The final week of the 2025/26 regular season is upon us, and there’s a lot to still be decided as we think ahead to the NFL playoffs. Instead of previewing one of these games in detail, I decided to map out *how* you should schedule your weekend to keep up with all the action.
So obviously the stand-alone games are part of that, but I’ll also tell how you might want your quad box to look like – or if you even really need one. More importantly, for those three division-deciding matchups, I will share the key element(s) to pay attention to either side of the ball, including personnel/situational tendencies, how to attack their opponents, and what we can learn from they met the first time. Plus, I simply added a final score prediction for every game.
Let’s get into the slate:
Saturday 4:30 pm ET – Carolina Panthers (8-8) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-9):
Why you should watch? – This is one of those three divisional matchups I already referenced, that will decide who ends up hosting (at least one) playoff game. However, while the implications of this game are as high as any, considering the Bucs would be knocked out altogether, after they started the season off with a 5-1 record, the circumstances aren’t nearly as clean as the others. Somehow, now the Saints-Falcons collision – two teams that were both eliminated about a month ago themselves – could end up pushing the Panthers to the top of the table despite a potential loss, thanks to a head-to-head tiebreaker in a scenario where three NFC South teams would be tied with an 8-9 record. Either way, we could see Carolina or Tampa Bay enter the rare club of division winners with a below-.500 record. The Panthers have put together on of the crazier rollercoaster season I can ever remember, as a win on Sunday would put them at ten straight games of alternating wins and losses, beating then-number one seeds in the Packers and Rams, but also getting swept by the Saints and having a few embarrassing showings. Meanwhile, the Bucs started off the first-and-a-half months of the year as hot as anyone, but injuries have crippled their offense for large stretches, while their defense has completely deteriorated. Yet, if they take care of business and get help from New Orleans on Sunday, they may be able to salvage things to some degree, and potentially host a 13-win Seahawks team in the Wildcard Round. We just saw these two sides face off two weeks ago in Carolina, when the Panthers were able to escape with a 23-20 win despite losing the statistical battle pretty much across the board, thanks to timely plays on both sides of the ball, including a game-sealing interception by rookie safety Lathan Ransom.
What to watch for? – Nobody really anticipated the “other” NFC South matchup to have any bearing on who’ll win the division, but we pretty much knew that the Panthers and Bucs meeting twice in the final three weeks would likely decide it. Due to that set-up, we have a pretty clear image of what this rematch *could* look like. Tampa’s offense came out hot to start both halves, as they scored a touchdown and field goal on those respective first two drives, followed up by a couple of three-and-outs and a punt plus an interception respectively. Emeka Egbuka’s lone 40-yard catch on a bender (on two targets) provided the only explosive through the air (second-longest reception was for just 13 yards), while they otherwise heavily relied upon screens and throws between the numbers, trying to put zone defenders into conflict, especially out of stacks/bunches. It never felt like the Bucs could actually threaten Carolina outside the numbers and they’ll need to take a few shots in order for the middle of the field to not field as clogged up once again. You saw Baker Mayfield double-clutching on several occasions and although the game-sealing interception was more so a result of miscommunication between him and Mike Evans, as I highlighted in an article last week (LINK !!), no defenses disguise what coverage they’re in at a higher rate (around 45%). From a pressure perspective, the Panthers only recorded two sacks on the day – which is in-line with their full season pace – but they both have came on third downs with exotic blitzes including crossing action. The Bucs found very little success on zone runs, particularly out of 11 personnel. Carolina’s edge defenders did an excellent job as the game went along of either funneling the ball back inside or spilling it out wide by wrong-shouldering pullers. Rachaad White’s 39-yard rip came out of a two-TE set, where they wound on a counter-style run, and otherwise it was a pair of 20+ yard scrambles by Baker that really kept them alive.
Looking at the Panthers offense, they didn’t nearly control the clock or even really tried to stick to their typical game script, which has helped them pull a few major upsets this season. Rico Dowdle and Chuba Hubbard combined for just 15 total carries, worth 56 yards. Because Carolina put three wide receivers on the field for nearly three quarters of snaps, the Bucs matched with nickel pretty much all day long. The key piece of the puzzle to me was and will once again be how rookie wideout Tetairoa McMillan will be treated. He was regularly isolated on the backside of the formation as their X-receiver, and either the Bucs tried to disrupt him at the line of scrimmage with press-man to his side, or they’d cloud a safety over the top once the ball was snapped, to make Bryce Young come off him. However, he ended up catching six of ten targets for 73 yards on the day, and I’d advise them to maybe lean even more into deploying him in the slot, either by spreading out the formation or changing up the look through late motion, to provide him space. The one time the Bucs actually blitzed Antoine Winfield Jr. from the boundary and caught Jamel Dean playing off, Bryce threw the fade for a touchdown with seconds left before halftime. Generally, those corners were heavily playing for back-shoulder throws and I think you want to loft it over their head a few times, including in the direction of Jalen Coker. For as tremendous as Lavonte David’s career has been, you can certainly put these linebackers into conflict as coverage defenders, including with your running backs, which they’ve easily allowed the most receiving yards to per game (52.1 YPG) as a position group. Looking at how much Todd Bowles blitzes dependent on game situation, he wants to push back offenses on first downs and when they get to second-and-short, but are closer to average on third downs. They still heavily rely upon those 3-3-fire zones, where the timing of allowing patterns to develop and punishing them for having one few defender in coverage will be crucial.
Final score: Panthers 23 – 20 Buccaneers
Saturday 8:00 pm ET – Seattle Seahawks (13-3) @ San Francisco 49ers (12-4):
Why you should watch? – On the flipside of whoever ends up winning the lowly NFC South almost by default, this Saturday Night affair will decide not only who wins one of the strongest divisions in recent memory (removing the Cardinals from the equation), but also who ends up as the conference’s number one overall seed. Having to travel to the Pacfic Northwest may not have the same level of mystique as it has at times in the past, as Seattle actually has been even better on the road this season (7-1 vs. a 6-2 home record). Still, with the history of “The 12s” creating literal earthquakes in that stadium, making noise for a defense that has made as many big plays this season as any, with all the exotic looks they throw at opponents, could be a nightmare for opposing quarterbacks. Opposed to that would be a situation where if the Niners are able to make a run all the way to Super Bowl 60, they wouldn’t have to leave Santa Clara at all, as Levis’ stadium will play host on February 8th. For a team that lost two perennial All-Pro defenders in Nick Bosa and Fred Warner, never got Brandon Aiyuk onto the field and was dealing with a myriad of other key offensive contributors missing time, to accomplish that, would be incredible. Personally, I think Kyle Shanahan should probably have wrapped up Coach of the Year honors already, but this would all but secure it, unless Mike Macdonald can still rip it away, along with homefield advantage in the NFC. We arguably get the premier offensive and defensive play-callers respectively, the two favorite for Offensive Player of the Year trying to outduel the other, and the latest iteration of a rivalry that has remained fiery throughout numerous changes at quarterbacks and among those coaching staffs.
What to watch for? – In three games since their bye week, the Niners have scored a combined 127 points and nobody has posted a higher EPA per play mark over that stretch (0.310). Although they were missing tight-end George Kittle in their Sunday Night shootout against the Bears, they’ve typically been as healthy as recently as they have been all year long, and you can feel that in how much they can dictate terms to opponents again. Kyle Shanahan has always been a master at commanding space and stressing defenses with how patterns develop. Where he’s taken the next step, as they’ve continued to become more of a true dropback team, is how he utilizes motion at the snap to create cleaner picture, and now with their full cast of characters back, they’re a nightmare to deal with when getting all five eligibles out in the route. Christian McCaffrey’s versatility is a key ingredient in this, while a healthy Ricky Pearsall offers the most route-running excellence when isolated. On top of the schematic advantages they create, for as well as Mac Jones executed that attack, having Brock Purdy’s out-of-structure play-making bails them out on a handful of plays where the defense wins. On that point, the Seahawks defense has gotten the better of their opponents for most of this year, as it’s them and the Texans respectively battling for the top spot in both EPA per play and schedule-adjusted DVOA. The beauty in how they can counterbalance all the different things offense try to throw at them is having a defensive line that can take over games, and a rookie that has made them extremely malleable. Since Nick Emmanwori returned from a one-month absence to start the year, Seattle has been on an even better pace statistically, and it’s simplified things on their end, as only the Niners, funnily enough, have been in nickel personnel at a higher rate for the year (76.6% – “big nickel” in their case). Considering San Francisco has been as effective running the ball out of 21 personnel in recent years, the Hawks’ allowing a rushing success rate of just 31.2% on those will definitely be a challenge. The few times they were actually able to get something going on the ground, they attacked the edges on toss plays especially, and their wide receivers will need to have their best days as blockers, to help capture that corner, which they’ve really been factors in getting that area cranked up recently. Purdy did throw a couple of bad picks back in that season opener, by the way, where he flat-out missed an underneath zone defender on each.
As we switch over to Seattle, their offense has been one of the major surprises of this season. Even with their 13-point showing in week one against these Niners, only the third NFC West contender in the Rams has averaged more points per game overall (29.7 PPG). The ascent of Jaxon Smith-Njigba to a superstar receiver – which he showed right away in that season-opener with 124 yards on nine catches – has gone hand-in-hand with this becoming one of the league’s most explosive aerial forces. Sam Darnold is tied with Dak Prescott for an NFL-high 12 completions of 40+ yards, yet he’s done it on 152(!) fewer pass dropbacks. Although the Seahawks have run the ball at the third-highest rate in the league (49.4%), that’s more a result of playing with the lead for the most part, as well as using it in service of their play-action attack. For as much as they’ve tapped into bootlegs and longer-developing plays down the field, offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak’s zone based run game has beard more fruits recently, which has coincided with San Francisco’s struggles in that area. According to Sumer Brain’s data, over the past four games, they’ve surrendered a whooping 0.381 EPA/play on all zone-based runs (which would be three times worse than the league’s bottom-ranked run defense overall), while Seattle has averaged 0.178 EPA on such play, with the aiming point being more oriented inside. If they can’t reverse that trend to some degree and play-action becomes a big part of the game plan, I’d be pretty worried. Robert Saleh’s group has recorded eight fewer sacks than any other team in the league (18) so far, and when you look at the nature of how those have come, you really notice who’s missing. Nick Bosa having torn his ACL already in December has left them without that alpha pass-rusher who can get quick wins, while the lack of presence of Fred Warner over the middle of the field and for a defense that relies as much on match principles as many (cover-four or -six), doesn’t force quarterbacks to hold onto the ball for as long. I could see Kubiak tap more into something they’ve done a handful of times with JSN lining up in the backfield and really target those backups on the second level.
Final score: Seahawks 24 – 23 49ers
Sunday 1:00 pm ET:
I’m not going to act like either the early nor the mid-day Sunday slate is loaded with big-time duels, and the relevance of some of these are dependent on what else is going around the league, but the NFL did put two concurrent divisional matchups into either time slot, where a win and loss respectively could still flip who’ll be hosting a playoff game the following week on one side, and the Bills potentially ending up with any of the three Wildcard berths on the other. Also, one other divisional matchup could end up deciding the NFC South winner, dependent on Saturday’s outcome, and the Lions still have a to chance to mess up the Bears’ seeding.
New Orleans Saints (6-10) @ Atlanta Falcons (7-9):
Why you should watch? – Again, the gravity of this matchup for the NFC at large is fully dependent on what happens Saturday 4:30 pm ET. If the Panthers take care of business themselves, the Bucs would be eliminated and this is largely about which of these sides can finish their season on a high note. While expectations definitely were a lot higher for Atlanta, as I projected them to be in a neck-and-neck race with Tampa for the division crown at this point, suffering their ninth less a week into December eliminated that possibility pretty early. Yet, now they’ve won three straight against those Bucs, the Cardinals and the Rams, scoring at least 26 points in each of those games – a feat they had previously accomplished just twice through the first 13 weeks. New Orleans on the other end has been riding a win streak for a full month already and could make it a sweep in the second round against their NFC South foes with another victory on Sunday in the ATL. Since the Falcons don’t own their first-round pick in late April due to the trade-up for James Pearce in this past draft, they wouldn’t benefit a whole lot from sitting any critical starters, and the Saints probably aren’t as concerned about where their selection ends up being, because I’d be shocked if they were looking at the quarterback market whatsoever. Tyler Shough’s performance, since replacing Spencer Rattler in the starting lineup, is the one big reason you should tune into this contest regardless of any other factors. Unless Tetairoa McMillan goes off for the Panthers in a division-clinching win the day before, this will likely be your Offensive Rookie of the Year, having led the Saints to a 5-3 record, while the rest of the squad has stepped up around him, as the defense ranks second(!) in EPA per play since week ten. This is a chance to get eyes on Shough, if you haven’t really been paying attention, and Bijan Robinson comes in with three straight games of over 160 scrimmage yards as well, as the Falcons are coming off a massive upset win over the previous Super Bowl favorites in the Rams.
Final score: Saints 21 – 20 Falcons
Indianapolis Colts (8-8) @ Houston Texans (11-5):
Why you should watch? – These next two matchups should be observed simultaneously, as I’ve already mentioned, since there’s still a chance we see the AFC South get flipped around. That would be the case if the Texans take care of business against a Colts team likely led by sixth-round rookie Riley Leonard making his first career start, and the Jaguars slip up against a Titans group, that has earned two of three wins on the year over this past month, and is led by the first overall pick at quarterback. Considering Jacksonville are 11.5-point home favorites at the time of me writing this, it may ultimately be irrelevant, but I’m all for some drama in this early window. For the Colts, this has to feel like a lost season that completely got away from them. Following an 8-2 start, in which their offense was on a record-breaking pace of efficiency, they’ve come back from their trip to Germany and have yet to add to the left side of their record since that week 11 bye. Losing Daniel Jones to a torn Achilles and his availability for the next season opener being up in the air is only compounded by the fact that they made a “win-now” move when they traded two(!) first-round picks in exchange for cornerback Sauce Gardner. I questioned it at the time, but now this feels completely misguided, and they kind of locked themselves in at quarterback, without that draft capital. By moving those picks to the Jets, even if they’re sending Philip Rivers back to his extended family, finishing the season on a high note is still a priority. Opposed to that, Houston are now winners of eight straight and somehow have the division crown in their sights, despite being five wins behind Indy at the time they began that streak. Even if the score doesn’t end up being close, this Texans pass rush could put the rookie in hell, while he’ll try to find some success with his legs against that man-heavy unit.
Final score: Texans 26 – 14 Colts
Tennessee Titans (3-13) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (12-4):
Why you should watch? – In the second half of this AFC foursome, we have a Titans team that suddenly has a little bit of juice and the Liam Coen-led Jags that have already tripled their win total from last year, with a (very) outside chance of somehow still earning the AFC’s number one seed. That scenario would involve both the Broncos and Patriots stumbling against backup quarterbacks for teams without really anything to play for, but it speaks to how much Jacksonville has turned things around under new leadership. Across from them is a group in Tennessee whose only win over their first 12 games came at Arizona, where it took a total brainfart moment by running back Emari Demarcado on a breakaway run that would’ve put them up by three touchdowns, along with a few other insane moments, to fuel their comeback. Prior to winning two of their last four matchups, they had a point differential of -148, but their offense has finally come alive, scoring at least 24 points in each of those meetings over the last month – something they had only done once all season, ironically against the Seahawks, although it took a punt return being taken to the house. While Coen hasset the table for Trevor Lawrence to turn things around over the course of their active seven-game win streak, by helping him operate with a lot more confidence (as I outlined in an article last week – LINK !!), Cam Ward has received some more help from the run game, while limiting the catastrophic plays on his end, to go with those flashes of brilliance, that serve as a reminder for why he was the first name off the board last April – even if he was the least discussed QB to go at that spot maybe ever, it felt like. Despite some doubt by the general public about this early on, we get to watch the guys leading these two franchises for the foreseeable future, and the Titans with a chance to play spoiler here.
Final score: Jaguars 31 – 17 Titans
Sunday 4:25pm ET:
New York Jets (3-13) @ Buffalo Bills (11-5):
Why you should watch? – As we move on to the mid-day slate, there was potential for the exact same set-up to decide the AFC East and potentially the number two/three seed as we now have in the South, but Josh Allen missing his receiver on a would-be game-winning two-point conversion against the Eagles last Sunday, erased that scenario. Instead, even though we have to question if there’ll be the same level of motivation, Buffalo pretty much decides if they travel to the two- or three-seed a week later, assuming the Broncos take care of business against a Chargers team resting Justin Herbert. There is also an outside chance of rising up to fifth, in case the Texans don’t handle their business against the Colts. That circumstance could add an extra layer of motivation, as Buffalo will know how big of a jump they can make by the time they kick off at home, against a Jets team that is barely functional at this point. If Houston locks in that top Wildcard berth and a meeting with the AFC North champs, who would be treated as by far the weakest host inside the conference, it could set up a scenario where the Bills try to get an early lead before sitting down Josh Allen and a few other key contributors. Seeing them beat up a horrid Jets defense that just allowed Drake Maye to strengthen his MVP case once more, with a nearly flawless performance last week, would be fun to watch either way. New York meanwhile has nothing to play for, but also have no real motivation to tank in hope of the first overall pick in the upcoming draft, since that’s not on the table anymore, while top-five is pretty much a lock. The real goal has to be to not become the first defense in the Super Bowl era to not record a single interception in a season, and maybe see if there’s a case to bring any of their quarterbacks back.
Final score: Bills 34 – 14 Jets
Miami Dolphins (7-9) @ New England Patriots (13-3):
Why you should watch? – The Patriots find themselves on the other side of that Chargers-Broncos conundrum, as they still have a chance at the AFC’s number one seed, in case Denver were to trip up at home to a Herbert-less opponent. Assuming that either Drake Maye can’t significantly enhance his MVP case anymore and/or that’s nothing this coaching staff really has on their mind either way, there’s an outside possibility that Mike Vrabel’s group concedes that unlikely opportunity, in favor of getting their bye week here already. That’d be more realistic if the Jags were to fall to the Titans and now New England couldn’t drop to the three-seed, but I’d be pretty surprised if things went down that way, and more likely, they will come out with an inspired effort, to put away their division rivals quickly here. The Pats’ only loss since week three came against the Bills at home, following their week 14 bye, when they surrendered a 21-0 lead, and they just utterly embarrassed the bottom-feeder of the AFC East in the Jets, sitting down their star sophomore QB with over 20 minutes left. Finding a happy medium between staying hot and making sure nobody gets hurt late, with the postseason right around the corner, would be the optimal game flow, aside from the Broncos maybe opening up that door for them. However, the Dolphins shouldn’t be taken *too* lightly. While they did lose to the Steelers and Bengals in pretty humiliating fashion and recently benched Tua Tagovailoa, they had previously won four straight, and just beat a Bucs team that was as healthy as they’ve been in a while, with had a chance to control their own destiny towards a division championship. Seventh-round rookie Quinn Ewers had a few flashes in that matchup as a former top national recruit for Texas, and now has a chance to make one more case for why how Miami should maybe handle the quarterback situation, while Mike McDaniel, Anthony Weaver and company do the same, trying to retain their jobs.
Final score: Patriots 31 – 20 Dolphins
Detroit Lions (8-8) @ Chicago Bears (11-5):
Why you should watch? – Finally, this matchup has far fewer implications for how the NFC seedings shake out, as the only potential change would occur in case of a Bears loss paired with an Eagles win against Washington. I’m sure the Bears, after having overcome their demons with the Packers a couple of weeks ago, would probably welcome a best-of-three opportunity against them over the potential of hosting either the Rams or 49ers – who they just lost a shootout to. The real factor to decide how watchable this affair will end up being is the level of motivation for the Lions at the end of a highly disappointing season, which saw any remaining hope for the playoff go up in flames on Christmas day, when they lost by 13 to a Vikings team that had a miniscule three(!) net passing yards with third-stringer Max Brosmer under center. Although leadership changes for Detroit would be pretty shocking outside of offensive coordinator, I don’t feel like a Dan Campbell-coached team just happily takes a fourth straight loss to end the year on the chin. It’s much more likely that they decide to empty the bag in this matchup and try everything they can to put a dent into Chicago’s impressive turnaround campaign under Ben Johnson. That man may however might opt to use this final week as an opportunity to throw a bunch of looks and plays out there for their eventual playoff opponents to have to prepare for. So with two leaky defenses going up against pretty explosive attacks, the entertainment value could be pretty high regardless of what the outcome ultimately means, but then this certainly has a chance to get very interesting in the fourth quarter, when all other meaningful games are basically over. I can easily envision this coming down to a last-second field goal, with the Eagles already observing in the locker room who they’re about to host a week later.
Final score: Bears 27 – 24 Lions
Sunday 8:20 pm ET – Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers:
Why you should watch? – I was definitely surprised to see that the NFL schedule makers didn’t put Seahawks-49ers as game number 272, but rather on Saturday Night. The thought process, completely aside from the quality of those respective matchups, probably came down to potentially adding relevance to one additional Sunday game, as the Rams might be incentivized to once again favor resting their players in week 18 rather than competing for the chance to move up to the number five seed, if San Francisco can’t climb atop the division, and there’s no certainty about the implications of what a win might mean when they take the field.
Treating Ravens-Steelers as a consolation price feels blasphemous considering the history of this hated AFC North rivalry, but you can’t deny the fact that neither side has put together a stretch that should convince us that they can be real players in the conference. And yet, if these two sides find themselves in a tightly contested battle once again – as it seems to always be the case, when they meet – there will be plenty of drama in the air. The only reason this game will end up deciding the division champions is thanks to the Steelers not taking care of business in Cleveland this past Sunday. For as much credit as the Browns deserve for keeping the Ravens alive, even if that certainly wasn’t the cause for motivation, Pittsburgh put together a disgusting offensive performance, where they legitimately seemed more concerned about not allowing Myles Garrett to break the all-time sack record than actually putting points on the board. That came on the heels of surviving a climactic affair in Detroit, where a penalty on the final play ended up being the decisive factor. On the flipside, the Ravens came into this season tied for the best betting odds to win the Super Bowl, and even after a 1-5 start, they were able to overtake their rivals momentarily, once they had won five straight, yet then missed numerous chances to win the first meeting in Baltimore. Even after hammering the Bengals 24-0, giving away that Sunday night game against the Patriots felt the final nail, before Derrick Henry carried them to an impressive win at Green Bay this past Saturday night, and then receiving help from those Browns. An important note – Lamar Jackson is expected to practice today and play on Sunday.
What to watch for? – Observing the Ravens throughout this 2025 season has been highly frustrating overall. Even considering Lamar Jackson has missed four games and exited a couple of others, their offense in particular has continued to shoot themselves in the foot with untimely giveaways, bad drops and questionable play-calling, especially when it comes to (not) feeding King Henry late in games. Quietly, after gashing the Packers for over 300 yards most recently, they’ve now suddenly risen second in EPA per for the season. Yet, even with their outlier performance last week, Baltimore still ranks 29th in the percentage of red zone trips they’ve converted into touchdowns (47.5%). More than ever, their success rate through the air has been tied to how effectively they’ve been able to establish the run, as their EPA per dropback skyrockets on play-action (+0.273) compared to straight dropbacks (-0.093). Putting additional tight-ends and fullback Patrick Ricard on the field more has always been beneficial to moving the ball between the 20s, especially considering Lamar’s regression in defined passing situations this year. He simply hasn’t managed the pocket at a high level or been able to decipher defenses post-snap like he did last season, when he come inches short of winning his third league MVP trophy. The only quarterbacks with a worse pressure-to-sack conversion rate (22.8%) are three first-year starters, a couple of guys who have been benched, and Geno Smith. That’s a bad omen considering T.J. Watt is about to return from injury on Sunday. While he hasn’t nearly been on pace for his typical statistical output, other names along that D-line have emerged, and he’s seemingly always created a big sack or turnover when facing Baltimore. Overall, Pittsburgh’s defense has been dead-average this season (17th in EPA per play, 15th in success rate). They’ve surrendered big performances through both the air and on the ground at various points, but they’re tied for the third-most takeaways (26) and as they’ve gone more towards zone coverage and thrown different blitzes at opponents, that’s the type of ameba defense that has caused Lamar and company trouble in the past. The Ravens ran for 217 yards in their week 14 meeting and it took two highly questionable calls that erased a turnover and a touchdown respectively, but over their past three weeks, the Steelers have allowed just 52 yards per game.
As I already mentioned, the Steelers unleashed a truly dishonorable offensive gameplan at Cleveland this past Sunday. Aaron Rodgers remains tied at the bottom of the league with the “other” Browns rookie QB Dillon Gabriel at just 6.4 average depth of target for the season, and only Tua Tagovailoa has a lower time-to-throw mark by a couple of hundredths of a second (2.57 seconds). They took those things to a new extreme, including giving chip-help to Garrett even when lined up outside the slot receiver at times, throwing a bunch of screens and checkdowns. The good part about Sunday? – Baltimore doesn’t have a player up front in that same stratosphere, and overall aren’t nearly as dangerous rushing the passer. In fact, they are one of only four teams with an overall pressure rate below 30%, according to Next Gen Stats. Overall, that unit has made a significant jump however, since coming out of their bye in week eight, when the got a bunch of key contributors back from injury, as they’ve been firmly inside the top ten in both EPA per play and success rate from that point forward. Without D.K. Metcalf in the lineup, who will also miss week 18 due to a suspension he received for an altercation with a fan in the stands in Detroit, Pittsburgh are missing that guy to throw up contested balls to outside the numbers or can really work the middle of the field. I mean, he caught a 52-yard bomb on a go route on the very first play from scrimmage in that previous face-off. Where they can hurt the Ravens is Rodgers’ quick decision-making when they spread out the formation and his understanding for where he has leverage advantages. On the touchdown that put Pittsburgh up by double-digits late the third quarter, they caught rookie outside linebacker Mike Green having to peel off with the running back into the flats and there being some traffic, before he was forced to chase in vain for 38 yards. Rodgers may take a couple of shots on the perimeter, but I expect the Ravens corners to handle those and be able to box in this offense, as long as DC Chris Orr doesn’t get too aggressive on crucial downs.
Final score: Ravens 24 – 20 Steelers
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