Unlike most weeks where one topic jumps out to me for a video or article I want to write or even there’s a point in the season where it makes sense to do power rankings or mid-season awards, there were several ways I considered going here. However, as I looked a broader view at the NFL landscape, my one grand thought I came away with is the state of affairs for the teams at the bottom of the standings and their gap to the rest of the league. In large part because I currently don’t see a path where those franchise massively turn things around and I don’t want to ignore them until draft season rolls around.

With some teams having already had a bye week, I didn’t want the cut-off to be two wins, but rather I chose to go with the nine squads at least three games below .500 – meaning 2-5 or worse. That also made sense considering the two teams that criteria excludes are the 2-4 Rams and Dolphins, whose campaigns have been heavily affected by injuries and still have some hope to turn things around.

To illustrate that rift between the franchises in question and those in legitimate position to compete for playoff spots ultimately, here’s a number to consider – and I understand of course that it has to exist for this make sense mathematically – but the nine teams I’m about to discuss have an average point differential of -53.1 for the year, meaning the median outcome for them every week is pretty much losing by just over a touchdown. I did not go back to recent years to really dive into how this stacks up, but it feels like quite an extreme line of demarcation – and that calculation includes the Saints’ clearly unsustainable start, where they led the league with a +62 point differential through the first two weeks.

So this isn’t meant to be a way for me to trash the bottom-third of the league, but rather trying take a step back and reflect on how we got here, by going through these teams. And maybe give an outlook for the near future, as we think about how things could be course-corrected.

We’ll go by record first and then alphabetical order:

 

Jacksonville Jaguars (2-5)

The first team up here actually feels furthest away from the bottom of the barrel, now that they leave the UK off a 32-16 win over the Patriots, but let’s also acknowledge that this comes at the heels of a loss to the Bears where they were actually three points worse. That was with the benefit of staying over in London between the two matchups and their star safety Andre Cisco saying he saw “a lot of quit” immediately following the initial one. Therefore, I absolutely won’t act like everything is fine, even though there are pieces that have me encouraged, because I understand that the road ahead is only getting tougher now that they’re back on US soil. Instead, I’ll provide some facts and an outlook on their future.

So it’s been a weird season for Jacksonville, where they got out to a 17-7 lead in their season-opener at Miami, only for running back Travis Etienne to fumble at the goal-line towards the end of the third quarter and from that point onwards, being outscored 158-to-96 prior to this past Sunday, with one other narrow win at home to the Joe Flacco-led Colts sprinkled in. I believe Trevor Lawrence has performed way above what his numbers might indicate this year, as drive-killing drops, red-zone issues and really a lack of creativity/purpose to the play-calling of offensive coordinator Press Taylor – something it outlined in a video during the summer, where I discussed Lawrence’s new contract. Seeing second-year RB Tank Bigsby going from a complete liability to a literal “tank” and giving them stability on the ground is a great development however, along with the rising star of rookie WR Brian Thomas Jr., making a couple of big plays every week. Meanwhile, the defense has had some bright moments, posting the third-lowest(/best) success rate against the run (33.8%) while their edge rush duo of Josh Hines-Allen and Travon Walker both rank in the top-14 league-wide in total QB pressures. Their issues have been getting caught out of position on the back-end, where their philosophy of switching between cover-one and Tampa-2 has not yielded the results they were hoping for, having allowed the second-most yards after the catch (965), which they don’t balance out by taking the ball away, where they’re tied for the second-fewest (three). Considering what they’ve consistently invested into that unit with the addition of DC Ryan Nielsen, I’ve been very disappointed that they haven’t been able to access just a competent level of play every week.

While I believe the underlying issues will continue to hamper this team and ultimately an overhaul of the coaching staff and probably also front office is on the horizon, Doug Pederson and company have enough of the pieces to steady the ship to a certain degree and make a case for why they should keep their jobs. However, that will probably take a heroic effort by the quarterback and that pass-rush, since they’re about to face the three remaining NFC North teams not named Chicago and have to go to Philadelphia over the next month, before they get to their bye week, where they can finally lick some of their wounds. In all likelihood, owner Shahid Khan will have decided to move on from the people in charge of what he called “the best team assembled” in franchise history heading into the year, by that time. Jacksonville currently sits squarely in the middle of the league when it comes to (effective) cap space over the next two seasons and I do believe that we’ll look back at Trevor’s long-term deal having benefits for their roster construction, but they desperately need to build up an offensive infrastructure that doesn’t feel as constrained and a mindset defensively, where their hustle to the ball doesn’t fall off as drastically when the success goes away. So with big money already handed out to Trevor, Josh Hines-Allen, Tyson Campbell and likely also Andre Cisco, they have the quarterback and a few legit difference-makers in place to build around, but the vision of this current regime and how they’ve communicated it to the players seemingly hasn’t worked out.

 

 

 

Las Vegas Raiders (2-5)

While they haven’t been blown out in any of their five losses necessarily, but rather saw three of those opponents more so pull away late, I do believe the temperature around this Raiders franchise continues to get worse. Following their shocking comeback win over the Ravens aided by one of their receivers basically gifting them the ball and a highly questionable defensive pass interference call, this team has felt pretty toothless. They did squeak out a win at home over the 1-6 Browns – in which they were on the right side of the whistle in a couple of big moments as well – but otherwise I didn’t think once in any of their other matchups that they were in position to actually come out on top in those second halves. In fact, if you just look at the two measures most commonly referred to as deciding factors in the outcome of games – how well you run the ball compared to your opponents and winning the turnover battle – they’re allowing a full yard more per carry (4.8 vs. 3.8) than the guys across from them and they easily have the worst turnover differential of any team in the league (-13).

Unsurprisingly based on how they chose to approach the position this past offseason, not getting consistent quarterback play has been the main storyline for this team all year long. Aidan O’Connell finally replaced Gardner Minshew towards the end of week five, but the marginal improvement he may have provided by taking better care of the ball is now gone again, when he broke his thumb less than a quarter into this previous game against the Rams. The gap to the rest of the league has shrunk a little bit, but this is still clearly the worst run game by success rate (29.8%) and EPA per play (-0.353). For what this team prided themselves on over the latter half of last season under Antonio Pierce, that simply doesn’t match, and they obviously traded away Davante Adams, leaving them with an uninspiring collection of pass-catchers outside of sensational rookie tight-end Brock Bowers. Defensively, they have been able to carry over some of the success from 2023 under coordinator Patrick Graham. I believe he deserves a lot of credit for once again keeping opponents off balance with the rolodex of coverages he calls up and how they’ve been able to overcome injuries to their front-line. Having said that, they’re on pace to end up as one of the worst tackling teams we’ve ever seen, having missed 16(!) more attempts than any other unit so far (67), and we’re seeing some regression from a couple of guys who surprisingly emerged for them over the latter half of last season.

I have been a sceptic on Las Vegas’ approach to roster construction for a while now. Them and the Saints in particular – who we’ll actually get to next – deserve consideration for a separate deep-dive in the offseason on how they’ve handled themselves as franchises. Going from the abrupt end to Jon Gruden’s second tenure with the Silver and Black, to owner Mark Davis fully embracing the New England way, when he imported head coach Josh McDaniels and general manager Dave Ziegler, and now deciding to hire Pierce following a successful 5-4 interim campaign because their stars were calling for the “player’s coach” and then hiring Tom Telesco as the guy to take control of roster management, after getting fired by their division rival Chargers – the myriad of influences on how they’ve handled themselves, in particular when it comes to personnel, I’ve just been scratching my head. Tom Brady now becoming a minority owner involved with “football operations” appears to be next odd move in line. What this boils down to for this season in particular, is the presence of massive contracts for standout veterans on a roster that otherwise shows obvious holes, and the ceiling this quarterback situation put on them, that just never felt sustainable or that would bring them rewards long-term. Pierce was a great story last year, but I’m not totally sure he isn’t losing his grasp on the locker room to some degree, in part because he was endorsed for “believing in his players”, yet in the biggest moments of their losses he’s opted to go uber-conservative and rely on the guys kicking the ball instead.

 

 

 

New Orleans Saints (2-5)

As I mentioned in the last paragraph – how Saints general manager Mickey Loomis has been able to somehow keep this operation afloat over the last decade pretty much now, rolling over money to future years, tacking on void years to big contracts and just kicking the can down the road before we one day see things combust, is something that needs to be studied. What this is all for, other than making sure than the man pulling the strings keeping his job for fielding at least a competitive squad annually, is a big piece of this discussion. However, let’s focus on the 2024 season for them now instead, which they started off looking like the hottest team in the league, blowing out the Panthers and Cowboys by a combined 62 points, before losing their next six games. Some of the façade in how this roster is constructed, with paper-thin depth, has shown up, and head coach Dennis Allen’s hot seat is really starting to heat up, considering how his defense is starting to feel apart and the general climate among the players, based on reports out there.

The reason New Orleans was such a big story to begin the year was the transformation we saw from this offense, now under the leadership of young OC Klint Kubiak. I highlighted him as one of the “most pivotal figures heading into the season” because I saw potential for this group to look a lot more dynamic with his influences from the Shanahan tree and some of the stops he had been at, in comparison to one-and-a-half decades of this static oldschool West Coast approach under Pete Carmichael. What we saw was tons of motion at the snap to give his receivers leverage advantage, a heavy rate of (early down) play-action and Derek Carr being encouraged to push the ball down the field without having to fully scan the field. Be that as it may, they were always walking a narrow line with an offensive line that was already a major question mark coming into the year. That unit was a massive factor in their early success, but when they started getting banged up, things started to crumble around it, with Carr look like his old self under pressure and working from defined dropback settings, as he is still bound to miss at least some time, while one of the league’s premier deep threats in Rashid Shaheed is out for the year. On the defensive side, we’ve finally arrived at a stage where all of these aging veterans are taking a step back collectively, but while there are some bright moments from these younger generation of guys (Alontae Taylor most notably), this group simply has no appetite for tackling. Missed assignments, where nobody picks up guys in the flats and they run for 40 yards are a major factor in this, but they’re not only tied for the highest yards-per-carry mark allowed (5.4 YPC) without stout bodies on the interior, but they’ve allowed nearly 200(!) more yards after the catch so far than anybody else (1140).

It’s somewhat unclear where this all leads us and what this ownership group of the Bensons chooses to do, considering how much they’ve been hands-off with allowing Loomis, previously Sean Payton and even until the hiring of Kubiak, two long-time stalwart coordinators to run the show without really interfering. We might’ve reached a point where that changes, as they realize it’s time to really overhaul the structure of the organization, live with the reality of being one of the worst rosters for a year or two as you acquire a strategy for healthy roster management, and then be at point with draft capital and financial resource to actually build another winner. To me, at 2-5 there’s zero reason to plug Carr back in with the injuries along the offense and cost yourself a chance to evaluate what Spencer Rattler could be in this league – who has shown flashes, but has always had a propensity of being his own worst enemy when he’s trying to give his team a spark. Why they restructured that deal is another piece in a long line of questions, but he’s far from the only one I believe they should cut bait with for the greater good of welcoming a new era of Saints football down the road.

 

 

 

New York Giants (2-5)

The two teams from the Big Apple wrap up our two-win portion of the list, and for the Giants specifically, this was always much more in-line with what was expected for this group coming into the year. Losing by three touchdowns at home to the Vikings in their season-opener now doesn’t nearly look as bad, considering what they’ve done to some of the best groups in the league and that they were a field goal away from sitting at a perfect 6-0 still. Big Blue won at Cleveland and at Seattle, while every other loss could’ve gone the other way, if they executed better down the stretch, offensively in particular. That was until they got their teeth kicked in by the Eagles at home this past Sunday (28-3), which I’m sure is especially gut-wrenching for John Mara and the entire fanbase, seeing Saquon Barkley go off for nearly 200 total yards. Especially when that comes on the same day as them (quasi-)benching quarterback Daniel Jones, who hasn’t thrown a touchdown at MetLife stadium since the calendar year 2022.

I’ll start with the defense here, because prior to this most recent showing to some degree, this was a unit to legitimately get excited about. Right in the middle of it all, Dexter Lawrence may be the most insane defender in the league right now. As I primary nose-tackle, who has been double-teamed on 63.3% of his pass rushes this season – highest of any player in the Next Gen era (since 2018) – he is number one across all positions with nine sacks. The addition of Brian Burns off the edge is really starting to pay off, they’ve got some other lesser-known names up front contribute quality play, they’ve got a couple of impact rookie starters in the secondary and Shane Bowen has gotten the most out of this group. With that in mind, the offense simply hasn’t been inspiring really at any point, outside of a 175-yard rushing day against a decimated Seahawks defense. The quarterback play simply isn’t going to elevate an average at best supporting cast. Jones is on pace for his fourth straight season with (definitively) more turnover-worthy plays than big-time throws (49 vs. 25 over that stretch) and there’s no vertical component to this aerial attack, as he’s gone 5-of-22 for 163 yards with one touchdown and interception each on attempts of 20+ yards. Now, I will say that this is the best offensive line we’ve seen in New York probably since they moved on from Eli Manning, and when they now have both of their standout rookies in Malik Nabers and Tyrone Tracy on the field, that’s a duo that could be really exciting for the future and raise the ceiling of this unit. It’s just clear that they need that individual brilliance in order to be viable.

So where that leaves them is exactly what the big discussion was two offseasons ago, when general manager Joe Schoen committed himself to the quarterback over the next four years at 40 million dollars per – which may seem more feasible by today’s standards, but puts him at the second-highest cap hit league-wide for 2024. Even if this was just a short-term decision with Drew Lock coming in as a replacement this past Sunday, I’d think this group has to take the out in Jones’ deal, which leaves them with a dead cap hit of 22.2 million, and if there’s someone they like, they’ll draft someone in the top-ten or so. When All-Pro left tackle Andrew Thomas returns from his season-ending foot injury, I think bringing back all five starters on the O-line, there’s some good stuff to build around. Otherwise, they need one more guy that can really threaten the defense on the perimeter, and then the counter-piece to that on defense with an outside corner. So Giants fans may not want to hear this, after just watching a beloved player in Saquon come back “home” to destroy them as part of their hated division rivals, but this is a situation where getting “the guy” under center along with those couple of extra pieces could quickly make them relevant again and you may not want to make any grand changes to who oversees this whole operation.

 

 

 

New York Jets (2-5)

Now, looking at the other squad from the city that never sleeps, they’ve had their fans up at night all season long, whether it was because they were actually on primetime or thanks to the circus that has been going on for the most part. The 49ers clearly looked like they were in a different class in the opening Monday Night game, coming off a Super Bowl appearance – which was to be expected to a certain degree. Yet, then they win a close game at Tennessee and handle the seemingly hapless Patriots at home on a short week, to give Gang Green supporters new hope. Only from that point onwards, they’ve now lost four straight games, with either the offense or defense not performing up to par in the first three of those, before the team as a whole simply showed no life over the second half plus a couple of extra minutes this past Sunday Night at Pittsburgh, after they had already fired their head coach Robert Saleh and then finalized the imminent trade for Davante Adams.

There’s no way around the fact that this Jets offense has failed to meet expectations. On any given day, one of their skill-position players might have a blow-up game like Breece Hall, Garrett Wilson or even Allen Lazard(?). With that in mind, that Thursday Night showcase against the Patriots is really the only time this has felt like a cohesive unit, and individual mistakes or bad snaps have ruined things for them. There is no way Breece should be averaging 9.7 yards per carry, especially with some of the open-field skills we just saw from him after the catch, and the Davante addition shouldn’t be viewed as an invitation to go back to what we’ve seen for the most part in terms of a static, timing-based offense that is easy to predict, when there were positive signs in their first outing without Nathaniel Hackett in charge of calling plays. Tyron Smith has his moments of looking like he’s 100 years old with edge rushers going around him and the center of it all is the puppet master Aaron Rodgers. As brilliant as he’s been throughout his career and the redeeming qualities he still brings to the table, unless he’s willing to adapt new answers for how to defeat pressure, embrace more motion and take advantage of opportunities to attack down the field, this group isn’t going anywhere. Matters are made infinitely worse by the decline of a defense that even with how little help they received from the other side of the ball last year, finished top three in 2023 among the three major categories – DVOA, success rate and EPA per play. Their interior D-line consistently is getting blown off the ball in the run game, they really needed to resolve the Haason Reddick situation, since Will McDonald was the only guy to get to the quarterback, and their guys on the back-end need to get hands on more passes (two interceptions so far) than the receivers they’re facing, as they’re only five yards away from the high mark in penalty yardage surrendered (439).

This feels like we’ve reached a point of desperation with a Jets team that once again had such high hopes coming into the year. Connor Rogers put it best on SNY following their deflating loss at Pittsburgh, when he said that everybody looked at Aaron as savior once he started to practice again late last year and while he hasn’t performed up to his MVP-like standards, it’s everybody else around him not being locked in on maintaining their level of play. And what’s funny to me is how every week, it’s been a similar conversation, where they lose to the Vikings but they make a change at head coach, then they lose to the Bills but the offense looks better and they make the trade for Adams. And there are positives to take away outside of what how they allowed the Steelers to dominate the final 32 minutes this past Sunday Night, but they need to wake up right because, because they’ll need to win AT LEAST seven of the final ten games now if they want to sneak into the playoffs – they have all the talent in the world to get there, if they maybe bring in one more run-stopper on the D-line.

 

 

 

Tennessee Titans (1-5)

Moving on to the one-win teams, the Titans are half a game up theoretically on the three teams below them, but they really don’t feel like they should be here altogether. Ultimately you are what your record says you are and they can only blame themselves for being down here, but they could easily be here 4-3 right now. They were up 17-3 on the Bears in the season-opener before having a punt blocked and returned for a touchdown, along with Will Levis’ first meme-able moment, where an underhand flip set up a pick-six. Then a week later, they’re up 7-0 on the Jets and in a goal-to-go situation, he tries to later a pass as he’s getting sacked, which is recovered by the defense, and then they have another punt blocked. Leading the Colts 17-13 off their bye week, they allow Michael Pittman Jr. to come down with a jump-ball in the end-zone on a third-and-goal, after it was reported that he might have to go on IR all week long, and they can’t get into field goal range on any of their final three drives. And even this past week, what the final score won’t tell you is that they were up 10-7 at halftime over the Bills and on the next drive, they have a run stuffed for a three-yard loss gambling to go for it on fourth down near midfield, which kickstarts a 27-0 run for Buffalo the rest of the way.

As you can probably decipher from my recap on how Tennessee’s season has gone and how four of their five losses could’ve easily gone the other way, the quarterback has had his hands in a few of those catastrophic moments – which his head coach Brian Callahan has been quick to point out. Yet, we saw this in their most recent outing, plugging in Mason Rudolph instead, you’re just really limiting the ways you can challenge defenses through the air. The ground game has been solid, which Levis has been a nice piece for, as long as you limit the amount of times he lowers his shoulders into a linebacker. They simply don’t have anybody to consistently scare the defense about getting beat over the top, they need more easy answers on third downs, where they’re tied for the fourth-worst efficiency (31.1% conversion rate), and the fact that Calvin Ridley has caught just a third of the targets his way says less about his qualities as a player, when you actually go through them. The shortcomings of this offense and their special teams issues (27th and 32nd respectively in DVOA), are particularly unfortunate when you consider how good the Titans have been defensively. Giving up 27 points to the Bills in the second half just now, when they were constantly on the field, did put them just outside the top-10 in the metric I just referenced, but that unit had previously given up just eight total touchdowns through five games. The interior of Jeffery Simmons and the massive rookie T’Vondre Sweat has consistently been re-setting the line of scrimmage, some of their other young players on the back-end have stepped up and DC Dennard Wilson has been throwing the kitchen sink at opponents in obvious passing situations with exotic pressure packages, allowing them to hold opponents to the fifth-lowest third-down success rate (31.6%). And they’ve performed this well despite trade addition L’Jarius Sneed having gone from All Pro-level to one of the worst corners in the league so far (117th among 118 CBs with 100+ snaps in PFF grade) and being tied for the second-fewest takeaways league-wide (three).

Where this team has building blocks and where they need better production from is very clear. I still believe a healthy, but somewhat reigned in Levis – not the version that was hesitant to pull the trigger against the Colts off their bye week – can make this team be a pain in the butt for opponents. Nonetheless, a trip to Detroit is at hand this weekend and unless they can shock what looks to be the strongest force in the NFC right now, Tennessee will be almost be mathematically eliminated from playoff contention, sitting at 1-6. I don’t see any real upside long-term to starting Rudolph under center, but being such clear buyers during the offseason hasn’t allowed for the quick turnaround they were hoping for. What those contracts may mean for how they continue to build isn’t yet clear, but at this point, you may want to sell a DeAndre Hopkins at the deadline – which they ended up doing basically at the same time as I wrote this – and ride this thing out for 2024, before you decide which steps to take next.

 

 

 

Carolina Panthers (1-6)

This brings us to the three teams that have already practically been eliminated, and if this was more of a power rankings format, the embarrassment of this most recent showing for Carolina would put them at the bottom of the list, potentially with a line of demarcation to the rest of the league. A two-touchdown win over the Raiders back in week three, when they seemed to have some new life with the insertion of veteran quarterback Andy Dalton, has clouded our view on this team a little bit, because otherwise they’ve been an utter catastrophe. Obviously, their net point differential of -133 is basically the same as if you combined the tallies for the two next-closest teams, but it’s the consistency of poor performances that truly resonates with me. A 34-24 loss at home to the Bengals, who were still figuring themselves out at that point, is the only defeat by less than 23(!) points the rest of the way. Before Panthers fans just stop reading, I will say that there is some reason for optimism for the future, which I’ll get to at the end here, but it’s rare to have such a badly lost season seven weeks already.

Somewhat thankfully, Carolina never gave their fans false hope once toe met ball, as they got blown out the Saints in their opener and then more so slowly got grounded into fine dust by the Chargers the next week. The disappointing part here of course if the role last year’s first overall pick Bryce Young played in this, who simply didn’t look like a quarterback capable of starting in the NFL through two weeks and quickly had the trigger pulled on him moving to the bench. Exploding for 36 points the following outing with Dalton showed that they’re pass-protection and run game were actually definitive pluses compared to the year prior, but Diontae Johnson winning his fair share of one-on-one has been the only constant ever since. Looking at what his successor in Tampa Bay has been able to do with that group and some of the schematic shortcomings we still see for the Panthers, we might’ve been too quick to anoint Dave Canales as the next “big thing” as an offensive play-caller, while Dalton is showing why he hasn’t begun a season as the starter since 2019 in Cincinnati. Losing their starting center Austin Corbett has also hurt. Yet, the injuries on the defensive side have compounded their issues even more intensely. Carolina at best already only had one legit blue-chip player on that unit to begin with and even what would be the four most recognizable names to the general public – Derrick Brown, Shaq Thompson and Jadeveon Clowney are all on IR with just over 500 total snaps combined, while Jaycee Horn has already given up three touchdowns and been flagged for pass interference four times. Only the Jaguars have been worse in terms of DVOA and EPA per play allowed collectively.

I believe the resources this team threw at the offense, in order to salvage the Bryce Young pick, has set the table for a defensive season from hell, where a couple of injuries really led to the bottom dropping out. I had been a fan of what coordinator Ejiro Evero had gotten out of that group previously, but with how quick owner Dave Tepper has been to turn things over to a new regime, it’s hard to envision a world where the DC sticks around for another head coach. And for as uninspiring as the offense has been, you have to question how attractive this destination is for anybody looking for their first shot at running the show. So – as promised at the top – here is what I believe a path forward could look like: For the immediate future, you throw Bryce Young back out there and see if he at all can be part of your plans – even if it’s just as a backup – after getting a chance to see things from a different angle. You hire a proven head coach to help you navigate through an overhaul of the roster. Any veteran signings you make have to be short-term and to aid the development of the new batch of young talent. And if there’s no quarterback you love, you sell what’ll most likely be a top-two pick – which this time around, actually belongs to you – for future draft capital, in case you need it for the 2026 class, or even better yet, since you’ll probably pick up high again, be able to support your guy of the future. This of course requires patience by the owner, who at best sells the franchise again in the meantime.

 

 

 

Cleveland Browns (1-6)

Going from the worst to probably the saddest franchise and fanbase in the NFL, you wouldn’t think that’s the case based on the reactions when Deshaun Watson was carted off with what was later confirmed to be a ruptured Achilles. While I have a complicated relationship with seeing anybody carted off the field with a major injury, having ended my (recreational) football career following my second torn ACL, I can’t blame anybody for feeling relieved about what this means for the future of this operation potentially – we’ll get to that at the end. For now, we do have to acknowledge that Cleveland’s lone win came to the Jaguars, who at that point looked to be in contention for the worst team in the league, while they got blown out at home by the Cowboys in week one and lost to three other below-.500 teams in the Giants, Raiders and Bengals.

Of course, the quarterback spot and offense overall has been the main theme here, as they rank dead-last with room to spare in schedule-adjusted DVOA on that side of the ball. The inability to really see the field and manage the pocket by Deshaun compounded some of the issues they’ve had among their receiving corp and a rotating door at both tackle spots. However, they’ve also posted the third-lowest rushing success rate (34.3%) in the league, and because they’re constantly behind the sticks, averaging an NFL-worst 4.0 yards per play, they’ve also picked up third downs at the lowest rate (23.7%). Trying to merge what made Kevin Stefanski’s offense one of the most effective at running the ball and calling up bootlegs with the ideas of Ken Dorsey for more a spread-oriented attack, where they put their QB in the shotgun and give him space to work with, clearly has been a failed experiment. There could certainly be other issues that arise from more high-variance ball by expected starter Jameis Winston, but I could see them go back to leaning more into what made Joe Flacco the 2023 Comeback Player of the Year, where they condense formation and take shots off play-action, especially now that they have all-world running back Nick Chubb back, coming off a devastating knee injury. What has been even more disappointing for me personally though, is the regression of what was a top-two defense in the league in pretty much any meaningful measure you want to look at. They’re currently dead-average in both DVOA and EPA per play despite no glaring injury problems. Their excellent corner group from last year has simply taken a step back collectively, they haven’t been as dominant on early downs to set up those opportunities to get home for that pass-rush, and DC Jim Schwartz has been unwilling to get out of those predictable single-high looks (on just over 75% of snaps leading into week seven). Therefore, seeing them bail out some of those mugged-up looks to play zone coverage behind it and changing things up a little bit this past Sunday against the Bengals was a welcome step.

While seeing guys like third-year corner Martin Emerson be much more vulnerable in isolated situations has you questioning his growth, generally I believe this unit still has pretty much all the pieces to at least be a definitive plus. I’d like to be able to say the same about their offensive line, which when healthy has a strong case for the best interior-three outside of Kansas City, but especially on the edges, they’re just constantly banged up. Trading away Amari Cooper certainly downgrades the receiving corp to some degree, but it made sense to be sellers at this point, and this opens up an opportunity for last year’s third-round pick Cedric Tillman to get onto the field as a more traditional X receiver. How much more willing they should be to move on from veteran pieces is strongly connected to their future plans at quarterback. As oppressive as that fully-guaranteed Watson deal has been, the fact that they have insurance for most of his 2025 salary, could allow them to just keep him on IR all season with some potential “setbacks” in his recovery, and give them massive cap relief for ’26. After that, they could cut him, eat the dead cap hit and re-start on the rookie timeline with some limitations, when they draft a guy they like up high next year. That’s still not a great situation, but look at where Denver is at right now, who have dealt with similar circumstances.

 

 

 

New England Patriots (1-6)

We’ve reached the bottom of the list. And while many long-time Patriots fans obviously won’t be satisfied with the current state of this franchise, following two decades of being the standard of the NFL, but they already have a promising rookie quarterback in place, and people who are realistic with themselves about which timeline they’re currently operating on, there are absolutely things to get excited about. Reflecting on the season that has been, winning 16-10 at Cincinnati in the opener was a shocker at the time, but unfortunately a false indicator of things to come. They lost to the Seahawks on a field goal in overtime the following week and since have by beat by 16+ points in all but one contest, against the Tyler Huntley-led Dolphins, where an odd quirk in the rules, about what constitutes a foot vs. a heel being in bounds, cost them a late touchdown. Coming off their most recent defeat to Jaguars in London, head coach Jerod Mayo said that they’re a “soft football team” right now and they certainly need to change things up to some degree going forward.

Coming into the year, we were fully aware of what the support system for any quarterback looked like in New England, and even though the two were basically even for most of training camp according to Mayo, they went with Jacoby Brissett over rookie Drake Maye. The main piece of this – along with a general old-school mindset of getting the nod to veterans – was being more comfortable with him behind a replacement level offensive line outside of one spot, throwing to a lackluster collection of pass-catchers. Since inserting Maye however, a lot of those issues haven’t quite vanished, but they’ve certainly been less prevalent, with the dimension he offers moving in and out of the pocket, and throws that challenge the structure of defenses. It hasn’t perfect by any means, but the flashes have been very encouraging, going from 27^th to 19^th in dropback success rate from the first five to the latter two weeks. Their early second-round pick Ja’Lynn Polk has unfortunately been a disaster, with his biggest strengths in college looking like the exact opposite, but even if he turns things around, I believe they still need that ace receiver, who can win isolated on the backside of the formation. Defensively, being on the field as much as they’ve been and having to carry the load, has started to take its toll. Adjusting for schedule, they’ve been about an average group (15^th in DVOA), but the interior is where they’ve really felt two key injuries – Ja’Whaun Bentley as a thumping linebacker against the run and Christian Barmore as a TFL creator and their one consistent force rushing the passer. I do believe they should be optimistic with those young corners and especially the development of Keion White, who at 6’5”, 285 pounds can basically line anywhere in the front-seven and wreak havoc.

So as you can probably take away from my tone, I believe there are building blocks than you might expect from a team that has now lost six straight games. If they can get the run game cranked up again with a healthy Rhamondre Stevenson, this offense could be more than just competent, with how different things have felt these last two weeks already. And when they have all the parts available, without being relied on as much, the growth of their young guys combined with the way they play team defense, should lead to results much closer to what we saw from an almost identical set of names still coached by the same man in charge. Although I hope Mayo isn’t talking himself out of the job with how blunt he’s been to the media compared to his predecessor especially, I don’t believe this operation should measure success purely by win-loss record in 2024. They do have some winnable games coming up, with the 4-2 Bears being the best team they’re slated to face until their week 14 bye, but if they end up with another top-three pick ultimately, that may give them the choice between their top-ranked tackle or wide receiver, which are the two positions they should absolutely prioritize. My belief is certainly rooted in my evaluation of the quarterback, but patience is the important virtue here, Pats fans.