Week one of the 2024 NFL season is in the books and before we even kicked off on Sunday, there was a lot going on, with last-minute contracts being finalized, star players getting handcuffed and more. For now, we‘ll focus on what we saw across the actual matchups however.

You‘re going to hear a bunch of overreactions based on what we saw in these opening games and especially with so many star players not taking part in preseason at all, there‘s a good chance many of them look very different the next time they step on the field. Nevertheless, there‘s a lot to take away for now, as we get our first look at new schemes, rookies, regrouped units, etc.

I‘m going to outline three takeaways for all 16 games based on watching the broadcasts and/or tape afterwards. So obviously these are rather subjective in terms of on what stood out to me, but I’ll try to encapsulate what matters most for individual players and teams here.

Let’s dive in:

 

  Baltimore Ravens @ Kansas City Chiefs 

 

Final score – 20:27

 

1. There are so many more layers to this Chiefs offense

From the jump, it felt like Kansas City had new answers to problems Baltimore was throwing them defensively, but even more than that, the way they challenge those guys was so much more multi-faceted. The speed they brought in to pull the defense deep allowed them to attack horizontally, with Rashee Rice catching a bunch of crossers and turning them into chunks. Instead of Kadarius Toney, now you have first-round pick Xavier Worthy as the guy handling designed touches, like that touchdown on the end-around, where they motion the tight-end one way and then wind him back across. And of course, Andy Reid having extra time to prepare, you saw his understanding of where the eyes of these Ravens defenders would be based on the looks they presented to them, along with how to take advantage of that. The magic dust Patrick Mahomes can sprinkle on top of all this makes them borderline indefensible on days where things are clicking for them, but in terms of how the stress opponents, they don’t just create but actually take space, it feels like. And this was without even having Hollywood Brown in the lineup.

 

2. On the other side, Baltimore’s offense felt discombobulated

Thinking back to the 2023 Ravens, Todd Monken didn’t necessarily deploy many additional route-combinations or specialty plays, but the spacing and timing of how they were called, took Lamar Jackson and this passing attack to the next level. It didn’t seem like they took another step coming into this season. Of course, there were major issues for this offensive line not being able to protect the reigning MVP, along with somehow getting Justice Hill matched up with Chris Jones on full-slide protections. In terms of the run game, we never saw the cool element that this pairing of Lamar and Derrick Henry promised to us, where the running back can hit the line of scrimmage as the hammer and you have the slashing style of the quarterback potentially pulling the ball. Instead, Lamar turned his back handing off to Henry with the fullback in front of him or a guard pulling in order to lead the way, leading to very limited success. Nearly 40% of their offensive yardage came on Lamar scrambles, checkdowns to Justice Hill and that one long touchdown by Isaiah Likely off the scramble drill. Nothing encapsulated this more than the failed fourth-and-three, where they tried to sort of hide Zay Flowers behind the tight-end and Nelson Agholor just completely misses the assignment of picking the defender in the flats, where they flip it to Zay and he gets wrapped up immediately.

 

3. Kansas City’s defense was the one to dictate terms

Clearly, the two true stars for the Chiefs defensively showed up. Trent McDuffie came up with that huge tackle I just mentioned against Flowers on the “trick play”, but Pro Football Focus only charged him with 22 yards in coverage on the day and 19 of those came playing off against a crossing route and probably expecting a little for help inside on cover-one robber. And obviously Chris Jones was doing his thing, where he’s picking his matchup and moving along the front. It was baptism by fire for first-time starters Andrew Vorhees and Daniel Faalele facing the league’s premiere interior rusher Chris Jones, and even rookie Roger Rosengarten jumping in at right tackle and allowing a sack and QB hurry each on just 13 pass-blocking snaps. But beyond that, some of the simulated pressure Chiefs DC Steve Spagnuolo was throwing out there, at some point getting to an inverted version of cover-two, where he’s got a linebacker bailing out into the deep half – they were forcing Lamar to figure things out on the fly. Meanwhile, Baltimore only blitzed Mahomes four times on the day, you saw a lot more straight-forward coverage shells and of course they had that bust on the long Worthy receiving TD. Not giving Malik Harrison snaps so he can get absolutely roasted would help, as Zach Orr is trying to find his footing as a play-caller.

 

 

  Green Bay Packers @ Philadelphia Eagles (Brazil) 

 

Final score – 29:34

 

1. Kellen Moore is making this offense feel much less static already

When I was going through some burning questions for each NFC team in the middle of June, I discussed what this marriage between new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore and veteran O-line coach Jeff Stoutland might look like, since he’s also primarily in charge of designing the run game. So far so good, I’d say, since following turnovers on their two initial third downs of the day, they scored 24 combined points across their ensuing four possessions, their outstanding WR duo of A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith combined for over 200 yards through the air and newly inserted running back Saquon Barkley combined for 132 yards and three touchdowns (on 26 opportunities). More important than the actual results long-term for me however was how different this attack looked like. We saw Jalen Hurts under center or into pistol at a much higher rate than when they were in the shotgun on over 90% of snaps last season, they ran the ball out of 12 personnel sets, using those tight-ends as lead-blockers at times along with a lot more duo, after they were top-10 in three-WR sets and nearly half of their concepts were inside zone previously, and most notably, they deployed motion at the snap with actual purpose, while Jalen Hurts had in-built answers when blitzed, which he was at the highest rate in the league for 2023 (40.5%).

 

2. Philadelphia’s linebackers could be the difference in turning this unit around

When the Eagles lost then defensive-coordinator Jonathan Gannon to the Cardinals as their new head coach last offseason, I also pointed out how they’d miss their unsung linebacker duo of Kyzir White and T.J. Edwards. We saw that unit fall off dramatically due to really their entire back-seven, especially over the latter half of 2023, but despite allowing nearly 30 points last Friday night, there were some positive signs. In particular, two of my former draft gems in the middle were able to shine. Nakobe Dean’s high football IQ and identification skills led him to blowing up screen passes and creating run stuffs where he’s back-dooring against double-teams, while Zack Baun had a couple of nice plays contesting throws to the backs and tight-ends, along with collecting a couple of sacks as an add-on rusher. There were still some issues in the secondary, where the pattern-recognition and how they were squeezing stuff in zone-coverage wasn’t where Vic Fangio wants it to be ultimately, but they’re not quite fully formed yet. Quinyon Mitchell played all game as a rookie still, even if he showed his tremendous talent in one-on-one reps, and I believe their second-rounder Cooper DeJean will ultimately be their long-term solution at nickel over Avonte Maddox, whose 11 tackles were less telling about his run defense.

 

3. If the Packers are 2-2 when Jordan Love returns, they can still go all the way

Now, I can’t deny that this take isn’t also serving a larger purpose for me, since I picked the Packers to win the Super Bowl in my full-season predictions. However, even though it would’ve still taken a Hail Mary by Jordan Love to win that game in Brazil, rather than Malik Willis basically wasting the two final snaps, I thought there were lots of positives for Green Bay. According to PFF, their defense pressured Jalen Hurts on 16 of 39 dropbacks (41%), largely just rushing their front-four, outside of Saquon squeezing through and ripping off a 34-yard run at the end of the third quarter, they didn’t allow another carry of 12+ yards, and they forced three turnovers, with free agency addition Xavier McKinney showcasing his awareness and range, coming over for a pick after Quay Walker was just perfectly running the pole with DeVonta Smith in Tampa-2. Meanwhile, their offense could’ve easily had a much bigger output, if not for their receivers slipping on that disgraceful soccer field, which directly took off a second touchdown for Christian Watson running the back-line of the end-zone – and settling for a field goal there may have been the difference with that five-point margin. They got Josh Jacobs going in the second half and once Love got rid of some early flutters, he was exploiting the secondary for explosives. We’ll see if Willis can steer the ship whilst the Packers franchise QB is dealing with the MCL sprain, but between the Colts, Titans and Vikings, only the last of those at least is 1-0 right now, and two of those contests are at home.

 

 

  Pittsburgh Steelers @ Atlanta Falcons 

 

Final score – 18:10

 

1. T.J. Watt made an early case for Defensive Player of the Year

I would have to specifically watch individual players once again from this week one slate to make a definitive statement, but based on going from all the games, there were three players who stood out as front-runners for this award based on the very limited sample size – Chris Jones, Micah Parsons (who we’ll get to later) and T.J. Watt. He ended the day three QB hits, a couple of tackles for loss and the game-sealing sack. His quick hands were too much to handle for Falcons right tackle Kaleb McGary, softening the corner for himself to win with speed, countering inside by pulling the opposite arm over, and back-dooring zone concepts, like he did for a rapid stuff on Atlanta’s first snap in a goal-to-go situation. He should’ve had an even bigger day, as he hit the trifecta, winning the edge for a strip-sack plus the recovery, but because he timed the snap so perfectly, the refs thought he had to be offside and threw the flag. Let’s also acknowledge however how good Pittsburgh looked on the back-end, communicating stuff in zone coverage to pass off assignments and close down windows quickly, and after I saw some people question them extending 35-year-old Cam Heyward, he seemingly took that personal, driving back what I looked at a pretty good interior of Atlanta’s O-line.

 

2. If this the Kirk Cousins they’re going to get, Atlanta might as well start Michael Penix Jr.

Even before I got the film of this game myself, I watched this cut-up of Cousins from the end-zone angle posted by Warren Sharp, and I was mesmerized by it. The ball was spotted on either hash on all but three of the Falcons’ 28 dropbacks and he moved more than a foot off that line maybe twice across those. Really, the only time he actually did anything more than shuffle one step over and/or step into the throw was the touchdown to a wide-open Kyle Pitts on sort of a coverage bust. Now, going through the All-22 was a little more encouraging, as I saw him throw a strike to Darnell Mooney over the middle of the field on the game’s initial third down and generally was accurate underneath. However, he was a tad late working through his progressions, but at the same time skipped ahead to the checkdown early a few times when he did have chances to push the ball past the sticks. DeShon Elliott picked off the in-cut on a condensed “Mills” concept squatting on it the entire way and following Kirk’s eyes toggling across, before he short-armed a sideline shot with a collapsing pocket, down by five with just under three minutes left, for an easy INT by Donte Jackson. He looked like a guy that didn’t want to put a lot of pressure on the leg that he just tore his Achilles on or get hit altogether. His physical state also affected play-calling, as the Falcons almost exclusively ran the ball from pistol sets, but then couldn’t run bootlegs off that with Cousins, they had a 100% pass rate out of shotgun and they ran a quick screen to Bijan Robinson on third-and-goal from the ten. While I don’t it’d be warranted based on the way they got here, GM Terry Fontenot might look smart to some people in the end for doubling down the massive signing with the Michael Penix pick in the top ten.

3. This game was a declaration of war on the fantasy community

Okay, there is one caveat – George Pickens racked up 85 yards on six catches, although people may have benched him with the switch to a quarterback who did most of his work as a runner and facing a highly-paid corner in A.J. Terrell. Yet, even the only player to score a touchdown in Kyle Pitts, finished with only 26 yards on three catches and you may not be able to rely on him going forward. Bijan Robinson’s usage was certainly encouraging – and he absolutely looked the part – but Drake London finishing with 15 yards on three targets was the opposite. Now-Steelers OC Arthur Smith simply hates young, dynamic running backs, as Jaylen Warren finished with four touches (for 20 yards). Pittsburgh’s offense finished in the bottom-quartile for the week in both DVOA and EPA per play and the Giants were the only other team in the NFL that didn’t score a touchdown, yet their kicker Chris Boswell finished the day with 26(!) fantasy points, which was tied for seventh among all players for the week – with 49ers kicker Jake Moody, by the way. So even if you managed to avoid this matchup, you may have lost to the randomness of a freaking kicker.

 

 

  Arizona Cardinals @ Buffalo Bills 

 

Final score – 28:34

 

1. Kyler Murray is making defenses look foolish again

Outside of a few cool touches for their running backs on GT power concepts and hitting them in the flats off split-flow action, I’m not going to act like Drew Petzing’s offense lived up to my expectations to kick off year two of this operation. Unless you’re a fellow Greg Dortch enthusiast, I understand why people wouldn’t be happy with the utilization of targets among this Cardinals offense, as James Conner finished second in receiving yards (with 33) and fourth overall pick Marvin Harrison Jr. finished the day with one catch worth four yards (on four targets). Having said that, Kyler looked like one of the most dynamic dual-threat quarterbacks once again. The offensive line did a solid job throughout the day of giving Kyler time to scan the field, but you saw him scan across the field to exhaust his options, he was able to move around in ways that allowed him to erase rush angles and when he got to those second-reaction plays, he delivered the ball in a variety of ways, altering arm slots, touch and hitting a few trick-shots. Murray had the highest time to throw of all quarterbacks in week one (3.30 seconds), as he was constantly moving around and re-setting his feet, but then he was also quick like a hiccup when he decided to escape the pocket, shaking defenders out of their boots and ripping off solid chunks as a runner.

 

2. Josh Allen is the early front-runner for MVP … as I predicted

In my predictions for the entire 2024 NFL season, I outlined Josh as my favorite for the award, because I thought the circumstances were set up in a way where voters might end up giving him the nod over some candidates, considering the general perception of this Bills team that made saw such a grand roster overhaul. So while I believe we could see a more cohesive plan in how they attack opposing defenses, with offensive coordinator Joe Brady already making a significant commitment to being balanced with the run game once he received the interim title midway through last year, and spreading the wealth more across their pass-catching options, it was to question if this franchise might take a step back – especially with the long-term contributors they moved on from defensively as well. What remains true to me, and I guess that’ll become the general feeling around Buffalo, is that Josh has to do for his team to win than pretty much any other player in the league. Down 17-to-3 with three minutes left in the first half, this guy once again put on the cape and willed his men to victory. He was navigating muddy pockets and evading multiple points of pressure, where he was sliding around or spinning out of that space, wiggling himself out of what would be sacks against all but two or three other guys in the sport. He only completed one of two passes of 20+ air yards with Arizona’s defense playing a lot of soft zone, but he still finished top-two in adjusted EPA per play and success rate, peppering them underneath. Plus, he looked like an actual superhero on his second touchdown run of the day, when he hurdled a hard-charging Budda Baker in spectacular fashion.

 

3. Buffalo’s pass rush could wreak some havoc this year

As I just pointed out, the Bills went through a massive overhaul of their roster, particularly on defense, after yet another heart-breaking Divisional Round loss at the hands of the Chiefs – I actually wrote an extensive piece on them at the time. However, while expectations were fairly low after moving on from three former Pro Bowlers in the secondary, a few pieces up front and then losing Matt Milano to IR just about three weeks before kickoff, one unit at least showed out for them on Sunday – the defensive line. The headliner here of course is Gregory Rousseau with his three sacks on Kyler Murray. He was turning the corner on guys, sliding inside and using power to put heat on the Cardinals quarterback, along with single-handedly stuffing a power concept at one point. Yet, Von Miller’s re-emergence – at least for one performance so far – really hit me off guard. He actually finished just ahead of Rousseau with five QB pressures on just 19 pass-rush snaps, as those sort of sandwiched Murray for a sack with about five minutes left in the game, with Von driving right tackle Kelvin Beachum straight back there. According to PFF, Kyler was pressures on a massive 36.8% of his dropbacks, despite their top interior guy Ed Oliver having an atypically quiet day.

 

 

 

  Tennessee Titans @ Chicago Bears 

 

Final score – 17:24

 

1. The start for this Titans defense was a lot better than expected

I was sort of lukewarm on this Tennessee defense coming into the season. On paper, this was a unit that felt like they were trying to throw pieces at their secondary and import a system that was becoming the next hot thing around the league. Yet, their front was disruptive all day long, they mixed up looks on the back-end and seemingly had a beat on what Chicago was doing. The early signs for new defensive coordinator Dennard Wilson were definitely positive, as they spooked first overall pick Caleb Williams a few times with simulated pressures, created free rushers on stunts and I saw both Jeffery Simmons and 365-pound rookie T’Vondre Sweat drop into coverage at different points. However, this was more about the fundamentals he’s improved for this group, which we saw on display on Sunday – pinning receivers into sideline on tight man-to-man reps. The linebacker level is where I’m still certainly questioning what might happen once they face an offensive play-callers who understands how to isolate those guys, but the Bears got the punt block touchdown, a pick-six and had another field goal set up almost directly by a long kick return. Offensively, they put together just two drives of 30+ yards and ended the day with 2.8 yards per play.

 

2. Caleb Williams made matters worse, but the interior of Chicago’s O-line is a massive concern

Even with D’Andre Swift hurdling a man for a 20-yard run and D.J. Moore ripping off 14 yards on a fly sweep both in the fourth quarter, Chicago finished the day with just 3.8 yards per carry. All game, Tennessee’s defensive line was able to work off blocks, back-door offensive linemen and create penetration. In the pass game, they were beaten by brawn and brain. At one point, Jeffery Simmons literally bowled over both the right guard and made the center trip over as well, as he was trying to help, but then the guy at the pivot also turned his shoulders too early on a different third down and wasn’t able to pick up a delayed looper for what ended up being a big sack. That led to Caleb Williams immediately bailing at one point due to a low snap and once taking a 19-yard sack that pushed them out of field goal range, after running around trying to make something happen. The rookie’s worst trait coming out of USC, especially watching him operate behind a poor offensive line last year, was his tendency of compounding problems and trying to make something out of plays that defense has clearly won. That is something we could see rear its ugly head once again in Chicago if this trend continues and he doesn’t feel comfortable in that space back there, having to defer to being an off-schedule play-maker for large stretches of games.

 

3. Will Levis has to mature if he wants to stick in this league

Tennessee basically had this win in their pocket. Up 17-3 to start the second half, they forced a couple of penalties and got a sack on Caleb Williams to force fourth-and-30(!), but then had the ensuing punt blocked. Still, their defense allowed less than 100 total yards in the second half, with 148 overall on the day. Yet, on a third down early in the fourth quarter, Levis doesn’t simply hit DeAndre Hopkins on a shallow crosser right into the window left voided by a blitzing linebacker, because he wants to let it fly on a long-developing wheel routes and gets strip-sacked. Then, on another third down, he drifts into pressure off the edge trying to deliver an out route, and as he gets twisted down, tries to flip it out there, has the ball picked off and taken back for six, which compelled Levis to drop to his knees in disarray. The last interception was just him hoisting up a throw down the sideline on fourth-and-long in desperation mode. Yet, even the touchdown to Chig Okonkwo could’ve easily resulted in a pick, if the defender actually turns his head around. Levis had some bright moment, throwing strikes into windows that demanded anticipation along with obvious arm strength he brings to the table, but he cost them this game.

 

 

  New England Patriots @ Cincinnati Bengals 

 

Final score – 16:10

 

1. That was one of the most disappointing home losses to begin a season

This game didn’t only have the biggest spread of the week, with the Bengals favored by about eight points (depending on sportsbook), but they also were by far the most popular pick in survivor pools at around 40%. So for them to host what was considered one of the bottom-three teams in terms of win total projections, with issues throughout preseasons on their offensive line and wide receivers, with their two top players up front defensively not being there, as Christian Barmore is currently dealing with blood clots and they traded away Matthew Judon to Atlanta, after not being able to get a contract extension done, and lose by six points, is just embarrassing. Sure, Tee Higgins wasn’t available and Ja’Marr Chase didn’t put on a Bengals jersey until that week due to wanting to get extended, but despite being pressured at the third-lowest rate of his career, he averaged just 5.1 yards per dropback, with one completion of 20+ yards. Meanwhile, I bet the Over on Rhamondre Stevenson rushing yards (45.5) against what I thought was a questionable Cincy interior D-line, but he nearly tripled(!) that number.

 

2. New England’s defense is true difference-making unit

One of the points I kept coming back to over the course of the offseason, simply because I felt like nobody ever talked about – these Patriots finished last year top-ten in the two main analytical measures (DVOA and EPA per play defensively), despite getting basically zero help from their offense and losing both their top pass-rusher and corner for the majority of the season. Yet, while I was pounding the drum for them maintaining that level of excellence with stability in personnel and Jerod Mayo calling the shots, once it was clear that both Barmore and Judon wouldn’t be there, I did start to doubt things. However, when they rolled into Cincinnati, you saw them change up the picture on the back-end entirely as the ball was snapped, but also just how they passed off assignments in zone coverage or how well-schooled their guys are at picking up receivers as they release out of stacks and declare the pattern, it felt fundamentally sound. They strategically blitzed a handful of times to force throws short of the sticks, Keion White started off what I projected to be a breakout season and Christian Gonzalez put the clamps on Ja’Marr Chase, only allowing three catches for 14 yards. Now, I will say that they did get pretty lucky on one of the most insane overturned touchdowns, where Mike Gesicki high-pointed the ball and got down in the end-zone with a butt-cheek and knee hitting, but then losing grip on. But even then, on the very next snap, as the other Tanner Hudson is about to cross the plane, safety Kyle Dugger slaps the ball out and New England recovers.

 

3. Lou Anarumo will need to work magic to fix this Cincinnati defense

One my burning questions at the end of June already for this Bengals team was how they would go about limiting explosive plays and getting off the field defensively, following a very underwhelming 2023 season in that regard. After finishing 11^th and eighth respectively in the two previous years, they dropped all the way down to 27^th. Yet, while they were allowing chunks in both the run and pass game, a lot of their issues stemmed from a safety tandem that didn’t communicate and control things at nearly the same level as previously, and nobody they could trust in man-coverage outside of Cam Taylor-Britt (who missed five games). Bringing back Vonn Bell and poaching Geno Stone from the division rival Ravens felt like they’d get things back in order, while third-year man Dax Hill looked like a strong transition candidate to corner. Those things may still prove true in the long run, but on Sunday it didn’t even matter, because their interior run defense was an even bigger problem than I anticipated and because they brought extra bodies down into the box, once they couldn’t corral Rhamondre Stevenson around the line of scrimmage, suddenly he was ripping off 10-15 yarders by will. Big Lou will have to find a happy medium where they can stop the run on early downs without compromising what they do on the back-end, in order to get to obvious passing situations, where he can grab into his bag of tricks.

 

 

  Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts 

 

Final score – 29:27

 

1. Both of these young quarterbacks can legitimately take over games

Of the early Sunday slate, this was the game I was looked forward to most, considering the two guys running the show for both of these offenses, from a play-calling and quarterbacking perspective, and it absolutely lived up to the hype I created in my own head. And by no means am I saying this was a back-and-forth shootout, because in reality, these two sides scored on just five of their first 13 possessions. Still, C.J. Stroud finding a variety of ways to convert on crucial downs and Anthony Richardson pulling explosive plays out of his you-know-what, ended up producing 56 total points. On Houston’s first possessions of the day, Stroud got to the sticks on a rare third-and-13 scramble, and then when they got to fourth-and-inches next, he slipped running a bootleg, yet kept his composure to find his tight-end peeling off and completing the pass from his knees. In the fourth quarter, he found Nico Collins across the field running out to his right on a third-and-14 and hit him for the spectacular diving grab at the sideline for a pivotal third-and-11 conversion to bleed the clock, up by two points. Meanwhile, Indy converted exactly half of their 12 combined third and fourth downs, but it’s Richardson’s 60-yard hoist off his backfoot perfectly into the bucket for Alec Pierce after slipping initially, the 54-yard rifle to Ashton Dulin just past the outstretched hand of a defender over the middle, and then the fourth-and-goal scramble, where he made a linebacker miss before plowing through a safety for the final yard, that will be burned into my brain.

 

2. Joe Mixon should significantly boost Houston’s early down rushing efficiency

If you had told me one of these two teams would rack up over 200 yards on the ground prior to kickoff, there is no way I would’ve put my money on Houston. It’s a similar QB-RB dynamic that I discussed for Baltimore that I envisioned being really tough for opponents to prepare for between Richardson and Jonathan Taylor, but they got doubled up in production. That’s shocking considering how inefficient the Texans were last season running the ball on early downs, in large part to serve as the means of their explosive play-action game. The 213 rushing yards they amassed on Sunday were 25 more than any game they played all of last season and Joe Mixon’s 159 alone would’ve ranked second for them. We saw more variety in the run game, going away from 21 personnel since they cut Andrew Beck prior to the season, but they used multi-tight-looks on 39% of snaps and still put one of those guys in the I-formation quite regularly. They attacked the edges of Indy’s defense with some toss plays and because of the way Houston moved bodies across the formation along with not tipping off if they’ll go strong- or weak-side, that second level of the defense looked kind of frozen. That is now paired with a guy in Mixon who has excellent vision and size, to where if he’s given that runway, he can drag tacklers along with him for additional yardage. And now, this offense that can also spread opponents out with arguably the premier WR trio in the league, so it becomes almost impossible to defend.

 

3. This Colts D needs to add some more change-ups to get off the field on third downs

Talking about diversity from a schematic and personnel standpoint, that’s the exact opposite to what we saw from Indianapolis’ DC Gus Bradley. This man left the Seahawks, where he previously held the same job, in 2012 – a year before Seattle actually won the Super Bowl – to become the head coach in Jacksonville, thanks to the way he had helped bring the Legion of Boom to prominence and based on running a strongly defined scheme, where they’d run a ton of press-bail cover-three paired with a few cools stunts and twists by a loaded front. Over the course of four seasons, he went 14-and-48 before getting fired, then took over as DC for a talent-laden Chargers team, where they steadily declined in points per game (third, eighth and then 14^th), had a one-year stint with the Raiders, who gave up 30 PPG that season, before arriving in Indianapolis. Somehow, he survived the mess that was the transition from Frank Reich to the interim tenure of Jeff Saturday before hiring Shane Steichen as the head-man, only to reward them with back-to-back seasons in which they finished 28^th each in points allowed. And the D-line certainly had its moments on Sundays, but because of how predictable Bradley has remained as the only offspring from that Seattle tree to still stick to what used to be the defensive meta seven years ago, he continues to put his young back-seven in predicaments. All but one of their four actual third-/fourth-down stops were sacks, where someone won their individual matchup.

 

 

 

  Jacksonville Jaguars @ Miami Dolphins 

 

Final score – 17:20

 

1. The Jaguars remain the most frustrating team to watch across the NFL

When rookie wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr. caught that first touchdown, where he had to toe-tap at the back-line of the end-zone off a beautiful anticipation throw by Trevor Lawrence, I thought that was a healing moment following all the issues this team had in the red-zone and all these almost-TDs last season in that fashion. And there’s just no way this team should’ve lost on Sunday. Yet, up 17-7 at the tail-end of 93-yard drive, it looks like Travis Etienne is about to put this game out of reach with a touchdown as he’s bursting up the middle before he has the ball punched out by Jevon Holland at the two-yard line. They recover the fumble in the end-zone and on the very next snap, Tua Tagovailoa hits Tyreek Hill on a deep crossing route off play-action for an 80-yard touchdown. They don’t even get punished when they fail to convert fourth-and-one from their 32 to open the fourth quarter, as Jason Sanders sails the field goal try. But they have a bad drop on their next third down, before Miami ties the score and then Trevor is sacked on back-to-back plays, where they’re once again running these static spacing concepts I complained about in a video two months ago, before Sanders bangs in the 52-yard game-winner.

 

2. Even when the Dolphins offense feels disjointed, they have the firepower to change games

On a day where Trevor Lawrence looked worth every bit of those 55 million dollars annually in the first half (and he was let down by several of the guys around him after that) and they only converted two of their first seven third and fourth down attempts combined, with Devon Achane ripping off an explosive gain on a screen pass and Tyreek Hill being wide open on a little flat route out of the backfield, they still somehow put up 400 yards and won the game. Tua misfired on a couple of deep balls early on and until their final two drives, they had a grand total of 32 yards on the ground (on 14 carries), with 11 of those coming on a rare Tua scramble. However, Jaylen Waddle caught a 63-yarder and Tyreek Hill scored from 80 yards off the game-altering fumble, where once the safety in a two-high look closes down on a curl by Tyreek and Waddle comes in crossing the field behind him, and on the second one it’s basically flipped as the robber in cover-one keys on the pop-slant by Waddle, but Tua resets and find #10 working across behind him. Also, Devon Achane had three different catches around the line of scrimmage, which he turned into 10+ yards.

 

3. Ryan Nielsen has this Jags defense playing with a different level of urgency

Having said that about the Dolphins’ explosive weapons among their skill-position group, the reason it took those big plays for Miami to somehow win this game is the fact that Jacksonville’s defense on a play-to-play basis was making life incredibly hard on this group. Outside of the long balls by Hill and Waddle along with the early third down screen by Achane, the Phins averaged just 3.5 yards per play. Looking at their defensive line in particular, the way they fired off the ball to disrupt the backfield and the level of energy they brought rushing the passer was palpable, racking up eight negative plays. The guys on the second level seemed to know where their eyes should be, shooting gaps in the run game and contesting passing lanes. And on the back-end, they didn’t do anything super-exotic, but they rotated a safety down late regularly in order to take away Tua’s first read, their guys in man-coverage stayed plastered to those receivers for the most part and when that ball came out, you saw everybody flying to the ball, securing several tackles short of the sticks. If their offense doesn’t have a couple of f-ups at the end of the game, we’re talking very differently about this unit.

 

 

  Carolina Panthers @ New Orleans Saints 

 

Final score – 10:47

 

1. I’m so sorry, Panthers fans

Not that Carolina was expected to be a factor for the playoff race or anything like that, but there was reason for optimism of things being way up. Dave Canales was taking over as head coach and looking to help Bryce Young bounce back from a rough rookie campaign, after just having being a key figure in the re-ascent of another former first overall pick in Baker Mayfield, with a lot of new pieces around the quarterback, and continuity on defense under Ejiro Evero. The operation and execution offensively were equally horrendous. Bryce threw a pick on his very first pass of the season, but even more glaring were two of three sacks by nickel Alontae Taylor coming with him unblocked, walked up to the line of scrimmage, with no hot-check or adjustment in their protection to account for him. Meanwhile, Derek Car had just one more incompletion (four) than touchdowns, New Orleans rushed for 180 yards and they scored on each of their first nine possessions, before their starters. Focusing all their resources on putting an infrastructure to succeed around their second-year QB, left its marks. And now, probably Carolina’s best player in nose-tackle Derrick Brown was just placed on season-ending injured reserve. So trading him for future pieces isn’t even an option anymore. Ultimately, this franchise is doomed until owner Dave Tepper sells this franchise again, because his lack of professionalism in how he handles himself will drag everything down with him. The one silver lining – at least they’ll make their own first-round pick next year. Just keep pounding, guys.

 

2. It’s not yet time for this Saints defense to fall off

For as putrid as the Panthers offense looked like, the early signs for Dennis Allen’s defensive group are pretty encouraging. One of the things I was asking myself this offseason was if we’d finally see the age of this unit show up, considering their four most notably and expensive names – Cam Jordan, Demario Davis, Marshon Lattimore and Tyrann Mathieu – have compiled a total of 47(!) season in the NFL. Turning the Panthers into the 31^st-ranked offensive unit in terms of DVOA and EPA play would indicate “no”. That’s about where they ranked last season as well, but they did invest a lot financially, in terms of draft picks and who they handed the Bryce Young project over to, in order to fast-track this group to success, and yet all of their 11 first downs felt like minor miracles. New Orleans held their division foes to under three yards per rush, they pressured the QB on just under 40% of his dropbacks, hauled in two interceptions on overthrown balls by Young and Honeybadger punched the ball out of Jonathan Mingo’s hands for another big turnover early on. Free agency addition Chase Young led the team with five pressures, they were able to scheme up a couple of free runners and while stayed pretty simple on the back-end, they were in the grill of their Carolina receivers all day long.

 

3. Klint Kubiak’s impact on New Orleans’ offense can already be felt

The Saints new OC was part of my list of “most pivotal figures” heading into the 2024 season (LINK !!). I detailed his coaching career leading up to this point, if you want to dive in a little more, but this is his second chance of calling plays and so far, he hadn’t proven that he can live up to his pedigree as son of Gary Kubiak. What I pointed out in that video is that the bar was set fairly low by his predecessor Pete Carmichael, whose oldschool West Coast principles were rather antiquated and not nearly as effective without a supercomputer back there like Drew Brees. What I wanted to see is more variety in the run game and then taking some of those decisions of Derek Carr’s plate in the straight dropback game, while encouraging him to push the ball down the field more regularly. Well, they had five different players carry the ball a total of 37 times for 180 yards, they ran plenty of bootleg action off that (40% play-action overall with Kubiak having his roots in the Shanahan-style outside zone game, there were lots of great timing-based throws, where Carr needed to trust the space will open up as his targets snap off their routes, they had motion on an week one-high 88% of their pass attempts and the QB was only pressured on three of his 25 dropbacks for the day. Of course, 59-yard touchdown throw to Rashid Shaheed to cap off New Orleans’ first drive of the day, veteran safety Jordan Fuller – someone who’s succeeded in this league based on discipline and football IQ – steps down from the high post and allows the speedster to get in behind him, with Jaycee Horn expecting help inside – stuff like that definitely helps.

 

 

  Minnesota Vikings @ New York Giants 

 

Final score – 28:6

 

1. Brian Flores is birthing a new iteration of Minnesota’s defense

One of the schematic things I really wanted to pay attention to early on this season was the evolution of this Vikings defense, under a coordinator who has consistently elevated the pieces at his disposal by being a step ahead of the competition in terms of the Xs and Os. In 2023, he opted for kind of an all-or-nothing approach on passing downs, where either they rushed 6+ defenders or dropped eight guys into coverage, while doing a masterful job of disguising what they were doing. Something that stood out throughout the day was the hybrid fronts Minnesota presented, with their inside linebackers mugging up and backing out of gaps and Andrew Van Ginkel almost hiding behind his fellow linemen before shuffling outside in order to alter leverage points, along with getting a pick-six off a quick screen. Josh Metellus was used patrolling the middle of the field as a dime backer, reading Daniel Jones’ eyes and ranging out to throws around the numbers, and there were several new fun elements, combining pressure packages and presenting a variety of looks on the back-end that are tough to decipher, before the rush could get home. At one point in the first half, Minnesota had seven guys up at the line of scrimmage, including just two true defensive linemen with a hand in the dirt, and safety Harrison was nearly at the numbers to the short side of the field, yet as the quarterback got into his cadence, he flew out into the deep post and buzzed down what was originally the single-high guy. And of course, Daniel Jones didn’t know what he was seeing, leading to an errant throw. This could be a fun weekly watch, going back to the tape, yet again.

 

2. Malik Nabers being an absolute superstar is the only hope for this Giants offense

It was a pretty big day for the New York Football Giants, considering they were celebrating the 100^th season of existence for their franchise and “honored” that with their “interesting” uniforms. Unfortunately, what they put on the field didn’t nearly live up to their otherwise proud history and not even sixth overall pick Malik Nabers (from LSU) was able to “swag (those throwback jerseys) up”. They were one of only two teams in the league to not reach the end-zone during opening week and defensively, they allowed the Vikings to finish top-ten in both EPA and success rate in the run and the pass game each. There were some cool designs by Brian Daboll and OC Mike Kafka, but nothing sustainable in terms of quarterback play or difference-makers on that side of the ball other than the flashes Nabers showed, outside of maybe Wan’Dale Robinson. Vikings DBs barely got a hand on this guy, he plucked the ball between bodies converging on the throw and the wiggle you saw spark after the catch. The one other true bright spot was Dexter Lawrence, whose film was flat-out unreal, and he was able to rack up an insane 40% pressure rate, largely lining up at the nose. There may need to be real conversations about what they could get in return for him in a trade, if his prime doesn’t coincide with their current timeline as an organization, which could soon look very different. They also punted the ball with 36 seconds left on a fourth-and-12, instead of just dealing with a potential turnover on downs, but at least trying to do anything late.

 

3. Sam Darnold is the truth … or at least proved his truthers right for now

This is another guy who made the list of “most pivotal figures” entering this season for me, because of the implications of a highly drafted rookie QB being on the roster and Sam getting the best shot of his career to remind people why he was selected third overall by the Jets back in 2018. In his first outing with Minnesota, he finished second to only Baker Mayfield in the EPA + CPOE composite score (0.281), which measures the expected points added per dropback and how his completion percentage exceeded what was expected based on the play. This looked more like the offenses Kevin O’Connell came up with in the NFL, as they moved the launch-point regularly off play-action and took advantage of a quarterback very comfortable with delivering on the move. Darnold was driving the ball to swirl/comeback routes on the outside right as guys came out of their breaks, I saw him widen the field-side safety in cover-two with his eyes and fire in seam routes to split the deep coverage, and most importantly, he looked calm out there as he’s working deep into progressions, dumping the ball off underneath if the play simply wasn’t there. My favorite throw of his however cames on a high-seven route out of a WR stack against what looked like cover-three, where the corner is playing off, Justin Jefferson switching-releasing and then stemming inside of the guy picking him up before bending towards the sideline, where Sam dropped an absolute dime from the opposite hash. Now that’s paired with with looked like the best run game during Kevin O’Connell’s tenure in Minnesota, with the wide zone toss, counter variations, etc., while Aaron Jones provided the burst to win the corner as well as the slipperiness to get through congested spaces. That’s how they didn’t set up their QB with many third-and-long situations.

 

 

  Las Vegas Raiders @ Los Angeles Chargers 

 

Final score – 10:22

 

1. The Chargers defense looked like a post-hype sleeper unit

Following the departure of publicly disliked Brandon Staley and handing this franchise over to one of the most prominent figures in football across all levels with Jim Harbaugh, there was a lot of excitement about this franchise finally turning things around. The imprint of him, offensive coordinator Greg Roman and even general manager Joe Hortiz, coming over from Baltimore where he had previously worked for multiple years with Roman, was very much felt on offense specifically, as they parted ways with their expensive WR duo of Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, brought in the Ravens backfield duo of J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards, made their one significant multi-year signing a true Y tight-end in Will Dissly and drafted All-American tackle Joe Alt (Notre Dame) sixth overall. Meanwhile, it was rather surprising to see them keeping the defense intact for the large, with safety Derwin James and the edge tandem of Khalil Mack and Joey Bosa accounting for a grand total of 71.5 million dollars this season (the top three individual marks on the team). They also added a corner who performed well two years ago on a bargain in Kristian Fulton and the blue-dot guy for DC Jesse Minter coming along from Michigan, with Junior Colson as a third-rounder, who led their off-ball linebackers with a 58% snap rate. They were facing an offense with definitive questions, but they held the Raiders – who pride themselves on controlling games on the ground – to 71 rushing yards on 22 attempts, they spooked Gardner Minshew enough with their simulated pressures to pull the ball down and their pass-rush was able to get home.

 

2. Maxx Crosby and Christian Wilkins will have save Antonio Pierce’s job

I’d love to give Raiders fans a little bit more of an optimistic outlook for the rest of this season, because they absolutely pulled themselves together once Pierce took over interim duties after Josh McDaniels was fired and the locker room suddenly had someone they actually wanted to play for. Unfortunately, there was nothing I saw on Sunday that makes me say anything more than that they’ll be annoying to play against for teams that aren’t overly comfortable getting dragged down into the mud for low-scoring, slow-paced games. They averaged just 3.2 yards per rush, the passes Minshew did complete for meaningful yardage were to his primary targets breaking towards the middle of the field – which is his best and sometimes worst trait, blindly trusting the offensive design that they’ll be available – they converted just a third of their combined third- and fourth-down tries (5 of 15) and they lost the turnover battle three-to-nothing. Patrick Graham’s defense hung in pretty tough, until they allowed J.K. Dobbins to bust a 61-yard run once they were tired out late, which set up the game-sealing touchdown. However, they’ll need for these two star players up front to take over games with their disruptive ability to actually have a chance to get to the mandatory gamescript for wins, and even then, you can’t have Crosby get neutralized to a large extent when he went up against this Chargers tackle duo. Especially as nobody’s masking Pierce’s decisions, where he decides to punt on a fourth-and-inches inside opposing territory with about seven minutes left and down by six.

 

3. J.K. Dobbins has a chance to be this year’s Kyren Williams

Finally, let me show some love to one of my favorite running back prospects from a few years ago, who looked primed for becoming a legit difference-maker at the position in Baltimore before injuries started to derail his career. Following a rookie season in which he racked up 925 yards and nine touchdowns on just 152 touches, Dobbins tore his ACL in the final preseason game of 2021 and missed the entire year. While missing the first two weeks of the season after that, he put up very similar numbers to his debut campaign as primary option out of the Ravens backfield and I thought was poised for a massive final year of his initial contract. Yet, he didn’t even make it through the opener before a torn Achilles brought along yet another massive set-back. So as murky as the Chargers RB situation was coming into this season and that was reflected in me picking him for free off the waiver wire in multiple fantasy leagues, what he showed in his first outing in the powder blue has to have anybody associated very excited. On only ten carries, he ripped off 135 yards and a touchdown, along with catching all three passes his way (for only four yards). He was hitting the hole with zero hesitation, displayed excellent balance to bounce off angled tackle, his pacing and utilization of blockers that made me fall in love with him as a young player were on display and while the defense did end up catching him, he showed his explosiveness on runs of 46 and 61 yards respectively.

 

 

  Denver Broncos @ Seattle Seahawks 

 

Final score – 20:26

 

1. The right side of Seattle’s offensive line was an absolute wreck

Let’s start with the positives here – left tackle Charles Cross actually finished Sunday as the highest-graded player at his position according to Pro Football Focus, but the numbers gradually got lower as you moved all the way to the opposite end of the line. Now, especially coming off a week where I have to highly question their grading system as it pertains to a few players (such as Matt Stafford in comparison to horrible quarterbacks for example), these numbers have to taken with a grain of salt, but watching the tape backed that up. Right tackle George Fant didn’t even make it through the first quarter before getting banged up and replaced by a seventh-round pick from a couple of years ago in Stone Forsyth, who was responsible for a sack, QB hit and penalty each across 20 pass-blocking snaps. Meanwhile, there’s a good chance the guy one spot over in Anthony Bradford one spot over will be swapped for second-round rookie Christian Haynes, considering I really liked his ability to be plugged in right away. He earned a PFF pass-blocking mark of 30.9 and he was called for holding twice, including when he stupidly hooked the nose-tackle on a rollout protection, which resulted in the first of two safeties on the day against the Seahawks.

 

2. Denver’s way of running offense with a rookie quarterback isn’t sustainable

The idea of Sean Payton bringing in 12^th overall pick Bo Nix from Oregon was having this guy who’s started more games than any quarterback coming out of college as his new version of Drew Brees in an offense that runs the ball at a high rate and makes opponents bleed with a bunch of paper cuts, because that guy sees the field well and spreads the wealth. And I was actually a defender of Nix during the draft process, as my QB3, but some of the concerns about his just half over half of his production last season coming in passes less than 10 yards beyond the line of scrimmage, were on full display in his first NFL outing. On 51 dropbacks, Nix had a net of 173 yards – and 23 of those came on one scramble. Not only was Denver’s success rate of 27.5% worse than all other teams not named the Browns for the week, but there were only ten offensive performances that would’ve ranked lower in that regard in all of 2023. Part of this of course how Payton wanted his rookie QB to operate, but he also turned down opportunities to push the ball past the sticks, the timing wasn’t perfectly synced and of course facing a defense like Seattle’s, who can throw off guys with all the different looks they present, was going to be highly challenging.

 

3. You already feel Mike Macdonald’s imprint on the Hawks D

Speaking of that Seattle defense, they were able to get a lot of things accomplished that this new regime set their eyes on when they communicated the vision behind this system back in training camp. They certainly benefitted from facing that rookie quarterback in his first start, but they finished week one as the number one unit in DVOA (-56.2%). We saw a pretty strong rotation up front, allowing them to turn around what had been a poor run defense over the last couple of years. Taking out that 23-yard scramble by Bo Nix, Denver finished the day with 76 rushing yards on 24 carries. Meanwhile, the QB averaged just 3.3 yards per pass attempt and felt like he was seeing ghosts with the way Seattle crowded the line of scrimmage in defined dropback settings. Leonard Williams racked up four QB hits, one of which directly led to a toe-tap pick at the front-pylon by Julian Love, and Riq Woolen was locking up Courtland Sutton for large stretches of the day (four catches for 38 yards on 12 targets). Devon Witherspoon made his presence felt on multiple occasions, blitzing off the slot as well as tackling in space, and Boye Mafe finished the week behind only Micah Parsons and Aidan Hutchinson with nine total pressures – and he did so on the fewest opportunities among those three.

 

 

 

  Dallas Cowboys @ Cleveland Browns 

 

Final score – 33:17

 

1. Micah Parsons is really athletic – right, Tom?

This of course is a comment on Tom Brady’s first time in the booth, with mixed results at best, I’d say. He did mention to some degree how new Cowboys defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer used his game-wrecker on passing downs, but at least five times I thought Tom referred to Micah being “really athletic”, which probably anybody sitting at home on their couch can probably point out. Nevertheless, it was cool to see this guy be a game-wrecker through more avenues, as Zimm used him as a spinner, stood him up over the guards and at times slanted him across the center’s face, involved him on some twists or delayed loops, along with letting him rush off the edge with his hand in the ground. He was an absolute monster, winning with his explosiveness, flexibility to reduce his surface area, but also his still growing football IQ of how to limit the impact of getting chipped and still creating favorable angles for him. We’ll have to see how consistently Dallas can get into third-and-longs when they actually face competent offenses, but I loved seeing him be deployed as a queen on the chess board.

 

2. If they can get any help from the opposite side of the ball, Cleveland’s defense can still be dominant

Watching the game, Cowboys wide receiver Ceedee Lamb was able to win vs. two of the game’s best man-corners and quarterback Dak Prescott had an excellent play, where he recognized the Browns were running cover-zero and he let the ball go extra early to a spot for Brandin Cooks on a corner route for the game’s first touchdown. Aside from that, that offense had one sustained drive that ended in a touchdown. Across their 11 other possessions, they gained a total of 92 yards, with their running backs averaging just 3.7 yards and Dak having two turnover-worthy plays (vs. just that one big-time throw on that initial TD). Along with stopping the run, the D-line was able to create pressure when they got to those designated passing settings, some of their DBs got hands on the ball after playing tight-man-coverage and they’re going to give a lot of offenses problems if they don’t have those aces to take advantage on their aggressive but somewhat transparent tendencies. In neutral game-scripts, this looked very much like the unit that finished top-two by pretty much any important metric last season. But …

 

3. Deshaun Watson is ruining the re-ascent of this franchise

The Browns are coming off a season in which they rotated through four different quarterbacks – with clearly the best one among them being a 39-year-old Joe Flacco joining the squad off his couch – but with how dominant the defense was and the ways Kevin Stefanski drew up plays on offense that helped them win schematic battles, they somehow won ten games. Therefore, a lot of the discussions this offseason were built around “if Deshaun Watson can just give them average play”. Well, even if you want to bring up that they went 5-1 with him as a starter last year and that he did have one good half against the Ravens, there’s just nothing you can show me on tape across his time in Cleveland that would indicate he can be that “average” performer. There are way too sprays accuracy-wise, the spotty pocket presence compounds any issues they may have up front and the decision-making has been highly questionable. Obviously, you don’t want this guy to drop back 50 times a game and they’ll probably lean more heavily on the run game, but with the infrastructure you’ve built around him and how you’ve tried to accommodate your quarterback schematically, that guy can’t go 2-of-15 on third downs.

 

 

  Washington Commanders @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers 

 

Final score – 20:37

 

1. Bringing the band back together is looking good so far for Tampa Bay

The Bucs were an interesting team this offseason, as a division champion who won a playoff game, but didn’t inspire a ton of confidence understanding the path they took to get there. So we weren’t sure what the plan at quarterback would be, coming off a resurrection season from Baker Mayfield but now losing the offensive coordinator who played a huge part in it, and some of their other long-time veterans. Well, at least on offense they returned the full squad, most notably Baker and Mike Evans. That connection remained deadly, highlighted by a tremendous touchdown grab, where cornerback Benjamin St. Juste was right in Mike’s grill on a fade route, but the placement of the ball was perfect and the savvy veteran wideout was able to swipe his arm over at the last moment to his align his hands for the ball – his first of two in that matchup by the way. Between the veteran trio of Evans, Chris Godwin and running back Rachaad White, they hauled in all but one of 20 combined targets. And of the 14 third downs that Baker dropped back for, he converted ten, including a pair of touchdowns, while the first one of the day should’ve probably been another score, if not for the ball going off the fingertips of rookie Jalen McMillian on a wheel route.

 

2. Washington’s offense consisted of Jayden Daniels scrambles and not much else

Looking purely at the numbers, seeing the Commanders put up 20 points, 300 yards basically and not turning the ball over doesn’t appear too bad. However, they logged just 50 yards rushing outside of the second overall pick (on 14 carries) and their wide receivers and tight-end for just 83 yards through the air (on ten catches). Tampa Bay clogged up the middle when Jayden handed the ball off and their passing game felt very much like a Kliff Kingsbury offense, with the eligibles locked in place and nothing to stress the rules of coverages. The rookie QB rarely got to his second read, didn’t trust what he was seeing or what the pocket felt like and just said “I’m out of here”. His speed was clearly on display a couple of times he had lanes to take off through or Tampa Bay’s edge rushers surrendered contain responsibilities, and he did a nice job of reducing his frame with defenders nearby along with – most importantly – going down in order to avoid big hits. But that’s not a sustainable offensive model, facing three third downs with 18+ yards to go, and I question why they were using designed runs with him when the game was already over, especially for a franchise that has experience watching a dual-threat rookie QB get hurt – and never look the same.

 

3. Dan Quinn is still stuck in his old ways

This point is very much connected to the paragraph on Colts defensive coordinator Gus Bradley and how he’s unapologetically remained the same guy for over a decade now in terms of the philosophies and schematics he believes in, as the landscape of the NFL has continued to shift. Now, I will say that Quinn most definitely has had much better success as a coordinator recently, leading the Cowboys to the league’s top mark in EPA per play across his three seasons in Dallas, before taking a second shot at being a head coach with the division-rival Commanders. Having said that, he’s still somewhat trapped in the ideas he was brought up with in Seattle. And while his defenses have been far superior, his rise has been tied to a tremendous level of talent at his disposal, plus he’s continued to run into similar problems once the playoffs rolled around. Quinn’s Cowboys actually finished second last season in terms of single-high safety coverages (69.5%) – just ahead of Bradley’s Colts – only he had the horses to actually call cover-one man, and because they were playing with the lead so much and could feast on poor opponents, they were almost exclusively in nickel or dime personnel (94.4%). Once they faced a team like the Packers, who could effectively run the ball and challenged them to actually be sound in both facets, not getting the offense behind the chains, they struggled. Zhat’s what we saw in his debut for Washington, when Baker Mayfield put up an astronomical, week-high EPA per play (0.689), being predictable with leaving those corners on islands against a strong receiving corp, and suddenly allowing the worst rushing attack of the last two years to rip off a few explosives at the end.

 

 

  Los Angeles Rams @ Detroit Lions 

 

Final score – 20:26

 

1. Detroit needs to rely on their offensive line to control games

What an incredible thriller we got to enjoy on Sunday night, when Matt Stafford and company rolled into town to get their revenge for getting knocked out in an equally exciting back-and-forth Wildcard contest. However, I’m sure Lions fans would’ve rather not relied upon getting a stop on defense and then putting together a two-minute drill to make it to overtime, after leading 17-3 five minutes into the second half. Across their three drives after that, they only ran the ball three times – all with Jahmyr Gibbs – Jared Goff was picked off by veteran safety John Johnson III trying to go late over the middle with his sitting there as a robber and he was lucky that Cobie Durant couldn’t quite finish a high-point grab for another one, sinking with a fade down the sideline in cover-two. When they got to overtime, the Rams D was certainly tired – and Detroit was lucky to win the coin toss – but they punched the ball down those guys’ throats with David Montgomery, as the only dropback on that 80-yard TD drive was a little swing pass to Gibbs. There’ll be better days for Goff and the aerial attack, thanks to the opportunities offensive coordinator Ben Johnson is capable of creating, and especially with the early returns we got from Jameson Williams – absolutely dusting veteran corner Tre’Davious White for a 52-yard touchdown on a double-move at one point. Yet, the formula for them to rely upon is to not allow their opponents to force them into shootouts, but rather control the clock and tire out defenses, so those play-action shots are even more deadly.

 

2. Meanwhile, the Rams are already in disarray up front already

On the opposite end of the spectrum, we got some weird vibes about this L.A. offensive line shortly before the season kicked off and things just completely derailed from that point onwards. What I’m referring to about this unit in the last couple of weeks leading up to this opener is the reshuffling on this offensive line, as Jonah Jackson suddenly was the favorite to start at center, where they were supposed to move second-year man Steve Avila, with both having been left guards exclusively their final years of college and then in the NFL. That’s how they started out this contest, but they were also without starting right tackle Rob Havenstein, who was replaced by last year’s fifth-round pick Warren McClendon, who promptly gave up with pressures and was penalized twice, after logging a grand total of 32 snaps as a rookie. Meanwhile, left tackle Joe Noteboom was sidelined early in the second quarter and his replacement was seventh-rounder A.J. Arcuri from two years ago, who had seen legit playing time in one game as a rookie before spending all of last year on the practice squad. He went on to get massacred on national television by Aidan Hutchinson, as he was holding on for dear life and registered the lowest PFF pass-blocking grade I’ve ever seen (1.9 – out of 100). Finally, Avila was pulled after trying to go for the first snap of the second half, forcing them to move Jackson back to left guard and bring in sixth-round center Beaux Limmer (Arkansas). I liked him in the draft and his showing was actually easily the most promising. But the guy who led the league in rushing yards per game last season in Kyren Williams averaged a miniscule 2.6 yards a pop. Nonetheless, while I don’t want to minimize what improvement the D in Detroit showed, if the Rams continue to be this depleted up front, it’ll take more heroic performances by Stafford and the name up next to even stay in games.

 

3. Cooper Kupp might just break the single-season reception record

I’ll keep myself shorter on this last point, because it’s a pretty simple one. This looked very much like the Cooper Kupp we saw win the triple-crown for receivers three years and topped it off by earning MVP honors in the Super Bowl, being able to foot-fake defenders he was isolated with underneath, plucking incredible toe-drag grabs at the sideline, eating vs. zone-coverage and turning upfield for positive yardage. He was in motion on an insane 42(!) snaps, he added ten yards on a couple of jet sweeps and tied a career-high 14 catches. Right now, he’s on pace for 238 receptions on 357 targets. Lol.

 

 

  New York Jets @ San Francisco 49ers 

 

Final score – 19:32

 

1. This has a chance to be the best 49ers offensive line in the Kyle Shanahan era

Making a statement like this for a team that just was in a tier by in DVOA and EPA per play, and had finished top-six in both each of the two previous seasons, may come across a bit hyperbolic. However, if you actually studied the individual pieces up front – outside of all-time great left tackle Trent Williams of course – and put into context what they were asked to do or how Shanahan was able to mask some deficiencies, this has been a rather underwhelming unit on paper throughout that time. That was on display in both of San Francisco’s Super Bowl performances, which Chris Jones was able to take over eventually. The way Kyle has continued to create advantages with the wide zone principles he’s installed, how he’s evolved that with adding numbers through a variety of shifts and change-ups, they’ve been able to have a lot of success on the ground, as well as off play-action, before they shifted to being more of a dropback team last year, with Brock Purdy being able to get the ball out quickly as they put defenders in conflict through that avenue. I didn’t love the Niners extending right tackle Colton McKivitz this offseason, but he may have had the best game of his career on Monday Night. Left guard Aaron Banks continues his slow but steady development and the guy on the opposite side of the center – third-round rookie Dominick Puni (Kansas) – was able to show off his best traits, as a excellent lateral mover to get to the front-side of defenders as they stretch defenses horizontally, and then his mirror skills in pass-pro really stood out. That’s how even with Christian McCaffrey being named a surprise inactive shortly before kickoff, you can have Jordan Mason rush for 147 yards and the offense moving the ball pretty much at will.

 

2. San Francisco’s defense was playing a lot faster under new leadership

While the offensive infrastructure for this franchise has proven to be elite as they’ve navigated different phases and quarterback situations, the defense has been very consistent throughout Shanahan’s tenure, with different guys calling the shots before leaving for head-coaching opportunities, but following a common thread/belief system with everybody adding their own personal touch to it. That side of the ball took a definite hit last season under defensive coordinator Steve Wilks, who arguably saved his best for last in that Super Bowl against Kansas City, but some things that obstructed their path to getting there came back to haunt them ultimately. That’s why I understood the decision to move on from Wilks, but was very interested in the plan forward, with Nick Sorensen being elevated in-house along with bringing in former Chargers head coach Brandon Staley, following a disappointing end to his tenure there. The idea for this unit is still to squeeze down passing lanes in zone coverage, even if the emergence of Charvarius Ward has allowed them deploy for match principles, and that’s what allows these guys to just trust their eyes and fly to the ball, best showcased by Fred Warner’s omnipresence. Now, I’m interested to see what Staley might add in terms of designer coverage/pressures sprinkled in and potentially his influence on one-off gameplans when they ultimately get to these big-stage contests.

 

3. Jets fans shouldn’t just throw all hope aside

I know there’s a lot to scratch your head over for Jets fans waking up the day after their vaunted defense allowed the Niners to score on their final eight possessions following an initial three-and-out, while on offense, Breece Hall averaged just 3.4 yards per carry, Allen Lazard was their leading receiver and they had scored 13 points until a meaningless touchdown drive at the end, led by Tyrod Taylor. Defensively, this was about as bad a matchup as they’re going to face all season, with the Niners wanting to live in 21 personnel against a defense that finished second league-wide in nickel sets last year (80.6%), and they stay ahead of the chains, never allowing that D-line to tee off on Purdy. The offensive operation didn’t look very succinct for Gang Green and you had to be worried about the prospects of a re-organized offensive line against what has been one of the hungriest defensive fronts in the league, constantly attacking up the field. Aaron Rodgers wasn’t super sharp, but you saw that he’s still capable of dropping absolute dimes and early on I thought they found some nice ways to create favorable targets for Garrett Wilson. New York basically played no starters in preseason and even held some players like Rodgers out of portions of training camp. So for them to look rusty across the roster was to be expected, and this was probably the best team on their schedule.