building through the draft. Still, with an often belabored yet objectively very capable quarterback like Justin Herbert and the base they’ve established, I’d take the Raiders’ objective a step further and say L.A. should actually win a playoff game. However, this one comes with a couple of caveats – they should at least be an average rushing team, have one plus pass-catchers look like long-term pieces for you, and prove that the defense can maintain last year’s level of play against high-end offenses. Having a supercomputer like Herbert provides a certain level of competence, but you don’t want to be overly reliant on him with a run game designer like Greg Roman, and they were a very simple defense in Jesse Minter’s debut campaign, which was tested in new ways by the top QBs.