We’re three quarters through the 2025 NFL season and it’s time for one more look at all 32 teams. As always, please bear in mind that these are power *rankings* rather than standings. So you may see one team be listed above another with a better record or even one they’ve already lost to head-to-head at some point – the objective is to weigh them against the rest of the league at large, and how many opponents I’d favor them over. Especially, as playoff seedings are starting to materialize, we’re somewhat looking ahead at who can go the distance, even though this is more meant to be a snapshot of this moment.
I took injuries into account and weighed current form more heavily, while compared to earlier in the season, we have a pretty good picture of what teams are in all three facets of the game. Although you’ll find a variety of statistics and advanced metrics to support my arguments, they’re all primarily grounded in having watched every single matchup up to this opponent, either on the broadcast, the All-22, or both.
Let’s get to the full rankings:
1. Los Angeles Rams (10-3) 
When I ranked the Rams as the number two team in the NFL back after the first month of the season, there was outrage, especially for putting them ahead of the Eagles, who they had previously lost against on a potential game-winning field goal being blocked. Right now, even though there are two AFC contenders that have an extra win on their resume, I believe they pretty clearly belong at the top of the list. Even if their week 13 loss to the Panthers served as a reminder that anyone can be beaten if they lose the turnover battle, nobody has really been able to stop their offense since they traveled to London prior to their week eight bye, when they started to diversify their personnel groupings. They’re in a league of their own when you look at EPA per play (0.226) and success rate (55.8%) since that point, while their run game has continued to ascend. Meanwhile, their defensive line has the ability to take over games, as one of only two teams with four players inside the top-50 in pressures, and while their offense is basically impossible to defend in goal-line situations, only the Broncos have kept opponents out of the end zone once they’ve reached the red area at a higher rate (42.5% TD rate) than this group. It’s the Rams and their division rivals in a tier of their own currently when it comes to overall DVOA, Matt Stafford is your MVP front-runner, and they’re understandably the betting favorites for the Super Bowl.
2. Seattle Seahawks (10-3) 
For the Seahawks, even though the offensive side of the ball has been the story based on how we viewed this team coming into the year, we have to start with this devastating defense. They’re the other unit I mentioned with four names inside the top-50 for defensive pressures, and they actually have six guys with 30+ (the cut-off for the top-50 being 36). They can send waves at quarterbacks, which is paired with various looks up front that are beautifully married to what they do on the back-end, and then all of the guys they put out there, just fly around the field. Second-round pick Nick Emmanwori becoming Mike Macdonald’s new version of Kyle Hamilton as a Swiss Army knife, has been huge in becoming number one in schedule-adjusted DVOA. Now, offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak’s vision for Sam Darnold quarterbacking this heavy personnel, hyper-aggressive play-action attack, is what has me believing in them being the biggest threat to their NFC West foes – as we saw with a 61-yard field goal miss being the difference in their initial matchup in L.A., when Sam had by far his worst showing of the season. As they’ve at least become an average rushing team to complement the way they want to operate, with Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s historic year being the driving force behind the number one offense in net yards per dropback (8.2 yards average), they can beat anyone as long as they don’t give the ball away excessively.
3. Green Bay Packers (9-3-1) 
Even after their 2-1-1 start heading into their bye week, I had pretty high hopes for the Packers, and they’ve actually moved up by a couple of spots in my rankings since then. With the valleys and peaks of their quarterback and offense altogether, I got a bit more concerned for a while, but now they’ve ripped off wins by 7+ points against all three of their divisional opponents these past three weeks, with Jordan Love performing at the highest level we’ve seen from him yet. Sure, there’s a pass or two every week that has you scratching your head because he tried to force a deep ball into double-coverage or a throw into a super tight window, but the down-to-down consistency, even with his tendencies of fading away unnecessarily, has been excellent. Love ranks number one in EPA per dropback (0.303), as Christian Watson has established himself as a vertical threat again, and you felt the gravity of Jayden Reed as more of their designed touch option, just coming back off injured reserve. They’re the only team to convert better than half of their third-down attempts and they’re second in red zone touchdown percentage (68.1%). Meanwhile, the Packers D is one of the most under-discussed units in the league. While they could still use better contributions from guys up front along with Micah Parsons, who ranks third in total QB pressures individually (74), they haven’t been as reliant on takeaways as last year. Recently losing Devonte Wyatt for the rest of the season is a bummer, but they’re even more cohesive in the way they command space in coverage and the situational awareness they show in year two under DC Jeff Hafley, which is how they rank seventh in dropback success rate surrendered (43.9%).
4. Denver Broncos (11-2) 
While we can have a discussion about Green Bay getting the nod, I do believe there’s a defined drop-off from the top of the NFC to the pair of teams atop the AFC, even if they have that extra win in their pockets. I don’t quite look at either one of them as being as complementary as their counterparts. Having said that, they deserve to be up here by routinely taking care of who’s been put in front of them. The Broncos embody that idea more than anyone in the league. Now winners of ten straight, they’ve had a couple of dominant showings, they’ve grinded out some low-scoring affairs, they’ve rallied in the fourth quarter with Bo Nix suddenly flipping the script when needed, they’ve had some key plays on special teams, and they’ve fended off their opponents when they did have chances. Currently, their defense is right on pace for the all-time record for sacks in a season (72), Vance Joseph is a mad scientist with how he ties the front- and back-end together (as I broke down in my most recent video), and they just got back reigning DPOY Pat Surtain at corner. They rank number one in third-down (30.9%) and red zone TD percentage (40.0%). The offense remains kind of a rollercoaster, which is why I made the distinction to the two top-ranked teams. Denver’s run game has been more feast-or-famine since J.K. Dobbins got hurt, and while that can bring an element of unpredictability, you don’t know which pass-catcher to rely upon on a weekly basis. Nonetheless, they’ve been able to put points on the board when needed most, as Bo has been credited with an NFL-best six game-winning drives, and no team has surrendered sacks at a lower rate (3.5%).
5. New England Patriots (11-2) 
The story for the Pats is quite different. I actually believe their quarterback Drake Maye has been the engine that has powered this team to a shocking ten-game win streak of their own. While we can argue that Matthew Stafford has played the position at the highest level this season and Josh Allen remains the biggest force of nature in the league, I would throw in that nobody has created more with less than this second-year starter. Even with the much-maligned last-place schedule they’ve faced, you can’t deny the ability to mitigate negative plays behind a below-average O-line, and how he’s pushed the ball vertically for big plays (140.0 passer rating on throws of 20+ air yards). That’s where the fact that this is a team-oriented ranking comes into play, however, as they’re largely relying on role players around the QB in a well-coached offense under Josh McDaniels, while ranking 30th in rushing success rate (34.4%). Defensively, it’s kind of a similar story, where they’ve relied on a bunch of rookies and lower-tier free agents to fill in spots, especially with their one big-ticket item Milton Williams on injured reserve, but they’re so multiple in the fronts they present, how they change the picture on quarterbacks and then they just enforce their will on opponents with the way they’re laying the wood. They’ve fallen off a little bit in that regard, but they’re still allowing just under 90 rushing yards per game, they rarely miss tackles, and then they’re a nightmare for protections with all the movement thrown at them post-snap. It’s not a perfect metric, but ranking 14th in team DVOA is at least a point of concern going forward.
6. Buffalo Bills (9-4) 
When the Bengals were setting up 1st & 10 from the Buffalo 33-yard line with five-and-a-half minutes left in the fourth quarter this past Sunday, it certainly didn’t feel like this is where the Bills would end up finding themselves. Christian Benford snatching a pick-six after getting to Joe Burrow on a corner blitz earlier and then getting another interception off a batted pass completely turned the tables for a defense that has largely struggled this season. Against the run in particular, opponents have been able to routinely take advantage of their unwillingness to alter personnel and some of the fits opponents have pushed them into, as they rank 31st in rush EPA (0.045), and I even made a video specifically on that topic. Yet, if they can simply get one or two of these takeaways per week, Superman can carry the day for them, including in a snowstorm. What we’re seeing from Buffalo’s offense right now is their best version of themselves. Rookie tight-end Jackson Hawes, who functions almost like an extra tackle on run plays, has somewhat replaced their six-offensive linemen sets, yet he can sneak out on play-action a couple of times a game, once they’ve hammered away with James Cook (although he needs to protect the ball better). And then Josh Allen can put on the cape when needed, where he provides deadly throws out of structure and scrambles, including when they do spread opponents out more. They’re now back up to the top-three in success rate (48.3%) and EPA per play (0.141) offensively.
7. Houston Texans (8-5) 
Is there a more fun unit to watch right now than this Texans defense? I already extensively talked about the tandem of Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter off either edge and how they play off each other recently, but the way they swarm to the football and the physicality even their defensive backs bring to the table, gives them an attitude that really gets you excited. You could tell Jalen Pitre de-cleating Chiefs receivers earlier in the game got into the heads of those guys as they thought about extending for the ball this past Sunday night. That duo up front being top-six in all pass-rush-relevant metrics each, paired with the way they challenge opponents during their routes, and then the range of someone like Calen Bullock from the deep post makes them a nightmare for any quarterback. They’re at the bottom of the league in blitz and disguise rate, yet they’re allowing an NFL-low 16 points per game. Offensively, it’s been more of a struggle at times, trying to get the run game cracked up and C.J. Stroud continuing to look uncomfortable behind leaky protections, which also got him knocked out for three-and-a-half games. They still rank 29th in rushing success rate (34.5%), but they’ve at least become a little more effective in short-yardage situations, and some of these young receivers around Nico Collins have started to step up. Understanding they can play through their defense, they’ve really limited turnovers, with just one total over the past month, and even when they stagnated at Kansas City, Stroud was able to deliver a handful of plays out of structure. They’re now the number one in the HRF.com statistic, beginning their drives 4.6 yards further ahead than their opponents on average.
8. Detroit Lions (8-5) 
The 2025 season was kind of hanging in the balance this past Thursday Night against the surging Cowboys, after just getting swept by the Packers, yet they were able to access a gear on offense that had kind of been missing in previous weeks. They’ve fallen to dead-average (17th) in rushing success rate for the year (41.5%), but Jahmyr Gibbs is so explosive that he can rip off massive chunks whenever he is given room to operate, which Detroit has utilized more as a receiver as well. We’ve felt the presence of Jameson Williams as their big-play threat through the air more since Dan Campbell has taken over play-calling duties, and they just had a vintage moment to seal this past win, when they called up a heavy play-action concept against Dallas, selling out for the run. For the year, they’re number one in yards per play (6.2). Detroit’s defense surrendering 89 total points over these last three weeks is more alarming, but generally, I’ve been pretty impressed with what Kelvin Sheppard has done as a first-year coordinator. Adjusting for schedule, they rank sixth in defensive DVOA. Once again, injuries have really taken a toll on this unit, especially in the secondary, which will only get worse with Brian Branch now headed for IR with a torn Achilles. So, they’re hoping for better health once we get to this next calendar year, they’re only allowing 3.9 yards per rush, and they do have the league’s leader in pressures Aidan Hutchinson (80). Without some of these contributors on the back-end, they’ll need to adjust their man-heavy tendencies going forward, however.
9. San Francisco 49ers (9-4) 
First and foremost, it‘s pretty incredible how we got here, when we could easily be sitting here with the Niners record flipped and talk about the myriad of injuries they‘ve suffered. To be without clearly their two most integral defenders in Nick Bosa and Fred Warner, yet somehow have all these guys stepping up, looking this well-prepared and energetic, is a major credit to Robert Saleh. They’re dead-last in sacks (16) and you can move the ball on them, but they’re allowing points on the eighth-lowest percentage of drives against (36.2%). At the same time, we also have to commend Kyle Shanahan‘s patience with the run game whilst navigating through Brock Purdy being either hurt or erratic, and fully tapping into Christian McCaffrey‘s dual-threat, being well on pace for becoming the first NFL player with 1000 yards rushing and receiving each in multiple seasons. Overall, San Francisco is now up to fifth in offensive success rate (48.1%) despite all of their receiving options being in and out of the lineup. As they’ve transitioned to being more of a traditional dropback team, how they utilize all five eligibles in the pattern to space out concepts and how they weaponize motions with real purpose in that area, has really helped them navigate being limited personnel-wise and overcome games with multiple turnovers. What’ll be interesting is if those institutional advantages they have can help them overcome some slight talent deficiencies compared to the NFL playoff field, although they may be more equipped than others when they get to face one of their divisional opponents for a third team.
10. Chicago Bears (9-4) 
On one hand, a team that just sat there as the NFC’s number one seed until coming up just short on fourth-and-one at Lambeau Field against their hated rivals may seem to deserve an even higher ranking, but at the same time, cracking the top definitely feels like an accomplishment for this group. More than anything, head coach Ben Johnson has truly changed the culture in Chicago, but you do see his fingerprints all over the offense. There are so many interesting little elements to their run game of showing the threat of misdirection or giving pause to defenders on the second level, but at the heart of it – as Marshawn Lynch would say – they’re going to “run through a motherf*cker’s face”. Just watch back seventh-round rookie Kyle Monangai meeting Packers linebacker Quay Walker in the hole this past Sunday. They now rank second to only the Rams in rushing success rate (47.0%). As it’s to be expected with so many young targets and Caleb Williams just learning the offense, their pass game isn’t nearly as clean and efficient, but they can hit big plays off play-action, and their young QB can has become an elite sack escape artist, who can find completions or valuable yardage as a scrambler deep into the play-clock. We’ll see if they can carry this through the rest of the season, but the defense has certainly been more takeaway-dependent, as they lead the league with 27 total. They simply can’t provide pressure (with a bottom-six rate currently), and only the Bengals have allowed more plays of 20+ yards (58), but they should at least continue to get back contributors in the back-seven.
11. Jacksonville Jaguars (9-4) 
Ironically enough, this is exactly where I put the Jags following their 3-1 start, as I liked plenty of elements of what got them there, but also had questions about the long-term viability of how they were operating. A lot of those things still feel similarly, as they followed that up by beating the Chiefs before having a lot of their weaknesses exposed by the Rams in a beatdown across the pond, before collapsing in a Davis Mills-led Texans comeback soon after. Yet, they went on to overwhelm a beat-up Chargers team and just took back control of the AFC South with their win over the Colts, in which we also saw Daniel Jones tear his Achilles. Jacksonville’s run game has been really up-and-down, and clever play-designers can find ways to take advantage of their defensive tendencies, but there’s something on both sides of the ball that makes me feel a lot better about where they stand. After Brian Thomas Jr. seemed to shy away from extending for the ball in traffic early in the year, Trevor Lawrence is now attacking the middle of the field much more frequently with the trade for Jakobi Meyers and Brenton Strange returning from injury. And their defense now feels so much more compact in how they squeeze down passing windows in zone coverage, rather than leaving their DBs on islands, while Devin Lloyd has been a magnet for the field (five interceptions in 11 games), along with he and Foye Oluokun coming downhill against the run. Only the Bears have taken the ball away more often (23).
12. Los Angeles Chargers (9-4) 
Based on the state of their offense line at this point and how they’ve felt completely outmatched in three of their four losses – to the Commanders(!), Colts and Jaguars – it’s almost unfathomable how they sit here with nine wins. After their 3-0 start, I made a video about how Justin Herbert had entered the “Giant Robot Fighting arena”, which now rings as true as ever, since you’re not even going to need a full hand to count the quarterbacks on the planet who could’ve even allowed them to be competitive this past Monday night, much less win the game. According to Pro Football Focus, Justin Fields is the only quarterback with 200+ dropbacks who’s been pressured at a higher rate than Herbert (42.5%), and those Eagles defenders were in his lap before he could even get to the top of his drops for the majority of that matchup. So I don’t really know how much longer he can hang in there, already with broken fingers, since the Bolts also only rank 25th in rushing success rate (38.9%), but his play extension skills and throws under heat have just been bonkers. Somehow they’re converting third downs at the third-highest rate in the league (47.1%). That’s also where they coincidentally rank defensively in that area (34.4%), as that group just forced five turnovers and gave the ball back to their quarterback enough times. Jesse Minter once again is putting one of the most well-prepared units out there on the field, when you look at how they digest route combinations and put themselves in positions to make plays on the ball. We’ve seen them get pushed around at times in the run game, but they’re willing to make the trade-off of living in soft box counts for not allowing explosives through the air (27 – second-fewest in the league).
13. Philadelphia Eagles (8-5) 
Well, well, well. Eagles fans wanted to EVISCERATE me when I dared to put the Eagles below the Rams (at number three) in my power rankings following week four, shortly after they won the head-to-head on a walk-off game-winning field goal being blocked. At the time, I thought there were some underlying issues with the offense especially that could come back to bite them, and they’ve now lost three straight. Something similar occurred when I placed Jalen Hurts 16th in my QB rankings as part of the “established veterans” tier. I was wrong with that one – he should’ve been even lower. I know this past Monday Night affair was an outlier, but if the main selling points for Hurts are his turnover avoidance and what he provides as a scrambler, as those are now fading away, what is he really offering at this moment? Sure, he can lay those go balls out in front, and we might be telling a slightly different story if A.J. Brown hauls in one of them that were dropped into the bucket, but this entire offense feels broken. Jalen refused to attempt these tight-window throws against zone coverage previously, their pass concepts are pretty elementary, and while we at least saw some flashes of 2024 Saquon against the Chargers, he still ranks 36th among 47 qualified rushers in expected yards per carry (3.8), according to Next Gen Stats. Vic Fangio and company just nearly killed Justin Herbert with an absurd rate of early pressures, and through having more options of what they can do with that fifth DB on the field, that’s felt like less of a liability through the air. They’re still right on the edge of the top ten in success rate, DVOA and EPA per play overall, but recent trends of being out-leveraged on extra gaps created in the run game are concerning.
14. Dallas Cowboys (6-6-1) 
It only feels right that the Cowboys rank right behind their NFC East rivals, who seemed like they had the division locked up already a month ago. The big reason that there’s at least a chance that this could still flip is their head-to-head win in Dallas two weeks ago. Their offense has been lighting up the scoreboard pretty much all season. Only the Colts have scored on a higher percentage of their drives (48.6%), with a supercomputer at quarterback, George Pickens outperforming Ceedee Lamb as the team’s top receiver, who gives you a little more outside the numbers, a re-invigorated run game under OC Klayton Adams, and a booming kicker, who makes you a threat to put three points on the board as soon as you cross midfield. With increased rates of play-action and motion at the snap, they’re a much tougher unit to prepare for. However, they’ve also turned the ball over 18 times (tied for sixth-most), and the other side of the ball has largely been ugly. Even with recent improvements thanks to trading for Quinnen Williams and getting a couple of young contributors back from injury, for the season, they still ranked ahead of only the Bengals in defensive DVOA and have allowed opponents to score on the second-highest rate of drives (47.9%). Where they’ve shown massive strides over this past month, coming off their bye week, has been run defense, lowering their success rate allowed by just over 10% (38.2% now). The pairing of Quinnen and Osa Odighizuwa gives them a dangerous interior duo of pass-rushers, but they’re relying on Jadeveon Clowney to clean up quarterbacks getting flushed, and you can certainly attack their linebackers in coverage. That’s how they’re also tied with Cincy for a league-high in third-down conversion rate (47.8%). Funnily enough, they’ve been hurt but also benefited more from penalty yardage for/against them.
15. Kansas City Chiefs (6-7) 
Right behind the Cowboys is the other participant from last year’s Super Bowl, who those guys have beaten recently. Thanksgiving at Jerry World wasn’t the low point for a KC team that has now lost four of their past five games, when they should’ve been primed for a run over the second half of the schedule following the bye. Where their season probably ended in reality was this past Sunday Night, when the frustrations of a season that seemingly never truly got off the ground boiled over, and Andy Reid got overeager to kick-start the offense by going for it on fourth-and-one from their own 31-yard line. It used to be opponents getting tight and making questionable decisions based on the Chiefs’ mystique. Even when it felt like they were the ones dictating terms defensively in the second half of that matchup, with Steve Spagnuolo in assault mode by blitz, and they got a vintage Chris Jones performance, after they had been average on that side of the ball by most metrics, they couldn’t cash on it. What’s crazy about all of this is the fact that on the surface, as you go through their statistical profile, it’s pretty easy to make an argument that they’re actually a little better than last year’s 15-2 team. Even after their 20-10 loss at home to the Texans, they’re just inside the top ten in point differential for the season (+63), and they rank sixth in schedule-adjusted DVOA. The pendulum has truly swung the opposite way, as they’re 1-6 in one-score games, and simply haven’t been able to make the key plays in the biggest moments and come out on top. So if they somehow were to get into the tournament against an AFC field largely lacking (positive) experience in January, they could end up being dangerous, but head-to-head losses to the Jaguars, Bills, Texans and their two AFC West foes, make that nearly impossible.
16. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-6) 
We’ve reached the NFC South portion of the program and you could easily flip these two teams, if you like. What that decision comes down to is how heavily you weigh recent form versus what they can be at their best. Ultimately, I don’t look at either side being able to a deep playoff push, but there are a few more things I think bank on with the Bucs in that set-up, hosting what probably will be the five-seed – as we’ve seen in the past. The run game hasn’t nearly been as efficient or well-constructed without Liam Coen calling the shots and they’ll need to work Mike Evans back into the offense, yet right now they just feel a little off compared to when they were firing on all cylinders throughout their 5-1 start. Baker putting the ball a tad high and Emeka Egbuka not being able to haul it in for a likely game-winning touchdown on a double move this past Sunday against the Saints best illustrates that. Somewhat quietly, they’ve plummeted to 28th in offensive success rate (42.1%), while Baker has reversed to being more of a net negative as a scrambler. Defensively, I actually really like the cohesiveness this secondary has reached, paired with Vita Vea being a wall in the middle, setting the table for the fourth-best defense in rushing success rate (35.3%). You know you’re getting a bunch of fire zones on early downs trying to push offenses behind the chains and they have guys who can make plays on the ball when they can play with their eyes on it. At the same time, there are some pretty obvious tendencies with how they match personnel, you can find success by putting their linebackers into conflict, and they’ve allowed opponents to turn red zone trips into touchdowns at the third-highest rate (68.8%). They are however tied for the fourth-best turnover differential in the league (+9).
17. Carolina Panthers (7-6) 
On the other side of this argument is a Panthers team that has put together the biggest rollercoaster season of anyone in the league, now having alternated between wins and losses these past seven weeks, including no-shows by their offense against the Saints and 49ers, but also two of the most impressive upsets you’re going to find, winning slow-tempo, run-heavy contest at Lambeau Field, but then also out-pacing my number one team in the Rams most recently, fueled by three turnover from their defense to put them over the top. Nobody has oscillated at the same frequency as the team overall as their quarterback Bryce Young. He looks totally uncomfortable one week, but then hangs in the pocket and beats defenses with pin-point throws as the rush is closing in, the next. At their core however, they want to rely on pounding the rock, Dave Canales seems to have a couple of designer plays crafted against their opponents every week, they now have a guy in first-round pick Tetairoa McMillan if they do face man-coverage, and only the Broncos have put together more game-winning drives at the end (five). Although we have seen some improvement from their defense finally under Ejiro Evero, they’re main issue is that they simply can’t get off the field, allowing opponents to convert 46.8% of third and fourth downs combined. Derrick Brown has been tremendous again this season, but they just don’t have anyone they can rely upon off the edge, as they’ve registered the lowest pressure rate in the league (21.6%). Another funny quirk I found in my research is that they’re the only team perfectly balanced with 17 turnovers on offense and defense each, and those have been integral in their success. Thankfully, we’ll get this divisional rivalry twice over the final three weeks.
18. Pittsburgh Steelers (7-6) 
Moving on to our duo of AFC North blue bloods, who just battled it out in Baltimore, in what was one of the uglier iterations even of their storied series. I can see how some Steelers fans can spin this into them being able to make the key plays needed with their backs against the wall coming into that day, and talk themselves into this version of Aaron Rodgers paired with an opportunistic defense. But let me ask you guys this – Are you really satisfied with what you’re currently watching? Even if we accept that some of these questionable calls ultimately even out over the course of a season, and while I still can’t believe the Isaiah Likely touchdown was reversed, I’d argue Pittsburgh was the more deserving side, we have to wonder what the ceiling of this operation looks like. The formula for success is pretty clear with them. Rodgers needs to mix in the occasional vertical shot with all the quick game stuff this offense revolves around, paired with some quick-hitting runs from the shotgun. Meanwhile, they’ve realized that they don’t have the bodies in coverage outside of Joey Porter Jr. to play extensive man-coverage, but rather they need to crowd spaces and force quarterbacks to hold onto the ball, in order for their pass-rush to get home. Only the Bears have forced more turnovers (23), and they’re tied for sixth in total sacks (36). They’re certainly vulnerable on the ground on the edges, as Buffalo illustrated when they rushed for 249 yards just the week prior, while your offense doesn’t counterbalance that with many explosives of their own, as Rodgers is still tied for a league-low 6.4 yards average depth of target.
19. Baltimore Ravens (6-7) 
Do I feel like Baltimore is still the team with the higher ceiling among these two? And is there a path for them putting together another four-game win streak to end the year, before hosting a home playoff game with momentum? Absolutely. I played around with the playoff predictor a little bit and found that as long as they win the rematch in Pittsburgh, they’d basically have the tie-breaker based on success against common opponents, as long as they otherwise win the same number of games. Having said that, I don’t have any real data points that would suggest we’ll at some point see a version of these Ravens that resembles those from the last couple of years. The fact that they’re tied for second with 5.0 yards per-carry is kind of a lie, as they’ve ripped off the occasional explosive, but they actually rank 22nd in rushing success rate (40.1%). Moreover, the lack of answers with their protection plans, Lamar has looked as skittish inside the pocket as we’ve seen in a while, along with lacking that extra gear when he does escape, and they seem allergic to holding onto the ball as they get to the end zone. Only two offenses have converted red zone drives into touchdowns at a lower rate than them (44.9%). The defensive numbers are kind of skewed by the various injuries they dealt with prior to pulling themselves out of that 1-5 hole, but they simply can’t get to the quarterback with just four rushers, as only the 49ers and Panthers have recorded fewer sacks (19). For as much as they were able to hold down bad offenses from scoring points for a while, we’ve now seen what Joe Burrow and Aaron Rodgers are capable of against them when they never truly feel uncomfortable.
20. Miami Dolphins (6-7) 
The fact that the Dolphins now sit here with the same record as AFC titans like the Chiefs and Ravens, considering how their season started, feels absolutely. They were 1-6 at one point. The Browns defense absolutely destroyed them at the end of that stretch, and even after a shocking 34-10 win over the Falcons at the time, they were quickly brought back down to earth by the Ravens the following Thursday Night, to where many were just waiting for news on Mike McDaniel getting fired potentially the next day. Instead, they moved on from GM Chris Grier, and they’ve now won four straight, and have a sliver of hope for a Wildcard berth at least. The key to their turnaround has been the fact that they’ve gone away from being this high-flying passing attack and turning into one of the premier running teams. Right now, they rank behind only the Rams and Colts in rush EPA (0.025), as Devon Achane is averaging 5.8 yards per carry and no other team has ripped off more explosives on the ground (14). On the flipside, they’ve defended the run at a higher level, with growth from their pair of rookie D-tackles and just allowing their linebackers to attack the backfield. Since they now push opponents into more defined passing situations, DC Anthony Weaver can really shine with various pressure looks and forcing quarterbacks to re-configure what’s happening coverage-wise post-snap. That’s set the table for logging ten takeaways combined over this four-game win streak, and Rasul Douglas has at least solidified one of those corner spots that killed them earlier in the year.
21. Indianapolis Colts (8-5) 
All I can say here is this – I’m sorry, Colts fans. Although they had to go to overtime for it, they must’ve felt great flying back from Germany after their win over the Falcons, to put them at 8-2 and all but wrap up the AFC South crown. Since the bye week that followed, the lost in heartbreaking fashion at Kansas City in OT, an All-Pro corner in Sauce Gardner, who they had just traded two first-round picks for, suffered a calf strain a couple of snaps into the Texans game, and this past Sunday at Jacksonville – their house of horrors – Daniel Jones tore his Achilles, before the Jags pulled away from them and took control of the division race. By giving up that draft capital, they pretty much took themselves out of the rookie quarterback market these next two years and locked themselves into the veteran, who they’re hoping will be close to 100% again when 2026 kicks off. I was dubious about the move at the time, with the logic of adding a true difference-maker at a position of need for a team with realistic Super Bowl aspirations in a watered-down AFC. Even now, this is still the number four team in total DVOA for the season, which generally weighs offense more heavily. They also remain as the lone team to score on over half of their drives (51.2%), and only the Lions have a higher yards-per-play average (6.1) than what Shane Steichen has orchestrated. We still needed to see the defense come together with Sauce and Charvarius Ward on the outside, but only the Broncos have surrendered a lower yards-per-carry average (3.8 YPC), Laiatu Latu had emerged as a problem off the edge, and DC Lou Anarumo does have the capacity to put together one-off gameplans to challenge elite quarterbacks. Unfortunately, signing a 44-year-old granddad to sling the rock doesn’t give me a whole lot of optimism.
22. Cincinnati Bengals (4-9) 
When looking at the standings, you see that the Bengals don’t have that “e” (for eliminated) next to their names quite yet, but giving away that Bills game this past Sunday probably sealed their fate. Once again, they were already in field goal range up by three prior to that game-changing pick-six by Christian Benford. They were at the brink of winning back-to-back contests at Baltimore and Buffalo, while the Ravens and Steelers were involved in a slopfest for who would take control of the AFC North, almost by default. Considering the run they went on last year, rattling off five straight wins, but not getting help from others on the final Sunday of the season, now Joe Burrow coming back from his turf toe injury and performing as well up to that point, this has to be highly disappointing. Having said that, the defense is still a complete mess. They rank dead-last in defensive DVOA, they’ve given up an NFL-high 63(!) plays of 20+ yards, and they’re allowing 2.1 points more per game than any other team in the league (31.8 PPG). Not having the one impact player from 2024 in Trey Hendrickson has certainly been felt, but this is what it really comes down to – Cincy has created the fewest tackles for loss (40), while according to pro-football-reference.com, they’ve missed 143 attempted stops – no other team has more than 107. You’re simply not going to get off the field if you can’t create negatives, yet any play against you has a chance to turn into an explosive. The one thing you can really give them credit for all season long is being disciplined, as only the Rams have a better net penalty yardage count (+204 yards).
23. Minnesota Vikings (5-8) 
For a team that came into the final game of the 2024 season with a chance to win a 15th game and secure the NFC’s top seed, to put together your two worst showings and get eliminated in the Wildcard Round, before heading into the final month of the following year, basically already eliminated, certainly is an unfortunate turn of events. Without wanting to re-hash the whole decision to let Sam Darnold walk in free agency and move forward with a top ten pick in J.J. McCarthy, after missing his entire rookie season, the idea was that they’d firm up the interior line on both sides of the ball and be a more complete team overall. And I’ll give them credit here – Brian Flores’ defense has put together some dominant showings. On the opposite end of the spectrum from what I just referenced with the Bengals, only Cleveland has recorded more tackles for loss (85) than Minnesota, who have also given up an NFL-low 30 plays of 20+ yards. Plus, they’re also top ten in third-down and red zone efficiency, where they can throw a bunch of these exotic looks at opponents by changing the picture after the snap. Unfortunately, their offense has fallen off dramatically compared to where they were last year. They’ve actually quietly risen to fourth in rushing success rate (44.8%), but even with by far his best showing of the season, McCarthy ranks 36th out of as many quarterbacks with 200+ dropbacks in EPA per play(-0.205). In large part, that’s due to his contributions in leading the NFL with 26(!) giveaways, general inaccuracies on routine throws, and having taken a bunch of sacks (47 – third-most as a team). Justin Jefferson has put up more than 81 receiving yards twice all season – that should be a crime, as he’s averaged more than that in every year as a pro.
24. New Orleans Saints (3-10) 
First and foremost, to address the elephant in the room about their statistical profile, only the Titans and Raiders have posted worse point differentials on the year (-109). Now, half of that number came in two blowout losses at the hands of the Seahawks and Rams (by a combined 55 points). Otherwise, they’ve largely been a pretty competitive team, where they were simply outmatched talent-wise, as this roster is going through a bit of a transition period with a bunch of aging veterans and guys on rookie contracts. I don’t want to go overboard on second-round pick Tyler Shough’s performance, since he does still rank behind his teammate that he replaced, Spencer Rattler, when it comes to dropback EPA and success rate among qualified quarterbacks, but I do have to acknowledge that he’s provided a little bit of a spark. The two issues for them have been their lack of efficiency on the ground (3.7 YPC) and that they’ve clearly been the worst offense in terms of cashing in touchdowns once they reach the red zone (41.2%). Defensively, there’s optimism for how guys like Kool-Aid McKinstry and Jonas Sanker have fit in on the back-end, for a Brandon Staley-coordinated unit that’s pretty much dead-average across all metrics. They’ve certainly hit a softer part of their schedule, facing their three NFC South rivals along with Miami, but if you extrapolated what they’ve done over the last four games for the season, they’d shockingly be the number one unit in EPA per play (-0.141). Unfortunately, only the Browns have been worse on special teams, according to DVOA, with their two kickers converting on an NFL-low 69% of attempted field goals. But they’ve now taken down the two teams vying for the division over the past month.
25. Cleveland Browns (3-10) 
I know people want to make a big deal about Shedeur Sanders throwing for a season-high 364 yards, given how bad the state of affairs has been at the quarterback position, but the story with this team has been the defense. They rank fourth in defensive DVOA over the course of the season, while being dead-last on offense and special teams in that metric. Myles Garrett is ahead of schedule for securing the all-time single-season sack record, Carson Schwesinger is the overwhelming favorite for Defensive Rookie of the Year as a rangy demon on the second level, and Jim Schwartz has this secondary playing with a lot of confidence again, as they lead the league with a 64.7% middle-of-the-field closed percentage. Cleveland ranks second in sacks (44) and they have 16 more tackles for loss than any other team (101). Now, going back to Shedeur and their offensive exploits. There’s not really any doubt that they should’ve gone to him earlier, even though that’s more based on the fact that fellow rookie Dillon Gabriel simply didn’t give them anything resembling competent quarterback play. Especially this past week, we did see a few moments of delivering big-time throws in obvious dropback settings, in order to move the chains. For as much hate as Kevin Stefanski is receiving for taking his quarterback off the field on that final two-point conversion, they would’ve most likely converted had Quishon Judkins simply pitched the ball on the reverse play. That rookie has actually been the engine of their offense with his physical running style, but I do agree that they need to open up the offense a little bit, because even if nothing Sanders can do would change their plans next April, having him throw behind the line of scrimmage more than beyond it, doesn’t allow you to fairly evaluate anyone.
26. Atlanta Falcons (4-9) 
I never thought this is where we’d arrive with the Falcons. Was I on board with how general manager Terry Fontenot has handled future draft capital and the quarterback situation especially? Absolutely not. But I projected them to be in a tight race with the Bucs for the NFC South. I mean, last year they found themselves in a position with a chance to win the division had they taken care of business and Tampa Bay had lost simultaneously, despite Kirk Cousins leading the league in interceptions (16), and ultimately getting benched for the final three weeks. So with those three top ten picks among their skill-position group and outside of center – where Ryan Neuzil has filled in more than admirably – their interior O-line coming back, I felt like this could be a fun offense with Michael Penix Jr. as the trigger man. Losing right tackle Kaleb McGary with a lefty QB on the eve of the season was hurtful, but Penix was inconsistent when it comes to accuracy and identifying pretty standard safety rotations. That’s a big piece in why only the Titans have converted third downs at a lower rate (31.0%). Good news for Falcons fans when it comes to the defensive side – this team ranks third in total sacks (43), after finishing in the bottom-two in three of the four previous years, which is a testament to Jeff Ulrich being more adaptable and aiding the development of their two first-round rookie edge rushers. Unfortunately, they’ve regressed back to the mean in most metrics overall, following a strong start, while some of the better rushing attacks they’ve faced have largely been able to hammer away at them. The real crux in all of this is that they’ll be handing what might end up being a top-five pick to the Rams, while their quarterback will come into 2026 as a 26-year-old who’s torn his ACL three times already.
27. Arizona Cardinals (3-10) 
If Arizona had just been somewhat competitive against the Rams at home this past Sunday, I might’ve been willing to bump them up a couple of spots. They’ve been surprisingly competitive against likely playoff teams at different points, with positive signs on both sides of the ball. Allowing their division rivals to truly mop the floor with them following an opening drive Cardinals touchdown, to mark their second five-game losing streak for the year, was rough to watch. With recent news around Kyler Murray not returning and how oddly they’ve handled this situation, as Jacoby Brissett had been performing very respectably until this past matchup, it feels like some organizational shift has to be on the horizon. Although I’ve been intrigued with their unconventional approaches to play-calling on both sides of the ball for today’s game, the natural next step for this group was to make the playoffs – and they’ve won one game since September 14th. Since I made a video last year about how they were bludgeoning opponents with their ground game, to me, the most disappointing piece in all of this has been how inept they’ve been in that area. While the Raiders are in a league of their own when it comes to this, the Cardinals are the only offense worse in terms of rush EPA (-0.186). Losing their heartbeat James Conner and even a promising second-year back in Trey Benson, has definitely hurt, but as more teams have adapted multi-tight-end sets, that approach hasn’t provided the contrast for defenses it previously did. Now, two points of optimism for people in the desert – Michael Wilson has vastly exceeded expectations as their de facto WR1 over the past month, and the flashes we’ve seen in very limited time from rookie D-tackle Walter Nolen have been extremely bright.
28. Washington Commanders (3-10) 
When I predicted the Commanders to miss the playoffs after their magical run to the NFC Championship, I did not foresee Jayden Daniels dealing with multiple highly concerning injuries. My doubts were more so rooted in the construction of easily the oldest roster in the league and some of the “win-now” moves they had made. Trading for left tackle Laremy Tunsil should ultimately be beneficial, as he’s put together another excellent season, but guys like Deebo Samuel and Von Miller should one day make for weird pictures in your Google searches, when you see them in those Washington uniforms from that one year. This is where I’d give OC Kliff Kingsbury credited more remaining a functional offense, despite Marcus Mariota taking just over half of their snaps at quarterback, but the timing isn’t great, after they just got shut out in Minnesota. Nevertheless, they still rank top ten in offensive success rate (6.5%), and the one thing they can truly hang their hat on is the fact that they’re converting red zone trips into touchdowns at the fifth-highest rate in the league (65.7%). My concerns about their defense have fully come true, however. Von having been their most effective pass-rusher is more of an indictment on the rest of that front. Bobby Wagner had a pick thrown right at his chest a couple of weeks ago on a play where he basically didn’t move off the spot, and has been a liability in coverage for a while now. They don’t really disguise what they do, they rarely fool protections, and their only one of six back-seven defender who hasn’t allowed a passer rating North of 100 is Marshon Lattimore – who’s the fourth-most penalized player in the league. Only the Bengals have allowed a higher yards-per-play average (6.2 YPP), and nobody has enabled their opponents to score on a higher rate of drives (49.6%).
29. New York Jets (3-10) 
Gang Green was coming into this past week off by far their best five-game stretch of the season. They had collected all three of their wins, and even against the Patriots and Ravens, they at least had the ball with an opportunity to tie the score up in the fourth quarter. Then on Sunday, they were down 21-0 at home to the Dolphins before they could even blink. Now, they may be heading into Jacksonville with undrafted free agent rookie Brady Cook under center, due to injuries to both their previous starters, and have to decide if they want to bring Garrett Wilson off IR. I will say that Jets fans should be happy about how this young offensive line has come together, which is backed up by being right at league-average in both pass- and run-blocking grades from PFF (15th and 17th respectively), while opening lanes for their one true bright spot in Breece Hall. The real disappointment has been this defense, which actually has been slightly better since trading away All-Pro level talents in Quinnen Williams and Sauce Gardner. They’ve been highly inconsistent against the run, and after the cohesion in the secondary and how well they communicated, was the selling point for Aaron Glenn as the DC in Detroit, which simply hasn’t translated to New York (yet). Somehow, they have yet to intercept a pass all season, and overall are at a league-worst -15 in turnover differential as a team. In terms of DVOA, which adjusts for schedule, the Jets rank 28th on offense and 30th on defense, but what’s helped them win a few games recently is their special teams being all the way at the top. Isaiah Williams just returned his second punt for a touchdown, they lead the league in kick return average (29.8 yards), and Nick Folk has only missed one of 43 total kicks. And they are now loaded with draft capital these next two years.
30. New York Giants (2-11) 
With all the promise we‘ve seen from their rookie class, do the Giants feel like a team on track for the first overall pick next April? That‘s where their fans can find solace, as they‘ve watched Malik Nabers and Cam Skattebo go down with season-ending injuries at different points, while Jaxson Dart has dealt with multiple concussions, yet for the promise they’ve shown, they may be set up for a quick turnaround if they can take advantage of their current draft capital. Somehow, New York ranks 12th in overall offensive EPA per play (0.042), powered by creation plays from their young quarterback and only turning the ball over multiple times in three of 13 games. The disappointing piece of this has been their defense. Somehow, they rank in the bottom-four in success rate, DVOA and EPA per play. Despite all the talent up front, with the entirety of their four-man pass-rush when they get to third downs regularly consisting of first-round picks, they’ve rarely felt like the side in control of games. A big piece of this has been based on allowing more than an extra half a yard every time the ball is handed off (5.8 YPC) and by far the worst EPA per rush of anyone in the league (0.169). So they rarely are able to put opponents behind the chains, and they simply haven’t found any reliable corners outside of Paulson Adebo. Former first-round pick Deonte Banks has nearly surrendered a perfect passer rating when targeted (155.0), and when seventh-round rookie Korie Black has stepped in for him, he’s actually accomplished that “feat” (158.3).
31. Tennessee Titans (2-11) 
With the Titans beating the Browns in a surprisingly thrilling 31-29 game, where all three phases contributed in a certain way, we no longer have any teams left without multiple victories. That earned them the honor of not being dead-last in these rankings. Their offense is still largely a mess. Even after cracking 30 points in a game for the first time this season, they’re averaging an NFL-worst 4.2 yards per play, they’re dead-last in third-down conversion rate (29.9%), and even with the flashes of brilliance, first overall pick Cam Ward hasn’t been able to elevate his surroundings. Thanks to a 16 total turnovers and some of the bad sacks he’s taken, he ranks ahead of only Minnesota’s J.J. McCarthy among those 36 quarterbacks with 200+ dropbacks in EPA per play (-0.169). Having Jeffery Simmons and T’Vondre Sweat on the interior of their D-line has helped Tennessee log the eighth-lowest rushing success rate against (38.2%), and I’d say that they’ve been put in some bad field positions by the other side of the ball, as they’re almost perfectly average when it comes to yards they’ve surrendered per drive (31.4). I think DC Dennard Wilson has done a solid job of integrating their young players while staying respectable as a unit. You’re simply not going to get it done with how this corner room is currently constructed. The one major bright spot for this team has been rookie Chimere Dike on special teams, who not only leads the league in total return yardage (1682) based on getting a lot of work, but he’s also taken two of 18 punts back to the house. Still, their point differential of -156 is 20 worse than the next-closest team in that regard, which is the …
32. Las Vegas Raiders (2-11) 
There are so many things to point to for how bad this Raiders offense has been. They’re the only team to just come up short of 200 points scored for the season, they’ve allowed an NFL-high 50 sacks, but most glaring – they’ve averaged -0.313 EPA per rush, which is basically twice as bad as the team currently ranked 29th in that metric, for reference. It’s very much a one-man show with Brock Bowers, and this team has brought the worst out of Geno Smith, either getting frustrated and trying to force throws into windows that simply aren’t there, or double-clutching and getting taken to the ground in muddy pockets. Defensively, you can find positives in how coordinator Patrick Graham has continued to get the secondary to overperform and some of the game-wrecking moments Maxx Crosby has had, but there’s not a whole lot more to it. Nobody else up front has been able to consistently apply pressure, their middle-of-the-field defenders are like puppets that you can move around effortlessly, and now, arguably their top corner Kyu Blu Kelly is headed for IR. So even though the point differential would point towards the Titans deserving that spot at the very bottom, there’s been some lipstick being put on the pig late in their games, such as kicking a completely meaningless field goal with time running out this past Sunday. The difference between the Raiders and Tennessee (-32.3 and -32.5) is total team DVOA is negligible. And most importantly, the Raiders pretty clearly own the title of worst in the HRF.com statistic of average field position, starting their drives five yards further back than their opponents.
Halil's Real Footballtalk 