We’re four weeks into the NFL season, and as always, this is the point at which I first try to reflect on what we’ve seen and actually try to put all 32 teams in order. Please bear in mind that these are power *rankings* rather than standings. So you may see one team be listed above another with a (slightly) better record or even one they’ve already lost to head-to-head at some point – the objective is to weigh them against the rest of the league at large, and how many opponents I’d favor them over.

This is meant to be a snapshot of how I view each of these teams as of right now, taking injuries into account, although as objective as one tries to be when putting these together, there may be some projection of certain areas improving or declining with time. I will use a variety of statistics and advanced metrics to support my arguments, but they’re all grounded in having watched all 64 games so far on the broadcast and/or All-22 – yes, even some of the atrocious AFC South matchups in the early going.

Overall, I wouldn’t say there’s one dominant group in the league right now, and there are a bunch of teams in the middle of course, where I expect plenty of movement over the next three plus months still, while the bottom-eight teams feel pretty distant to the rest of the competition.

Let’s get into the list:

 

1. Buffalo Bills (4-0) 

Things have certainly taken a turn for these Bills since they entered the fourth quarter of the season-opening Sunday Night game against the Ravens down by 15 points, as they’ve outscored their opponents by a combined 48 points since then. What’s most encouraging for Buffalo, is that after it took Josh Allen to be Superman, along with a couple of Baltimore errors, to come back in a 41-40 opening Sunday Night thriller, James Cook has rushed for over 100 yards in each of their three games since, as they lead the league in rush EPA. The reigning league MVP has been able to play an efficient brand of football, they’ve only turned the ball over once as a group, and they’ve posted by far the highest EPA per play and DVOA offensively. On the flipside, I’m still rather concerned about this Bills defense, which ranks 28^th in rush EPA themselves, still relies on Tre’Davious White as their number two outside corner, and their safety play has been a problem, especially when it comes to their angles as that extra layer in run defense. However, Joey Bosa has started to really emerge for them rushing off the edge (earning the third-highest PFF pass-rush grade so far – 92.5), and at least they’ve been opportunistic in big moments, forcing game-changing/-sealing turnovers with under four minutes left against the Ravens and Dolphins, and one in the red-zone in a tight contest right before halftime against the Saints, along with their one dominant showing against the Jets. So this isn’t a firm grasp of the NFL’s throne, but with the next five teams coming from the NFC, they feel like the group with the least amount of questions through the first month of the season on that side of the bracket, even though they haven’t really been tested since week one.

 

2. Los Angeles Rams (3-1) 

If not for a game-sealing field goal block at Philadelphia in week three, after surrendering a 19-point lead, you could make a *very* strong case for this being the number one team in the league. Nobody’s writing home about being in one-score affairs in the fourth quarter against the Texans and Titans, but they may be the most complete all-around group and have only trailed for about 47 (of 240) total minutes through four weeks. I’ll reference something from my article on “key week one takeaways” here – As long as they’re both healthy, the Matt Stafford-Puka Nacua connection is pretty much unstoppable. Their quarterback currently leads the NFL with an 8.3% big-time-throw rate, compared to just a 3.2% mark of turnover-worthy plays, Puka is on pace to break basically every meaningful single-season record, and they rank second to only the Bills in offensive DVOA overall. The one thing to note – although they rank second in the NFL with a 51.0% rushing success rate, they’re only 14^th in EPA per rush, because they don’t get many explosives on the ground. Meanwhile, if you look at the three levels of the defense, I feel justified in believing and doubting one of those each, while the third has surprised me. The Rams are tied for second in sacks (14), with Jared Verse headlining a dominant front that really feasts in defined dropback settings. The secondary certainly gives me some pause, with starter-by-necessity Emmanuel Forbes having literally allowed a perfect passer (158.3) rating through four games. Yet, I’ve been really impressed by linebacker Nate Landman next to Omar Speights, who had the game-clinching punch-out against the Texans back in week one. According to pro-football-reference.com, every other team has missed at least double-digit tackles so far – the Rams currently sit at three total.

 

3. Philadelphia Eagles (4-0) 

I already know Eagles fans are going to go after me for putting their Birds right below the Rams, after they just won in Philadelphia the week prior to this past one. Ignoring the fact that it took a blocked field goal (plus the touchdown return for good measure) in that contest, and the Bucs all of a sudden had a chance to put together a game-tying drive at the end, after the got the ball up 24-6 but didn’t complete a single pass all second half, let me ask you this – What is there on offense that you can hang your hat on? Outside of the second-half explosion at L.A., when Jalen Hurts just threw the ball up for A.J. Brown, they’ve only had three(!) plays of more than 20 yards. He’s already quoting bible verses again. Meanwhile, Saquon Barkley’s yards-per-carry average has dropped to a minuscule 3.1 compared to 5.8 last year. That’s not optimal for a team that wants to play ball control and then occasionally takes shots down the field, currently being tied with the Browns for the third-lowest yards per play mark (4.2), although they have only given the ball away once and are the only team to turn each of their red zone trips into touchdowns (11 of 11). Vic Fangio’s defense has been excellent on a snap-to-snap basis, but they have allowed five plays of 40+ yards, they haven’t forced many negative yardage plays, and their number two corner spot has been rough to watch. Right now, they feel a lot like last year’s Chiefs, where they’ve figured out how to win ugly, but it could come back to bite them down the stretch.

 

4. Detroit Lions (3-1) 

Full transparency, I was pretty worried about the Lions after watching them be outmatched in pretty much all areas in their season opener at Green Bay. It was less a reaction to that singular outing, but rather being susceptible to confirmation bias, considering my pre-existing concerns about them. In particular, I thought it would be foolish to expect similar output they got from elite play-callers on both sides of the ball and an All-Pro center who I viewed as the best representations of what they want to be, when they had hired Denver’s passing game coordinator John Morton, who had only called plays in the NFL for one of 21 years, elevated their linebacker coach, who has never called plays defensively, and a completely re-shuffled interior offensive line. I’m more than happy to admit that the early returns have been pretty encouraging. They’ve since outdueled the Bears, Ravens and Browns by a combined score of 124-to-61, including a big Monday Night win at Baltimore. John Morton may not quite be Ben Johnson when it comes to clever play-designs (yet), but he really understands how to enhance the strengths of his players. They’ve started to just move people vertically off the ball with their big O-line, with that two-handed monster at running back behind it, Jared Goff has looked totally dialed in with protections and reading out progressions, while Amon-Ra St. Brown currently ranks second to only Puka Nacua in receiving first downs (20). Kelvin Sheppard impressed me a lot in that Monday Night game at Baltimore, developing that gameplan that one of his mentors in Steve Spagnuolo did him he honor to largely adapting a week later. Their defense has allowed the second-lowest success rate overall defensively (38.6%) and they also rank second in schedule-adjusted DVOA (38.0%).

 

5. Green Bay Packers (2-1-1) 

I really played with the idea of putting the Packers over their division rivals and started to brace myself for the blowback from Lions fans, similar to Philadelphia’s. As I explained in the intro, I’m not trying to fixate on direct matchups or the fact that Detroit just ran the Browns out of the building in the second half this past Sunday, after their counterparts lost on a game-winning field goal in Cleveland the previous one. Long-term, I do believe the Pack will be a problem to deal with, because they have an elite offensive play-caller, who keeps them balanced, a DC in Jeff Hafley, who has really impressed me with the way he changes up looks on the back-end, and a true ace in Micah Parsons now, to dictate protection schemes. Not being as efficient on the ground so far this season (tenth in the NFL with a 43.4% success rate), and just allowing Dak Prescott to pick apart their back-end for a 40-burger, with the rush not getting home, gives me pause about viewing them as a true Super Bowl front-runner, as I might’ve done two weeks ago. But they’re the only team in the league to convert better than half their third downs offensively (53.7%) and only the Bills have posted a higher mark in EPA per play, while Micah hasn’t racked up a ton of sacks, but is tied for an NFL-high 25 total pressures, they have four other guys in the double-digits, and if linebacker Edgerrin Cooper can learn to come to balance a little better to finish tackles, his ability to trust his eyes and trigger on stuff is on a different level in year two.

 

6. Los Angeles Chargers (3-1) 

Does losing to the previously winless Giants dampen things a little bit for one of the emerging teams of the season so far? I can’t totally deny that, but I also won’t overreact here. If I had to pick the league’s MVP today, it would still come down to either Josh Allen or Justin Herbert, Omarion Hampton just had a career day with 165 scrimmage yards, their trio of wide receivers complements each other really well, and it looks like Joe Alt has at least avoided major disaster with a high ankle sprain that isn’t supposed to cost him more than a month. Meanwhile, they did allow rookie quarterback Jaxson Dart to just win his NFL debut by putting up 21 points, but they didn’t allow any drive of 50+ yards beyond the scripted opener, and it tied their previous high the defense has given up in the season opener against the Chiefs in Brazil.  No other team has been responsible for a lower success rate defensively (37.6%), and only their division rivals Denver have been better at denying teams to turn red zone trips into touchdowns (30.8%). So, now with Alt out for four weeks most likely now making it that both penciled in starting tackles are out, you have to be even more cognizant of not asking the protection to hold up for more than 2.5 seconds if you want to put five guys in the pattern, but the Bolts have elite quarterback play, and only the Jaguars, who are at an insane pace in takeaways, have surrendered a lower passer rating to opposing QBs than the Bolts (72.7).

 

7. Kansas City Chiefs (2-2) 

This past Sunday against the Ravens was easily the best all-around performance the Chiefs have put forth since just edging out the Bills in the AFC Championship back in January. Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo was able to hold Baltimore to just two field goals over their next eight drives following their opening touchdown, looking in control on all the key downs with schematic wrinkles, and the offense was actually hunting for – and hitting on – big plays, with more of the Andy Reid system breakers we’ve gotten accustomed to seeing. What’s kind of scary for everyone else in the league is that Patrick Mahomes has been performing at a pretty high level throughout, and the supporting cast should only improve as we go along, having everyone fully healthy now, their two first-year starters on the left side of the O-line gaining more experience, and Rashee Rice having two more games left on his suspension. They’ve only turned the ball over once, and are now up to seventh in DVOA as a unit, with Pat having scrambled an NFL-high 18 times for 134 yards, and lowering the shoulder on a bunch of guys. Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo also just proved that he hasn’t lost his fastball, making a perennial MVP frontrunner in Lamar Jackson look uncomfortable for most of the day, while showing that an even all-timer like him isn’t too proud to adapt portions of the previous Lions gameplan against those guys, in how they decided to rush. Their three safeties in their preferred big nickel package all still being on their rookie contracts did show up a handful of times in the early going, and they didn’t construct their D-line room to where you’d have to fear anyone’s speed off the edge, but I have a lot of trust that Spags and figure things out, if opponents have to press in order to keep up with the offense.

 

8. Indianapolis Colts (3-1) 

To be honest, Indy’s loss at the Rams this past Sunday was the most encouraging thing I’ve seen from them so far – and this is meant in a complimentary way. Blowing out the Dolphins 33-8 in week one was the most impressive all-around performance, although it took a retry on that final kick the following game, the Broncos were their most impressive actual win, and going up by a couple of touchdowns early at Tennessee, felt insurmountable right away. Wide receiver Adonai Mitchell letting the ball slip out of his hands to take a 75-yard touchdown off the board and defensive back Mekhi Blackmon falling on a wide open 88-yard score the other way is what made the difference. For the rest of the matchup, I thought it was totally balanced and they had a chance to pull away in the fourth quarter against an undoubtedly top-three or -four team in the NFL. Now, they certainly have some flaws. Being literally the most efficient quarterback coming into this past weekend by success rate (still second at 56.2%) always felt unsustainable, they did just turn the ball over three times after staying totally clean through three games, and starting cornerback Xavien Howard has been responsible for a passer rating of 139.2 along with being penalized four times already. Still, I love the construction of this offense under Shane Steichen, with the skill-position group continuing to emerge, Jonathan Taylor paired with this O-line provides a high floor in any matchup, as they currently lead the league in yards per play (6.5 YPP) and percentage of drives leading to a score (63.2%). Plus, the defense has been cooking at times under veteran coordinator Lou Anarumo, with a wider menu of coverages and games up front. Allowing an NFL-high 88.9% of red zone trips for opponents to turn into touchdowns is the one major issue.

Update: Cornerback Xavien Howard has since announced his retirement.

 

 

 

9. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-1) 

The Bucs offense has been as explosive through the air as they’ve been since Tom Brady retired, with wide receiver Emeka Egbuka immediately looking like a star and already having become the betting favorite for Offensive Rookie of the Year, but the efficiency on the ground isn’t nearly the same as it was under previous offensive coordinator Liam Coen (26^th in rushing success rate – 35.2%). Baker Mayfield is right there with Patrick Mahomes among starters, throwing basically right at the sticks every time they get the ball out, but even though he’s posted the third-most big-time throws (11), he’s also tied for the most turnover-worthy plays (nine). And yet, his incredible fourth-down escape scramble on the final possession at Houston best illustrates that this team refuses to die. They’ve put together game-winning drives in all three of their wins, and they had a chance again somehow this past Sunday at Philadelphia, after they were down by 18 with four minutes left in the third quarter. I never viewed this defense as anything but an average-at-best unit, but if not for a blocked field goal being returned for a touchdown by the Jets, they would’ve held each of their previous three opponents to 20 points – which should be good enough with their own offense. And they just put together their best half of the season, as the only points they allowed were set up directly by a fumble that put the Eagles in scoring range already, not letting Jalen Hurts complete a single pass after the break. The two areas they excel at, so this formula works, and to be as aggressive with sending pressure on obvious passing downs – they’ve surrendered the lowest EPA per rush and they lead the league with 32 tackles for loss. Funnily enough, although the blocked punt turned into a touchdown the other way that set the tone this past Sunday against the Eagles does loom large, with how many long field goals Chase McLaughlin has banged in, I did not expect the Bucs to rank 31^st in special teams DVOA through the first month.

 

10. Seattle Seahawks (3-1) 

When I was going through each roster ahead of the 2025 season, I thought Seattle had all the pieces in place to field at least a top-three defense league-wide. That was going to be contingent on last year’s first-round pick Byron Murphy II developing into a game wrecker on the interior, more spread out production from guys around him being healthy up front, and finding an adequate solution for that fifth defensive back spot. Murphy is just one pressure off the number two among interior D-linemen (14), they have seven guys overall with 8+ pressures, and they settled on Devon Witherspoon sticking in the slot, while Josh Jobe has earned that field-side corner spot – and he’s held opponents to a passer rating of 47.4 when targeting him (although he’s been flagged four times). What held me back about really buying into them were questions about this offense, whether it was what I perceived a downgrade at quarterback, the construction of this wide receiver room, and the lack of investments on the O-line outside of first-rounder Grey Zabel. Sam Darnold shockingly is basically tied with Dak Prescott for PFF’s highest-ranked QB, with six big-time throws compared to only one turnover-worthy play, Jaxon Smith-Njigba has become a complete superstar receiver who can line up anywhere along the formation, and OC Klint Kubiak’s plan of taking pressure off the protection with as many bootlegs off their outside zone-centric approach, has worked out big-time so far. Altogether, this under the radar, is the number one team in schedule-adjusted DVOA (44.4%), ranking top-six on offense, defense and special teams each.

 

11. Jacksonville Jaguars (3-1) 

Although I didn’t have any specific spot in mind for any of these teams before I went into the exercise, I thought this was simply perfect for the Jags, placing them just outside the top ten. There are a lot of positives with a team that probably was a ticky-tack pass interference call away from being undefeated right now, but there are also elements of this that make me hesitant to fully buy into them. Liam Coen reviving this run game, transitioning to a wider variety of gap concepts that actually suit Travis Etienne, and their O-line coming together with sound protection plans (having surrendered an NFL-low three sacks) come to mind in a positive sense. Defensively, their trio on the D-line between Josh Hines-Allen, Travon Walker and Arik Armstead has been highly disruptive, and Devin Lloyd has completely transformed his game, where it feels like he had a magnet for the ball installed, already hauling in three interceptions. On the flipside, Brian Thomas Jr. is totally in his own head with errors approaching traffic and the sideline, trying to secure catches (contributing to an NFL-high 13 drops), Trevor Lawrence also has too many off-target throws to keep the offense on schedule, if opposing offenses can give their quarterbacks solid time, this secondary is still pretty vulnerable, and the defense already having four more takeaways than they in 2024 (13 – three more than any other team) doesn’t quite feel sustainable. Unfortunately, no other team has been flagged more frequently than them so far (38), which is exactly half as many times as they’ve benefitted from the refs (19 – fewest in the NFL). They do have a chance to prove themselves in a big test against the Chiefs on Monday Night next.

 

12. Pittsburgh Steelers (3-1) 

This version of the Steelers is starting to feel so much like the embodiment of a Mike Tomlin team. It certainly didn’t look like it through their 1-1 start, when they suddenly found themselves in a shootout with the Jets in the opener, and then lost by a couple of touchdowns at Seattle, where rookie Kaleb Johnson had one of the all-time blunders, with a muffed kickoff turning into six points the other way. However, since then, they’ve won the turnover battle 7-to-1, “out-sacked” their opponents 11-to-2, and closed out both games with fourth-down stops at the end. Seeing their D-line take over against the Vikings in Dublin was certainly encouraging, with first-rounder Derrick Harmon being healthy and mixing into the rotation, and Payton Wilson hitting the fastest GPS-tracked time for a linebacker in the Next Gen Stats era to hawk down wide receiver Jordan Addison at the one-yard line, and help take valuable time off the clock, illustrates the effort they internally talked about needing to dial back up with how last season ended. The difference for this group is their quarterback play, as Aaron Rodgers’ style of getting the ball out quickly to his targets underneath like D.K. Metcalf with room to run (as he has both the shortest time-to-throw and lowest ADOT) offers a higher floor than previous iterations and you can imagine him lifting them to new heights, although it looked quite different against a defense like the Seahawks’ that forces him to hold onto the ball, compared to Minnesota’s blitz-heavy approach (68.0%) playing into their hands. One thing I love about these Steelers – they currently lead the league in the HRF.com metric of difference in average starting field position (+7.2 yards), and no team has been penalized less (19 for 135 yards).

 

13. San Francisco 49ers (3-1) 

The Niners are another team that I can see showing up higher in most people’s rankings, because even though I believe the Jaguars deserved to win that game, the ball certainly did take some funny bounces in their favor, which led to a four-nothing turnover differential. At the same time, San Francisco’s three wins have come by a combined ten points, in which the Seahawks and Saints had opportunities to finish off potential game-winning drives, and it took a field goal by the kicker they had just signed with time running out, to beat the Cardinals. Brock Purdy needs to do a better job of protecting the football by avoiding throws into traffic, but he’s been hyper-efficient on an every-down basis, as he leads the league in success rate (58.8%) through four weeks. Christian McCaffrey’s versatility as a receiver who can legitimately create separation as a route-runner against defensive backs when flexed out, definitely helps that, as the Niners meanwhile are in the bottom quartile in all rushing metrics. As they continue to lean into this more dropback-centric approach, they now need George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk back from injury to actually turn those completions into more explosives, and to complement the sophomore emergence of Ricky Pearsall. I like the energy this defense plays with under Robert Saleh, and Fred Warner is omnipresent in both phases, but with Nick Bosa on injured reserve, they’re missing their closer – and that’s my main worry. They’ve at least improved to being average against the run again. Bryce Huff continuing to step up once they get to these defined passing situations is a must, to take advantage of them. The Niners currently being top-three in both offensive and defensive third-down conversion rate has been huge.

 

14. Minnesota Vikings (2-2) 

It’s been a roller coaster for the Vikings through the first month of this season. First, their quasi-rookie quarterback J.J. McCarthy comes alive late in the final matchup of week one at Chicago, to lead them to a comeback after putting them in a hole with a pick-six previously, before laying a complete egg against the Falcons, and later being announced to miss some time with a sprained ankle. That’s followed up by Carson Wentz looking like a solid side character in a demolition of the Bengals, in which cornerback Isaiah Rodgers single-handedly outscores their opponents with a pair of defensive touchdowns, only for that unit to get diced up by 41-year-old Aaron Rodgers, while the Steelers D-line made Minnesota’s front look unplayable with a couple of injuries coming in. So what to make of them going forward? Personally, I had a lot of reservations about McCarthy as a potential franchise signal-caller coming out of Michigan and I thought it was rather foolish to expect similar output compared to last year. Simultaneously, with Jordan Addison back from suspension, they now have their full arsenal of receiving options available, while the run game has taken massive strides, from 18^th last year to seventh right now in success rate (45.1%). I still have high expectations for this Vikes defense, because for as adaptable as DC Brian Flores has proven to be through the years, giving Rodgers easy answers by being over-aggressive with their blitzes isn’t a common occurrence, as they’ve moved up from second to the top spot in EPA per play as a unit this season.

 

15. Denver Broncos (2-2) 

The Broncos were a popular dark horse candidate not only to beat out the Chiefs for the AFC West, but maybe even to get to the conference title game. The vibes are definitely a lot better coming off a dominant 28-3 performance over the submarining Bengals on Monday Night, but I don’t believe anyone can argue this team has looked the way they envisioned with a potential contender. Now, the defense is starting to really take on shape, as it took Justin Herbert overcoming the fact that he was basically pressured on every other dropback to somehow put 23 points on the board, before not allowing the Bengals to finish a drive across midfield after getting a field goal on their opening drive. Their defensive front has been absolutely terrorizing opposing quarterbacks, with the league’s highest pressure rate (47.1%), and they’ve been the best red zone unit (25.0% TD rate), but they’ve been dead-average against the run (16^th in success rate – 39.4%) and we saw the Colts push around what is a smaller front, which didn’t allow DC Vance Joseph to call up all his crazy pressure packages. The other side of the ball has been much more concerning to me however. And this is coming on the heels of having their first 100-yard-rusher in 38 games. Sean Payton has clearly re-installed the training wheels version of the Bo Nix offense, where they constantly cut the field in half, roll him out of the pocket, throw all these early-down screens, jet sweeps, etc., and even with some questionable moments of pocket navigation, their quarterback has only been sacked three times (tied for fewest in the NFL). They can obviously win games with this formula, but I don’t see them taking down the AFC powerhouses if they need to dial things back with their second-year QB.

 

16. Baltimore Ravens (1-3) 

I’m sure a lot of people have forgotten that Baltimore lost their first two games of the 2024 season, before going 12-3 the rest of the way. However, this start feels different than coming up just short on the one pivotal play in each of those affairs. Derrick Henry has been the tragic figure with two of his three fumbles already coming in the fourth quarter of losses to the Bills and Lions, but making him a more central piece to the offense is one of the key adjustments we need to see, as they’ve become too “dropback happy”. Lamar Jackson has to figure out the current blueprint opponents use to corral him in the pocket, as his game has felt so much more frantic than what we’ve seen over the last couple of years, but he’s fully capable of dicing up teams. Their pressure rate within the first 2.5 seconds being nearly twice as high as it was last year, definitely contributes to that, but they do rank second in yards per play (6.4 YPP). The real issue has been this Ravens defense. I think it was fair to blame some things on coordinator Zach Orr, when it comes to letting their vulnerable number two outside corner spot be put in as many isolated situations, and their predictability situationally, as they’re 24^th or worse in third-, fourth-down and red zone conversion rate. At the same time, at one point, they were without nine(!) of eleven defensive starters this past Sunday, when they were getting handled at Kansas City, with their front in particular being extremely banged up. And now Lamar is expected to miss 2-3 weeks with a hamstring injury on top of it all.

 

 

 

17. New England Patriots (2-2) 

When I predicted the entire 2025 season, I projected the Patriots to go 10-7. I didn’t feel great about that after they lost at home to the Raiders by a touchdown and then needed to stop the Dolphins on a potential game-winning drive, after they had already put 27 points on the board. They looked like a much better all-around team in week three against the Steelers, but losing the turnover battle five-to-one led to them coming seven points short again, despite nearly doubling up their opponents in total yardage. So watching them put it all together in a 42-6 thrashing of the Panthers until a meaningless touchdown at the two-minute warning, was great. Now, I still believe the supporting cast on offense is clearly flawed, with Hunter Henry as the only truly reliable skill-position player. Yet, despite literally having the worst run game in the league on first down by EPA per play, Drake Maye ranks among all quarterbacks in the EPA + completion percentage over expected composite, and he’s number one if you look at third and fourth specifically. He’s been absolutely on fire. On the flipside, the Pats D seems to be on the right track. They have two of 22 interior D-linemen league-wide in QB pressures (Milton Williams and Christian Barmore), Harold Landry is on pace for his best season as a pro off the edge, and they only just got cornerback Christian Gonzalez back, who massively alters how they can operate, isolating him on the backside of the formation and structuring coverages around it. Allowing all but one of seven red zone possessions against them to turn into touchdowns is simply rough.

 

18. Washington Commanders (2-2) 

I massively whiffed on betting against the Commies in week three against the Raiders, after Jayden Daniels got ruled out. They proved that they’re more than just their dynamic second-year quarterback, aided by one of the worst showcases of covering kicks, fitting the run, and tackling overall from their opposition. They certainly didn’t catch the Falcons by surprise, as they were looking to repay themselves for getting whooped 30-nothing by Carolina the previous week – who you’ll find much lower on this list. That performance against Las Vegas certainly boosted their numbers, but this group barely ranks behind the Bills for second in EPA per rush, and more of these receiving options alongside Terry McLaurin have stepped up, as he’s been trying to acclimate himself again. Now, the defense to me suffers from a lot of the shortcomings we’ve seen under Dan Quinn-coached units in the past, where they just live in nickel personnel, therefore struggle to stop the run in neutral gamescripts, and you can manipulate those bodies over the middle of the field in coverage. Their turnover “luck” from 2024 has run out, as they’ve only taken the ball away once through four games. The two differences compared to previous iterations are that Washington taps into a wider rolodex of coverages, and when they blitz, they primarily run man-coverage, where having a standout rookie corner like Trey Amos on the outside definitely helps. With Jayden likely back this week, to boost their late-down efficiency, and how exceptional he’s been against the blitz for his young career, I expect their arrow to be pointing up.

 

19. Chicago Bears (2-2) 

Speaking of teams on the rise, no other group may have better vibes around them right now than where things stood just a couple of weeks ago. The Bears managed to surrender an 11-point lead in the fourth quarter of their season-opener against the Vikings, before the Lions absolutely lit up a crumbling defense for 52 points, which the offense couldn’t keep up with in the second half of that game. In no way have they been perfect since, but they’ve just gotten out of their own way, winning the turnover battle eight-to-one, with their defense shutting out the Cowboys in the second half of what looked like a high-scoring affair leading up to the break, and then although it took them blocking a potential game-winning field goal, their offense keeping their foot on the gas pedal against the Raiders, scoring on all but one of their final six drives on the day. I’m still worried about some of the cracks this defense has shown, with backup linebackers being attacked with misdirection and in coverage, along with the miscommunication along a re-shuffled secondary, as Jaylon Johnson won’t be eligible to return until week eight. No other team has allowed a higher yards-per-play average through four weeks (6.7 YPP). And that’s while being the only defense to allow less than 30% of third downs to be converted against them – they just don’t even get there frequently. However, with Caleb Williams and this aerial attack coming alive, if they can play with this level of confidence, they can outscore some of these offensively challenged opponents on deck following this early bye week. I just really want them to trade for a running back still, to take better advantage of what’s blocked.

 

20. Atlanta Falcons (2-2) 

How can an offense look so utterly helpless the previous week, as they get shut out by the worst defense over the last year and a quarter (Carolina), and then move the ball at will the following Sunday? There was nothing “special” the Panthers did schematically – quarterback Michael Penix Jr. just short-circuited, seemingly turning down open throws and completely missing simple coverage rotations. That’s where my concerns about Washington’s defense arise and why I feel the need to contextualize offensive success. On paper, with a two-way superstar like Bijan Robinson spearheading the offense – who leads the NFL with 27 missed tackles forced – and the receiving corp around him, as long as they can limit pure dropback situations, where a couple of weak spots on the O-line can show up, they have everything necessary in place. And I’ve actually been more encouraged by what their influx of young talent on defense promises. I don’t pay as much attention to traditional statistics, but this group currently ranks second in both yards per game (244) and first downs allowed (14.5 per game). I like what I’ve seen from the marriage of head coach Raheem Morris and new defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich in terms of pressure looks they’ve presented on second and third down, and how they’ve tied them into what they’re doing on the back-end. Divine Deablo has quietly been a really quality addition, with what he provides them in terms of range on the second level, third-round rookie Xavier Watts continues to shine with his combination of instincts and ball-skills, and although they’ve limited his snap total, the guy they traded back into round one for in James Pearce Jr., looks like he might finally be the edge rushing presence they’ve been so desperately lacking.

 

21. Arizona Cardinals (2-2) 

The reason I put the Cardinals at the bottom among these 2-2 teams isn’t as simple as “they’ve lost their last two games”, after beating the Saints and Panthers, who have just one win combined. They had all the chances to win at San Francisco, where it took Mac Jones filling in at quarterback and Eddy Pineiro just being signed, to put together and finish off a game-winning field goal drive. And I do want to give them *some* credit for fighting back and tying the Seahawks this past Thursday Night, with wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. becoming a galvanizing figure as he overcame massive struggles in the first half, but he was also a big reason they found themselves in a two-touchdown hole with ten minutes left. At this point, you have to wonder if Kyler Murray can truly be an elevator of the surroundings, and he’s just not been very fun to watch either – right now, he’s ahead of only Aaron Rodgers for lowest average depth of target (6.4) and while many thought Arizona would unleash him more as a designer runner, he has gained just 18 yards through that avenue. What has sunk their baseline on offense is that their rushing success grade has massively dropped off from a year ago, based on the limited sample size so far, as they’ve gone from tenth to 30^th across the NFL (30.1%). I struggle to still make new points about the defense, as this is year three of me saying they’re simply missing difference-makers along that unit emerging in-house. Now, their trio of veterans of veterans they’ve acquired over the last one-and-a-half years – Baron Browning, Josh Sweat and Calais Campbell (returning) – has accounted for 40 total QB pressures, and I do have some optimism about what this secondary looks like once they get some of these young, injured contributors back, and feel more comfortable about playing tight coverage.

 

22. Dallas Cowboys (1-2-1) 

One of my favorite podcasts – The Ringer Fantasy Football Show – frequently uses the term “rainbow strip team” referring to the franchise that promises to score but also allow a bunch of points, and therefore should be targeted for fantasy matchups. The Cowboys clearly own that title right now. They’re the only team in the NFL with triple-digit first downs picked up (103), as they’re top seven in both dropback and rush EPA. Even apart from the massive counting numbers, Dak Prescott is playing the quarterback position at as high a level as he ever has, coming off a career showing in that 40-40 tie against the Packers. Individually, he’s currently tied with Matthew Stafford for a league-high 12 big-time throws compared to only five turnover-worthy plays. George Pickens has stepped up big-time in Ceedee Lamb’s absence, and Javonte Williams has been running with the anger and fearlessness we saw from him in college and as a rookie in Denver. On the flipside, only the Bears – who Dallas lost to in week three – have allowed a higher mark in yards per play (6.4 YPP), and they are dead-last by a margin in terms of DVOA and EPA per play. As per request of owner Jerry Jones, they’ve at least become decent against the run (4.0 YPC), but “shockingly” they’ve now really struggled to get to the quarterback without Micah Parsons – only five sacks on the year (tied for fourth-fewest). You’d hope a healthy corner duo will perform better long-term than what teams get from circling retread first-rounder Kaair Elam, but every time opposing quarterbacks drop back against them, they average a passer rating of 123.0 – second-worst in the league – and they’re in a league of their own when it comes to third-down rate against (58.2%). If they’re suddenly buyers at the trade deadline, they have plenty of room upwards.

 

23. Houston Texans (1-3) 

On the surface, you can make an argument that Houston has been a victim of a really tough opening stretch. They went up against three teams that currently sit at 3-1 to start the season and put together promising potential game-winning/-tying drives against the Rams and Jaguars, along with a miraculous Baker Mayfield fourth-down scramble costing them that Bucs game. At the same time, they did just find themselves in a one-possession game in the fourth quarter against the hapless Titans, who already came into the matchup with a -45 point differential, before pulling away late. Allowing Tennessee’s lone defensive bright spot Jeffery Simmons to wrap up C.J. Stroud for a sack as soon as he took the snap, as they left him unlocked right up the A-gap from a four-man front, speaks to a larger issue. They’ve put more responsibility on the quarterback to set protections, but that O-line seems even more discombobulated, and individual mess-ups are even more frequent. Because they’re right there with the Bengals’ horrendous first-down rushing success rate (21.6%), only that Tennessee offense has converted a lower percentage of third downs (29.2%), and they’re also second-to-last in red zone touchdown rate (33.3%). Seeing Woody Marks emerge this past Sunday as a ball-carrier who can add a little dynamism should hopefully help going forward. Up to this point, they’ve largely wasted a borderline elite defense. Facing two AFC South offenses in the Jags and Titans, who have regularly gotten in their own way certainly helps, but Houston is in a league of their own when it comes to the minuscule rate of drives they’ve allowed their opponents to turn into points (19.0%). No duo of pass-rushers has combined for more QB pressures than Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter (42 total), and they’re just smothering receivers with the guys that can play tight man-coverage for them.

 

24. Las Vegas Raiders (1-3) 

I was happy to buy into the Raiders heading into the season, predicting them to go 8-9 while picking Maxx Crosby as my Defensive Player of the Year and Ashton Jeanty as (Co-)Offensive Rookie of the Year. I still stand by a lot of the elements that made me fairly confident in them being a competent group. My one major concern about the secondary has certainly come to life, as DC Patrick Graham has not been able to mitigate personnel deficiencies enough by being diverse on the back-end. Mad Maxx has looked like an All-Pro, but the guys around him have not lived up to the promise they showed in week one, and this second level has been totally exposed in all capacities, with how easily you can manipulate their eyes and get them out of position. The one bright spot – only the Buccaneers have recorded more tackles for loss collectively (28). The two things I didn’t anticipate – multiple young starters along the O-line actually taking a step back, when there was optimism about some collective improvement, and quarterback Geno Smith massively dropping off since week one, with poor accuracy and even worse decision-making. No other team has turned the ball over more than these Raiders (eight) – which is twice as high as how often they’ve taken it away defensively, by the way. Ashton Jeanty has constantly been hit behind the line of scrimmage, but we just saw him run roughshod through the Bears defense when he just had some lanes to work with, as he’s now moved just ahead of Jonathan Taylor in average yards after contact (4.04). Unfortunately, Las Vegas is blowing up the HRF.com scale right now, which compares average starting field position for their offense and defense respectively, as they’re literally dead-last in both categories, needing to cover an additional 11 yards than their opponents every time they hit the field.

 

 

 

25. New York Giants (1-3) 

Among one-win teams, Giants fans right now may have the most optimism. They had a chance to win a shootout in Dallas, they found themselves in a one-possession game at Kansas City until midway through the fourth quarter despite Russell Wilson being unwatchable, and after making the switch to rookie QB Jaxson Dart, they pulled off the upset at home against the previously undefeated Chargers. Now, I certainly wouldn’t say that they moved the ball with any consistency this past Sunday after the opening drive, but at least Dart is willing to attack the middle of the field and offers a dimension as a runner. The O-line has at least been solid and rookie running back Cam Skattebo gives that unit some attitude. Malik Nabers tearing his ACL is absolutely devastating, of course. And the big issue they need to fix – which the QB’s legs can factor into – they’ve converted the lowest rate of red zone trips into touchdowns across the NFL (26.7%). As we switch over to the opposite side of the ball, that defensive front has been terrorizing quarterbacks in passing situations. Brian Burns, Abdul Carter and Kayvon Thibodeaux are all inside the top-16 for QB pressures (at least 17 each), and Dexter Lawrence just came a yard short of recording a pick-six. Unfortunately, they haven’t been nearly as effective against the run, in part because their linebacker have been caught out of position repeatedly. They’ve literally allowed exactly half of carries against them to be successful, and they’re also dead-last in EPA per rush. Meanwhile, they’ve simply been too grabby in the secondary, and former first-round pick Deonte Banks regrettably has been borderline unplayable, surrendering a passer rating of 153.3 when targeted. Oddly, no other team has been penalized for more yardage (320), but also benefitted more from penalties against them (387).

 

26. Cleveland Browns (1-3) 

I understand that a lot of the offensive numbers for Cleveland are heavily influenced by being in negative gamescript settings constantly, but some of them are still glaring. There’s no conceivable way you can justify the Browns leading the league in percentage of pass plays (65.3%). Among 38 quarterbacks with 40+ dropbacks this season, only Minnesota’s J.J. McCarthy has logged a lower EPA per play mark than Joe Flacco – and he’s even below that guy in success rate (35.4%). Rookie running back Quinshon Judkins emerging as a physical presence on the ground should help that, as they should be playing through him and their defense. Right now, they’re dead-last in offensive success rate (35.0%), and they’re tied for the most turnovers league-wide (eight). I know they found a way to grind out a way over the Packers and were competitive until halftime against the Ravens and Lions, but at this point, it’s probably time to just see what you’ve got in your pair of rookie QBs. They owe the defense a chance, at least scoring 17 points in a game, which they’ve only done once inside the two-minute warning, after they had already gone down by 31 at Baltimore. Right now, they’re allowing an NFL-low 4.1 yards per play, and despite very little help from the offense, they rank behind only Seattle in defensive DVOA. Myles Garrett has done unspeakable things to the tackles he’s faced, even racking up eight pressures against Detroit’s tremendous duo on the edges. The difference this year is how disruptive their guys on the interior have been, and rookie linebacker Schwesinger has been flying around to clean up the mess the front has created. That third corner spot has been an issue for them, with Martin Emerson on injured reserve, but the rest of the defense has performed much better in man-coverage because they trust the rush to get home.

Update: The Browns have since announced that Dillon Gabriel will start at quarterback on Sunday.

 

27. Miami Dolphins (1-3) 

I’ll start with something nice here, since the ‘Phins did find a way to hold on to victory against the Jets on Monday Night – their offense has been very good situationally. Having just faced their still winless division rivals has certainly helped the cause, but only the Packers have converted a higher rate of third downs (48.9%) through the first month of the season, and only the Eagles have cashed in for touchdowns on a higher rate of their red zone trips (80.0%). Two-way running back De’Von Achane has been the biggest bright spot, as he currently ranks second to only Ashton Jeanty in PFF’s elusiveness rating (137.2). Tragically, the flashes of the old Tyreek Hill on Monday Night went away when he dislocated his knee. At the same time, due to how they want to operate, when they are pushed into obvious passing situations, opponents are able to make Tua Tagovailoa antsy in the pocket by muddying up the first read, and then the O-line simply isn’t good enough to hold up for longer periods of time. Miami’s QB so far has logged three more turnover-worthy plays (eight) than big-time throws (five). What’s more disappointing to me is how their defense has fallen off in year two under Anthony Weaver. They’re one of only three teams to allow more than six yards per play (6.3 YPP) and no other team has allowed a higher rate of drives to turn into points (61.8%), contributing to the highest success rate against league-wide (52.6%). This pretty clearly is the worst corner room in the league and if opponents can isolate those guys in coverage, it’s pretty much over. As a team, they’ve allowed an NFL-worst passer rating of 125.1.

 

28. New York Jets (0-4) 

I will go with the other participant from the first leg of this most recent Monday double-header here next. And I’ll start like this – taking that first of what should’ve been two Garrett Wilson touchdowns off the board, where he creates some late separation with a textbook push-off that *never* gets called, before securing an incredible catch, was a joke by the refs, who penalized them 13(!) times for over 100 yards. I will say that the Jets need to be more disciplined overall, as neither Aaron Glenn’s attention to detail nor his energy has yet rubbed off on the guys on the field yet, sadly. The defense has been a mess. With Brandon Stephens as one of their starting corners, he’s getting circled every time they try to run man-coverage, and their D-line isn’t nearly as deep as it has been in the past. The Cowboys barely beat them out by allowing one extra play of 20+ yards (19), in part because they lead the league with 39(!) missed tackles, yet they’re the only team to not have forced a turnover up to this point. Offensively, when they can be in positive gamescripts, they’re rushing is multifaceted enough to challenge opponents, and then they can hit these RPOs or deep play-action shots off it. When the game is put on Justin Fields as a dropback passer, we have yet to see him truly come through. Taking out J.J. McCarthy’s two starts, he has the highest turnover-worthy play rate (6.2%) among all quarterbacks, which is twice as high as his big-time throw rate (3.1%), in part because he’s in a league by himself when it comes to time-to-throw (3.5 seconds). The one bright spot – New York ranks third in special teams DVOA, boosted by Will McDonald’s field goal block and touchdown return, which momentarily put them in the lead over the Bucs two weeks ago.

 

29. Cincinnati Bengals (2-2) 

Anyone surprised by Cincinnati’s struggles on defense simply wanted to see this team compete at the highest level again, or told themselves the volatility on that side of the ball would lead to slightly better results. Nothing about how they approached the offense signified that they were on the right track, making veteran DC Lou Anarumo the scapegoat of their misery, and failing to get contracts done for their first-round pick Shemar Stewart or the reigning sack leader Trey Hendrickson, whose play was the only thing that kept that unit afloat at all in 2024. Ranking 22^nd or worse in success rate and EPA per play against both the run and pass is about in line with what should be expected. What’s been rather shocking however, is how inept this Bengals offense has looked. Obviously, the turf toe injury to Joe Burrow was going to massively dampen expectations, but when Jake Browning stepped in two years ago, they were an average unit at the very least. Other than hoping Ja’Marr Chase can take a screen to the house or Tee Higgins can come down with a few jump-balls you throw up to him, there’s not a lot of hope. Cincinnati’s guard play in particular remains catastrophic. They’re now the only offense not named Tennessee to average less than four yards per play (3.9 YPP), and they average 0.7 yards less than anyone else every time they run the ball (2.6 YPC). Altogether, they have had the second-lowest percentage of drives resulting in points (25.0%), but they also have the second-highest rate of drives ending in a turnover (18.2%). The one thing they can hang their hat on collectively – they lead the league in net penalty yardage in their favor (+113).

 

30. New Orleans Saints (0-4) 

Among the three remaining winless teams, I think you can make a solid argument that the Saints have at least shown up in a competitive sense in all but week three at Seattle, which just felt like an avalanche. Otherwise, Juwan Johnson nearly came away with a touchdown that would’ve sent them to overtime against the Cardinals, it took a strip-sack in opposing territory already for the Niners to fend off a potential game-winning/-losing drive, and then a better throw by Chris Olave on a recreation of the Philly Special was about to send them into halftime with the lead against the number one team in the power rankings – the Bills. I will continue to beat the drum for Spencer Rattler looking like a competent starting quarterback and they haven’t gotten overwhelmed in the trenches, which are the are two key ingredients for stability as a team, plus they’ve had a neutral turnover differential in each of their first four games. The issue simply is that they don’t have the pieces to elevate them beyond that. Third-round safety Jonas Sanker looks like he’s going to live up to my lofty pre-draft expectations, just coming up with his first career interception off Josh Allen. He’s the only name outside of Demario Davis that I’d label a difference-maker on defense, while none of the offensive skill-position players have delivered any pop so far. So they should continue to be annoying, because they don’t beat themselves, but ultimately only the Titans have posted a worse mark in total team schedule-adjusted DVOA (-41.2%).

 

31. Carolina Panthers (1-3) 

In my full-season predictions, I had the Panthers going 7-10. Right now, that seems unreachable, and there’s a good chance their shocking week three 30-0 upset over the Falcons ends up looking like a complete outlier on the schedule at the end of the year. Otherwise, they’ve been more than doubled up in points by the Jaguars, Cardinals and Patriots collectively (45-to-95). I know it’s easy to blame Bryce Young for their offensive struggles, but he at least nearly led a massive comeback at Arizona and understood when to protect the football in their blowout win. I would argue that outside of first-round rookie Tetairoa McMillan the rest of the receiving corp has been even more detrimental than last year, and Bryce has actually done a really good of navigating the pocket, only allowing 10.9% of pressures to turn into sacks. Their run game has been efficient enough to provide some balance in neutral gamescripts, but unfortunately, their historically bad 2024 defense hasn’t looked a whole lot different. That performance over Atlanta massively affects their overall numbers, but I assign more blame to Michael Penix Jr. just completely melting down in that game. Where they’re different as a unit so far is that they haven’t killed themselves, with “only” 15 explosive plays and 23 missed tackles (tied for 18^th league-wide). In the meantime, they don’t put their opponents behind the chains either. Carolina has logged half as many sacks as any other team in the league (two) and they’re also dead-last with just eight tackles for loss. I’m not one to call for anyone’s job, and the front office hasn’t really provided him many quality pieces, but Ejiro Evero’s defenses have gone from 17^th to 26^th and then 32^nd in EPA per play through three seasons, and they may finish at the bottom of the list yet again.

 

32. Tennessee Titans (0-4) 

We’ve reached the bottom of the list, and it’s never good when all I have to say to a team’s fanbase is that I’m sorry. I really thought with Cam Ward having the stuff to turn around a franchise like this, some mid-round receiving options added in the draft, how they re-shuffled the O-line in order to make it all sense, along with a defense entering year two under coordinator Dennard Wilson, when they quietly already were an average unit the previous season, despite multiple injuries, there was reason to believe they could be a feisty group. Right now, they rank dead-last in yards per play offensively (3.7 YPP) and points scored (51), along with being at the bottom of the list in pretty much all meaningful advanced metrics (DVOA, success rate and EPA per play). And I know we can point to the pick-six to start the Colts game, where he just completely misses a defender in the flats, but Cleveland’s Joe Flacco being the only quarterback with a lower success rate than Cam Ward (35.6%) is an indictment on the organization overall, looking at all the missed opportunities of receivers to secure targets and even his own head coach seemingly being unaware of certain rules on plays he should have challenges. This isn’t nearly as buttoned-up an operation as they would’ve hoped with Brian Callahan at the helm, and as long as they circle through head coaches and general managers on different timelines and with different motives to stay employed, things may not get better. The defense hasn’t been quite as abysmal, but Jeffery Simmons in the middle has been the only true standout performer. They sit at the bottom of the league in schedule-adjusted DVOA (-46.6%) and they don’t help themselves out, as they’re also dead-last in net penalty yards (-149).