We’re a month into the NFL season and as always for me, this is the first time to take the temperature of the league, stacking up all 32 teams against one another. Records are obviously the biggest indicator, but especially with how the early season has played out, I think there’s quite a significant discrepancy between the quality of team and the first number next to their name in several cases.
Whenever I post any list like this, I like to remind people that these are power “rankings” rather than standings – anybody can simply look those up themselves and I did add records next to each squad. However, you will see groups with slightly worse records placed above others, who may have benefitted from a weaker schedule so far or just weren’t as impressive to me in the way they were able to emerge victorious. The same is true for one side outranking another, who they might’ve lost to already, since this is intended to be a placement based on how many sides everybody should be favored against at this moment, rather than one specific matchup.
Let’s get to it:
1. Minnesota Vikings (4-0) 
Yes, I almost can’t believe it either. A team that was projected to finish fourth in their own division, which some people seemed to give up for before foot was even put to leather, based on their rookie quarterback missing the entire season, now sits atop these rankings, with only one other undefeated group in the NFL. What gave Minnesota the nod over Kansas City for me was simply that they’re a more complete squad. Looking at the advanced metrics, they’re in the top-eight in success rate on dropbacks and run plays each on offense and defense. There’ll be some variance with the way defensive coordinator Brian Flores wants to operate, as they’re in the bottom-ten in terms of explosive passes allowed (8%), but the chaos he creates and how they keep opponents off balance with the way they pair the rush with the picture behind it, should continue to yield sacks and takeaways, as they currently rank first (17) and second (10) respectively in those categories. That’s how they’re number in defensive DVOA (-34.3%) and EPA per play (-0.189). And I won’t act like Sam Darnold hasn’t invited the opportunity for turnovers on his end – which weren’t always taken advantage of – but the aggressiveness to attack tight windows and push the ball down the field when there are opportunities to do so, makes this a dangerous unit than previous iterations, I’d argue. And of course, if you have Justin Jefferson playing like the best receiver in football, you can force balls his way.
2. Kansas City Chiefs (4-0) 
Of course, I can’t put the reigning back-to-back Super Bowl champs and second undefeated team any lower than number two here. I thought the vibes were off coming into the year, which they were able to mask in their opening win over Baltimore, but at least their offense now has serious question marks. Kareem Hunt – who they literally called up from the couch two weeks ago – looked like their best and most relied-upon running back this past Sunday, with the extended absence of Isiah Pacheco, their two starting offensive tackles rank 55th and 61st/76th out of 78 qualified names according to PFF so far, Travis Kelce only just finally woke up and with ugly-looking Rashee Rice injury, they don’t have a single full-time contributor at wide receiver left, to where you’re now probably asking first-round pick Xavier Worthy to be that, when he’s primarily out there to clear space vertically and target a couple of times over the top per game. With that in mind, I do have to remind myself that they have Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes – whose level of play should only rise considering EVERYTHING he’s shown in his career and they still rank third in offensive success rate (49.4%) – combined with a Steve Spagnuolo-coached defense that hasn’t given up 20 first downs in a game since the opener. They already are alone in first place for the AFC with a win over the Ravens and chances to do the same against the Bills and Texans, for the conference to go through KC again.
3. Houston Texans (3-1) 
Third I have a team that I projected to lose week one already, but has only done so at the hands of the number one on this list – even if so in dominant fashion (34-7). Houston in no way has been cruising by opponents, with their three wins coming by a total of ten points – so just over a field goal on average – and they haven’t come to juggernauts necessarily, between the Colts, Bears and Jaguars (who own a combined 4-8 record). Having said that, it never felt like the opposing team was in control in those matchups and there are some characteristics of this team that have me pretty confident about them long-term. First of course is quarterback C.J. Stroud, who has constantly bailed out his team win key conversions on third-and-long. Nico Collins has entered the A.J. Brown-level force of nature tier, pushing the other receiving options down one spot further in the pecking order than where they’d be for the majority of teams, and while it was against the Colts, a healthy Joe Mixon rushed for 159 yards in their opener. Having said that, I do believe this offense needs to improve their early-down efficiency in order to not put as much pressure on C.J. through, with more early-down (under-center) play-action. Defensively, they’re not as effective against the run as in 2023, due to not selling it for it in such drastic manners, but I like how much more hands-on they are in the secondary and they’re tied for fourth in sacks (14). The biggest thing they have to clean up are offensive penalties, especially pre-snap, as they’ve given up the third-most yards per game (81.5 YPG).
4. Buffalo Bills (3-1) 
Sunday night was bad – there’s no way around it. Baltimore was a horrible matchup for them, because of the way they like to get into heavy personnel and pound Buffalo on the ground, where they had been bottom-three in yards before contact coming in already, and now you had freaking Derrick Henry with a full head of steam on those carries. The offense looking as disarmed as it did was a lot more disappointing, but this was also a defense that you can’t typically punish by spamming the same buttons over and over again. Nonetheless, I’m going to mark that down as a day where they faced an opponent that was uniquely built to expose their weaknesses, even if their beatdown of the Jags the week prior isn’t fully indicative how good they are either. Josh Allen has been playing as well as any quarterback in the game through a month, even in defeat, making some incredible throws as he’s sprinting away from pressure. It may lack superstars, but they’ve assembled a receiving corp with all different, but defined strengths individually. And they had been one of the most efficient rushing teams in the league, allowing them to be second currently in EPA per play (0.172). Some of the same things can be said about the defense, where you’ve got a back-seven where it feels like they’re these “minions” where you can plug guys in off the bench and the foundational IQ allows them to perform up to standard without real drop-off, while the front is built to get after quarterbacks and they’ve missed the fewest tackle league-wide (11). The one flaw may be that they’re just built to play with the lead overall.
5. Baltimore Ravens (2-2) 
This is one of those groups, where you simply can’t look at the bottom-line record and act like it’s indicative of the level of play that they’re capable of. It’s almost insurmountable to imagine how this Ravens team blew a ten-point lead in the fourth quarter to the Raiders, yet just this past Sunday night destroyed the Bills 35-10. If Isaiah Likely wears white cleats in week one at Kansas City and they convert the two-pointer, and either Rashod Bateman doesn’t basically hand a routine pass to a linebacker or the refs don’t bail out the Raiders with a pass interference call the following Sunday, this may be the number one team on the list. Derrick Henry has rushed for 350 yards over the past two weeks combined, Lamar Jackson has been a magic man when needed with the pocket crumbling and averaging 7.5 yards per carry as a more slimmed-down version of himself, and the defense just held what was the clear favorite for MVP in Josh Allen more than 27 points under their previous season-average. Now, they’re still figuring out how to best deploy their receiving options, and Zach Orr taking over the defense is finding the right balance between bringing extra pressure and not putting his guys in vulnerable positions – they’re already easily the most effective unit in defending the run, according to success rate (27.8%). Yet, they have all the makings of a team that can compete for the AFC and just made what arguably looked like its top contender feel toothless, as they’re only one spot away from ranking first in total team DVOA (38.3%) like last year.
6. Detroit Lions (3-1) 
These past two games, the Lions offense has looked like what I considered the optimal formula for them coming into the year – relying on their offensive line and running back duo setting the tempo of games, Jared Goff operating on time and delivering strikes over the middle off play-action once his back-foot hits and then a few big plays sprinkled in to Jameson Williams on a post or deep over route, rather than forcing him to more of a high-volume feature. Let’s just note here that Goff obviously won’t go a perfect 18-for-18 again versus a banged-up defense like Seattle, but they’re now number two overall in success rate (50.2%). Meanwhile, the defense will be vulnerable based on the nature of how much man-coverage they rely upon and they’re still desperate for a secondary pass-rusher to emerge next to Aidan Hutchinson as a Defensive Player of the Year front-runner – particularly now that Marcus Davenport has been ruled out for the rest of the season – but the only way you can attack this defense on ground is away from that stout interior D-line and you have to like the attitude that secondary is playing with. With all of that in mind, the Cardinals did get screwed on an operation-error against them on what would’ve been a game-changing pick-six, but the Lions did also double up the Bucs in yards and first downs in their only loss so far. That’s how they currently rank fifth in overall team DVOA (22.0%).
7. Seattle Seahawks (3-1) 
The Seahawks had as much to gain from this past Monday Night game at Detroit as almost any team in the league, outside of maybe Baltimore due to the nature of how dominant their win over the Bills was. If they had come up with the big road win, they would’ve had a legitimate claim to the number two spot, considering how they needed to grind out their wins and the injuries to their receiving corp. I still believe Geno Smith has played almost as well as any quarterback in the league, they have an elite WR trio and Kenneth Walker looked great in his return. The interior of their O-line is a concern and I was really disappointed in how their defense was gashed through the air and on the ground. Now, let’s acknowledge that they were basically without their starting front-four in nickel personnel and their best linebacker – so that clearly affected how the back-end looked like, typically working in concert with the front, especially for a scheme can leave themselves vulnerable with the way they change up the picture and rely on their rush to get home before the opposing quarterback is able to decipher what they’re doing – and they had done so previously. With the lesser competition they had previously faced, the truth should be somewhere in-between those, although even according to FTN’s schedule-adjusted DVOA (-30.1) only the Vikings had been better as a unit coming into Monday Night. A healthy Seattle team can probably still beat just about anybody on a given day, I’d think.
8. Green Bay Packers (2-2) 
If there’s one thing we’ve learned about the Packers this season, it’s how exceptional head coach Matt LaFleur is at designing and calling an offense. They currently rank third in both offensive DVOA (18.8%) and – even with a run play rate just above 50% – yards per play (6.3 YPP), despite only having starting quarterback Jordan Love for two of their four games – which they both lost. That’s an indication that we shouldn’t be giving up on young, talented players as quickly, especially when we label them as projects just like Malik Willis, but it’s also another feather in the cap of LaFleur with the way he draws up run plays in particular that play with the rules of defenses. And while game-script against the Vikings this past Sunday dictated, we saw Love and company nearly come down from a 28-0 deficit because of how explosive they can also be through the air. Green Bay’s defense unfortunately hasn’t lived up to the hype I was ready to put on them, based on the amount of high draft picks they had assembled and now a defensive coordinator in Jeff Hafley coming over from Boston College, implementing a system that would allow their guys up front and in coverage to be more aggressive. Once again playing with a backup at the CB2 spot that now gets isolated more regularly has definitely hurt and they’re for the eighth-most missed tackles (26), but there is reason for optimism as some of their young pieces are being brought along in this new scheme.
9. San Francisco 49ers (2-2) 
These sound more like first-world problems, but the Niners are now down to sixth in EPA per play (0.095) and seventh in DVOA offensively (15.1%) from being the class of the league in that category. Yet, they’re once again at the top in terms of net yards per pass attempt despite missed times by multiple contributors on the back-end of those passes (8.2 YPA). They’ve also been pretty efficient running the ball with Jordan Mason, but what they’ve been missing are the explosives Christian McCaffrey typically provides, which lead to them not actually getting to third downs a lot of times. To me, Purdy has actually raised his performance level, especially in terms of extending plays and creating out of structure, and the advanced numbers back that up, as he currently ranks behind only Jayden Daniels and Josh Allen in EPA per play (0.221). I was very surprised to find out that San Francisco ranks fourth in schedule-adjusted DVOA on defense (-14.1%). Fred Warner has obviously been a DPOY front-runner with some insane plays made in coverage especially, but they’ve missed the injured Dre Greenlaw next to him as someone who typically provided splash plays for them and they’re just average in terms of creating pressure, now with Javon Hargrave out for the rest of the year. They’re now down all the way to the bottom of the league in special teams DVOA (-9.8%) however, further slimming their otherwise substantial margin for error, as they’re navigating all of these injuries.
10. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-1) 
I’d say through two games both the Bucs and Saints at 2-0 each were the biggest surprise teams of the early season. Tampa Bay absolutely laid an absolute at home against the Broncos the following week (26-7), but unlike their NFC South foes, they not only managed to get back on the right track, but were in a control throughout a statement 33-16 win against the Eagles, who New Orleans couldn’t sneak past previously. So now here they are, currently secured as the number two seed in the conference, with head-to-head wins over the fellow 3-1 Lions and Commanders already, while the Seahawks at least have an in-conference loss already. Deciding to bring the band back together, with Baker Mayfield finally settling into a place and Mike Evans continuing his excellence, has paid off in a major way. Liam Coen has added a couple of new layers to the run game and fully unlocked Chris Godwin as the power slot he was always intended to be, which is how they now sit at seventh in offensive success rate (48.1%). Flipping over to the opposite side of the ball, those young defensive linemen have really stepped and the presence of someone like Joe Tryon-Shoyinka has made their (fire-)zone blitzes a lot more effective, because they can bring extra bodies from the second level without making themselves too vulnerable, because that guy can take on assignments beyond just dropping to a spot. That’s how they currently rank eighth in total pressures rate (25.1%) and quarterbacks who struggle to find solutions against the blitz – such as Jalen Hurts this past weekend – see that lever pulled all the way on them.
11. Pittsburgh Steelers (3-1) 
You knew that the formula we had seen from the Steelers would leave them with limited margin for error and that they’d find themselves playing from behind eventually, just like on Sunday against the Colts. Having said that, battling back and getting a chance to drive for a game-tying field goal with just under three minutes left, did show me a lot about the character they’ve continued to show under the leadership of Mike Tomlin. The defense of course has been great and following a couple of big plays from Anthony Richardson, Joe Flacco was forced to attempt tight-window throw throughout the day. Even with the veteran fitting several of those in, Pittsburgh remains in the top eight for defensive DVOA, EPA per play and success rate. And they’re at least an average offense, with a young quarterback still, who finally seems to be an environment that encourages growth, as he just had one of the best performances of his career this past Sunday against the Colts, even if it came in their first loss of the year. I hope Jaylen Warren can be healthy from this point going forward, in order to maximize some of the rushing lanes they create, since that’s where their strength lies, compared to protecting the passer with those injuries up front. They’re typically going to win the turnover battle, there are a couple of deep bombs to George Pickens primarily sprinkled in and then they have one of the elite closers defensively in T.J. Watt. They just need a certain gamescript to beat the better teams.
12. Atlanta Falcons (2-2) 
I feel a lot better about these Falcons now than I did after their season-opener against the previously mentioned Steelers, when Kirk Cousins looked like a true statue who was worried about his shaky foundation, coming off that torn Achilles. There are still some limitations in that regard maybe, but the connection with Drake London and Darnell Mooney has been excellent and offensive coordinator Zac Robinson has been able to marginalize some injuries up front. I may want to press pause on this defense based on some of the underlying numbers, but they’ve created key takeaways for their team to mask deficiencies in certain areas. And Younghoe Koo of course is a weapon, as one of only five kickers to have yet to miss a field goal or extra point, including three kicks of 50+ yards, like the 58-yard game-winner this past Sunday against their hated rivals in the Saints. There are three things that still bother me about this group – they haven’t cashed in on red-zone trips regularly enough, as they’ve only turned 40% of those into touchdowns (fourth-lowest in the NFL), their defense now has the worst success rate against the run defensively (49.2%) despite running cover-three on about half their snaps, and on average they are starting drives 8.7 yards behind where they set up their opponents, which is tied for dead-worst in something I labelled the HRF stat years ago. I will note that they got royally screwed on Sunday night week three against the Chiefs, where a blatant P.I. call wasn’t made, which should’ve given them four tries from the opposing one-yard line to punch it in to take the lead, with under four minutes left.
13. Washington Commanders (3-1) 
This brings us to the final 3-1 team and I realize that I’ll be called a hater for having Washington down here, below multiple 2-2 squads. And you can make a very strong argument for them being worthy of the top ten so far, with what rookie Jayden Daniels and company are doing. They easily clear the rest of the league with an offensive EPA per play of 0.317 – the Bills are next-closest at 0.172. They remain the only offense without multiple giveaways and over the past three weeks, they’ve also only punted once. In fact, Jayden has led the Commanders to more scoring drives (23) than he has incompletions. A large part of that has been the fact that they’ve converted an NFL-high 53.5% of his third down attempts and all six(!) of their fourth downs. At this point, I will throw in some caution here – all four defenses they’ve faced so far rank 20th or lower in EPA per play, while the Bengals and Cardinals are very much in the conversation for worst unit in the league. And of course, the other side here is that Washington’s own defense is in the running for that title as well, going by what they had shown leading up to their best showing this past Sunday against the Cardinals. Right now, they are actually dead-last in that defensive EPA (0.203) and based on personnel, there’s little reason to believe they’re on their way up. Dan Quinn is putting those corners on islands regularly – which was already a bad idea on paper and now you’re asking 5’9” Mike Sainristil to play outside, when he’s best at wreaking havoc as an involved nickel.
14. Los Angeles Chargers (2-2) 
We were wondering how big the imprint of Jim Harbaugh and his hand-picked coaching staff would be on this franchise coming into the year and it’s been undeniable. They’ve called runs on 53% of offensive plays and outside of two giveaways in an easy win over the Panthers in week two (26-3), they haven’t turned the ball over in any of their three other contests. Now, they will have to open up things a little more eventually and get the Ferrari out there, since we’ve already seen Justin Herbert hit a couple of shot plays to Quentin Johnston of all people, but I think the fact that they’ve gained less first downs than any other team in the league (54) is heavily based on facing the Steelers and Chiefs in losses these last two weeks, when they’ve been without their two starting tackles and Herbert has been banged up. So with J.K. Dobbins getting rolling downhill again and them calibrating things in a way that leads to a few more explosives through the air, this is a formula you can clearly win with. Especially considering how much this Bolts D has exceeded expectations. They’re actually just slightly behind the Vikings for the top spot defensive EPA per play (-0.185) and also second in success rate (37.8%). Most importantly, that toughness and physicality up front has spilled over to that side of the ball as well, as only Jim’s brother John with the Ravens has a defense that has posted a higher success rate vs. the run (33.3%). The gamble on Kristian Fulton at corner has worked out great so far and their veterans look rejuvenated in a scheme under DC Jesse Minter that regularly clouds the picture in order for the rush to get there.
15. New Orleans Saints (2-2) 
When I initially put this list together, I had the Saints a couple of spots lower, considering they did just lose back-to-back games and it feels like their offense has come crashing back down to earth. However, when I dove into the numbers and really thought things through, my hopes for them went back up. I mean, they lost to the Eagles and Falcons by a combined five points, with the latter coming at the hands of a 58-yard walk-off field goal. Offensively, they rank second in net yards per pass attempt (7.7 YPA), third-down conversion rate (53.2%) and red-zone TD percentage (75.0%) – so the three most meaningful categories you might argue, considering their overall yards-per-play mark only isn’t quite up there because they’ve run the ball at a higher rate and gained more first downs than any other team in the league, with those two blowout wins to start the year. Meanwhile, their defense ranks fourth in DVOA (-0.160), behind one of the feistiest, most physical trio of corners, outstanding tackling (16 misses – tied for third-fewest) and – I’m sure to the surprise of many – one of the most productive edge-rushing duos in the league between Carl Granderson and Chase Young, with their 40 combined QB pressures being only topped by Detroit’s tandem of Aidan Hutchinson and whoever you want on Detroit, since that’s equal to his individual tally. New Orleans is still the number three team in the league (37.4%) and they’re number one in what I labelled the HRF stat several years ago, as they on average are starting drives 11.6 yards further ahead than their opponents.
16. Philadelphia Eagles (2-2) 
I was really excited about this new version of the Eagles early on, as we saw motion at the snap with actual purpose and more variety in the run game, getting Saquon Barkley going vertically and allowing his talents to shine by getting him to the second level. It is necessary to note that A.J. Brown hasn’t been available since going off for 119 yards and a touchdown in their opener in Brazil and that DeVonta Smith was knocked out at the start of the fourth quarter in week three. So defenses have been able to load the box on early downs, while not being concerned about those two studs on the outside running by their guys as an answer to getting heated up. However, only the Titans have turned the ball over once more than Philly (eight) and Jalen Hurts’ 11 turnover-worthy plays are four more than any other quarterback in the league. Kellen Moore has to give him some more answers vs. the blitz in order for the worst parts of his game to be enhanced. And then they need Vic Fangio to embrace change in the way he calls his defense. We did see him give the Saints trouble in week three with those 6-1 fronts, to make them a dropback team, which yielded great results (12 points being half of any other showing they’ve had). However, they are just way too many soft zone shells opposing quarterbacks can pick away at – easily leading the league with an 88% rate of snaps without any defenders in press-alignment – and then becoming predictable when they do go cover-zero, that they can take shots against. They’re too talented to rank 21st in total team DVOA (-9.5%).
17. New York Jets (2-2) 
This was one of the few teams, where I kind of struggle to just sit down and formulate my thoughts on. I took a page out of Aaron Rodgers’ book telling people to “R-E-L-A-X” after getting boat-raced in the Monday Night opener by the 49ers, as they got a much-needed win at Tennessee the following week and then looked outstanding all-around on Thursday Night against the Patriots. Yet, then they come back and lose a game in which the opposing quarterback throws for 60 yards on 25 attempts and a still hobbled Rodgers is responsible for 40% of your own rushing total at 64 yards? I thought Denver may be a tough matchup, because they could stick Patrick Surtain on Garrett Wilson and force those other pass-catchers to win, along with being one of the better pressure teams in the league, but what OC Nathaniel Hackett is doing from a schematic standpoint is very uninspiring and Aaron resigned to this game-manager mode, where he gets ultra-conservative in these type of low-scoring matchups, but doesn’t realize that a couple of big plays would also force their opponents to put the ball at risk – which he’s much more qualified to do, especially with how he’s shredded the blitz in the past. One area this offense has excelled at is on third downs, converting 46.3% of those attempts, and as long as they can clear that exaggerated dispute, the veteran QB’s pre-snap IQ and usage of cadence can be weapons. Where I’ve been more disappointed is their defense, because despite coming off a game in which the opposing rookie passer could barely get the ball to his targets due to the weather conditions, they’re dead-average against on the ground and through the air. That limited depth up front and not having Bryce Huff or Haason Reddick has shown.
18. Indianapolis Colts (2-2) 
I understand that it has looked quite different, but would you be shocked to find out that the Colts are tied with the Commanders for fifth in yards per play offensively (6.1 YPP)? The nature of this group isn’t to be hyper-efficient, but rather they have that explosive ability on the ground with Jonathan Taylor and Anthony Richardson himself, whose accuracy seems to increase the deeper down the field he’s allowed to attack. Seeing him get banged up after that hot start against the Steelers was highly frustrating, especially because now the conversation will shift towards “Does Joe Flacco make this a better offense again?”, but the numbers are starting to add up for this unit, as they’re just one spot outside the top-ten in offensive DVOA (6.5%). The other major development for Indy in these early stages of the season is that their run defense has recovered massively after looking like swiss cheese over the first two weeks – even if facing the Raiders and the Steelers in negative gamescript certainly helps. Nevertheless, because of how predictable they remain under defensive coordinator Gus Bradley in terms of coverages, they’re allowing nearly half of third downs against them to be converted (49.2%). So while their best element is their own run game, they’re not built to win low-scoring affairs, but rather to hit a few big plays early to take the lead and allow their D-line to pin their eyes back rushing the passer.
19. Dallas Cowboys (2-2) 
America’s Team finds itself on the lower end of the 2-2 spectrum for me and while they’re more proven as a perennial winner in the regular season, there’s not a whole lot to cling to, as to why they’re headed in the right direction. Dak Prescott is one of the most cerebral quarterbacks in the game, capable of processing extensive information post-snap, although the solution has to be going to Ceedee Lamb routinely, because of a lack of trust in their ancillary pass-catchers. Meanwhile, they’re tied for the second-lowest yards-per-carry mark (3.5 YPC), which simply isn’t sustainable with how opponents are able to control the clock. After ranking first in the league in EPA per play as a defense over the three previous years combined, they currently sit at number 24 in that metric (0.062). That’s in part due to their not being able to keep opponents out of the paint, as they’ve allowed a 75% TD rate on red-zone trips, but most glaringly, it’s been how they defend the run. The Ravens ran wild on them two weeks ago for 274 yards and while the Saints were “held” just under 200, the way Dallas compromises themselves with run fits that force DBs to fill against fullbacks, it opens up big-time opportunities to attack isolated matchups off play-action. Mike Zimmer will have to trust an unproven linebacker level and take the pen back in his hands by how he forces the issue when he does create defined dropback settings – although he’ll have to do so without his top two pass-rushers for the next couple of weeks, it sounds looks like. A big reason they’re at least even on the win-loss record is how fantastic they’ve been on special teams, easily outranking the competition in DVOA (13.1%).
20. Chicago Bears (2-2) 
The sentiment around this being one of the best situations for any rookie quarterback to be dropped into hasn’t rung true so far at all with Caleb Williams. The two reasons for that – the lack of a consistent run game to rely upon, yet still treating it as such, and issues in pass-protection, especially when it comes to the interior O-line. Even with the “explosion” we saw from that unit this past Sunday against the Rams, Chicago’s offense ranks 31st in rushing success (33.0%), they’re tied with Cleveland for a league-low 3.9 yards per play and only those Browns and the Tua-less Dolphins have posted a lower offensive DVOA overall (-27.5%). Nonetheless, I thought there were several positive signs for Caleb starting to feel comfortable as they’re opening things up a little bit more through the air and him calibrating what he can get away with at this level. The piece of this that he can rely upon already is a defense, that’ll provide him chances to win game. We already saw the Bears D go through a drastic turnaround over the second half of last season, once they had brought in Montez Sweat as their ace pass-rusher and head coach Matt Eberflus took back over play-calling duties – and they rank exactly fifth in defensive EPA per play yet again (-0.148). The physicality of this secondary to come up and tackle along with how sound they are with their rules for a team that heavily relies on cover-three and -four makes this unit stand out. So while you can argue that they should’ve lost week one at Tennessee, they did find ways to hang out in their two losses despite significant offensive issues.
21. Denver Broncos (2-2) 
It’s certainly a tale of two sides for the Broncos currently. They sit at 30th in offensive success rate (37.9%) and Bo Nix ranks 31st among quarterbacks with 50+ dropbacks in EPA per play (-0.158). I’ve been a pretty big defender of Bo, and some of this insanely low average depth of target for example can be explained by the nature of this offense, but what he’s done so far simply isn’t sustainable NFL quarterback play. The one area he’s actually excelled at – and it’s something I applauded him for coming out of Oregon – is sack avoidance, as only Jordan Love has posted a lower pressure-to-sack conversion rate (7.4%). In defined dropback situations unfortunately, the conservativeness has led to them not being able to sustain drives or cash in when in the red-zone (league-low 33.3% TD rate). However, they rank top-four in both EPA per play (-0.174) and success rate (38.1%) defensively. And a big reason for that I believe is what Riley Moss has unlocked as the field-side corner across from Pat Surtain, after opponents were able to attack that spot routinely just a year ago. You pair that ability to plaster receivers with the highest blitz rate in the league (44.1%) and with guys just not getting open before the pressure can get home, Denver is just one off the top mark in sacks (16). What I love is that they don’t wait for defined passing situations to send heat. They just got a sack on a six-man rush the first play of the Jets game and they’re also only one off the top mark in TFLs (26) for the year. And I’ll give them bonus points for being second to only the Saints in the HRF stat, with +8.4 yards of average starting field position compared to their opponents.
22. Cincinnati Bengals (1-3) 
Considering they have only won one game over the first month and had one of the biggest blunders of the early season, when they scored just 10 points in their opener at home against the Patriots, you may be surprised that I actually think they’ve been fine offensively. Joe Burrow needed to shake off the rest in that week one contest, but their aerial attack has been one of the most dangerous since all their receivers worked their way back in, and Chase Brown has added a dynamism out of the backfield they’ve really needed to complement to steady Zack Moss. And while it’s obviously a net negative to lose a starting-level tackle, rookie Amarius Mims looks like he may be an upgrade over the injured Trent Brown. They’re now up to fourth in offensive DVOA (19.0%). They big issue for this team has been the defense – when it comes to construction and individual quality of play. Before we entered the season, I was wondering why they didn’t have any traditional (shade) nose-tackle on the roster, now they go to a lot more five-man surfaces on early downs, which makes them vulnerable to explosive passes off play-action. They’re just 0.1% off the worst mark in success rate against the run (49.1%) and they’ve logged five fewer TFLs than any other team (eight), but then when they do get to obvious passing situation, nobody other than Trey Hendrickson can get home on the rush, with the second-lowest pressure rate in the NFL (12.8%).
23. Los Angeles Rams (1-3) 
Let me just say here – if the Rams find a way to somehow sneak into the playoffs, Matthew Stafford and Sean McVay have to be right up there in the voting for MVP and Coach of the Year respectively. Considering they’ve had their top two wide receivers – who they funnel about two thirds of their passing offense through – for a combined one-and-a-half games and already had ten different offensive linemen log more than 25 snaps through one month, the fact that they’ve still been viable BECAUSE of that unit is remarkable. They’re currently tied for eighth in offensive success rate (48.0%), which jumps to nearly 50% on the ground, in part because Stafford gets them into such advantageous looks and is able to keep drives going with big-boy throws on key downs. If you look at the other side of the coin, you understand why they’ve needed to perform above expectations so badly in order to stay in games. Only the Jaguars have been worse defensively according to DVOA (23.8%), allowing at least 24 points in each of their four games. Opponents have been able to nearly reach that 50% rushing success rate against them, which makes them vulnerable in terms of when you can isolate the individual coverage pieces, and then they’ve missed five more tackles (44) than any other team in the league. Having said that, I believe their linebackers have played better and more fundamentally sound than what we perceived them to be following the shocking trade of Ernest Jones to Tennessee, and their young D-line has helped them reach the sixth-highest pressure rate in the league (26.4%). So there is hope for when they get Cooper Kupp and hopefully also Puka Nacua back.
24. Las Vegas Raiders (2-2) 
To be honest, I have no idea how this team sits at an even win-loss tally right now. I mean, I’ve watched the games to see what happened, but it just makes no sense with how they’re currently constructed. Even with their 152 yards on the ground they put this past Sunday against the Browns being just one less than in their first three weeks combined, Las Vegas ranks dead-last in rushing success rate offensively (25.6%) and they’ve gained six fewer first downs through that avenue than any other team in the league (13). Meanwhile, his head coach openly discussed the possibility of benching Gardner Minshew, who ranks 28th among quarterbacks in average intended air yards (6.4), yet has also thrown a pick in three straight weeks. Meanwhile, their defense has been pretty solid situationally, holding opponents to just a 31.3% conversion rate on third downs (eighth-lowest in the league), but the were just playing second-/third-stringers on the edges and only got away with it because the Broncos were also missing their starting tackle duo. The previously mentioned Rams have masked that to some degree by how poorly they’ve tackled, but if you take them out, the Raiders have missed nine more attempts than any other NFL team (39). I will give them credit here for being tough and resilient two pull off the comeback win over Baltimore and then fending off Cleveland most recently, but I’m also aware that they got bailed out by some ticky-tack calls at best in in each fourth quarter, with a pass interference call in the end-zone where the defender had equal rights to the ball, and then an 82-yard touchdown that would’ve put the Browns up by three with about ten minutes left being wiped off by a phantom holding call. And now, Davante Adams wants to get out.
25. Tennessee Titans (1-3) 
A lot of this young Titans season has been the defined by the Jekyll and Hyde-nature of their QB Will Levis. No team has handed the ball to their opponents more regularly than Tennessee, doing so at an insane 22.9%(!) of their drives, and they rank dead-last in dropback EPA on offense (-0.270) thanks to all those drive-killing turnovers. Having said that, Bill Callahan has quickly turned around this offense line, I’ve liked the design of their run game and Levis does have some big-time throws on tape. Now he just needs to say “no” to his inner demons in those moments where he refuses to have win a negative or zero-sum play. Meanwhile, while I thought they were performing well above expectations, I was kind of shocked to see them be number one in defensive success rate currently (35.9%). That’s surprisingly actually carried by what they’re doing against the pass however, considering you’d think with the duo of Jeffery Simmons and the massive rookie T’Vondre Sweat, they’d be elite at stopping the run. And they are able to re-set the line of scrimmage regularly – leading the league with 27 tackles for loss – but it’s the way new DC Dennard Wilson has chosen to challenge receivers with man-/match-coverage and some of the change-ups he’s thrown out there that’s made so tough to throw the ball on, despite not having any interceptions yet and the third-lowest overall pressure rate (14.5%). Not allowing their opponents to block punts each of their first two weeks has certainly helped. So I really like the make-up here, considering they could easily be 3-1 right now if not for blunders by their special teams and/or quarterback.
26. Arizona Cardinals (1-3) 
I believe the temperature on this Cardinals for betting markets and me especially changed quite drastically after their disappointing 42-14 home defeat at the hands of the Commanders, who they were favored over by 3.5 points. Looking at the metrics, this was supposed to be a shootout on paper, where their defense would struggle to create stops, but I also thought we’d see Arizona contribute to the scoring on their end. Kyler Murray is a top-ten quarterback based on EPA per play (0.174) and what my eyes tell me watching the film, they’ve been fairly effective on the ground and they’re converting red-zone trips into touchdowns at the fourth-highest rate in the league (72.7%). The issue is that they’ve only made inside the opposing 20-yard line seven times since the season-opener at Buffalo. Arizona’s 4.3 yards after the catch on average ranks 27th league-wide and especially without Trey McBride last week, it becomes apparent that they can’t attack outside the numbers to anyone but rookie Marvin Harrison Jr. – who they should feature even more extensively. Also their opening script splits compared to the rest of games offensively are astounding. Those issues become all the more meaningful when you see that their defense can’t stop a damn nosebleed. Right now, they’re responsible for the highest defensive success rate in the league (54.4%), which goes up to over 60(!)% on dropbacks. That’s because offense facing them can consistently stay ahead of the sticks with early down runs or then even when they do get to obvious passing downs, Dennis Gardeck is their most effective pass-rusher, when he should really be more of a rotational piece, as the only guy with more than five pressure (and he only has six himself).
27. New York Giants (1-3) 
Before we talk about anything else – rookie Malik Nabers is already a true superstar, which I called for as the only glimmer of hope following a pitiful week one showing against the Vikings – which doesn’t nearly look as bad now that they are the number one team on the list. The suddenness as a route-runner, the insane ball-skills and what he can do after the catch are so damn good, that he might ultimately hurt the Giants (short-term) because he saves Daniel Jones’ job. Danny Dimes hasn’t been awful per se, posting the second-highest on-target rate of throws so far (83.3%), but he can’t push the ball deep right now it seems like, with less than 100 yards across 11 pass attempts of 20+ yards – and a couple of those catches were on Nabers mossing dudes. You combine that with no team having averaged less than New York’s 3.4 yards per rush, even if the O-line play has been slightly better, and you get a very limited offense. As we flip over to their defense, there have been a lot more positive signs recently. They were able to take advantage of a banged-up Browns O-line and then actually just out-gained the Cowboys at home last Thursday, totaling just 14 first downs on the night. While I’m still pretty considered about the individual pieces on the back-end, DC Shane Bowen has done enough in terms of disguising coverage to limit to opponents on third downs and in the red-zone (their 40% TD rate allowed being the sixth-lowest league-wide). We’ve seen a couple of good offenses neutralize their front to large extent, but they can feast on lesser units and currently are third in sacks (15).
28. Cleveland Browns (1-3) 
It’s been really hard trying to watch this Browns offense. They currently rank dead-last in success rate (33.8%) and among quarterbacks with 50+ dropbacks, only Bryce Young – who got benched two games into his second season as the previous first overall pick – and Will Levis – who literally has a weekly meme collection of mind-boggling turnovers – has posted a worse mark in EPA per play than Deshaun Watson (-0.262). Part of that is the continued lack of high-end accuracy, but also the bad pocket presence compounding the issues that come along with being without their top four tackles for large stretches, resulting in an NFL-high 19 sacks taken. You see Amari Cooper rolling his eyes when he’s hearing play-calls in the huddle, but then also uncommonly let passes go off his chest and result in interceptions. What’s actually disappointing here though is the negative regression of what was a top-two defense across basically metric you want to look in 2023. Having re-watched the broadcast of their past week’s loss to a Raiders team without their top player on offense and defense each for that matter, Ross Tucker in the broadcast booth literally said “he doesn’t understand […], they’ve got really good players” but constantly being back on the field and Jim Schwartz not being willing to adjust his system to be less predictable. Overall, the Browns are dead-last in total team DVOA (-39.6%) and even though the numbers actually looked worse than his performance this Sunday, I’m running out of reasons for why they shouldn’t just sit down Watson. You “can’t” due to the guaranteed money you still owe him in future years, but at this point you’re not salvaging the situation anymore and might as well put a guy under center who the rest of the troops seemingly want to go to battle for – you’re paying either way.
29. Jacksonville Jaguars (0-4) 
I realize that I have the win-less Jags ahead of three teams who have all at least left the victorious once this season. However, the beatdown they suffered in the first half of the week three Monday double-header at the hands of the Bills does cloud the perception of a lot of people. All three of their other losses have come by five points or loss and they should’ve really won two of those – they fumbled at the one-yard line in the opener at Miami when they were about to go up 24-7 at the end of the third quarter, and then with a 20-17 lead at Houston, they couldn’t convert goal-to-go from inside the opposing five in four tries. Having said that, the fact that they’ve been this close makes it all the more frustrating that they haven’t been able top finish the job. And if Doug Pederson is unwilling to acknowledge obvious deficiencies in terms of how their offense is designed and makes further comments that’ll drive a rift between his players and coaches, things may spiral out of control. The difference between them and those other squads below is that they’re not dealing with any major injuries and no matter what your opinion on Trevor Lawrence may be, at least have an established starter at the most important position. Although seeing the Jags dead-last in defensive DVOA (25.8%) with the pieces they have and the addition of coordinator Ryan Nielsen is very disappointing.
30. Carolina Panthers (1-3) 
You could make a case for swapping numbers 30 and 31, considering the Panthers are only two points away from the league’s worst point differential (-56), but I am trying to judge teams on what/where they are right now. Since their two embarrassing losses to open the season, they’ve won at Las Vegas by 14 and then just lost by ten at home to the Bengals – when they had a chance to put together a game-tying drive with under five minutes left. Bryce Young unfortunately looked like a broken quarterback in desperate need of a scene change, while Andy Dalton has been more than serviceable. Since his insertion, their offense ranks eighth in EPA per play (0.119) and fifth in success rate (49.6%). Chuba Hubbard has rushed for over 100 yards in each of those last two games, Diontae Johnson has been one of the most productive receivers in the league with legit alpha usage and Dalton has only been sacked twice across 82 dropbacks behind this O-line that they invested major resources into. On the not-so-bright side, their defense has been largely falling apart, with injuries to what I’d consider their top two players in nose-tackle Derrick Brown and linebacker Shaq Thompson. So they’ll be a lot more fun to watch, but if they do want to a chance to win, it’ll have to be in a shootout – and even then, they’re the only team with a pressure rate defensively below 10%.
31. New England Patriots (1-3) 
We may be one spot away from the end of this list, but to provide a silver lining right away – at least the Patriots haven’t appeared like a dysfunctional organization and the fact that they haven’t really been competitive these last two weeks I believe is more so an illustration of their lack of talent in comparison to the 49ers and Jets. And being second league-wide in special teams DVOA (8.2%) speaks to that buttoned-up way of operating. Week one is always a little fluky, but they did shock everybody with a disciplined win over the Bengals then and followed it up by going to overtime against a Seahawks team that only just suffered their first loss of the season this past Monday night. Now, we already understand the deficiencies that exist on this offense in terms of receiving options and the offensive line especially. When Vederian Low has definitely been your best option at left tackle and you already nine linemen log more than 50 snaps, while you still don’t have a wide receiver reach 100 yards through the air a month in, you know things are bad. The defense has a couple of second-year breakout stars in shutdown corner Christian Gonzalez and the super versatile D-lineman Keion White, but what’s really hurting New England currently is that they have to be worried about getting third overall pick Drake Maye out there because of the scar tissue he may develop in these circumstances.
32. Miami Dolphins (1-3) 
I understand why hopes were high for this Miami squad coming into the season, considering the offensive ingenuity Mike McDaniel had continued to showcase and what a systematic shift defensively would promise, as they imported what is becoming the new meta around the league with Anthony Weaver coming over from Baltimore. At the same time, I had questions about some of the missing pieces on defense due to injury – even though Jaelan Phillips surprisingly was a fixture in the lineup week one already – the vulnerability of this offensive line in situations where those can’t be masked by play-design, and ultimately what might happen later in the year again, when opponents figure out how to put that offense in a box, forcing the quarterback to elevate what he does beyond the system, and games are more concentrated on what happens in the trenches. Well, we didn’t even get to that point unfortunately. They started off with a wild comeback over a Jacksonville team that has a PhD in blowing leads by now, lost quarterback Tua Tagovailoa to injured reserve on yet any scary concussion the following Thursday Night and this past Monday Night loss by 19 points at home to the Titans was actually the closest they’d had since. Now they rank in the bottom-four in both offensive and defensive DVOA. We may have underestimated the importance of the “system QB” here, but completely falling apart like this as a result of his absence is indefensible.
Halil's Real Footballtalk 