It’s that time of the year! We’re just over six weeks away from the start of the 2024 NFL draft and I will spend that time presenting my top-ten prospects at every single position with in-depth evaluations, alternating between offense and defense with counterparts so to speak. I will talk about individual skill-sets, bring up relevant measurables and statistics, potential scheme fits and about where I personally value those names.
We’re kicking things off – as always – with the running backs (meaning linebackers will follow on Friday). This class lacks big names at the top, but it’s a very deep class, where we could see a run start once the first name comes off the board around the top-50 and we probably see over 20 guys get the call overall.
Let’s get straight into the list:
1. Trey Benson, Florida State
6’1”, 215 pounds; RS JR
A top-500 overall recruit in 2020, Benson started his career at Oregon, where he redshirted his true freshman season due to a gruesome knee injury which hurt basically all ligaments and only carried the ball six times for 22 yards (and a touchdown) in year two. He decided to transfer to FSU ahead of the 2022 season, where he touched the ball 167 times for 1134 yards and nine TDs, which earned him second-team All-ACC accolades. He repeated those this past year, when he basically put the exact same yardage total on nine more touches, but also six extra touchdowns.
Decision-making, run setups & footwork:
+ Shows explosion through the hole, to rip through the second level and/or slip through arm-tackle and sideway wraps
+ Looks almost like an ice-skater with the way he can press the front-side at near full-speed and then getting his feet turned North in order to cut up behind a linebacker who just committed
+ Natural in his ability to alter pace and stride length on gap plays
+ Effectively incorporates shuffle-steps as he takes the handoffs, such as on GT power, in order to allow pullers to get to their landmarks
+ Has a knack for slightering through tight creases and seemingly being held up, yet somehow squirting out of the pile
+ Understands really well how to allow crack-backs or pin-downs to get set up, by keeping his shoulders square approaches those defenders before working around them as the block is set
+ Consistently pulls his knees up high to step out of the trash in the backfield and not allow first-level defenders to trip him up as he’s crossing the line of scrimmage
+ Then when he has some more space, the short-area acceleration to get around and then to bend back up the field once he’s cleared defenders sitting in the hole pops on tape
+ Had an elite PFF grade on runs versus six, seven and eight+ defenders in the box
Open field & dealing with contact:
+ Regularly bounces off contact and keeps himself alive as a runner, with the best balance of any back in this class
+ You see him wiggle himself out of crowded spaces, where you’d feel he’s done, quite a bit
+ The leg-drive and fight this guy shows with the ball in his hands is commendable and the reason tacklers eventually let go regularly
+ The amount of times a defensive linemen slips off him trying to wrap him up from the side is pretty insane, kicking his toes up to avoid getting tripped up
+ Makes use of his off arm to stabilize or balance-touch in order to stay on his feet, as well as soften angles for himself, stiff-arm at the chest or helmet of guys in the back-seven
+ Effectively converts speed-to-power and creates yardage through contact – Averaged 4.53 yards after contact in 2022 and even at a yard lower in ’23, that’s still very impressive
+ Then when he’s closing into his top gear, Benson can efficiently veer away from pursuit defenders without losing speed and will cut inside of them at times to break through for explosive gains
+ Featured an insane 0.51 missed tackle-per-attempt rate in 2022, which was 0.1 higher than Bijan Robinson in his best season at Texas – He finished six in total missed tackles as a runner (79) despite being tied for 75th(!) in carries (154)
Passing game:
+ Will outflank linebackers with his speed out to the flats and can take them vertical as he wheels up the sideline
+ Has no issues fully extending for and plucking passes on the run, particularly with his body turned out to the sideline
+ Shows impressive body-control to adjustment for passes to his back-shoulder when a defender is stacked over top of a wheel route
+ Does a great job of using the momentum of passes to carry him up the field and immediately transitioning into becoming a runner
+ Regularly is able to pull his legs out of the wrap of defenders trying chop him down in flats and turns up the sideline
+ Glides up to his landmarks and typically protects the inside shoulder in blitz pick-up
Weaknesses:
– There’s room to improve his ability to diagnose fronts pre-snap and understand how he can affect second-level defenders with the way he presses creases in order to attack the bubble in the front
– Lacks the maturity to just get downhill and accelerate into contact in order to take what is there, particularly if the edge is closed off and he tries to get around it anyway
– His footwork on gap schemes, when he can’t just cut-and-go in one motion can look a little stiff and not as well-coordinated
– Was subbed off regularly on third downs, because he lacks violence as a pass-protector and he showed no refinement in his routes, to actually “win” before the ball is in his hands, with all swings, flats and wheels
– Suffered a horrendous knee injury as a knee injury, which could affect his long-term health if arthritis comes into play
Benson has been my RB1 since I first evaluated him in depth last summer. His explosiveness profile as a one-cut-and-go runner with the ability to clear swinging arms at him making him a very intriguing fit in a wide-zone based attack, while flashing a feel for pacing himself before hitting the gas on gap schemes. There’s certainly room for improvement when it comes to more advanced footwork to deal with traffic and maturity as a decision-maker, but if you can give him a lane to acceleration through, he’s a big play waiting to happen. What will determine how much of a featured option he can be at the next level is the development he can show in pass-pro and how well he handles a more diverse route tree, since so much of what he did was just running to space and catching the ball on the move, where the acceleration and tackle-breaking skills can really shine. As long as the medical reports indicate no major concerns for the future – and we did see him impress otherwise at the combine when he ran a 4.39 at 216 pounds – he should be the one back as a fixture in the top-50.
2. Jonathon Brooks, Texas
6‘0“, 215 pounds; JR
A four-star recruit in 2021, Brooks certainly had to work his turn behind superstar Bijan Robinson and Roschon Johnson for two years, in which he touched the ball only 54 times, but did accumulate 340 yards and seven touchdowns on those. However, as a junior he took over this backfield and produced in a massive way. On 187 carries, he racked up 1139 rushing yards and added 25 catches for 286 more yards, combining for 11 touchdowns. He tore his ACL 11 games in, but still was able to earn second-team All-Big 12 accolades.
Decision-making, run setups & footwork:
+ Showcases excellent burst, to win the corner on the front-side of perimeter-oriented runs or defeat pursuit angles after cutting across the grain
+ Capable of efficiently navigating tight creases and patiently staying behind combos
+ Efficiently transitions between horizontal/diagonal/vertical movement without having to slow his feet and pulling them away from swinging arms
+ When he sees a crease, instead of just taking running at it blindly and allowing defenders to scrape over/slip blocks, he keeps it open by staying square or even aiming at the opposite shoulder of linemen before hitting it
+ You see the quickness to stop on a dime in order to avoid penetration in the backfield and re-start before he’s being corralled
+ Recognizes opportunities to bounce vertical runs, as he keeps his shoulders squared downhill to pull up the backer and get around the edge with a jump-cut or just opening the toe effectively to bubble around
+ Has that ability to sort of glide by the inside-shoulder of blockers after pressing outside initially
+ Literally steps over the bent legs of blockers in order to stay tight to them a few times without breaking stride at all
Open field & dealing with contact:
+ Brooks’ ability to bend up the field after threatening the corner and accelerate through curvilinear movement stands out
+ Definitely has a plan when he gets those one-on-ones against safeties, throwing in some nice foot-fakes to get them to freeze and work around them
+ May not reach 23-24 mph, but his 10-to-20 acceleration to split the defense led to several chunk runs as a Longhorn last season
+ Shows tremendous awareness for pursuit defenders and when he needs to put both hands on the ball, to get it can’t get punched or ripped out
+ Excels at stepping over the arms of defenders trying to trip him up or pulling them out of their grasp, as you rarely see his ankles get clipped
+ The way he can stop and dip around tacklers who seem to have him squared up and pulling through loose wraps really stands out with Brooks
+ Understands how to turn his body and bury a shoulder into the chest of defenders in traffic, in order to drive forward through contact
+ 16 of his 187 carries in 2023 went for 15+ yards
Passing game:
+ Has natural hands to come up with challenging catches, whether he has to extend for balls in front of him or reach down when they arrive low
+ Even as his eyes are on the pass, you can tell that he’s aware of the pursuit, which shoulder to turn through and what to do after the catch
+ Deceptive in the way he sets up delayed screen passes and rarely overruns his linemen in space before they’ve attached to targets
+ You seem him fully make defenders miss after catching the ball underneath, as he threatens to race them to the sideline and then putting on the breaks to slide inside of them
+ Consistently makes sure to force blitzers to go around him, with well-timed punches
+ Able to slide across the center and still packs a punch to stymie linebackers up the A-gap effectively on multiple occasions
+ Effectively bangs his inside shoulder into edge defenders on chips, to allow his tackles to square them up, before releasing
Weaknesses:
– Doesn’t have that instant burst through a lane after delaying his approach initially to and split linebackers converging on him or beat contain defenders who stay square until he goes for the corner
– Still broadening his peripheral vision and alertness for cutback opportunities, showing a certain tunnel vision on gap plays
– While he does gain plenty of yardage after contact, Brooks isn’t somebody who’ll go straight through a linebacker in the hole when necessary or drag guys on his back
– Wasn’t asked to or showed much nuance as a route-runner, with a bunch of leak-outs
– Suffered a torn ACL at the start of December and may not be 100% at the start of the NFL season
This is very complete runner, with solid size, explosive features, make-you-miss skill and great contact balance. While he had to wait his turn with the Longhorns, Brooks showcased in his one season as a starter that he has the make-up of a workhorse, helping power his team to a College Football Playoff appearance, with well over 100 scrimmage yards in eight straight games until he tore his ACL. That’s a big reason he hasn’t been discussed as extensively this draft season, although based on tape he may be the consensus RB1 on big boards across the NFL thanks to him being a fit for any type of offense. As he logs more reps in practice and can see the picture unfold, I believe he’ll be able to execute any type of run concepts, showing the sharp change-of-direction skills to punish defenses for any lack of discipline in their fits. I like his profile as a third-down back, but what may hurt him during this process and drop him to the middle of day two rather than the start is that he can’t work out at his pro day or for individual teams, to see him go through more complex routes, since the mobility in his joints and springiness is there to create separation as a matchup player.
3. Blake Corum, Michigan
5’8”, 205 pounds; SR
After only 26 rushing attempts as a freshman, Corum carried most of the load for the Wolverines early in 2021 and ran with it, before Hassan Haskins took over late in the season more so, Corum touched the ball 168 times for 1093 yards and 12 touchdowns for the year, Last year he took that to another level as the main guy in that backfield – even though Donovan Edwards had 1200 scrimmage yards himself. He was a Heisman front-runner until suffering a season-ending meniscus injury in his 12th game, up to which he racked up 1543 scrimmage yards and 19 touchdowns on 258 touches (5.9 yards per rush), although he did still receive first-team All-American notice. His numbers were down a little bit – in particular averages – this past year (274 touches for 1362 yards), but he scored a massive 28 touchdowns and repeated as a first-team all-conference selection.
Decision-making, run setups & footwork:
+ Good density in his frame and just a very well-coordinated athlete, who consistently runs low and showcased an impressive combination of vision, feet and body-control early on already
+ Corum has a certain feel for setting up running lanes, by being patient in some regards and altering his pace as needed, as well as lead defenders to the wrong spots with his body-language
+ Shows impressive short-area quickness to turn his body and navigate through traffic with reduced surface area, with multiple subtle changes to his running path, And you regularly see him slide underneath pursuit defenders or blockers working out towards the sideline
+ Possesses great peripheral vision to spot penetration and see when to bubble around sift blocks for example, as edge defenders try to wrong-shoulder the tight-end and stuff like that
+ Pairs that with highly efficient transitions, where he can press creases deeply, drop the hips and then bounce outside, or slides behind blockers towards the edge, after forcing the second level to scrape over the top
+ Can kind of skip behind two blockers and then squeeze through them with a small hurdle, to not trip over their legs
+ When he’s corralled in the backfield, Corum is impressive in a subtle fashion, with the way he fights his way back to the line of scrimmage
+ You love the maturity to accelerate into traffic and maximize what is there to be had rather than looking for escape paths
Open field & dealing with contact:
+ Surprises some defenders on the edge of the box who don’t respect his burst out to the corner, by getting to the sideline and forcing them to adjust to much more conservative angles
+ Doesn’t lose speed as he bends his running path getting to daylight
+ This guy puts some pretty slick moves on tape, where he jump-cuts across the defender’s face after forcing that guy’s weight to be shifted the other way, foot-faking guys in the open field and leaving them with only a piece of his jersey, etc.
+ Typically doesn’t give away his cuts at all with his head and can stare defenders into stopping their feet
+ When he can’t get away from tacklers anymore, Corum at least makes sure to always fall forward for an extra yard or two by turning his body away, and you see him kind of launch himself forward regularly whilst he’s on his way to the turf (after getting tripped up)
+ He has some pretty powerful quads, to make guys bounce off them, and will churn forward over bodies even if he has his back turned to the defense
+ In 2021, he Forced 49 missed tackles on 144 rushing attempts (34% of carries) and finished with 944 yards in 2021, and while the efficiency has gone down a little bit with extended opportunities, he was coming off a torn ACL last season, yet has been able to handle a massive workload (248 and 258 carries respectively
+ Earned the highest PFF grade (96.2) among all running backs in the country in 2022 and still reached a 84.0 mark this past season despite coming back from the injury
Passing game:
+ Shows good feel and understanding as a route-runner and catches the ball well, with soft hands – only dropped one of 27 catchable passes over the last two years
+ Was used on a lot of slant-flat concepts with the single receiver and sems to have no issues securing the grab on rather challenge angles of arrival
+ Once the pass is secured, he snaps his head around and gets North pretty much instantly
+ Doesn’t quite pack the punch his former running mate Hassan Haskins did, but Corum steps up towards blitzers with confidence and a square base
+ Is able to take advantage of his lower center of gravity to get under the chest oncoming rushers and stymie their charge, as well as land some pretty effective chips, to allow his tackles to square up rushers off the edge
+ Does a nice job of working up to his gap and then cleanly releasing through it, to present himself as a check-down option, if nobody comes through
Weaknesses:
– Doesn’t feature any elite physical traits, in terms of instant acceleration or top-end speed, where those shorter legs/strides come into play
– His per-carry average has decreased each of the last three years, down to 4.8 as a senior and so has his rate of 15+ yard runs, with only 13 across 258 attempts in 2023 (5.0%)
– I feel like his creativity in the open field has actually decreased as he’s gone along and it manifested itself in a career-low missed tackle forced rate of just 11.6% as a senior
– His yards per route run has decreased each of his first three years at Michigan, down to just 0.59 yards as a junior, before it slightly went up to a still underwhelming 0.87 this past season – disappointing considering his flashes in that capacity early in his career
Corum presents the profile of a true three-down running back. He showcases the conceptual understanding, vision and footwork to effectively run gap/man or zone schemes, he can sit down on blitzing linebackers and catches the ball well. He lacks that break-away gear to turn good runs into true explosives with consistency, but he’s very efficient in avoiding negative plays and keeping the offense on schedule – and he started looking more dynamic down the stretch last season again. While he did fumble three times this past season, he generally displays solid ball-security fundamentals and had lost the ball just twice on 457 touches through his first three years. He also presents high football character with the way he handles himself on the field, his work ethic and the commitment to his team, considering he returned for his senior campaign to finish the job and help lead Michigan to a national title. He may not have the special tools to ever turn into an All-Pro, but he’s the guy I can most easily see be a contributor in a lead role for a decade – and you may get him in the middle of day two.
4. Marshawn Lloyd, USC
5’9”, 220 pounds; RS JR
A former top-100 overall recruits in the country for South Carolina in 2020, Lloyd tore his ACL as a true freshman and had an underwhelming debut campaign, trying to re-gain confidence in his knee. In 2022, he turned 111 carries and 18 receptions into 749 combined yards and 11 touchdowns. After that, he transferred to USC and took his game to another level. Across 11 games with the Trojans, he ran the ball 116 times for 820 yards (7.1 YPC) and hauled in 13 passes for another 232 yards, while reaching the end-zone nine times.
Decision-making, run setups & footwork:
+ Showcases good patience and ability to lure defenders into creases, so he can work around them effectively
+ Has the vision to get to cutback lanes most college backs wouldn’t even have on the radar
+ Efficiently veers off the backside foot to cut up runs vertically, rather than having to slow his strides and lose time
+ Oily hips to effortlessly make those adjustments to his path and curve away from defenders trying to redirect for him
+ Does really well to slow his feet before hitting creases
+ Excelled on G-lead, recognizing when the guard would wrap around, he could hesitate, give a quick burst to the outside and then slide underneath
+ For a bigger back, his sudden ability to dip inside of blocks and then beat defenders in the back-seven around those, as they leverage themselves incorrectly is something stuck out on multiple occasions
+ The ability to flip the hips and turn his shoulders away from defenders trying to reach out for him after cutting behind a blocker doesn’t allow those guys to impede his progress
Open field & dealing with contact:
+ Features one of the best jump-cuts in the country, which allow him to make tacklers clutch air as they’re trying to chop him down
+ When he hits the hole at full speed, he can run over some linebackers waiting for him there
+ Has a knack for tilting his body away from glancing hits and swiping down the arms of potential tacklers reaching for him
+ Is able to spy corners squeezing in him from the corner of his eye and crossing them up in order to get to the sideline every once in a while
+ His 40.9% missed tackle forced rate ranked fourth among RBs with 100+ carries last season and he averaged just under four yards after contact
+ Displays impressive contact balance and always appears bigger than his size would indicate when he bounces off hits without much delay
+ Does well to pull his knees up out of the trash and not trip over extremities or friend of foe along the way
+ Kicks his heels up high to re-gain balance after getting hit down low
Passing game:
+ Wasn’t utilized a whole lot in the passing game, but it’s not because there’s anything wrong with his hands – only dropping one of 14 catchable targets last season
+ Rarely allows passes to hit his chest and there’s no delay inti becoming a runner with the ball
+ Can stop and swipe by tacklers in the flats, as well as cross up guys in the open field in a way you wouldn’t expect from a big back
+ Sells play-action so well by sort of hiding the ball and still following blockers as if he had it in his hands, in particularly with all the RPOs and alerts in the Trojans offense
+ Shows good peripheral vision to find work and help out in protection if nobody he’s be responsible for rushes
+ Deliver some impactful chips as a wing basically before flaring out into the flats
Weaknesses:
– Not always the most mature or refined decision-maker on gap plays at this point, where he’ll cut back or bounce when he could set up creases on the front-side
– Tends to try making that one extra cut and go for the homerun instead of getting vertical when he has a lane after that first or second move works
– His elbow gets too wide away and off his frame, exposing the ball to swinging arms of defenders – fumbled four times in 2023
– Didn’t show a whole lot as a receiver throughout his college career, with just 19 total catches and a very basic route tree as the early-down back (swings, flats, hooks)
This is my favorite back to watch in this class. Lloyd’s ability to play small in his approach through the line of scrimmage and how big he can play on contact is a rare combination. His ability to see the full picture, coordination to alter stride length, the looseness in his hips to execute challenging transitions and then how he convert speed-to-power in order to run over defenders are all top-tier. Lloyd also displayed those skills at the Senior Bowl, where he was named the National team’s Running back of the Week. You saw his deadly jump-cuts take more victims and what I loved was watching him run more detailed routes, getting linebackers leaning the wrong way and dropping his hips to accelerate out of his breaks, since he wasn’t really allowed to do in USC’s Air Raid-based attack. If that is a sign of things to come and he can become a more mature gap-scheme runner, he can be highly productive on many teams across the NFL. His one major red flag – and what will determine if he’ll be a high-level starter or buried on the depth chart – are the ball-security issues. Drills to work on keeping his elbow tight to his chest should already be planned ahead by his future RB coach.
5. Re’Mahn “Ray” Davis, Kentucky
5’8”, 215 pounds; RS SR
A three-star recruit for Temple in 2019, Davis racked up just over 1100 yards and ten touchdowns (on 208 touches) as a true freshman, but due to injuries he appeared in just seven combined games the following two seasons, transferring to Vanderbilt for the latter one of those. After going over 1200 yards and eight TDs from scrimmage (on 261 touches) in his second season with the Commodores, he transferred to Kentucky for his final year of eligibility. There he put up career-highs in rushing yards (1129), receptions (33), receiving yards (323) and total touchdowns (21), despite “only” 232 total touches. He was named second-team All-SEC for his efforts.
Decision-making, run setups & footwork:
+ Instinctive, natural runner, with advanced vision for a college back
+ Showcases impressive IQ to identify front alignments pre-snap and be able to progress to the safety by setting up run concepts accordingly without having to track the movement of the second level throughout the set-up
+ Doesn’t simply run towards open space, but shows appropriate patience to maximize what the play offers from a set-up perspective, with a slow-to-it blow-through-it approach
+ Understands really well how to get first-level defenders leaning the wrong way and efficiently working around them
+ Utilizes jump-stops very effectively after pressing creases to bounce to the opposite side of combo-blocks before getting back downhill
+ At the same time, he can stutter and turn his upper body the other way for a split-second in order to not allow linebackers to scrape over the top of blocks or fill a gap about to be created with a puller wrapping around
+ Excels at drawing up overhang defenders and safeties running the alley, trying to set the edge, before slicing inside of them
Open field & dealing with contact:
+ Almost odd with the way he’s able to reduce his frame in traffic and find openings for more positive yardage
+ Lowers his pads into linebackers waiting in the hole and frequently bowls them over, which is how basically exactly two thirds of yardage last season (751 of 1151) came after contact
+ Yet if he doesn’t get tripped up momentarily in that position, you see him spring back out of there and keep going
+ Effectively deploys stutters and foot-fakes to create angles for himself in isolated situations with defenders, particularly as he’s trying to win the sideline
+ Can put a move on the deep safety, but will happily just smash into guys, as he’s being chase from behind
+ Consistently drops a shoulder into one half of awaiting tacklers and has that low center of gravity to drive through contact
+ Regularly slides over the top of defenders and is able to extend for an extra yard or two
+ Has a knack for creating explosive plays, with 15.7% of his runs last season going for 10+ yards (31 of 197 carries)
Passing game:
+ Brings reliable hands and typically has a plan once the ball is in his hands
+ Kentucky designed a couple of plays for him as a downfield receiver, such as his touchdown on a streak route off an inside handoff fake vs. Lousville in 2023
+ Frequently is able to throw in a little one-two step of get by defenders out in the flats once he’s secured the catch
+ Effectively hesitates initially and sets ups his blockers in space as part of the screen game
+ Quick to sift across the formation and pick up unblocked blitzers off the opposite slot
+ Typically gets blitzers off the edge to the ground with well-timed cut-blocks
Weaknesses:
– For what should be a true power back, Davis stutters and makes those subtle adjustments in the backfield quite a bit, but it leads to one- and two-yard gains when positive plays would be on the table if he just hit the hole with conviction
– Lacks high-end explosiveness laterally or to get around defenders after coming to a stop momentarily
– Doesn’t wow you with sudden bursts or dynamic moves in the open field
– Sits back too much on blitzers rather than cutting down the distance and taking charge off them early, which leads to him getting overpowered on contact
If USC’s Marshawn Lloyd is the most fun back to watch this year, Ray Davis may have the cleanest tape of the bunch. Understanding his path to where is now, coming up in the forster care system and playing for three different schools, you understand his determination and the effort he runs with. However, being a fifth-year college player also definitely shows up in his advanced understanding for the concepts he’s asked to execute, the defensive looks he’s facing and how to maximize rushing lanes. He may not be an electric open-field player, but because he’s built low to the ground he can efficiently alter his path, he has great feel for how to minimize the area defenders can hit to create yards through contact and he has better burst when he does have an opportunity to turn on the gas. How early he will earn extended opportunities for his future team will be determined by how much he can improve his technique at neutralizing the charge of defenders in pass-pro, but between some of the moments on tape and the Senior Bowl, I believe he offers enough of a receiving baseline to be a valuable contributor, worthy of a top-100 selection.
6. Jaylen Wright, Tennessee
5’11”, 210 pounds; JR
One of the top-1000 national recruits in 2021, Wright increased his role and production all three seasons with the Volunteers. Despite his volume going up, he actually improved his yards per carry in each of those, going from 4.8 to 6.0 and finally 7.4(!) YPC, hitting the 1000 mark as a junior, with 2300 total on the ground. He also caught 22 passes for another 141 yards in 2023, after just six receptions across his first two seasons.
Decision-making, run setups & footwork:
+ Instant explosion once he takes hand-offs (indicated by an 11’2” broad jump – second-farthest in combine history)
+ Sudden with the way he can leverage himself towards one gap and then shift towards the opposite edge of blockers
+ Understands how to stress defenders until the last possible moment before sticking his foot in the ground
+ Patient on duo and G-lead plays, keeping his body square and pressing downhill before bounding outside when he recognizes opportunities
+ Effectively turns off either ankle without losing time as he shifts directions
+ The way he alternates between normal strides, shuffle steps and jump-cuts to time up creases opening up and getting through there stands out
+ Can speed up getting his foot planted into the turf and do so outside his frame (not underneath his shoulders) with those fairly long legs
+ Showcases an impressive ability to open the play-side toe and bounce around traffic/penetration
Open field & dealing with contact:
+ Has legit homerun speed, with a 4.38 in the 40
+ Capable of shrugging off initial wraps as he gets through the line of scrimmage
+ Tells a different story with his shoulders than his feet, in order to make it tough for defenders to square him up
+ Packs some wicked jump-cuts and side-bounds to slice underneath defenders
+ Does a great job after of lowering his pads and reduce his surface area as he slices through one half or the reaching arms of defenders in space
+ Uses his off-arm pretty well to swipe away the reach of pursuing defenders or punch at their sternum and get out to the sideline
+ Continues pulling his feet up and stays upright as he runs into bodies, allowing the cavalry to come in and push him forward
+ Averaged a massive 4.35 yards after contact per rush attempt in 2023 (eighth among qualified running backs, according to PFF)
Passing game:
+ Has some wiggle to him and will throw in subtle head-fakes to separate on those 90-degree breaks, such as on option routes
+ Showcases soft hands and ability to effortlessly catch the ball away from his frame
+ Tennessee made it a priority to put the ball in Wright’s hands when they flexed him out wide and threw tunnel screens to him
+ Has adequate size and ability to transfer power from the ground up to create stopping power as a pass-protector
+ Regularly is able to slide across the formation and initiate contact with the inside shoulder of blitzers, to stone-wall them
+ Showcases active feet as he sorts through the trash and positions himself to pick his guy off games and cross-dogs
+ Keeps his head on a swivel and is looking to help out the line, as rushers spill over towards his gap
Weaknesses:
– Had the benefit of getting to run into soft box counts in that spread-out Tennessee offense, often times being the +1 on five-vs-five up front – 26% of his carries came vs. five-man boxes, only 18% vs. seven+
– Would rather bounce over to a crease between one of his blockers and the next-closest defender instead of putting his foot in the ground and crashing through that guy’s near shoulder for positive yardage rather than getting wrapped up for none
– More of a hip-hipped runner, who presents longer legs to attack in order to get him on the turf, regularly getting chopped down low
– Allows passes to get into his frame regularly, even allowing it to hit his stomach at times
– Not as decisive and generally effective after the catch than when the ball is handed to him – only 4.05 yards per catch last season
Wright presents a tough eval, because the amount of runs he had with positive box counts in favor of the offense is just not realistic projecting him forward to the NFL. Nevertheless, how light he is on his feet, the efficiency at which he changes directions and the sudden acceleration to shoot through lanes definitely pops. His more linear build and playing style don’t profile as someone who will break a ton of tackles, but his yards-after-contact numbers this past season were outstanding. There’ll be learning so that he doesn’t bounce around as much behind the line of scrimmage and he may never turn into a workhorse at the pro level, but if can work on his ball-skills, I think he could present value as an explosive element of a rotation, who’ll earn opportunities for what surprised me as excellent pass-blocking tape. I’d like adding him in the third round as part of my stable.
7. Bucky Irving, Oregon
5’9”, 190 pounds; JR
A four-star recruit in 2021 for Minnesota, Irving filled in nicely for Mohamed Ibrahim as a freshman with 772 yards and four touchdowns on 141 yards as a very different player profile. With the now-Gophers all-time rushing leader retuning, the young man decided to transfer to Oregon, where he handled 156 carries and 31 receptions for 1357 combined yards and eight TDs (6.8 yards per carry). While his averages went down slightly this past year, he made work of the additional 30 carries and 25 receptions, coming just short of 1600 yards and scoring 13 touchdowns from scrimmage. That made him a second-team All-Pac-12 selection.
Decision-making, run setups & footwork:
+ Explosive laterally to bounce one lane over after approaching the line of scrimmage with square shoulders and leading the linebacker that way
+ Outstanding mobility in the hips, being able to drop his weight and shift directions without any excess steps, in order to aggressively press creases
+ Can stick his foot in the ground and slice underneath defenders with contain responsibilities or as he aims at their outside shoulder, making them miss in the hole
+ Showcases the ability to get his hips turned and cut back to the outside after drawing the force defender between the tackles
+ Puts some nasty jukes on linebackers in the hole, luring them in and crossing them up with snappy hips to not give an area to initiate contact with
+ Offers the short-area quickness to make diving tacklers missing and navigate condensed areas
+ Doesn’t shy away from just lowering the shoulder and going through a defender in the hole for positive yardage, instead of trying to dance in the backfield and hoping to make something happen
+ Earned an elite PFF grade in 2022 (91.1) and an 88.2 mark in ‘23
Open field & dealing with contact:
+ With his ability to get low and make sharp transitions, Bucky can cross over pursuit defenders in impressive fashion
+ Utilizes jump-cuts and jump-stops while getting low and minimizing the area for surrounding defenders to get a hand on him
+ Does a great job when he gets past the second level of utilizing blockers down the field and turning around safeties as the last line of defense
+ Forced a missed tackle on 37.1% of his rushing attempts (13th among FBS running backs with 100+ carries)
+ Has a knack for not allowing defenders to get a straight shot at him, slightly adjusting his path after aiming straight at them and then slipping off arms swinging at him
+ Keeps himself alive as a runner, spinning off glancing shots and pulling his legs out of the arms of defenders trying to clutch those
+ As he bangs into the chest of tacklers trying to catch him, Irving consistently falls forward for a couple of extra yards, manifesting itself in an average of 4.16 yards after contact per attempt
Passing game:
+ Outflanks linebackers into the flats and presents an effective YAC threat
+ Can put guys in the blender as he catches a swing route and if left one-on-one with somebody in the flats
+ Ripped off some massive chunks flaring out into the flats and catching check-downs on the run after the defense was pulled deep, as he takes advantage of teammates turning into blockers late
+ Peaks pursuit defenders out of the corner of his eye and is able to cross them up badly a few times after the catch
+ While he was largely part of the pattern or just carried the fake on RPOs, when he was asked to stand in protection, Bucky didn’t shy away from sticking his nose in the fan
+ Has a couple of highly impressive moments of awareness and peripheral vision to still get a piece of a free blitzer, after stepping up the opposite way (and not being responsible)
Weaknesses:
– Needs to pace himself a little bit more at times and allowing run concepts to develop, such as running himself into trouble on inside zone
– Can be a bit of a “tip-toe-y” runner, who gets banged down violently by big hitters
– At 5’9”, 192 pounds, his speed at 4.55 is somewhat limited and the explosiveness numbers at the combine were definitely underwhelming – He was the only back to not quite crack 30 inches on the vert, along with the second-lowest broad jump at 9’7”
– Struggles a bit with passes slightly off his frame and where he has to turn for balls slightly behind him – dropped seven of 92 catchable targets over the last two years
– Doesn’t create leverage and absorb the charge of blitzers effectively at this point, too often getting driven the quarterback in protection, where his size becomes an issue
Bucky Irving is someone you can easily get excited about as a college football fan. He’s super shifty, patiently picking his spots on man-blocking schemes and then being able to make defenders miss in the hole or the open field. He’s also been an effective pass-catcher, although more so based on what he can provide after the catch than before as a route-runner. Unfortunately, you don’t see a lot of backs around the 190-pound mark with his speed/explosiveness features become heavily-utilized part of a backfield rotation. The willingness to contribute as a pass-protector is certainly there, but he’ll need to develop his take-on technique and bulk up a little up. For someone running in the mid-4.5s, Bucky breaks way more big runs than you’d expect, although it’s based more on making someone miss and then having space rather than being able to win races against defenders in the back-seven. I really like his game and think he can be a quality number two in more of a 60-40 split, although his ultimate potential may be limited.
8. Tyrone Tracy, Purdue
5’11”, 205 pounds; RS SR
One of the top-1000 national recruits as a wide receiver back in 2018 for Iowa, Tracy barely saw the field and took a redshirt his first year with the Hawkeyes. The following season, he hauled in 36 passes for 589 yards and scored four touchdowns, but unfortunately only had about half that production over the next two seasons combined. For 2022, he transferred to Purdue and started his transition to running back, turning 17 receptions and 28 rush attempts into a combined 336 yards (but no touchdowns). As a redshirt senior, he turned 113 carries into 716 yards (6.3 yards per) and eight TDs, along with 19 catches for another 132 yards.
Decision-making, run setups & footwork:
+ For someone with less than 150 career carries, Tracy’s very natural with cutting down his stride length and changing up his footwork a little bit as he deals with traffic
+ Offers the quick acceleration to win the corner against undisciplined edge defenders in a hurry
+ Showcases tremendous mobility in his lower half, to drop his hips and make sharp 90-degree transitions, whether he gets vertical on perimeter-oriented concepts or bounces around penetration when aiming vertically
+ Does well to deeply press creases and skip over a gap with an explosive jump-cut as he forces the second level to fill
+ Recognizes when defenses try to box in plays that involve pullers, as they back-door guys at the line of scrimmage and they lose contain, so he can get around the edge
+ Has the loose ankles to navigate around bodies without having to chop his feet or slow down a whole lot
+ Very sudden runners to make that slight adjustments to his path and not allow defenders in the front-seven to box him in
+ Showcases outstanding curvilinear movement to not lose any speed as he bends up runs where he starts horizontally, dips around blockers and splits converging defenders
Open field & dealing with contact:
+ Rarely allows safeties to get a straight shot at him as they step down for him breaking through the second level
+ As someone with extensive kick return work, he may still do his best in the open field, making people miss and shifting gears to maneuver around bodies
+ Deceptive with his body-language and how he’ll use stop-start moves in one-on-one situations in the open field
+ Has the body-control to cut off the wrong foot at times or drop his body to come to a full stop and shake off defenders over-pursuing him
+ Works in highly effective contact-spins to barely lose any time as hits arrive from an angle
+ Capable of slightly redirecting his momentum and pushing forward with his legs sideways in order slide off glancing shots
+ Looks like a sprinter when he can really stride it out and rip off explosive plays
+ Understands the concept of pacing as a route-runner, with the instant burst to create separation once he sticks his foot in the ground
+ Displayed the ability to set up linebackers with different footwork and had some nasty reps during Shrine Bowl practices, throwing in little foot-drags or making guys look silly by cleanly getting out of return routes
Passing game:
+ His wide receiver background definitely shows up when he makes finger-tip catches look incredibly easy
+ Seems to have no issues reaching slightly behind himself and dealing with passes put on his frame with soft hands
+ Showcases good effort and attacks the inside shoulder of blitzers to guide them past the quarterback
+ When he has to take on guys in the A-gap, he already strikes with tight hands, a flat back and good bend in his knees
+ Flashes the ability to attack through the opposite knee and effectively get linebackers on the ground on cut-blocks
+ Was a quality blocker for his quarterback on draw plays and delayed scrambles, locating targets and getting his hands inside their frame
Weaknesses:
– Will need to become a more mature decision-maker when he comes to a stop and chooses to take a wide bounce around traffic or cutting all the way across the grain instead of driving forward for what’s there to be had
– Doesn’t yet utilize his pullers very effectively and turns down opportunities in favor of going for early cutback opportunities
– Lacks great contact balance and doesn’t dig his cleats into the turf to stay balanced in favor of that more light-footed running style, getting wrapped up and driven straight back in the hole at times
– Doesn’t yet seem to fully grasp his role in protection and lacks some sand in the pants to anchor against defenders on the rush
– Needs to show more urgency approaching hard-charging blitzers, while lacking violence in his hands and allowing them to take control of reps
Tracy was one of the most fun players to watch on tape. He may be fairly new to the backfield, but he’s already been a very productive player with impressive moments of finding and using his loose lower body to get to rushing lanes. He showed up bigger than I expected for the combine at 5’11” and 209 pounds for the combine, yet ran a 4.49 in the 40, had a 40-inch vertical (second among all running backs), with a Relative Athletic Score of 9.87 and he looked natural during the on-field workout when it came to footwork and the way he ran routes/caught the ball. There are certainly still things he doesn’t fully understand yet when it comes to setting up things conceptually and how to present value to his team on pass plays when he isn’t part of the pattern, but it’s not due to a lack of effort and he flashes with encouraging moments. This is one of those names I want to put my stamp on because of how quickly he’s shown the ability to learn and apply skills at the running back position after making the transition from wide receiver.
9. Will Shipley, Clemson
5’11”, 205 pounds; JR
The number two running back in the nation for 2021, Shipley immediately took over lead duties for the Tigers as a true freshman, collecting 855 yards and 11 touchdowns on 165 touches. The following season, he improved to 1424 yards and 15 TDs from scrimmage on 248 touches, making him the choice for first-team All-ACC at the running back and all-purpose spots. As a junior, he played two fewer games, but still put up 1071 yards and seven TDs from scrimmage.
Decision-making, run setups & footwork:
+ Features impressive burst to get around the corner on toss plays regularly
+ Practical with how he slows his feet and keeps defenders in place for pullers to get to, before slicing inside of them
+ Does well to keep backside linebackers home as he keeps his shoulders parallel to the line of scrimmage before bouncing to the front-side on duo runs on similar concepts
+ His ability to contort his body combined with how hard he runs allows Shipley to navigate through those tightly-packed areas and move the offense with consistency
+ No-nonsense runner if he has a crease on vertical concepts (duo/inside zone), to just plow forward for positive plays
+ Showcases the ability and mobile hips to shift his path as he takes the handoff, if he sees a voided lane in the run game based on pre-snap alignment, particularly in short-yardage situations
+ Delivers a lot of runs that move the sticks, as 65 of his 378 carries over the last two years went for 10+ yards (17.2%)
+ And he’s been highly efficient at converting in short-yardage and goal-line situations
Open field & dealing with contact:
+ Pairing his ability to get low on jukes and the power in his legs, allows him to cross up defenders one-on-one in space
+ You see Shipley slips off hits from the side and keep on trucking routinely
+ Will squirt out of traffic by spinning off contact
+ Effectively places his hand at the crown of the helmet of would-be tacklers and pulls his knees up in order to not get tripped up by guys in pursuit
+ Will unload his forearm and shove off would-be tacklers sitting back for him
+ Provides great leg-drive in order to stay upright and consistently bleeds out runs to churn out extra yards
+ 60.8% and 58.0% of his rushing yards in 2022 and ’23 respectively came after contact (1199 of 2011)
+ Was a great chain-mover and game closer for Clemson, who was able to grind away defenses
Passing game:
+ Showcases good burst out to the flats in order to out-leverage linebackers
+ Light on his feet to make those 90-degree cuts as a route-runner without having to pound his feet into the ground
+ Excels at widening linebackers as he releases out of the backfield and then presenting a nice target breaking towards the middle
+ Catches the ball reliably when he has to fully extend his arms for it
+ His head quickly flips around to read his blockers in space on delayed and swing screens, turning those into solid gains with consistency
+ Presents the density and effort to become a plus-level pass-protector, with good alertness for the defense is bringing pressure from
+ Rapidly slides across to pick up blitzers off the opposite edge
+ Dishes out some great cut-blocks if guys try to time up the snap and shoot through the A- or B-gap
Weaknesses:
– Not a twitchy mover, who will make guys on the second level look stupid by getting them leveraged the wrong way before navigating around blockers
– Desperately lacks that break-away speed
– A lot of his yardage came on runs hitting out to the perimeter, not having shown the ability to navigate through tight quarters as efficiently, particularly executing more vertically-oriented concepts
– His missed-tackle-forced rate fell off from 23.2 to only 16.2% these past two seasons respectively
– Had four and three fumbles each these past two seasons
Following the Trevor Lawrence era at Clemson, where they were throwing the ball all over the lot, Will Shipley became the driving engine for the Tigers offense these last couple of years. He’s a tough, physical runner with enough juice to win the corner initially and then powers through contact for productive plays. He’s not going to string together moves in succession in the open field to gain the status of a “creator” and he doesn’t have the top gear to really threaten to take it the distance, but he finds openings with regularity and maximizes what he can get even if there’s not a lot. His lack of big-play ability and the fumbling history will probably lead him falling to day three, but if he can clean up the latter of those two things, he can be productive player as part of a committee with three-down viability.
10. Braelon Allen, Wisconsin
6’1”, 235 pounds; JR
Just outside the top-200 overall recruits in 2021 as a linebacker originally, Allen followed the tradition of big-time running backs at Wisconsin and instantly jumped onto the national radar, turning 186 carries into 1268 yards and 12 touchdowns, making him a second-team All-Big Ten selection as a freshman. He repeated those honors each of the following two years, putting up basically identical numbers in 2022 (even though his yards per carry decreased from 6.8 to 5.4), before across 11 games last season he finished just under 1000 yards on the ground (on 181 carries) but caught a career-high 28 passes for another 132 yards, with 12 combined scores.
Decision-making, run setups & footwork:
+ Big back with the long speed to take it the distance
+ Great combination of explosiveness and power, running the ball with great balance and rhythm
+ When he can hit the hole at full speed, Allen will split those creases between bodies on the second and third level in a hurry
+ Tremendous ability to plant and transition from horizontal to vertical movement in one step and accelerating through on zone concepts
+ The way this guy can utilize jump-stops and little skips to allow the picture to develop is outstanding for a big back
+ Does a great job of using little head-fakes and jabs to get peaking D-linemen or linebackers leveraged the wrong way before slicing the opposite way past blockers
+ Understands how to box the defense in on plays designed to hit inside if he sees an opportunity to bounce and then hitting a jump-cut to get around a cheating contain player
+ Displays tremendous peripheral vision to ID some cutback lanes that based on the concept, not many backs would even consider
Open field & dealing with contact:
+ For a young player, Allen is already excellent at setting up safeties and even using teammates who can attach to defenders on the third level to great advantage
+ Covers more ground with those strides than defenders anticipate and is able to beat them to the sideline when they don’t respect it
+ The way he’ll stutter his feet momentarily and how it freeze defenders on the edge allows him to bounce around them, yet when they’re leveraged outside, Allen will aim at the outside shoulder and slide underneath
+ While Allen may not put dynamic moves on safety in one-on-one situations necessarily, the way he approaches them and doesn’t commit early negates their ability to angle well against him and them not being able to run him down unless they flip around to chase from behind
+ Really excels at converting in short-yardage situations, with a knack for squirting through creases
+ His ability to drop the pads around the line of scrimmage and almost be parallel to the ground in order to break through wraps really stands out
+ Features an excellent spin move to bounce off contact with and re-gains his balance without issues it seems like
+ Uses his off-arm very well to push off the chest of defenders in pursuit and not allow them catch back up typically
+ Gained 54% of his rushing yards after contact (671 of 1242), never stopping his feet and pulling them out of the grasp of tacklers with regularity
Passing game:
+ Caught a career-high 28 passes as a junior
+ Shows no issues plucking the ball away from his frame and has some impressive one-handed snatches nearly outside his range on tape (only one drop in 2023)
+ Has a solid base with his shoulders aligned with his hips in order to absorb force as blitzers charge into him, while adding in some perfect cut-blocks, where he actually flips guys
+ Consistently takes away the shortest path to the passer and sitting down in the chair bracing for contact
+ Even when he’s got a mugged up in the opposite A-gap, Allen doesn’t panic and make himself vulnerable to getting his hands swiped away
+ Showcases active eyes and good patience as a pass-protector without a direct assignment
Weaknesses:
– The re-acceleration even if he does avoid getting wrapped up around the line of scrimmage simply isn’t quite there, before the space around him closes again
– Lacks some suddenness to work around bodies in space in an efficient manner without slowing his feet a whole lot
– Only 31 of his 411 carries over the last two years went for 15+ yards (7.5%)
– Has rarely been deployed in pass-protection or as anything but a checkdown option until this past season at least
– Fumbled four times in 2023, needing to do a better job of bracing the ball in traffic and as he’s going to the turf
Probably nobody since his days in high school, through college and also heading into the pros wants to get into the way of this 245-pound battering ram with a head of steam. Allen packs a top-level combination of size and long speed, but also has pretty sweet feet to get to daylight considering that linear skill-set. With that being said, it takes him a while to change gears when he has to stop and start, plus then he doesn’t veer around bodies in the open field in a way that maximizes his speed. With how little he was deployed in defined dropback situations, it’s tough to see Allen become more than an early-down thumper, but he can set the tone for an inside zone and gap-scheme offense along with having that cumulative effect on the guys across from him later on in games. If paired with a more dynamic option who takes on the majority of the passing work, I could see a path for Allen hitting 1000 rushing yards and double-digit touchdowns for a season at one point of his career, although it may not last forever. The great thing here? – He won’t even turn 21 years old until the conclusion of his rookie season.
Just missed the cut:
Dillon Johnson, Washington
6’0”, 215 pounds; SR
One of the top-500 overall recruits for Mississippi State in 2020, Johnson turned 229 carries into 1198 yards and 149 catches into another 864 yards, combining for 12 touchdowns through three years with the Rebels. For his senior year, he decided to join Washington’s explosive aerial attack and helped them add some balance to the mix. He was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection thanks to nearly 1400 yards and 16 touchdowns from scrimmage (5.1 yards per carry).
Decision-making, run setups & footwork:
+ Decisive zone-runner, who really excels at converting laterally to horizontally
+ He really strings out concepts and forces contain defenders to leverage themselves to the outside before getting downhill
+ Understands how to hesitate a little bit with plays developing without stuttering his feet
+ Yet on vertical schemes, he can come to a full stop momentarily as a slanting D-linemen goes past or there’s just some traffic, before quickly getting back downhill
+ Disciplined with sticking to the play-design and confident in his ability to get through tight creases
+ Yet with the way he uses his off-arm and how efficient he is with his footwork to bend back inside zone, he has enough juice to win the corner if teams don’t honor that part
+ The way he executes toss plays, he really stresses the outside edge of blockers and then slices underneath them, Yet he can also throw in a little dip inside or order to be able to bounce around if someone wants to slip blocks
+ Has those strong ankles to bend around traffic or slice underneath a blocker without actually having to decelerate and you see a lot of slight altering the direction Johnson is headed towards without really making a cut
+ Accelerates through the hole to convert in short-yardage and goal-line situations
Open field & dealing with contact:
+ Carries the ball high and tight, switching hands when he changes direction
+ Is able to get by defenders with foot-fakes and some dead-leg moves, along with packing a nasty straight-arm right at the facemask of guys in pursuit
+ Frequently looks like he’s stumbling a little bit, but somehow finds a way to stay on his feet as he takes shots from the side or gets bumped by a blocker being shoved into him
+ Doesn’t offer tacklers a whole lot of surface area to attack and your tacklers better wrap and finish against this guy, because he won’t just give up and go down at any point
+ Looks like a hot knife going through butter at times, when he can cut through the reach of defenders spilling over into the gap and drag people just trying to catch him
+ Routinely spins off contact and falls or launches himself forward to maximize yards after contact
+ While the raw speed may not blow you away, when Johnson has a lane, he’s able to get through it to third level way more regularly than you’d think
+ Not only carries the ball high and tight, but it appears glued to his body it appears, with how little it moves (only two fumbles across 373 touches since 2022)
Passing game:
+ Frequently was flared out into the flats – either off check-releases or play-action – and showed a good understanding for when to slow himself in order to maintain space to the sideline or when to turn up the field if the opportunity presents itself
+ Does a good job of pushing at linebackers and snapping off hooks to create a window or realizing when he can drift upfield into voided space in order to maximize yardage
+ Frames passes well and you don’t really ever see the ball move when it touches his hands – only dropped one of 52 catchable targets over the past two seasons
+ Makes some impressive full-extension catches on swings and over routine routes
+ While consistently is still lacking to some degree as a pass-protector, Dillon flashes the ability to drop his hips and punch with force to stand up blitzing linebackers
+ Happily launches himself into defenders waiting for him on run plays after the ball was pulled out of his stomach on RPOs/play-action – Yet understands when to speed up that mesh-point in order to slide in front of blitzers
Weaknesses:
– Lacks the homerun speed to finish explosive runs in the end-zone with consistency (only 6.5% of his carries over the past two seasons went for 15+ yards)
– Doesn’t throw out many dynamic moves in the open field – both his yards after contact (3.14) and missed tackles forced rates (19.3%) fell below the 40th percentile for FBS running backs over the last two years
– Tends to dip his head initiating contact with blitzers in pass-pro and savvy rushers will be able to get by him because of that
– There’s a certain delay after catching the ball, for Johnson to get up the field – averaged just 0.88 yards per route run in 2023
Johnson has the makings of your favorite running back’s favorite running back. He’s a non-nonsense rusher, who uses subtle elements to set up concepts optimally and then maximizes yardage with the way he approaches contact. He’s a below-average athlete for NFL standards (including just a 4.68 in the 40) and isn’t going to wow you by crossing up defenders in the open field or defeating pursuit angles, but he’s a machine at stringing together positive plays and consistently gains yards through contact, which his advanced numbers don’t quite represent because they’re not heavily affected by one or two plays where he just gets touched on the way by of an explosive run. What’ll get him onto the field in early and keep them there for a while are his incredibly reliant hands and ball-security, with just three combined drops and fumbles across nearly 400 touches these past two seasons combined. Johnson also showed incredible toughness and commitment to his team when he played in the national title game on a bummed ankle, which looked like he may miss extended time with when he was helped off the field in a lot of pain with two weeks earlier.
Audric Estime, Notre Dame
6’0”, 220 pounds; JR
A four-star recruit of 2021, Estime only carried the ball seven times for 60 yards as a true freshman. In year two, he turned 165 touches into 1055 yards and 12 TDs. Yet this past season was when he was named second-team All-American for turning 210 carries and 17 more catches into a combined 1483 yards and 18 touchdowns.
Decision-making, run setups & footwork:
+ Urgently approaches the line of scrimmage and consistently produces positive yardage
+ When he gets those pads squared downhill, defenders do not want to get in his way
+ Can make those subtle adjustments to tightly work around an engaged blocker pretty well for a big back
+ Does well to press that crease between the double-teams on duo and lure force-defenders inside, in order to open up bounce opportunities for himself
+ You see some linebackers run themselves out of the lane, because Estime stresses the opposite shoulder or pushes into the back of a blocker, before slicing the other way
+ Shows good flexibility to step around bodies as some defender attacks across the face of one of his blockers, without really getting off track
+ Utilizes pulling linemen leading the way well, where he often times will guide them with his off-arm and stay tight behind them, rather than just taking the immediate open space
+ For a big back, Estime has good feet to navigate around and lifts his feet to step out of trash
Open field & dealing with contact:
+ Shows the balance to slide or spin off tacklers with regularity
+ Does well to pull his feet out of trash and not get tripped up with defenders around his legs and consistently runs his feet for YAC and dragged-on defenders ultimately let go at times
+ You see a lot of times in short-yardage situations, where Estime slides over the top of bodies and stretches forward for the first down
+ Nearly unstoppable when he smells the end-zone
+ Carries the ball high and tight, whilst switching hands when he has space to operate – Didn’t fumble once this past season across 227 touches, after putting the ball on the ground three times in 2022
+ Surprises with his pull-away speed, to where you frequently see defenders put their heads down and try to reach that extra gear after they realize their initial angle wasn’t good enough
+ Uses his off-arm pretty well to swipe down the reach of defenders trying to hold him up as he blows by them
+ Estime averaged 4.27 yards after contact last season (13th among FBS running backs with 100+ carries) and was tied for the fifth-most carries of 15+ yards
Passing game:
+ Has respectable receiving chops and was able to deal with passes put on him right as he turns back to the quarterback on little checkdowns
+ Frequently will target and drop the pads emphatically after turning up the field, powering ahead for a couple of extra yards instead of trying to dance and make that guy miss (playing to his strengths)
+ Closes space on blitzers and lifts from below to stand them up and take charge off them
+ If he times up his strike a little better, he could become a very effective pass-protector
+ Patient with sliding in front of not lunging against guys rushing from the slot or looping around the edge
+ Received the highest grade for an FBS running back who declared for the 2024 NFL Draft (94.2) by Pro Football Focus
Weaknesses:
– If he can’t build up momentum, there’s nothing really special about Estime in terms of being able to create or bounce off people
– Lacks the twitch in condensed space or ability to change up his footwork on the fly to manipulate defenders and how he sets up plays
– Not nearly as comfortable making decisions with blockers out in space on toss or screen plays, too often hesitating and getting chopped down for limited yardage
– Doesn’t offer much creativity as a ball-carrier when he gets through the line of scrimmage or to the open field either, while lacking that top-end gear to stride away from the defense
– Tends to overextend in pass-pro and savvy blitzing linebackers can make him whiff for it
I hate putting Estime down here now as people at large are souring on him after how poor he tested at the combine. He ran the slowest 40 time among all RBs there (4.71), despite top-five marks in both the jumps – reinforcing long speed concerns – and I thought he also had a rough field workout, where his feet hit the bags a couple of times. I was already significantly below consensus before that, because while I think he’s better than A.J. Dillon was coming out of Boston College, I get a lot of the same vibes. There’s more nuance to Estime when it comes to adjustments to his footwork in order to set up and get through creases, but I still look at both as very much linear athletes who impress with size and speed for it – and now the Notre Dame standout timed extremely poor. If he can work on not overextending as a pass-protector, he can be a useful player in that capacity as well as an early-down and short-yardage runner. I just don’t see him ever becoming someone in a featured capacity.
Jawhar Jordan, Louisville
5’9”, 190 pounds; RS SR
One of the top-1000 overall recruits in 2018, Jordan was mostly a utility player through his first three years with the Cardinals, turning 66 touches into 416 yards and one touchdown. Over the latter two seasons, he was a highly productive starter, carrying the ball 181 times for 1128 yards and catching 21 passes for 246 more yards, combining for 14 TDs. That earned him first-team All-ACC honors.
Decision-making, run setups & footwork:
+ Patient but efficient decision-maker behind the line of scrimmage
+ Slicing type of running style, where you don’t see those slight change of directions until the very moment he sticks his foot in the ground
+ Comfortable deeply pressing creases, with the ability to stop his feet and slip to the opposite side of blockers at the last moment
+ Quick to ID cutback lanes and consistently turns his shoulders away from unblocked defenders on that backside, as he tightly navigates past the last blocker on the line
+ Can get super skinny through the hole and slip through converging defenders as the reach out for him
+ Recognizes bounce opportunities but makes sure to keep linebackers from scraping over the top, allowing his linemen to secure the block working around the edge
+ Showcases the mobility in the hips and ankles to react to penetration and get the toe pointed outside in order to work around that without having to come to a full stop
+ You legitimately see him progress mentally to the safety in two-high looks and slightly nod outside to force him to stay on the alley before shooting through up the middle
Open field & dealing with contact:
+ Gets past defenders regularly without having to really put a move on them, as he aims at them, slightly widens and kicks it into another gear
+ Really accelerates his pads into contact around the line of scrimmage and you see would-be-tackler bounce off him quite regularly
+ Has a real knack for those micro-movements to slip through crowded areas in short-yardage situations
+ Consistently turns his shoulders away from near-by defenders and minimizes the surface area for them to hit
+ Uses his off-arm exceptionally well to stabilizes himself and/or swipe down the reach of defenders trying to hold him up
+ Will go airborne and fully clear defenders on hurdles at times
+ Even though the size would suggest Jordan to not be able to break or work through tackles, he does frequently pull his knees up through wraps or launches himself forward, leading to an average of 3.28 yards after contact during his three years with the Cardinal
+ And he frequently was able to hit those quick bursts to move the chains for Louisville, turning 16% of his carries into 10+ yards (54 of 337)
Passing game:
+ While he does allow the ball to get into his body at times, he doesn’t drop those targets – only two on 42 career catchable targets
+ And you see the body-control and ability to catch the ball with his hands when it arrives slightly behind him or he has to reach over his head
+ Frequently is able to give a defender closing out into the flats on him a little shimmy and make them miss on quick dump-offs
+ Uses his linemen exceptionally well in the screen game to sort of hide behind and use them as shields for himself
+ Does a nice job of punching blitzers with a square chest and taking charge off them, especially considering his lack of mass
+ Pretty effective cut-blockers, attacking through the defender’s inside knee, particularly off play-action
Weaknesses:
– Underwhelming size and clocked speed for it, showing up at the combine 193 pounds and only running a 4.56 – especially in comparison to his Louisville backfield partner in Isaac Guerendo
– Not a “powerhorse” who will drive forward through defensive linemen standing at the line of scrimmage or move the pile
– You rarely see him burn angles out to the sideline
– There was the occasional wheel route, but otherwise it was all swings and flats for Jordan in the pass game
This guy presents a similar story to Oregon’s Bucky Irving, where you really like the tape and his “on-field speed” is actually less apparent, but his size/speed profile is underwhelming yet again based on almost identical numbers. Jordan isn’t going to run through linebackers or beat safeties to the sideline a whole lot at the NFL level. Yet, while his teammate Isaac Guerendo is basically on the opposite end of the scale when it comes to measurables and could be a productive player in a wide zone-based system, I believe Jordan can excel in any type of rushing offense. So while he may not present an athletic trump-card, his ability to set up lanes for himself by stretching the defense and making one hard cut or affect the second level in order to maximize his pullers is excellent. What encourages me about Jordan’s projection to the next level is some of the quality pass-protection he’s put on tape and how dependable he’s been catching the ball to complete a pretty complete skill-set to fit a variety of schemes. He’s probably going to be somewhere in the middle of day three, while I think with how pro-ready he is, I’d be comfortable taking Jordan early on Saturday.
The next names up:
Isaiah Davis (South Dakota State), Dylan Laube (New Hampshire), Cody Schrader (Missouri), Daijun Edwards (Georgia), Isaac Guerendo (Louisville), Kimani Vidal (Troy), Rasheen Ali (Marshall), Carson Steele (UCLA), George Holani (Boise State) & Blake Watson (Memphis)
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