At this point, 14 weeks of NFL action are in the books and we’re entering the home stretch. With 17 games, there’s no perfect solution mathematically, but all teams have now had their bye weeks and have four more contests remaining before the playoff picture is finalized.
Seven teams have already been eliminated while four have clinched playoff berths – and even division titles on the AFC side of things. That means five more sports are still up for grabs on either half of the bracket, although realistically, there is a pretty wide gap between the franchises who simply have to take care of business on their end compared to ten times “in the hunt” officially but sat below .500.
As always, these are power *rankings* rather than standings, meaning teams with worse records may be listed above others with slightly better results so far or who they’ve lost to directly. The purpose of this exercise is to project how many of the other 31 franchises each side would beat head-to-head right now and not weigh likelihood of securing a certain seed in the postseason or compare to results from months ago.
Let’s dig in:
1. Detroit Lions (12-1)
Personally, I picked the Packers to win this divisional rematch at Detroit due to how banged up the Lions were defensively coming into this matchup on a short week – and that attrition is the one legit concern I have with them. I’m not 100% sure I wouldn’t do the same if these two sides met a third time in the playoffs, but for the time being, there’s no reason to put anybody else in the top spot. The Lions haven’t lost since the middle of September (Buccaneers) and during their 11-game win streak, they’ve manhandled inferior competition, while making the key plays needed to get the job done in close contests. What they’ve done from a roster-building perspective had allowed them to overcome injuries or sub-par performances from individual pieces in certain spots. Their defense feels a lot more like a cohesive unit than in years past, when this offense is hitting on all cylinders, they can just attack you in too many different ways, and they have the top-ranked special teams in terms of DVOA. They have now separated themselves as number one in total DVOA (43.2%) with a point differential 52 better than any other team in the league (+183).
2. Philadelphia Eagles (11-2)
If not for Detroit, the Eagles would pretty easily be the hottest group in the league, now winners of nine straight. Having said that, their performance against the now 3-10 Panthers was anything but convincing, especially considering they had just taken control of a dangerous Ravens squad in the second half the week prior at Baltimore. In fact, if Xavier Legette catches a wide-open post route, we probably have a shocking upset on your hands. Nevertheless, this is the best I’ve felt about Philly since their Super Bowl run two years ago. Saquon Barkley has elevated what already was an elite set-up for running the ball, with at least a top-two offensive line, and when Jalen Hurts takes care of the ball along with adding a few key third-down scrambles with those pass-catching weapons healthy, they just overwhelm you with talent. Meanwhile, their defense has been elite since the start of October, allowing the third-lowest success rate (40.1%) and the fewest yards per play (4.7 YPP) in the league, with a deep and talented group of D-linemen, a newly invigorated secondary with the addition of a couple of standout rookies and finally quality play on the linebacker level, with Zack Baun performing like a legit All-Pro.
3. Buffalo Bills (10-3)
Losing a back-and-forth thriller at the Rams this past Sunday definitely hurts the Bills in terms of chances for the AFC’s number one seed, especially considering the Chiefs squeaked out another narrow victory a few hours later, but it doesn’t make me feel any less about them necessarily. There’s absolutely reason to worry about what the defense looked like, but a blocked punt was the difference in this contest and during their previous seven-game win streak, five of them came by multiple scores – including a clutch performance against Kansas City, delivered by superman himself in Josh Allen, who has been borderline unstoppable this year outside of back-to-back losses at Baltimore and Houston. For the most part, I’ve been really impressed with what Sean McDermott has been able to do without a stacked roster defensively and how he’s gotten fill-ins to step up in big spots. That’ll bode well for them once January rolls around, even though the lack of true difference-makers apart from the quarterback. The offense is constructed now where they can play much more to run the ball (top-three in EPA for both) and defensively they create a lot of negative plays. It’s when you get their safeties involved and force them to angle for the ball that they become vulnerable.
4. Kansas City Chiefs (12-1)
At this point, there has to be some black devil magic involved with all these close wins the Chiefs are able to pull out of their rear-end. Certainly a lot of it is a result of clutch play in crucial situations and generally I don’t believe in the narrative that referees are gifting them games, but that botched snap on Black Friday was whistled dead by one of the guys on the sideline and you can look back to week three, when an obvious pass interference call in the end-zone was missed late. However, more often than that, it’s a role player coming up with a game-changing play when they need it most of Patrick Mahomes creating magic on third/fourth down (converting a league-high 53.7% of those combined). Statistically, there’s nothing that’ll excite about how they play, as they rank 23rd in yards per play on offense (5.1), their defense has ranked just 21st in EPA per play since their week six bye (0.065), and they are only tenth in point differential overall (+56). What they can hang their hat on is being a top-ten unit on the ground on both sides of the ball and having more experience than anybody at winning these tight contests. The AFC playoffs are going through Arrowhead once again – let’s see if they can keep that up!
5. Minnesota Vikings (11-2)
I understand that the Vikings may not feel like it based on our preseason expectations for this team, but the Vikings are just one win away from the top record in the league, and when they put together these complete performances in all three phases of the game, you can envision them beating just about anybody (rookie kicker Will Reichard missed just his third of 17 kicks on Sunday). The defense has been a monster all season long. They’re number one in DVOA and they are borderline impossible to run the ball against – unless you’re called the Lions. Their aggressive style of play invites a handful of deep shots being completed, but with the way they mix up looks, they easily overcome those with negative plays and takeaways, where they rank second in both (120 sacks + TFLs; 27 takeaways). Meanwhile, we’ve certainly seen some volatility still from Sam Darnold when he’s trying to force throws to his primary read or puts the ball at risk in the wrong moments. Yet, he’s largely he’s been able to cash in on the majority of opportunities Kevin O’Connell has drawn up through play-designs down the field, along with adding more in terms of a play-extension element than previous iterations of this attack with Kirk Cousins, who just received a not-so-warm welcome back to Minnesota. Also, they’re easily first in net penalty yardage in their favor (273).
6. Baltimore Ravens (8-5)
I already know that I’ll be told the Ravens lost in Pittsburgh three weeks ago and that the three teams directly below them have better records, but I think the path for this group to beat anybody and make a deep playoff I believe is clearer than those other squads in questions. Even after a couple of sub-par games against two top defenses in the Steelers and Eagles, Baltimore is still averaging half a yard more per play than any other team in the league (6.8 YPP), and they’ve turned an NFL-best three quarters of their red-zone trips into touchdowns. They’ve dealt with some of the most crushing drops you’re going to find, taking huge conversions off the ball or directly resulting in Lamar Jackson’s three interceptions – in terms of adjusted yards per pass attempt (9.0), he’d have a good yard more than the rest of the league. Defensively, they’ve regressed pretty dramatically from last year under Mike Macdonald, without pass-rushers who consistently get home individually, Roquan Smith’s presence in coverage not being as palpable and Brandon Stephens having struggled massively at the catch-point. However, they’re allowing basically a full yard less per carry than the NFL average (3.5 YPC), and those busts in coverage from early in the year have become far less frequent, even though up to this point they’ve allowed over 300 more air yards than any other team. When looking at DVOA for the team as a whole, they’re closer to first (Lions) than third (Bills), despite everybody around them has at least won double-digit games. Where they’ve really hurt themselves are a net negative 268 yards on penalties compared to their opponents and having lost 22 points to missed kicks – the total they lost their five games by.
7. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-3)
Until recently, I was very dubious about viability of this team in January, when they face the best competition who can challenge them in ways, where particularly on offense, they can’t keep up. However, I do believe we’ve seen Russell Wilson add something more on top of the vertical shots outside the numbers, even if it’s largely just checking the ball down on time along with a couple of seam shots. Any metric you look at will tell you that they’re an average offense and slightly below that running the ball, but outside of gamescripts where they’re put in catch-up mode, that can be enough with what else they bring to the table. Pittsburgh has the fifth-ranked defense in EPA per play (-0.072), in large part thanks to leading the league with 28 takeaways, but they’re also incredibly sound tacklers, having missed fewer attempted stops (44) than anybody else. Nick Herbig stepping up as the complement to T.J. Watt off the opposite edge has stepped up massively in the absence of Alex Highsmith and there’s just so few missed assignments that they often set up opponents to beat themselves. Overall, they’re tied with Buffalo for the league’s best turnover differential (+17) and they also feature the second-best special teams unit by DVOA.
8. Green Bay Packers (9-4)
Losing the season series to the Lions has erased any chance for the Packers to vie for the NFC’s top seed, considering they also came up just short against the Eagles all the way back in week one. So at this point, they would pretty much have to run the table and have the Vikings slip up twice outside of their rematch, to move out of the sixth seed. Nonetheless, I do believe they have the type of coaching and firepower to be a tough for anybody once the postseason rolls around. Green Bay’s offense ranks fourth in DVOA, with a stable ground game (top-ten in most categories) and an explosive aerial attack. They’re tied with the Ravens for first in net yards per pass play (7.9 NY/PA). That style of aggressive play through the air simply leads to putting the ball at risk, with 15 turnovers so far. Meanwhile, their defense has forced what’s tied for third in most turnovers (24), although otherwise they’ve been average at best by most metrics. Where I am optimistic that this group can deliver the sparks needed for a run through these NFC road tests they’re about to face is the aggressiveness this front played with this past Thursday Night. We see the Lions adjust at halftime with a few change-ups to take advantage of that style, but this way they can at least dictate stretches of play.
9. Los Angeles Chargers (8-5)
Where everything starts with this Chargers team to me is how much more reliable this defense has been in year one of this new regime, despite starting a couple of fifth-round rookies at corner right now and interior D-linemen who hadn’t been plus contributors in years past. Those guys have stepped up in a system that has provided them more structure along with the way they change up zone distributions in obvious passing situations. As a unit, they rank exactly sixth in both DVOA and EPA, allowing opponents to convert a league-worst 27.5% of their drives into points, while turning nearly half as many into turnovers – and even when they do allow opponents to get into scoring range, they force those guys to settle for three’s as much as anyone. Meanwhile, their offense has only turned the ball over a league-low six times and are tied for tenth with 42 completions of 20+ yards. That’s generally a recipe for success, with a quarterback who can produce explosives while avoiding negative plays. Where L.A. has run into issues, especially since the loss of J.K. Dobbins to IR, is that OC Greg Roman hasn’t provided the run game to complement it, being down at 26th in rushing success rate (36.5%). And we’ve seen the vulnerability of the guys on the back-end when they’ve gone up against the league’s most dangerous passing crews.
10. Seattle Seahawks (8-5)
For two straight years now, I was much higher on this Seahawks squad than general consensus and even though I started to have my doubts about them when they entered their bye week at 4-5. Over the last month, they’ve now gone undefeated and have showcased the ability to get the job done in different ways. Across these past four games, Seattle ranks behind only the Broncos in terms of defensive EPA per play (-0.142) – and that includes two pick-sixes in that wild Monday night game in Denver. Now that they’re largely healthy, we can see this vision by Mike Macdonald to build a unit in the image of what he had in Baltimore, and as we’ve gone along here, you can see/feel his fingertips on what they look like more and more. Meanwhile, seeing their offense commit to the running game this past week and enforcing their will on a division rival in Arizona with the bruising style of backup RB Zach Charbonnet was encouraging. More balance even in neutral gamescripts is something I’ve been waiting for from them, considering their issues into protection, which really manifest themselves when constantly being in third-and-long. Geno Smith has delivered some big-time strikes for conversions on those, but it also invites him forcing the ball into tight windows, rather than giving him more space when calling up those shot plays off play-action.
11. Denver Broncos (8-5)
While Baltimore being 8-5 to me doesn’t quite reflect the quality of play they’ve showcased across the whole season, I had a tough time separating the four other hopeful contenders with the same record, hence why they’re all bunched together. Seattle got the slight nod here based on their quarterback having displayed more problem-solving skills over a longer period of time, but I think you can make an argument that Denver is the most complete squad among those in question. Their defense has been lights out all year under Vance Joseph. They’re number one in EPA per play (-0.110), sacks (47) and touchdowns scored themselves (four). They have the last legit shutdown corner standing in Patrick Surtain to structure their coverages around, but so many guys have taken the next step this season like Nik Bonitto, Zach Allen and Riley Moss (who I just included in my video on under-the-radar studs). On the flipside, they are a few warts to this offense that may show up against top-tier defensive play-callers who can kind of put them in a box when they shut down the run and screen game on early downs and put the game in the hands of Bo Nix. Still, the rookie QB has continued to become more decisive as Sean Payton has relied more heavily on designs that simplify decisions on him, along with allowing the O-line to excel with fewer defined dropback settings. Overall, they’re the number two team in what I’ve labelled the “HRF.com static” a long time ago, beginning their possessions a full five yards further ahead than their opponents on average.
12. Houston Texans (8-5)
Coming into this season, the reason why many considered the Texans a Super Bowl “dark horse” was the fact that they had the potential to be a top-five offense AND defense. With the reigning Offensive Rookie of the Year at quarterback, two 1000-yard receivers, a much more reliable veteran running back in Joe Mixon, and an offensive line that by all likelihood wasn’t going to repeat an outlier year, in which they set a new metric in “adjusted games lost” (to injury), you might’ve even felt better about the first half of that statement. Unfortunately, that has not come true, as their production on the ground has been much more sporadic (second-lowest rushing success rate at 33.1%), up front the individual pieces have all gotten beat at too a, high a rate in protection and C.J. Stroud hasn’t been able to maintain his insane pace of bailing them out in tough third-and-longs/fourth-downs. As we flip this thing around, the defense has actually more than lived up to the hype in the second year under DeMeco Ryans. They’re the third-best unit in terms of DVOA and number one in success rate (38.6%), thanks to a combination of being tied for the third-most takeaways (24) and an NFL-high 126 negative plays created (sacks + TFLs). As we project forward to January, I’m just forward if OC Bobby Slowik can find answers in a game of wits against the game’s best.
13. Washington Commanders (8-5)
Looking at where Washington came from and the expectations we had for them coming into the season, they’ve surprised me even more than Denver, still a game up on the rest of the NFC for that final wildcard berth. You had to be concerned with seeing them lose three straight games following their 8-2 starts, considering how much tougher it was for them to spam those easy-buttons in a fast-paced attack when facing quality competition with the know-how and talent to force them to adjust. However, even with some of the cracks they’ve shown at times, putting 42 points on the Titans did change my tone a little bit on them. Altogether, their offense has still scored on the highest rate of drives (52.2%), while turning the ball over at the fourth-lowest (6.0%), with a quarterback in Jayden Daniels who is a nightmare to stop as a scrambler on crucial downs. Defensively, I do believe they’ve come down to earth a little bit, surrendering 5.8 yards per rush and even when they do force you to drop back, relying on Dante Fowler as their most effective edge rusher and still awaiting the return of Marshon Lattimore to give them more stability at one of those outside corner spots.
14. Los Angeles Rams (7-6)
This brings us to a group of seven teams all either a game above or below that .500 mark. Atop that section to me are a Rams, coming off a thrilling 44-42 defeat of number three on my list (Buffalo). To me, they are certainly the most dangerous group among it and even beyond that potentially. When they have a healthy trio of Matt Stafford, Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp, paired with decent pass-protection and balance with Kyren Williams behind this big offensive line, you’re going to have a tough time slowing them down. They’re tied for fourth league-wide in offensive success rate (48.3%) with the Ravens and the team right below them. Defensively, they are definitive concerns in their make-up – they’re slightly undersized up front, you can play around with the eyes of their linebackers and their corners are quite vulnerable when you’re able to isolate them deep down the field. So while they’ve shown their toughness to battle against the NFL’s best, they kind of need to play games on their terms, where they go back-and-forth trading scores and then their D-line can stop the run on the way to their quarterback as penetrators, since they’re fringe top-ten in both pressure rate (23.3%) and percentage of drives they take the ball away (10.6%).
15. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-6)
Similarly to the Rams, the Bucs have come roaring back and they’re actually a game up for their division (really half a game since the Falcons own the tie-breaker having gone 2-0 head-to-head). And since I already referenced it, they’re tied with L.A. and Baltimore for fourth in success rate offensively (48.3%). Baker Mayfield has found the right level of confidence for when to push the ball vertically and when to check the ball down. More importantly, they’ve been so much more efficient in the run game, with a bunch of cool gap-scheme designs brought in OC Liam Coen. After being near the bottom of the league for multiple years in basically all relevant rushing metrics, they’re now top-five in yards per carry (5.1) and first down rate on the ground (28.1%), with guys like Bucky Irving, who add some more juice. Also, only the Chiefs with that dark magic are converting third downs at a higher rate (47.2%). Going through the statistics, there’s nothing that really stood out to me about the Bucs defense in a positive sense. They haven’t been particularly sound in their run fits all the time and you see stretches where opponents are able to rip off a few chunks. And there’s certainly some volatility with their style of play, where the bring all these different zone blitzes and simulated pressures, but do get burned at times when those get blocked up.
16. San Francisco 49ers (6-7)
Watching these Niners in week 12 and 13 lose by 25+ points at Green Bay and Buffalo, I was fully ready to write them off, saying they’re simply too banged up and have dug themselves too much of a whole. And then they absolutely thrash a Bears team that had three extra days to prepare after nearly beating the number one team in these rankings (Detroit), with an extra shot in the arm in form of change at the top with interim head coach Thomas Brown. Even though it may be more of a longshot, there’s still a path for San Francisco to win the West or earn that final Wildcard berth. Only the Ravens have averaged a higher yards-per-play mark through 14 weeks (6.3) and I’d argue that Brock Purdy has never been better in the true dropback game, including what he adds out of structure. The issue is that we don’t see as many true break-away explosives and the fact that they’ve turned the ball over 20 times already (tied for fifth-most). What’s been more disappointing based on the bodies available to them – their defense and special teams haven’t nearly been as a good as the units they’ve had during previous NFC Championship and even Super Bowl runs. Nobody up front outside of Nick Bosa can get to the passer, that linebacker spot voided by Dre Greenlaw has been rough and they haven’t been quite as sound tackling the ball. Also, only the Cowboys are allowing their opponents to convert a higher rate of their red-zone possessions into touchdowns (72.1%). On top of that, they’re 31st in special teams DVOA.
17. Miami Dolphins (6-7)
One win the 49ers almost have to bank comes in a couple of weeks at Miami, where the Dolphins have been even more efficient on offense than those guys since the return of Tua Tagovailoa. During that 4-2 run, they’ve led the NFL with a 50.9% success rate, where they’ve turned the quarterback into much more of a point guard, where he’s not just throwing the ball to a spot a lot of times, but rather does read out concepts and delivers underneath, allowing those skill-position players to run after the catch. Defensively, they have regressed a little bit over the second half of their preceding schedule, but in general I’ve really liked what I’ve seen from Anthony Weaver implementing this system coming over from Baltimore. With their duo of edge rushers on injured reserve, they don’t have guys who can consistently win their one-on-one rush snaps (sixth-lowest pressure rate at 18.1%) and they don’t take the ball away a whole lot (also tied for sixth with 11 turnovers forced). Yet, they have been excellent situationally, when they can change up the picture on opponents and make it tough for quarterbacks to decipher what’s going on, ranking top-six in both third-down (34.4%) and red-zone TD percentage (48.7%).
18. Indianapolis Colts (6-7)
The final AFC team I want to discuss here with an actual shot at sneaking into the playoffs are the Colts. The reason for that is that they’re now travelling to Denver off their bye week to potentially bag a head-to-head win against their direct competitors for the final Wildcard spot, before finishing the season against three opponents with a combined eight wins so far; but also my lack of trust for the Texans to maintain their two-game lead with a much tougher remaining schedule, which they finish off at Tennessee – who they just to prior to the bye. Anthony Richardson has continued to perform better than the box score might indicate, with timely downfield shots and scrambles. What Shane Steichen has been cooking up since the re-insertion of the uber-talented quarterback has not only enhanced his strengths but also challenged opponents through more avenues. Where the limitations may come from is a Gus Bradley-coordinated defense that is very opposed in the sense of being too basic with rushing four and being the only group to play cover-three on more than 50% of snaps. They do have the guys who can win their matchups up front, but when they don’t, this unit has missed 19(!) more tackles than any other group in the league (115).
19. Arizona Cardinals (6-7)
About a month ago, I released a video on how the Cardinals have become “NFL bullies”, less so based on being that winning engine that can challenge the powers of the NFC, but rather their style of play, where it’s a lot of heavy personnel and an at-you gap-scheme rushing attack, along with their situational aggressiveness on defense. Since then, they lost a game at Minnesota where they outperformed their opponents pretty much across the board on the stat sheet, but kicked six field goals, and got punched in the mouth by their division rival Seahawks, especially in the second of those meetings. On his best days, Kyler Murray can be one of the toughest guys to defend, but then he’ll also have a few games where he throws one or two of the dumbest interceptions you’re going to see and they can’t overcome it, because they’re forced out of the style of play they want to be in, especially considering the one guy that was supposed to build an incredible bond with him in Marvin Harrison Jr., he hasn’t been on the same wavelength with all season long. On the flipside, I applauded their attacking style of play on defense, where they create tackles for loss on early downs and dictate terms to the opposition in true dropback situations. However, when they don’t get to those and the other team is in charge, the lack of quality in individual pieces does show up, which is why they’re now down to 31st in defensive success rate for the season.
20. Atlanta Falcons (6-7)
While I didn’t make a video to specifically discuss the positives for the Falcons, they’ve been similary disappointing over the last month, going 0-4 and suddenly looking up at the Bucs for the NFC South crown. Over that stretch, Kirk Cousins has thrown zero touchdowns compared to eight interceptions. On top of simply not being able to move, whether he barely meets Bijan Robinson at the mesh point on outside zone calls or much less can boot off those, he’s so far in his head now that even when he sees that he shouldn’t throw the ball due a defender being in the lane, he still lets it go without conviction regularly. After seeing him discombobulate in his return to Minnesota, I believe it may be time to see what eighth overall pick Michael Penix Jr. can do with what I view as an excellent supporting cast. At the same time, what we’ve seen from this defense under Raheem Morris and Jimmy Lake has been equally frustrating. Once again, they are on track for a league-low in sacks, sitting at 19 so far, and only the Panthers have allowed their opponents to convert third downs at a higher rate (46.3%). Because of the time opposing quarterback have against them, the lack of quality corners who can stay glued to their guys is that much more apparent.
21. Cincinnati Bengals (5-8)
For no other team in the NFL is there such a clear asymmetry between the two sides of the ball than with Cincinnati. Outside of that no-show week one performance against the Patriots all-around, their offense has been lighting it up all season long. They’re top in DVOA, EPA and yards per play. I wouldn’t say they’re a particularly consistent group running the ball (ranking 30th league-wide with a 34.5% rushing success rate), but Chase Brown presents enough of a threat through that avenue to provide opportunities to work those perimeter matchups, where the duo of Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins feels as dynamic as ever. Only the Packers have racked up more than 40+ yard plays through the air (12). Sadly, their opponents have consistently looked like they’re on the same level as that group going up against this Cincinnati defense. Other than Trey Hendrickson shockingly leading the league with 12.5 sacks, there’s really nothing that unit can hang their hat on. They’ve surrendered the second-highest rushing success rate (46.3%), nobody else has created fewer negative plays (63 combined sacks and TFLs) but then they also give up 6.7 yards every time the opposing QB drops back (tied for fourth-highest).
22. New Orleans Saints (5-8)
This is another team I was ready to write off weeks ago, but I can’t quite do so yet based on the fact that all they’d need to literally host a playoff game is run the ball themselves while the Bucs and Falcons both go 2-2 the rest of the way (unless one of those losses comes against the out-of-conference Chargers) or you take off one more win for all of them. At this point it’d be mind-boggling to see them do so, now having to figure out again who to go with in place of Derek Carr, but if they can continue to hit a couple of big plays through the air every week and block a kick or flip momentum in some other way on special teams, they can squeeze out an extra win or two. The Saints certainly can’t rely on this defense to be a difference-making unit at this point however, as they’re with the division-rival Carolina in terms of allowing a full five yards per carry and no other team has surrendered more yardage after the catch (1724), with a lack of enthusiasm to put their bodies in the way of runners. Having said all of that, I was pretty shocked to find out that New Orleans is first in the “HRF.com static”, with a positive starting field position differential of +6.3 yards on average compared to the teams they’ve faced.
23. Chicago Bears (4-9)
If teams like the Jets and Cowboys have been the most disappointing based on preseason expectations, the one squad that hasn’t at all lived up to the hype they were receiving throughout the offseason would be Chicago. The offense has been on a rollercoaster all year long and their rookie quarterback seems to be sick from it when to watch him at the sidelines. Caleb Williams has shown the ability to handle the pre-snap operation, deliver strikes from within the pocket, but then also manipulate rush angles and create secondary plays. It’s just that the environment he’s been in has encouraged some of his worst behavior, where his feet aren’t tied to the concept and he gets to his answers with conviction. That’s paired with a ground game that lacked creativity for large chunks of the season and that’s how they’ve averaged 0.2 yards less per play (4.5 YPP) than any other NFL team. However, what actually shocked me was the fact that they’re also allowing the second-highest YPP mark defensively (5.9). They have an excellent secondary and range on the second level, but you can run at them if you push them vertically and they haven’t gotten enough juice out of their pass-rush juice. Still, to be a top-ten unit on third downs and in the red-zone, paired with a +10 turnover differential, you’d expect better than having won less than a third of their games.
24. Dallas Cowboys (5-8)
The Cowboys may be the only team in the league for which a blocked punt results ends up being a negative play for. Even if that doesn’t happen, they probably have the last possession of regulation against the Bengals, with a chance to set up a game-winning field goal, but a guy just elevated to the active roster clearly wasn’t ready for the moment when the bullets were flying. Dallas still has the third-highest ranked special teams unit in terms of DVOA, but in regards to situational awareness and getting the subtle details down, there have been some gripes with this coaching staff and particularly the head-man all year long. Obviously, with Dak Prescott out, they were going to be behind the eight-ball offensively, but a combination of inexperience in some and age in other spots has set up the offensive line to regress, they’ve struggled to find secondary receiving options and until recently, they had wasted rushing attempts to the second coming of Zeke. Meanwhile, their defense Dead-last in rush EPA (0.080) and the pendulum has swung too far from creating takeaways to being vulnerable on the back-end. When they can get you into obvious passing situations with that group of rushers, that’s where they can really make noise, leading the NFL in pressure rate (29.1%) and allowing opponents to just convert 34.2% of their third down attempts (third-best). Yet, once opponents get into the red-zone, they Dallas allows them to convert those trips into six points at the highest rate (76.9%).
25. New York Jets (3-10)
Let’s call it how it is – this Jets season has been an utter catastrophe. They were people whose opinions I legitimately respect that thought they might make a run at the Super Bowl and now they’re already fully eliminated from playoff contention with a month to go. And even though you can look at some depth issues in their front-seven and we can argue that they should’ve already made the Davante Adams trade before the year started, this isn’t really much of a talent issue. You didn’t put an offensive support system in place that does anything but appease to the veteran quarterback, who has largely been unwilling to read out concepts or adapt his responses to pressure, while your primary runner simply has lacked the dynamism we had been used to from him. Meanwhile, you overreacted to a 2-3 start and fired head coach Robert Saleh, now with Jeff Ulbrich having to concern himself more with the day-to-day operations, the details on defense have been less sharp, forcing them to drop off from elite to 20th-ranked in EPA per play. They can still put you behind the sticks and they’re the only defense who at this point has surrendered fewer than 1000 yards after the catch, but they don’t take the ball away or get opponents off the field effectively enough.
26. Carolina Panthers (3-10)
With how inept he looked through the first two weeks, which ended up getting him benched for five games, I never expected to say this – but Bryce Young deserves better. He did everything in his powers to lead the team back against the Chiefs and if Xavier Legette holds onto that deep ball at the end, we talk about him having led a 97-yard game-winning touchdown drive on the Eagles defense. Ultimately, you’d think things will work out in their favor, because they’ll probably have a premium draft selection – which actually belongs to them – and should feel good about having a quarterback who now plays with that level of confidence again he displayed at Alabama to make him the first overall pick. Now you need someone outside of 34-year-old Adam Thielen to reliably catch the damn ball. Also, you hate to see rookie RB Jonathon Brooks tear his ACL again after taking a long time in his recovery. With the commitment of resources to that side of the ball combined with a few key injuries, we did see this defense simply run out of fuel. They can’t slow down the run without Derrick Brown in the middle, nobody consistently gets to the passer (lowest pressure rate in the league at 15.9%), and there have been too many busts in coverage. While I feel much better about the experience on offense since Bryce’s re-insertion, across the full season, they’re a bottom-four offense and defense in regards to DVOA.
27. Cleveland Browns (3-10)
Speaking of teams that have disappointed on both sides of the ball, this year has shown us that major changes are in store. When Deshaun Watson was healthy, he was the worst starter in the league and you felt that dragging down the rest of the roster. Following the torn Achilles that may end up putting an end to that horrible experiment, which will continue to have major financial implications, we’ve at least seen some life from this offense in particular. Jameis Winston may feature the highest turnover-worthy-play rate (4.7%) aside from Drew Lock, but at least they’re more fun to watch with the way they push the ball down the field. They have scored on an NFL-low 27.0% of their drives, in part due to turnovers but also being abysmal on third downs, where they’ve converted five percent less than any other unit (28.3%). The real story in comparison to last season, when they won 11 games, is the drop-off defensively from a unit that was top-two by basically any conceivable metric to an average group. They do have a Defensive Player of the Year front-runner in Myles Garrett for what the impact plays he’s delivered and they lead the league with 86 tackles for loss, but there are way too many explosives on the ground (behind only the Giants with 16 runs of 20+ runs) and their corners not named Denzel Ward are so much more vulnerable deep. As a team, the Browns rank ahead of only the team right below them in these rankings when it comes total DVOA (-35.6%).
28. New England Patriots (3-10)
As I just mentioned, the Pats rank dead-last in overall team DVOA (-36.0%), being 31st on both offense and defense. That’s a bad place to start from. Having said that, expectations for this roster should’ve been tempered all along and I don’t really understand why head coach Jerod Mayo has been put on the hot seat by some, outside of a few moments where he might’ve been a little too honest with the media. Since one of those, where he said this team is a little soft following a defeat to the Jaguars in London, they’ve gone 2-3, with a chance to put together a game-winning drive in all but one of those losses. Rookie quarterback Drake Maye has shown highly encouraging flashes with big-time throws past the sticks and valuable scrambles, despite clear deficiencies in terms of receiving options and offensive line play, where they average below four yards per carry if you take out the QB himself. The defense has not lived up to the standards in New England, but to be fair – they’ve been without their most disruptive interior D-linemen in Christian Barmore, their main early-down thumper at linebacker in Ja’Whaun Bentley and a swiss army knife in Jabrill Peppers on the back-end for most of the season. Opposing teams have been able to stay on schedule for the most part against them, but at least Christian Gonzalez has looked like an All-Pro corner and I feel pretty good about them bouncing back in 2025.
29. Tennessee Titans (3-10)
When I was putting together an initial version of these rankings prior to last week’s slate of games, I had Tennessee four spots higher and would’ve told you that they’re better than their record indicates. Yet, then they lose an absolute slop-fest to the Jaguars at home, where they throw away multiple opportunities to take control of the game. I do believe that Will Levis has calibrated the big-play rate compared to putting the ball at risk in a more favorable way for his team, and Tony Pollard has run the ball effectively behind this big offensive line under the tutelage of one of the game’s best position coaches in Bill Callahan. However, only the Raiders have turned the ball over more often (23) and they’re a bottom-six unit in both third-down and red-zone TD percentage. On the flipside, I would argue that the defense has performed above what the final stat sheet would tell you, because the dam broke in a couple of blowout losses, but they’re slightly above average in EPA per play actually (0.008), as the other phases have put more pressure on them, when they’ve ranked fifth in rushing success rate (36.6%) and have shown the ability to keep opposing quarterbacks off balance with how the variety they’ve showcased in their pressure packages in combination with different coverages under DC Dennard Wilson. they’re still dead-last in DVOA on special teams
30. Jacksonville Jaguars (3-10)
I know that some people may tell me I’m dumb for putting the Jags below the Titans when they literally just beat them at their place this past Sunday, but this goes back to the guidelines of this exercise and how many other teams I believe they could win against right now. For Jacksonville, a matchup that makes you reminisce about the Thursday Night Color Rush days, where Tennessee turns two goal-to-go situations into zero points is one of the very few ways I can see them emerge victorious. And of course a big factor here is playing with Mac Jones at quarterback, after Trevor Lawrence took one of the dirtiest hits we had seen in a while three weeks ago. Across the three games the backup has started, they’ve scored a grand total of 23 points. Transferring more carries over to the bruising Tank Bigsby has led to fewer run stuff, but the offensive scheme, in particular the passing game, still desperately lack ingenuity as well as an eye for detail under Press Taylor and Doug Pederson. Simultaneously, they rank dead-last in defensive DVOA and EPA per play by a solid gap (0.143). The guys up front have their individual moments, but they don’t impact games enough collectively, on the back-end it’s basically all cover-one or -two with little disguise and quarterback have no problem figuring that out, as they’re tied for the fewest takeaways (eight) as a unit.
31. Las Vegas Raiders (2-11)
We’ve reached the bottom-two of the NFL and while you can make a case statistically that a few more teams above them should be included here, I do believe that this duo has truly separated themselves from the rest of the league in a negative sense. The Raiders in particular are prime challengers for the least enjoyable brand of football – and now having landed on QB3 Desmond Ridder due to injury won’t help matters. They rank dead-last in offensive EPA per play (-0.149), sitting at the bottom of the league in pretty much every meaningful rushing metric and having turned the ball over an NFL-high 25 times. Meanwhile, they are tied for the fewest turnovers forced themselves (eight), giving them easily the worst margin out there (-17). Considering the losses they’ve suffered up front, they’ve at least been a decent run-stopping unit, but they’re dead-last in dropback EPA (0.251) because they can’t put heat on quarterbacks and simply lack cover-talent when they get those guys isolated. Overall, Las Vegas is dead-last in the HRF.com metric, beginning their drives an average of 4.8 yards further back than their opponents. Neither side of the ball is equipped to handle starting from disadvantageous circumstances.
32. New York Giants (2-11)
We’ve reached the dead-end of the list, with a team that I’m about to watch live on Sunday, most likely getting obliterated by the Ravens. I don’t feel as bad about their future than some other 32nd-ranked teams in the past, but for the time being, whether they’re on your TV or one of the guys in that locker room, it’s a pretty dreadful experience, best illustrated by the weekly comments of rookie wide receiver Malik Nabers on the state of the franchise. Only the Bears have averaged fewer yards per play (4.7 YPP) than these Giants and even when they have gotten into scoring range, no team has converted a lower rate of their red-zone trips into touchdowns (41.7%). And among the quarterbacks with 100+ dropbacks, Drew Lock’s turnover-worthy play rate is 1.3% higher than anybody else (6.0%). On defense, they’re at least slightly below and slightly above average respectively in those categories previously, but with the Raiders and Jaguars being the only two teams with fewer takeaways (ten), that makes their margin for error in combination with that kind of offense even smaller. When they’ve had Dexter Lawrence playing a Defensive Player of the Year level, that unit has had their good stretches, but DC Shane Bowen doesn’t have a whole lot to work with in the secondary. If they have their choice of quarterback next April, they may turn things around quicker than the current vibe might suggest though.
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