We’re at the eve of the 2025 NFL season and once again, it’s time to put my predictions out there in the ether – all the awards, playoff teams and who I have facing each other in Super Bowl LX.
Unlike I’ve done in previous years, where I chose my top three candidates for each category, I decided to present my choice to win and my favorite dark horse. Along with that, I’ll lay out my cases for the playoff seedings and how I came to my matchup on the game’s biggest stage. Of course, those categories often are intertwined, and I will refer to how I combined individual and team success in the following paragraphs.
In order to determine the playoff picture, I went through all 272 individual matchups, taking into account important circumstances, such as rest (dis)advantages, how games fit within those schedules and, of course, personnel clashes.
Yet again, I‘ve added the full Excel file with every single team’s weekly results and final record at the very bottom, if you’re interested!
Awards:
MVP:
Winner – Lamar Jackson
I initially tried to go away from the “easy” pick, just going with the name that just came up short in the MVP race, after already earning first-team All-Pro accolades. Personally, I had no real issue with the split, as I would argue Lamar played the quarterback position at the highest level of anyone across the league, while Josh Allen proved to have the most value for his team. Considering I have the Ravens winning an extra game (12) and the quarterbacks of the number one seeds in either conference may not put up massive numbers for their squad to reach those heights – as they didn’t in 2024 – Jackson earned the nod. This would be his third time taking home MVP honors, after just narrowly coming in second, and what’s so astounding to me is how much better he’s gotten as a problem-solver from the pocket compared to his 2019 self, when he first took the NFL by storm. Lamar just posted his highest big-time-throw rate (6.3%) and lowest turnover-worthy play percentage (1.6%) as a pro. Even more impressive has been his response to pressure, allowing just 11.8% of those to convert into sacks, and after struggling to correctly ID and find answers against the blitz, as he actually boosted his EPA per play mark on such dropbacks (0.41). With veteran WR DeAndre Hopkins having the box-out skills and reliable hands to snatch the ball in contested situations, otherwise every other starter coming back, potentially more of a rotation in the backfield, favoring guys can deliver hidden yardage on dump-offs, and Todd Monken entering year three as the play-caller in Baltimore, I see very similar results – and Josh ends up winning one fewer game.
Dark horse – Caleb Williams
Here’s a quick disclaimer to start things off – I placed my Caleb Williams for MVP bet right after day two of the draft concluded. They selected two of my top-15 overall prospects (Michigan TE Colston Loveland and Missouri WR Luther Burden III) and a solid swing tackle. They now boast an embarrassment of riches when it comes to the sheer volume of receiving options on the roster, as I also project a second-year jump for Rome Odunze. Last year, a lot of people said that this was the best situation a number one overall pick ever walked into. Considering they retained most of the previous coaching staff and brought in Shane Waldron as the OC, I did have some reservations at the time. Yet, as I look at Chicago now, they completely overhauled the interior of their O-line, which I already outlined in detail as being one of the most improved units in the entire league, they basically swapped Keenan Allen for those two high-end draftees, and now Ben Johnson is in the quarterback’s ear, who unquestionable is one of the premier play-callers and -designers in the sport, having just turned Jared Goff from an outcast into one of the best performers at the position statistically. When you try to contextualize why the number one overall pick looked so shaky at times, poor spacing and architecture of passing concepts, constantly being pushed into his worst tendencies thanks to horrendous pocket integrity, and the head-scratching moments of game management overall were omnipresent. And yet, he flashed big-time ability for stretches in and out of structure. If those moments as a creator are more deliberately sprinkled in, with schematic advantages setting the baseline, I think we’ll see a totally different player.
Honorable mentions: Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, C.J. Stroud & Drake Maye
(Non-QB) Offensive Player of the Year:
Winner – Ja’Marr Chase
Although I correctly predicted last year’s winner of the award Saquon Barkley at 25-to-1 odds, I won’t pick him to repeat here as the favorite this time around, considering the massive workload he amassed en route to winning the Super Bowl with the Eagles. Instead, I will pick the name right behind him in terms of odds – Ja’Marr Chase. He’s coming off a season in which he just won the NFL’s receiving triple crown (127 catches for 1708 yards and 17 touchdowns). Along with being a special talent, who can turn a routine catch into a 70-yard touchdown at any point as he turns on the jets, but also has the tremendous ball-skills to win in contested situations, the reason he was that productive is based on Cincinnati’s defense being abysmal and them constantly having to put more points on the board. Well, there’s no reason for me to believe that won’t be the same in 2025. They only just found a way to come to terms with easily their most important defender Trey Hendrickson on a revised one year contract, it took until late July for first-round pick Shemar Stewart to start practicing – who’s a developmental pass-rusher anyway – and for as promising as DC Al Golden’s impact could be long-term, this is his first year installing the new system. Chase, at worst has the fourth-best quarterback in the league, now heading into year seven together as a duo (going back to their LSU days), and even though I *just* have Cincinnati sneaking into the playoffs, their number one posting ludicrous numbers will once be required to just challenge the AFC’s best.
Dark horse – Bucky Irving
This is another wager I placed as soon as sportsbooks offered them this offseason (at 66-to-1). If you scroll down to the second half of this article, you’ll see that I ended up with the Falcons winning the NFC South, but the Bucs still earn a Wildcard berth in that scenario, and I’d expect their excellent second-year running back to be a key piece of the equation. Bucky led all running backs in the NFL with 3.93 yards after contact on average, only dropped one 48 catchable passes, and forced 74 tackles across 273 total touches. That’s despite logging over 60% of offensive snaps in just two games as a rookie, yet he received 15+ touches in all but one of the final eight weeks, in which he actually got banged up early on. What clearly impressed that coaching staff – and I highlighted it as part of my “under-the-radar studs” last December – was his conceptual understanding of their gap-heavy run game, the ability to naturally alter his stride length, press creases, manipulate second-level, and then the peripheral vision when he was able to break through. Rachaad White may still be their preferred third-down option, thanks to his work in pass-protection, but we already saw his involvement as a runner decline, and if anything, I’d expect the big-play ability of Sean Tucker to be valued more compared to last season. If star left tackle Tristan Wirfs misses any extended time, that further compounds the loss of OC Liam Coen, who just orchestrated a top-six rushing attack (in EPA and success rate), but the Bucs are set up to face defenses that ranked 19th or worse in EPA per play last year for 11 of their 17 games on slate.
Honorable mentions: Saquon Barkley, Nico Collins, Bijan Robinson, Christian McCaffrey & Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Defensive Player of the Year:
Winner – Maxx Crosby
Considering the Raiders only finished with a winning record once since Crosby was selected in the fourth round of the previous draft and have yet to win a playoff game with him on the roster, their standout defensive end hasn’t received the attention he deserves throughout the years. He missed five games last year, but over the three previous seasons combined, he clearly led the league in both QB total pressures (276) and a combined defensive stops (156) – constituting a positive outcome on the play for the defense, based on down and distance. While you can argue about his efficiency, as someone who has played at least 95% of snaps when available these last three years, voters don’t typically hold that against players, as long as the counting numbers are there. The reason the sack total at least has been slightly lower than the other top edge defenders is that the Raiders rarely have found themselves in positive game scripts, which set up opportunities to rush the passer against teams that need to throw the ball. With Pete Carroll coming in and adding three new pillars on offense with play-caller Chip Kelly, quarterback Geno Smith, and sixth overall pick Ashton Jeanty at running back, alongside tight-end Brock Bowers coming off a record-setting rookie season, you’d expect that side of the ball to make a significant jump. Meanwhile, they retain Patrick Graham as their defensive coordinator, and even though there are questions about this back-seven in the pass game, they at least typically use a wide rolodex of coverages for quarterbacks to decipher, which should at least give Mad Maxx some time to get home.
Dark horse – Kyle Hamilton
My second choice here wasn’t easy, since there were several edge defenders in particular who will always be in consideration, because they can rack up these sacks and TFLs more so than any other position, to measure their performance in a way that’s easier for anyone to comprehend. Choosing a defensive back therefore isn’t often advisable, but if there’s one guy who can almost equally fill the stat sheet for voters to pay attention to, it’d be Hamilton. Midway through this past season, we saw the Ravens make the integral decisions to bench two veteran safeties while Kyle was primarily on the field as their big nickel, in favor of pulling him back deep and inserting Ar’Darius Washington. That, along with a few schematic tweaks, set the table for their defense to go from 30th in dropback EPA through the first ten weeks to number one with a bullet from that point onwards. Having said that, I believe the selection of Georgia standout safety Malaki Starks at the end of the first round will enable Kyle to drop down more regularly, considering how impactful his presence can be closer to the line of scrimmage, with his ability to elude blockers, lay big hits, and use his length to disrupt passing windows. Hamilton has posted 71 total defensive stops and 26 QB pressures on just 82 pass-rush snaps over the past two seasons combined. Taking into account that I project Baltimore to win 12 games, their defense should be more consistently near the top of the league now in year two under DC Zach Orr, and he’s the most noteworthy name, I at least give him an outside shot.
Honorable mentions: Will Anderson Jr., Micah Parsons, Fred Warner, Jalen Carter & Jared Verse
Offensive Rookie of the Year:
Winner(s) – Ashton Jeanty & Cam Ward
Yes, I’m a coward and picked the two favorites for OROY as co-winners, as I project them to be the driving forces behind both teams massively improving their new teams’ win totals to eight each. And if I had put together my usual top three candidates, Panthers wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan (the 8th overall selection) would’ve earned that final spot.
Although the Raiders overall really struggled to run the ball last season, what they had in their backfield significantly contributed to their lack of success, as their 1.9 yards before contact on average was submarined further by averaging just 1.7 yards *after* contact. Meanwhile, their new featured back just led the country with 5.25(!) YAC and posted an insane 152 missed tackles forced en route to nearly beating the NCAA’s all-time single-season rushing record (2595 yards). The new OC in Vegas – Chip Kelly – just orchestrated one of the top rushing attacks at Ohio State, he now has an even bigger talent in the backfield, and head coach Pete Carroll will give him the green light to pound the rock for a ball-control style of attack. Jeanty may lack that big-time pull-away gear, but he navigates condensed space exceptionally well, can create individually beyond what’s presented to him schematically, and becomes a sledgehammer when he’s actually allowed to hit the second level at full throttle. With his main competition being the older running back in the league (Raheem Mostert, at 33), there’s no major threat to take away opportunities, and this guy played receiver until his senior year of high school.
Meanwhile, the Titans offense – especially through the air – as a whole was quite the mess in 2024. Having said that, I did generally like how sound the protection plans, passing concepts, and sequencing of plays were in the first year under head coach Brian Callahan. The main issue, along with a lack of options to target, was that their quarterback Will Levis had catastrophic pocket presence/management and would dish up one cataclysmically bad turnover on a weekly basis, it felt like. So this is certainly connected to my overall belief in Tennessee being a substantially better team than their 2024 record (3-14) would indicate, including a defense that just finished 12th in overall success rate allowed (43.6%) now entering year two in Dennard Wilson’s system, but also the guy they used that first overall pick on, although there seemingly is no hype around him. Cam Ward has some backyard football characteristics himself, but his composure and movement against pressure are drastically different. He has tremendous play on secondary-reaction plays, plus he’s a perfect fit for Callahan’s emphasis on the quick game. With some promising mid-round pass-catchers coming in and their re-organized O-line, I believe they could at least improve to an average unit and win 7-8 games as a team.
Dark horse – R.J. Harvey
I recently highlighted Harvey as part of my annual “fantasy diamonds” video, as someone to target in your drafts, due to the discount he comes in with as part of a cloudy Denver backfield. Even though veteran J.K. Dobbins is currently listed as the official starter and sat out all preseason, I believe we’ll see a pretty even split of snaps overall almost right away, and the rookie will ultimately earn the majority of opportunities for this backfield. For as tremendous as the Broncos defense was last season – and they directly contributed to this – they finished top-ten in scoring, despite very little individual help from the guys carrying the ball. Their offensive line set the table for a rushing attack that averaged 2.4 yards before contact, but the RB room wasted that to a certain degree with only 1.7 yards *after* contact. Meanwhile, Harvey just averaged 3.88 YAC and forced a missed tackle on 31.5% of his touches, displaying elite contact balance and re-acceleration. Denver brings back all five starters up, quarterback Bo Nix has shown that he needs to be accounted for more intently as a threat to pull the ball himself, and when Sean Payton talked about the need for a “joker” in offense, the answers were move tight-end Evan Engram and this second-round pick out of UCF. The latter is one of only four RBs the head coach has ever been involved in drafting in the first two rounds – the others being Reggie Bush, Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara. Two of those previously received 100+ targets, and Bo Nix had the league’s third-highest checkdown rate in his debut campaign (14.3%).
Honorable mentions: Tetairoa McMillan, Omarion Hampton, Emeka Egbuka & TreVeyon Henderson
Defensive Rookie of the Year:
Winner – Abdul Carter
If there was one award for 2025 that I had to blindly vote on, without considering the betting odds, Carter to me would be the no-doubt name to select. Sure, the Giants offense may be a limiting factor as to how many opportunities he receives to rush the passer while playing with the lead, but this was my number one overall prospect in the draft, he’s looked like a monster in limited preseason action, I called New York’s secondary the most improved one in the league, and I believe their front has a chance be absolutely dominant. The only reason there was any doubt about whether he’d be selected third overall for the G-Men was the fact that they had just picked up Kayvon Thibodeaux’s fifth-year option days earlier, after already trading for and extending Brian Burns the previous offseason. Therefore, what they’ll need to figure out exactly is how they deploy all of their guys on the line of scrimmage, since for all of them to officially start, Abdul may have to be listed as an “inside linebacker”. Yet, I don’t see how he can be the name missing out in that regard, and it seems like they’re already comfortable with using some the rookie as a stand-up rusher on the interior, maybe involve him as an off-ball blitzer, and considering he played linebacker in college until this past season, he’s fairly comfortable dropping into space and could get his hands on a few balls. He has elite acceleration and bend around the corner, but as he continues to develop his hand-combats and how he reads pass-sets/drops, he could really challenge all five guys across the offensive line. Plus, if they peel him off the line of scrimmage on a handful of occasions every game, quarterbacks may throw the ball right at him on a few of those because they didn’t actually see him.
Dark horse – Maxwell Hairston
The Bills went ultra-heavy on defense in this most recent draft, and I could list multiple other names here, who could make an early impact, but I’m going to give the nod to their first-round pick. The reason general manager Brandon Beane was so intent on improving that side of the ball is that they already were a top-three offense in both dropback and rush EPA last season, while their defense was basically average based on most metrics and significantly worse than that when they faced some of the elite quarterbacks and attacks overall. Unless Tre’Davious White discovered the fountain of youth in his second stint with Buffalo, considering the various injuries he’s suffered throughout his career, Hairston’s biggest challenger for the opportunity to start across from the recently extended Christian Benford on the outside, may be their actual sixth-round pick Dorian Strong. I believe the former Kentucky Wildcat could offer them a somewhat new dimension with his sub-4.3 coverage, the athletic confidence he demonstrates, and his click-and-close burst. That comes in very handy in more so vision-zone assignments if they play him over on the far side of the field, which would also protect him from being involved in the run fit largely – his biggest weakness at this point – thanks to nickel Taron Johnson. Moreover, he can run with these clear-outs and is so comfortable in off-man coverage when they get to third downs. With reinforcements up front to get to these obvious passing situations and accelerate the quarterback’s internal clock, the rookie could get his hands on plenty of footballs as the guy opponents are targeting, rather than the Pro Bowler on the other end of the lineup.
*Update – The Bills have placed Hairston on IR with designation to return as early as week five
Honorable mentions: Jihaad Campbell, Mason Graham, Jahdae Barron & Malaki Starks/Mike Green
Comeback Player of the Year:
Winner – Christian McCaffrey / Trevor Lawrence / Aidan Hutchinson
I have refused to talk about this award in detail, since even with the clarification of its guidelines for voters a couple of years ago, multiple of them didn’t even understand/comply with those themselves, and I feel like its spirit isn’t always being prioritized. At number one, I chose 2023 Offensive Player of the Year Christian McCaffrey, hopefully bouncing back in a major way, for an attack that could still be borderline elite. Second, I believe in Liam Coen helping Trevor Lawrence get back on the track, with how I expect him to overhaul Jacksonville’s ground game to take pressure off the former first overall pick, and put the ball in the hands of those young receivers in space. Lastly, Aidan Hutchinson was on a path to a dominant year as a pass-rusher in 2024 before fracturing his tibia and fibula just over a month in. He reportedly has been a terror during training camp, and should receive plenty of recognition if he comes close to his previous production.
Honorable mentions: Dak Prescott, Chris Olave & Maxx Crosby
Protector of the Year:
Winner – Lane Johnson
This is the other trophy, where we simply don’t know yet what criteria voters judge this based on. We have seen advanced metrics receive more love when it comes to making decisions for other awards. So, I’d think pressure numbers and Pro Football Focus grades will be taken in account, while I hold fairly little hope that the people in charge actually review the end-zone angle themselves. Nonetheless, Lane Johnson is an easy conclusion to come to – and justifiably so. If you take out an unordinary down 2023 season, the stalwart right tackle has otherwise not been charged with a single sack, two QB hits and 28 hurries across more than 1400 pass-blocking snaps over those other three most recent years. He also just received his highest PFF run-blocking grade (80.0) since 2019, paving the way for Saquon Barkley to re-set the all-time rushing record, if you include the postseason. At 35 years old, he’s still at the peak of his powers, and I project Philadelphia to be the NFC’s number one seed heading into the playoffs, while the guy on the right edge is just shutting down opponents.
Dark horse – Chris Lindstrom
Once again, we still have to see how individual play and team success are weighed here, plus if those more vocal linemen may get more preferential treatment, as they get highlighted on replays. I went with a different route, as both my favorite and long-shot picks are pretty quiet high-end performers. Lindstrom in particular hasn’t received much of the national spotlight because the Falcons offense, for all their talent, hasn’t yet broken out – I think that’ll change in 2025. Considering I have them winning double-digit games and snatching the NFC South crown away from the Bucs, his elite work as a zone-blocker in front of Bijan Robinson should be a prevalent feature. As for the advanced statistics, his resume in protection wasn’t as stellar last year as previously, due to having a statue back there in Kirk Cousins. The two previous seasons, he allowed a pressure on just every 2.1% of pass-blocking snaps, while Atlanta led the league in rushing success rate (47.3%), and Lindstrom himself received the highest overall PFF grade among guards for the third straight time (93.5).
Honorable mentions: Penei Sewell, Trent Williams, Creed Humphrey, Dion Dawkins & Tyler Linderbaum
Coach of the Year:
Winner – Ben Johnson
I had a tough time deciding on either Johnson or Mike Vrabel, since I also have the Patriots winning ten games, after they just selected fourth overall in the previous draft, but I ultimately went with the former, receiving the lion share of the credit for my spiciest prediction on here – Chicago earning the NFC’s number two seed with a 12-5 record. The formula for how the voting process looks like is certainly questionable, as some of the league’s best coaches rarely get recognized for continued excellence, even if they had been pivotal in navigating injuries and other challenging circumstances. Instead, this trophy typically goes to a new coach in charge, who significantly exceeds the team’s previous record or, even more so, their projected win total from Vegas. At the jump, I project the Bears to make, Johnson checks the box for both of those, and the narrative around him being especially valuable in their transformation is already in place. Going back to the top, I outlined Caleb Williams as a darkhorse MVP candidate, who I expect to go from being a heavily criticized number one overall pick to the first ever quarterback in franchise history to throw for over 4000 yards in a season. Meanwhile, he’ll probably also be recognized as the man in charge of hiring Dennis Allen as his defensive coordinator, who seems to be perfect fit for the personnel at hand, for a unit that actually looks slightly stronger than the one that was top-five in most categories over the second half of the 2023 season – once they had traded for Montez Sweat and changed play-callers. This kind of feels like a perfect storm for someone who’s been atop the list of head coach candidates for three straight years.
Dark horse – DeMeco Ryans
Now, as I just mentioned, the voting for this award is typically biased towards less tenured men in charge, who are able to turn things around quickly at a new place. DeMeco doesn’t quite fit that criteria, as he was the runner-up for 2023 Coach of the Year, losing by the narrowest of margins, due to one fewer first-place vote. That year, he turned a team that picked second and third overall in the draft (after trading up for the latter), securing cornerstones on offense (C.J. Stroud) and defense (Will Anderson Jr.), into division champs with a 10-7 record. Based on my projections for this season, it would mark the third straight year of reaching that mark, meaning they’re not substantially exceeding expectations. However, if you separate my final record for them from who I believe has a much better path than their odds would suggest (higher than 40-to-1 in some spots), I think he’s a good bet. My one major concern with Houston is their offensive line, replacing a Pro Bowl-level left tackle with a second-round rookie and projected starting interior three having received an average PFF grade last season of 59.2, after all the issues they had last season already. With that in mind, the move to Nick Caley as OC is very promising in how it could diversify the ground game and the responsibilities it puts on the quarterback setting protections, and I really like the duo of Iowa State wide receivers they acquired in the second round, along with vet Christian Kirk. Meanwhile, if I had to choose the league’s top defense today, the Texans would just narrowly lose out to Denver, considering their elite duo on the edges and the guys on the back-end, who can take the ball away. That, plus the ownership put on Stroud, will be credited to the head-man, if they add a couple more Ws to what I have them penciled in for.
Honorable mentions: Mike Vrabel, Kyle Shanahan, Pete Carroll & Liam Coen
Playoffs:
AFC:
1. Kansas City Chiefs (13-4) 
2. Baltimore Ravens (12-5) 
3. Buffalo Bills (11-6) 
4. Houston Texans (10-7) 
5. Denver Broncos (10-7) 
6. New England Patriots (10-7) 
7. Cincinnati Bengals (9-8) 
On the AFC side, it was a pretty close call for who I put at the top of the list, but giving Kansas City the W when they host the Ravens in week four made the difference. People may say they’re lucky or there’s some voodoo magic going on with how they continue to exceed how good the numbers would tell you they are, but Patrick Mahomes, Andy Reid and Steve Spagnuolo have simply figured out the formula for winning close games. Now, the division – which already sent three teams to the postseason in 2024/25 – will be even tougher, with the Raiders becoming more of a factor, but I think we’ll also see their offense have a few more explosive plays through the air, pending the availability of Rashee Rice and Hollywood Brown, and on the ground, with a healthy Isiah Pacheco. First-round pick Josh Simmons immediately looking like a quality left tackle and Omarr Norman-Lott contributing as an interior pass-rusher could be huge.
For Baltimore and Buffalo, it’s become all about how they finally get over the hump, of course. I’ve brought up earlier this offseason how that could affect the mindset of those teams and their MVP quarterbacks in particular, when it comes to the day-to-day operation and regular season success, but there’s no palpable reason to project the Ravens to take a step back. The only three projected new starters among their 22 between offense and defense combined are DeAndre Hopkins, with his eyes set on finally getting a Lombardi trophy, Jaire Alexander as two-time All-Pro coming off a pair of injury-riddled seasons, and first-round pick Malaki Starks, who I considered a top-ten prospect that could help them build on being the by far the number one defense in EPA per play over the second half of the season, once they benched their two veterans at the position and first-year DC Zach Orr made a couple of tweaks.
The Bills look very similar on the surface as you compare their two rosters and the newly projected starters. For them, Josh Palmer reportedly has been a real quality addition as someone who can legitimately play at X-receiver, Joey Bosa on a limited snap count could provide some value for a team lacking legit one-on-one winners on the edge paired with their cage rush unit, and I already highlighted first-round draft pick Maxwell Hairston as a dark horse DROY candidate. Josh Allen reached his best form of quarterbacking, with the perfect equilibrium between risk and reward. They’ve become a smashmouth rushing team to complement that, and I expect the influx of young talent to push their defense back to its usual standard.
As I already threw into the ether, I can imagine an avenue for the Texans to win a pair of extra games and compete for that first-round bye, if C.J. Stroud doesn’t carry over any scar tissue from last season and is in full command of their protection set-ups, in tune with getting the ball on time. I don’t really have any questions about that defense, assuming largely full health, because we already saw them create problems for multiple top-ranked attacks last season, and they should only be better as guys like Will Anderson Jr., Derek Stingley and a couple of second-year players continue to grow. As it stands, the division may show a higher level of competency throughout, but I don’t see any of those three rivals cracking the .500 mark.
Denver would be a really strong five-seed in this scenario. They’re set to face the just-mentioned AFC South, but also have to battle the NFC East, plus the Packers. So, I expect them to be even better than they were in 2024, even if they end up with the same record. Their defense already was the number one unit in EPA, constantly disrupting the backfield and challenging receivers, with an uber-aggressive play-caller in Vance Joseph. Yet, they decided to re-invest in that group with first-round pick Jahdae Barron as an inside-out DB and a pair of former 49ers coming off injuries (Dre Greenlaw and Talanoa Hufanga). Meanwhile, their offense looks exactly the same, only they upgraded the backfield and at tight-end with Evan Engram, while Bo Nix enters year two with Sean Payton.
Alright, you’ve got me – I’m drinking the Kool-Aid on the Pats. I didn’t expect to project them with a 10-7 record going into this exercise, but I struggled to find another loss or two on the schedule for them. Sure, they face the AFC North and have yet to prove they can take out the juggernaut in their division (Buffalo), unless they face their backups in a meaningless week 18 matchup, but they also have the NFC South on tap, along with the Raiders and Giants. I believe in a Drake Maye breakout now that he has a higher level of competency and dynamism among his skill-position group, and the only one of five O-line they didn’t part ways with was their best one (Mike Onwenu), while the combination of Mike Vrabel and Josh McDaniels returning to New England is really going to boost their weekly game-planning advantages.
Lastly, I do have the Bengals squeaking into the seven-seed, and in my projections, they were the only 9-8 team in the AFC. In principle, having Joe Burrow with that premier wide receiver duo and Trey Hendrickson in place should make this the baseline. Yet, nothing about how they’ve continued to handle their business or done in terms of roster construction makes me believe I should elevate them above this. They only just agreed on an overhauled one-year deal with by far their best defensive player, they didn’t sign their first-round pick until late July over a different contract dispute. I didn’t love how they approached the draft in general, and T.J. Slaton won’t single-handedly fix their run defense. With the inherent variance on that side of the ball, they *could* be average, combined with an elite offense, but there’s nothing for me to cling onto that would keep me from projecting a bottom-five finish yet again.
Just missed the cut: Pittsburgh Steelers (8-9) & Las Vegas Raiders (8-9)
NFC:
1. Philadelphia Eagles (13-4) 
2. Chicago Bears (12-5) 
3. San Francisco 49ers (11-6) 
4. Atlanta Falcons (10-7) 
5. Green Bay Packers (11-6) 
6. Los Angeles Rams (10-7) 
7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-8) 
There was never much question for me about who I’d have earning the NFC’s top seed. The only game the Eagles have lost since their week five bye last year came on a last-second touchdown against Washington, when Jalen Hurts was knocked out with a concussion in the first quarter. They then proceeded to blow out those same Commanders in the Conference Champion and the Chiefs in Super LIX. Assuming Landon Dickerson’s knee doesn’t flare up again, they should bring back all but one starter on the O-line, Saquon Barkley is coming off a record-setting season on the ground, and there’s reason to believe in improvements for what statistically wasn’t an average passing game, based on Hurts’ heroics in those final two matchups. Defensively, a combination of in-house talent development and cheap signings should allow Vic Fangio to at least come close to their number one ranking in DVOA last year.
Speaking of veteran defensive coordinators, I truly believe Dennis Allen taking over Chicago’s defense could remind us of who they were over the second half of 2023. They have multiple of these oversized edge players he typically covets now, and I’m optimistic last year was largely just a slight step back in the development of this young secondary (outside of long-time vet Kevin Byard). Simultaneously, I already outlined how much trust I put in the marriage between Ben Johnson and Caleb Williams, supported by a completely overhauled veteran interior O-line and an abundance of pass-catching weapons. Having the Saints and Raiders on tap, thanks to their fourth-place schedule, compared to two projected playoff teams for their division rivals, makes the difference here.
The Niners are affected in a similar way by their poor record (6-11) from this past season. On paper, they’ll face the easiest schedule in the NFL based on winning percentage of opponents (41.5%) since the 2015 Falcons – who consequently made it to the Super Bowl that year with Kyle Shanahan as their offensive coordinator. Last year was unfamiliar territory for them to a certain degree, as it felt for the first time in a while as if their highly coveted offensive play-caller didn’t truly dictate terms schematically, whereas their defensive front got pushed backwards regularly. I expect the return of 2023 Offensive Player of the Year Christian McCaffrey to make San Francisco much tougher to prepare for again, and Robert Saleh to re-invigorate a defense that just added five draft picks inside the top-120. They’re also going from the worst rest (dis)advantage league-wide (-21 days) last year to the fourth-best (+9).
Making a case for the Falcons to edge out the Bucs as NFC South champs does somewhat revolve around opponents they don’t share – Vikings, Commanders and Colts instead of Lions, Eagles and Texans – but more so the improvement I anticipate at quarterback. Kirk Cousins seemed to have a good handle of Zac Taylor’s offense for a while, but his lack of mobility coming off the torn Achilles combined with a shoulder injury he suffered later on, really tanked their production. In three starts, Michael Penix Jr. delivered seven of their completions of 20+ yards last season, and he could unlock the vertical aerial attack with those tall, talented targets, after Atlanta already led the league in rushing success rate (47.3%). The ceiling of this group will be determined by the structure Jeff Ulbrich, as the DC for Raheem Morris put in place, and what their duos of promising rookie edge rushers and safeties contribute. My one main concern since initially putting these notes together is the season-ending injury of right tackle Kaleb McGary, who was supposed to protect the new starting QB’s blindside.
To the surprise of many – considering the two remaining teams faced off in the regular season final with a chance at the conference’s number one seed at 13 wins each coming in – I ended up with the Packers as my only other squad to come out of the NFC North. This was the fourth-best offense in schedule-adjusted DVOA despite Jordan Love missing a couple of weeks and clearly being bothered by his knee for the entirety of what ended up being a down season individually. Ignoring Jaire Alexander – since he basically was injured all year anyway – the only three of 22 combined starters they swapped out are first-round pick Matthew Golden, guard Aaron Banks, who they’re paying nearly 20 million dollars for, and now a top-five defensive player in the league in Micah Parsons. I believe they’re more equipped to simplify some of the complex, aggressive defenses they’re slated to face, thanks to their own creativity in dressing up the run game, and an elite pass-rusher was the element they were missing most.
The Rams earn my second Wildcard berth, and I really wanted to buy into them even more. Matthew Stafford to me is right there at the top of that second tier of quarterbacks (after the generally accepted big four), Davante Adams is a perfect addition to that group, the O-line should hopefully be healthier and their young defensive front has the potential to take over games. Unfortunately, concerns around the veteran QB’s back may continue to linger and likely won’t get better with the punishment an NFL season brings along. Additionally, there’s plenty of room for volatility with their defensive back-seven. Ten wins for a Sean McVay-coached team with their downhill rushing attack seems about right anyway.
Finally, the Bucs do lock in that last spot in the tournament, although I project to win one fewer game than in 2024. The uncertainty around standout left tackle Tristan Wirfs, losing offensive coordinator Liam Coen, and the lack of substantial change on defense are what give me pause. I thought they put together an excellent draft. I highlighted Bucky Irving as a dark horse OPOY candidate for his production as an all-purpose player, and there’s justified optimism for some of those young defenders taking the next step. However, it’s also fair to project some regression for Baker Mayfield, coming off a season in which he threw for 41 touchdowns, and I can see some other better offenses have answers for all the fire-zone blitzes they try to throw at opponents.
Just missed the cut: Detroit Lions (9-8), Minnesota Vikings (8-9), Washington Commanders (8-9), Arizona Cardinals (8-9) & Seattle Seahawks (8-9)
Wildcard Round:
AFC:
2. Baltimore Ravens (12-5) OVER 7. Cincinnati Bengals (9-8)
3. Buffalo Bills (11-6) OVER 6. New England Patriots (10-7)
5. Denver Broncos (10-7) OVER 4. Houston Texans (10-7)
NFC:
2. Chicago Bears (12-5) OVER 7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-8)
6. Los Angeles Rams (10-7) OVER 3. San Francisco 49ers (11-6)
5. Green Bay Packers (11-6) OVER 4. Atlanta Falcons (10-7)
Divisional Round:
AFC:
1. Kansas City Chiefs (13-4) OVER 5. Denver Broncos (10-7)
2. Baltimore Ravens (12-5) OVER 3. Buffalo Bills (11-6)
NFC:
1. Philadelphia Eagles (13-4) OVER 6. Los Angeles Rams (10-7)
5. Green Bay Packers (11-6) OVER 2. Chicago Bears (12-5)
Conference Championships:
2. Baltimore Ravens (12-5) OVER 1. Kansas City Chiefs (13-4)
1. Philadelphia Eagles (13-4) OVER 5. Green Bay Packers (11-6)
Baltimore Ravens vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Looking at the path these two teams would be taking to the game’s biggest stage, this should be pretty satisfying for the Ravens in particular – deciding the season series against the Bengals in their favor, avenging their Divisional Round at Buffalo now that they’re the ones playing host (potentially with Mark Andrews catching the game-winning touchdowns) and finally slaying the dragon at Arrowhead – their place of horrors. On the flipside, the Eagles do get a week off before playing host to the Rams again, who challenged them more so than any other team at their most recent playoff quest, but they probably find more success through the air as the box is being stacked against Saquon, before going into battle with the Packers, who don’t quite have the corners to hang with that WR duo, while Philly’s tackles are able to mitigate the impact of Micah Parsons. This, by the way, is also the matchup I predicted heading into last year’s playoffs, and I at least got one half of the equation correct.
So, which path will prove more beneficial once the ball is kicked off – outdueling your biggest playoff challengers in the AFC or coming in a little fresher, as the class of the NFC? Does the one first-year coordinator, Kevin Patullo (OC, Eagles), in this face-off prove to be a slight weakness, or does it not matter thanks to the depth of talent on Philly’s roster? Ultimately, can the Eagles repeat and initiate some dynasty conversations, or does Lamar finally overcome his early playoff demons and establish his place in the pantheon of all-time greats? We’ll have to see!
Here is my full Excel sheet, predicting all 272 regular season games:
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