We’re less than a week away from the NFL season being kicked off with an AFC Championship game rematch, where this time around it’s the Ravens travelling to Kansas City, as the Chiefs begin their quest to becoming first team to ever win three titles in a row.
So it’s time for me to once again put all of my predictions out there in the ether – all the major awards, playoff seedings and who I have facing each other in Super Bowl LIX. I will outline my top three finalists for MVP, Defensive Player of the Year and such, along with a few honorable mentions at the end. To determine the playoff picture, I went through all 272 individual matchups, taking into account important circumstances, such as rest (dis)advantages, how games fit within those schedule and of course personnel clashes.
I have added the full Excel file with every single team’s weekly result and final record at the very bottom, if you’re interested!
AWARDS:
MVP:
1. Josh Allen
2. Jordan Love
3. Anthony Richardson
Consistent to years past, I treat the MVP as pretty much an exclusive quarterback award and this top three represents that. Based on the surrounding pieces in Buffalo, you may argue this is actually the worst shot Josh Allen has at taking home those honors, but if you take into account the narrative here, I believe he has a strong chase to turn around voters in his favor, who were previously apprehensive to giving him the credit he deserves. Allen was actually the only player to take a first-place MVP vote off Lamar Jackson this past year. However, he’s only received six total such votes across his time in the NFL, when I’d argue he’s been the second-past QB in the league since his third season (in 2020). Josh has accounted for at least 42 touchdowns in each of those four years, but the constant discourse with him revolves around turnovers. I won’t argue that he doesn’t get himself in trouble by putting on the superman cape and trying to deliver explosive for his team, but not only did he finish just one off the top-mark in PFF’s big-time-throws last season (37) and account for the second-most first downs as a runner among QBs (57) on significantly fewer attempts than Jalen Hurts, but his turnover-worthy play rate (3.0%) was actually lower than MVP candidate Brock Purdy and basically right on par with the generally celebrated Patrick Mahomes. So if the pendulum swings the other way and he finished around ten interceptions, that could swing voters who rely heavily on the box score. In terms of what conversations around Josh could look like, the fact that Khalil Shakir is the only receiver on the roster to ever catch a pass from this quarterback is pretty notable. What they showed under Joe Brady once he took over play-calling duties last year, was a bigger commitment to running the ball, but it’ll still be Josh creating magic on third downs and avoiding sacks as he’s buying extra time off play-action, where him and Mahomes have entered a tier of their own.
Second, I have a guy who the temperature around heading into the 2024 season is much warmer, considering I expect many people to treat the Packers as a Super Bowl darkhorse. I actually look at them as more than that, since I predict them to finish as the number one seed in the NFC and a lot of that will fall on the shoulders of their quarterback Jordan Love, who accounted for 23 touchdowns compared to just one interception from week ten onwards leading up to their Divisional Round loss at San Francisco. This is a quarterback who shines with pocket-playmaking and delivers a lot of off-platform throws that’ll leave connoisseurs of the position gushing, but more importantly, he started to run Matt LaFleur’s at a highly efficient level once he settled in over the latter half of the year. Understanding what defenses were throwing at him pre-snap combined with his second-reaction ability to turn around plays where the defense has seemingly won gives him a premier combination of skills as a problem solver. As good as Love is at throwing on the move, I look at the swap of Aaron Jones to Josh Jacobs – and to some degree rookie Marshawn Lloyd – as a sign that they want to transition to some more gap schemes and giving their QB to set up deep shots, similarly to what we’ve seen in L.A. with Matt Stafford. And while they may be a headache to figure out for fantasy players, the foursome of wide receivers that Green Bay has allows them to attack the entire field and not have to force the ball to one guy, even if they all bring specific skills to succeed in certain areas. Combine that with their rookie TE trio from last year and they just need a couple of these guys from what remains the league’s youngest group of pass-catchers to step up or just not have mental mistakes in order to take the next step.
Finally, I’ll throw out the actual wildcard here and that’s a name that people in the fantasy space actually hype up regularly, but is being questioned by the general public based on the lack of time we’ve seen him on the field. That’s the biggest topic of discussion with Anthony Richardson – a lack of experience. That’s the one apprehension I have as well when projecting a monster year for the second-year man, but I truly could see a Cam Newton-like season be in store for this guy. While he does show the ability to use his eyes as a tool move defenders out of passing windows and can those with touch or force, the fact he has only started 18 career games since high school does show up in the mental fortitude to identify defensive looks and he’s not a pin-point passer in the short-to-intermediate range. Having said that, in a world where we see more pure-progression style passing due to how complex NFL defenses have become, his arm talent to be a beat late maybe, the quickness at which he resets and the dimension he provides out of structure could make him a problem to deal with long-term. Right now, the reason I believe he could put up big numbers is tied to my belief in Shane Steichen as a play-caller. Looking back at how he helped Jalen Hurts ascend to an MVP runner-up, his understanding for how to isolate defenders on RPOs and how to facilitate a run game that enhances his quarterback’s strengths in that regard gives me confidence in them being a step ahead of the competition as they unleash this attack, where they already showed signs of tapping into AR’s unique set of skills. With the addition of what I viewed as the draft’s number four WR in Adonai Mitchell and the massive improvements the Colts O-line showed across last season, I could see well over 4000 yards and 30+ total touchdowns.
Honorable mentions: Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow & Matthew Stafford
(Non-QB) Offensive Player of the Year:
1. Saquon Barkley
2. Ja’Marr Chase
3. Bijan Robinson
As I’ve stated in recent years, I do like that the OPOY award has basically become the best non-quarterback on that side of the ball, as Patrick Mahomes was the last one to take home the honors along with winning the MVP in 2018. I would prefer however if the AP would actually change the criteria to such, to pair up with what is basically the MV-QB trophy.
In this case, we go from back-to-back wide receivers to consecutive running backs. Having placed a bet on Saquon to win this award at +3300 once he decided to jump over to the Giants division rivals in the Eagles, I believe he’s in store for a huge season. We’ll have to see if Cam Jurgens can live up to being hand-picked by Jason Kelce himself as his eventual replacement and if they find a solid solution at right guard, but generally this is the O-line that paved the way for Miles Sanders racking up nearly 1300 rushing yards and double-digit touchdowns just two years ago – and now he may be RB3 on a Carolina offense that finished dead-last in points this past season. Even this past season, D’Andre Swift nearly hit 1300 scrimmage yards with a bigger involvement in the pass game, yet from a fantasy perspective was deemed an underwhelming performer based on scoring on less than a third of his 14 rushes inside the opposing five-yard line. Taking out new Eagles offensive coordinator Kellen Moore’s final season in Dallas – when it had become painfully obvious that Tony Pollard should be the lead-back – Ezekiel Elliott averaged an NFL-high 19.5 touches per game over the previous three seasons. Saquon has shown that he can handle a substantial workload, Moore has designed one of the most effective running back screen games in the past and this is guy who averaged just under 100 scrimmage yards per contest for his career, despite working behind an O-line that finished above 20th in PFF run-blocking grade once in six seasons with the Giants. One of my bold predictions coming out on Monday will be that Barkley breaks the franchise’s single-season rushing record (1607 yards) and if he just doesn’t fall down at the one-yard-line constantly like Swift did last year, I see a TD total in the mid-teens.
Looking at the current betting odds, four of the top five names are wide receivers – Tyreek Hill, Ceedee Lamb, Justin Jefferson and Chase. You may argue that Ja’Marr is fourth right now in terms of quality of player and what his path for opportunities looks like, but I think he pretty clearly has the best quarterback among these guys. We seem to forget that not only did the Bengals finish the year with a winning record but also one spot outside the top-10 in schedule-adjusted DVOA despite having a healthy Joe Burrow for just about one month. Looking at those five full weeks in which that duo was on track together, Chase hauled in 40 of 58 targets for 537 yards and five touchdowns. You may argue that pace isn’t sustainable for a full 17-game slate, but they’re actually not far off his previous pace (87.2 yards and 0.8 touchdowns from scrimmage per contest). His slot rate has steadily grown over the course of his career (23.5% last season) and I believe with the different options at the number three WR spot, I could see more avenues through which Cincy can manufacture even more touches to him. He also just posted his best marks in contested-catch rate (44.0%), missed tackles forced per reception (0.17 MTF/R) and also percentage of drops (3.8%). Moreover, on paper you’d think playing in the AFC North sets Chase up for some tough matchups, but going through the Bengals’ schedule outside of that, unless you expect Kansas City’s Trent McDuffie to travel all game, the only truly elite number one corner he’ll face in Denver’s Pat Surtain in week 17. So considering that and the fact that Cincinnati still finished second league-wide in pass-play rate (63.5%) despite the limited window of their starting QB being healthy, I think Chase could at least challenge for the triple-crown. Please keep in mind that I wrote all of this before Bengals head coach Zac Taylor created some doubt about Chase’s availability for week one.
Thirdly, I considered three running backs – Christian McCaffrey of course needs to be mentioned after just blowing away the competition in terms of the numbers he put up across the board, and Kyren Williams actually finished just ahead of his division rival in terms of rushing yards per game (95.3) when available for the Rams. Instead, I opted for the guy who finished 19th in that regard and didn’t live up to the expectations heaped upon him as the favorite for Offensive Rookie of the Year. Bijan Robinson did finish tied for tenth in scrimmage yards (1463) on a more than healthy 5.4 yards per touch, but his total didn’t reach the heights we anticipated based on limited volume. He was right on par with fellow rookie Jahmyr Gibbs on an elite Detroit offense in average rushing yards over expected (+0.39), he basically averaged a missed tackle forced on every fourth attempted (52 on 210 carries) and he gained just over nine yards after the catch on his 58 receptions. So even if he just handled 60% of Atlanta’s backfield touches (compared to 50.6% last year), he would’ve easily been second among running backs in scrimmage yards. Meanwhile, the potential for an increase in touchdowns in immense, considering this offense with competent quarterback play should rank significantly higher than 27th in EPA this season and that Bijan himself was tied for 48th last season with a miniscule three(!) carries inside the opposing five-yard line – and yet he still reached the end-zone eight times. We’ll see what exactly the Falcons run game will look like under new OC Zac Robinson, but taking what he and Raheem Morris were a part of with the Rams, their top back has typically received one of the highest opportunity shares league-wide. They’re probably looking at him as their version of early-career Todd Gurley for a team I have winning the NFC South.
Honorable mentions: Kyren Williams, Christian McCaffrey, Ceedee Lamb & Garrett Wilson
Defensive Player of the Year:
1. Chris Jones
2. Aidan Hutchinson
3. Devon Witherspoon
Before we get two these three candidates here, let me just give a quick disclaimer here on what the voters from the AP typically look at. Without saying I disagree more often than not with the actual winners, since often times the choice is fairly clear and the numbers match up, going back to 2018, there have only been three players to finish top-five in voting for DPOY who didn’t log at least 12.5 sacks – and they all had at least six interceptions. That’s why I put “all the elite edge rushers” in the honorable mentions, since Nick Bosa won it two years ago and the top four vote-getters last year were Myles Garrett, T.J. Watt, Micah Parsons and Maxx Crosby as the other names I’d put in that top-five tier.
Therefore, as tremendous as Chris Jones has been for the Chiefs, going with any true defensive tackle here not named Aaron Donald is going out on a little bit of a limb. He did finish third in voting two years ago, when he tied his previous career-high with 15.5 sacks and finished overall in QB pressures (77). You’d probably be surprised to hear that he was actually only down by two points in both those categories this past year on 138(!) fewer pass-rush snaps. Once they figured out his contract and he returned following the season-opener, he was menace yet again, which was highlighted by his performances down the stretch in the AFC Championship and the Super Bowl, single-handedly blowing up drives. KC started playing him less on early downs and the general workload, allowing him to be fresher and even more efficient on his opportunities to get to the quarterback. It’s probably unrealistic for this to be an upper-quartile unit yet again by the numbers, but the fact that they’re less experienced at corner this year could actually benefit the guys up front, as they bail out into zone coverage instead of bringing additional rushers on man-blitzes and forcing quarterbacks to release the ball quickly. Occupying the interior gaps yet then getting seven plus in coverage with Jones being one-on-one with any linemen in the league is a recipe for disaster. When he’s on the field for run plays, he racks up TFLs at a pretty high rate, with Charles Omenihu starting the year on IR, the discrepancy between him and the rest of the guys in sacks could be pretty steep and where he wins over voters is the timely-ness of his big plays, consistently showing up in fourth quarters to secure victories.
The one edge rusher I do want to outline here a little bit further is Aidan Hutchinson, coming off a big year in Detroit, where he helped them come close to winning the NFC. As you can imagine, mentioning the Packers finishing as the top seed in the conference means the Lions will have to settle for a Wildcard spot and I do have them winning 11 games against a tougher schedule. Considering the Lions matched up with the Vikings in two of the three final weeks last year when Kirk Cousins was already on IR, all six of their divisional matchups could end up being a little more high-scoring and create additional opportunities to rush the passer, similarly to what I expect the quarterbacks for the AFC South, NFC West, the Cowboys, Bucs and Bills to look like. Generally, Detroit are the ones that want to set the pace with their run game, but if this is the year we see Jameson Williams break out as a third-year receiver and they want to really activate Jahmyr Gibbs as a pass-catcher, we could see them leaning more that way as well. Hutch can absolutely affect the run game in a way that is apparent on the broadcast as well and he fills the stat sheet pretty darn well (seven passes batted down and created four takeaways) but it’s the impact he’s made as the alpha pass-rusher for this team that almost seems impossible. If you include the postseason, he was only one-upped by Nick Bosa with 121 total pressures. That’s the same as the four next-closest D-linemen on the team combined(!). So if D.J. Reader can help this group get to longer downs more regularly and teams have to provide chip-help against Marcus Davenport just a couple of times with the motor this guy plays with despite the massive snap total, he could put up huge numbers.
I did opt for more of a darkhorse candidate in the number three slot for this category. So as I mentioned before I got to the actual names, all of these top-tier edge rushers have a higher likelihood of actually getting the votes, but you better believe I put a few bucks on Witherspoon to take home the honors at 100-to-1. And really what this comes down to is my belief in what Mike Macdonald is about to form this defense into as well as the usage I expect to see for the player. Without going too much into depth again – since I did talk about Seattle’s head coach as a pivotal figure heading into the year (LINK!!) – thanks to the way Mike Mac and now-Chargers DC Jesse Minter have streamlined and simplified the language of this system, it became a lot easier to install and get all 11 guys on the same page. The Hawks have a bunch of individual pieces that translate very well for what we saw in Baltimore previously and while the physical dimensions are quite different, the versatility Spoon could provide and how he could make his impact felt from the STAR position is something I’m very excited to see. As a rookie, he split snaps pretty evenly between inside and out, being responsible for a very solid 5.4 yards per target in coverage, logging a pick-six, eight TFLs and ten QB pressures on just 30 rush opportunities. I believe we’ll see him blitzing off the slot a lot more regularly, this guy is maniac at racing up to blow up plays before they really get going and Seattle has the depth along their front to put heat on quarterbacks with exotic pressure packages, setting the table for those DBs to get their hands on even more passes, after Spoon already logged 16 PBUs last year.
Honorable mentions: Fred Warner, Kyle Hamilton, Jalen Carter & all the elite edge rushers
Offensive Rookie of the Year:
1. Caleb Williams
2. Malik Nabers
3. Bo Nix
Looking at the history of this award, running backs and especially wide receivers do have a solid shot at winning that trophy, but if Justin Jefferson and Puka Nacua combine for just 11 of 100 votes in those two record-setting years, you know that if the NFL can push a young star quarterback, that’s who’ll ultimately take home the honors. That’s the case this year with number one overall pick Caleb Williams not only in line to wow fans with his spectacular play-making ability, but also plenty of all-time franchise QB records being well in reach for a rookie even. I do have to acknowledge that this is my graded prospect at the position in the decade I’ve been doing this now, but would anybody truly be shocked if this was his stat line – completion rate just over 67%, 3850 passing yards and 31 total touchdowns? Well, that would break Chicago’s top marks for a single season in all three of those categories – not just rookies. Obviously, those are lofty expectations, but I think the final tally may not be too far off. Seeing how early OC Shane Waldron is willing to unleash Caleb was a burning question I had as part of a 32-team series a couple of months ago (LINK!!) and something that’ll determine the heights this Bears team and the quarterback himself can reach of course. However, this is not a team that you usually see pick first overall, considering they got that selection back from Carolina, when they were willing to move down the year prior. D.J. Moore, Keenan Allen and rookie Rome Odunze are certainly in the conversation for the league’s top trio, they have a solid tight-end room and D’Andre Swift is best catching passes himself. Chicago’s defense was top-five in EPA per play over the second half of last year once they traded for Montez Sweat and with the Bears winning nine games in this projection, Caleb should be the clear favorite if this group is competing for a playoff berth.
I went with a wide receiver second here, but actually also the second one off the board back in late April. Marvin Harrison Jr.’s name could easily be up here, considering in terms of guys playing on the perimeter at least, he could be dominating targets for Arizona and he’s such a pro already in the ways he can win, but the dynamism Malik Nabers brings to the table was too much for me to overlook in his set-up. I will admit that the Cardinals offense could be substantially better than the Giants’ this year, based on quarterback play alone, but at the same time, I believe the former will actually revolves more heavily around a vertically-oriented run game. Brian Daboll and Mike Kafka will try to give New York that kind of balance, but I don’t think they have that luxury and there’ll be a lot more pressure on Daniel Jones to deliver. That’s where I see this regime featuring the sixth overall pick at a very high level, putting the ball in his hands on fly sweeps, different screen variations, isolating him for slot fades, etc. Along with that, we already saw Naber show off his incredible ball-skills and ability to play bigger than his size would indicate, elevating for passes down the field – which throwing the ball up to his top playmaker what a quarterback under pressure may resort to. And then this guy is an explosive play waiting to happen, averaging 6.7 yards after the catch and forcing 30 missed tackles on 86 receptions last year at LSU. This could look like a slightly better Jaylen Waddle rookie year, with 100+ touches and 1100-1200 yards. Now it depends on if the Giants can get into scoring range often enough to get Malik those touchdowns.
Thirdly, I will stick with Bo Nix being an undervalued option for this award ever since Sean Payton seemingly hand-picked him – even if he ended up as QB6 in the draft – and I placed a wager on him the very next day at 28-to-1. I know my quarterback evaluations were fairly different to general consensus, with Caleb and Drake Maye in a tier of their own and quite a drastic drop-off to the rest of this class – and I’m not going to act like my track record with that position specifically indicates I’ll definitely be right – but this guy was my personal number three. Although people kept bringing up his low average depth of target and amount of screen passes, to me I wasn’t going to (again) judge a quarterback as heavily on the nature of their offense and saw enough from him attacking the intermediate-to-deep areas of the field along with the play-extension stuff to make me feel good about his projection to the next level. The vibes in Denver after the last couple of years with Russell Wilson under center definitely weren’t great and they did run the ball at the eighth-highest rate (44.4%) of plays in Sean Payton’s debut campaign, but I looked at Nix as a perfect fit for the way he wants to run that offense and that’s everything we’ve heard come out of there. With just under 2000 collegiate dropbacks and the individual growth he showed going from Auburn to Oregon, he’s embraced the quick-rhythm passing game Payton and Drew Brees used to shred opponents with, yet he provides an out-of-structure component where he’s manipulating rush angles and keeps his eyes up for receivers on the scramble drill, that I have hope for this offense to be better than anticipated. I’m not saying it’ll manifest itself in many actual wins, but this team somehow went 8-9 last year, with the way this defense started getting their opponents off the field.
Honorable mentions: Marvin Harrison Jr., Ladd McConkey, Drake Maye & Brian Thomas Jr.
Defensive Rookie of the Year:
1. Laiatu Latu
2. Byron Murphy II
3. Kamren Kinchens
I don’t want to look like I’m going chalk here and my third name here is very much out of left field looking at betting odds, but I do believe these top two guys were the first two defensive players off the board for a reason. Latu in particular to me already looked like an NFL edge defender at UCLA with the advancement you see in his hand usage, building a comprehensive plan for how to defeat blockers and creating favorite rush angles on secondary rush moves. The whole reason he wasn’t considered a slam-dunk prospect by most people was that his ultimate ceiling may be limited based on not being a standout athlete and concerns around his long-term health considering the concussion history he brings along. Well, not only do I believe combining his first step with the snap anticipation and the quickness of his hand-combats can’t necessarily be measured with conventional testing numbers, and I don’t see why his likelihood for injury should be significantly higher than it is for any other rookie. Latu just posted the highest pass-rush productivity of any player in the FBS (13.3), as a run defender he’s best at slipping blocks and creating negative plays – which will show up on the stat sheet – and on the limited snaps he was asked to drop into coverage, he actually received an elite PFF grade in that facet. In general, playing on a Gus Bradley defense means you’ll see quite a heavy rotation up front, with DeForest Buckner as the only guy logging over 60% of snaps along that D-line last year, but Samson Ebukam was right at that number and he unfortunately tore his Achilles at the start of training camp, effectively costing him this entire season. Four guys among that group hit eight sacks and TFLs each – so I could easily see Latu hit double-digits in both categories.
Winning either Defensive Rookie or Player of the Year is always tough playing on the interior, but if not for Jalen Carter losing some steam down the stretch last year – as did the Eagles as a team – we would’ve had our third D-tackle take home the honors since 2013. Now, looking at former Jet Sheldon Richardson and Aaron Donald as the two actual winners, you do have to be a pretty freaky player to enter that discussion, but Byron Murphy qualifies in that regard. The strength and innate feel for leverage points to own his ground in the run game is insane, you saw him put guards on skates on multiple occasions each game last year at Texas and he’s a submarine exploding low through gaps when asked to penetrate. That’s where I did see room for improvement, as he’ll need to learn how to still play a little more under control once he’s won his gap and his approach to rushing the passer is fairly simplistic at this point, with no reliable he can consistently access, but I think he’ll be put in positions to succeed right away. I’d think Mike Macdonald wanted to target this guy in the middle of the first round because he views him of his new version of Justin Madubuike, who just put together an All-Pro season in Baltimore and became one of the highest-paid defenders in the game. I’m not sure what the final numbers will look like for Murphy, but he’ll be a disruptive force for what I could see ascend to a top-ten defense this year, and along with actually racking up a solid sack total as the second man on twists, his presence as part of that turnaround from where Seattle was just a year ago will gain him plenty of credit.
As I already teased, Kam Kinchens is certainly an off-the-grid pick for this award, considering he’s around 60-to-1 at the time of me writing this. In fact, he’s actually third on his own team among rookie defenders, behind the Florida State D-line duo of Jared Verse and Braden Fiske. The first of those was absolutely a consideration for me, as he has a pretty clear path to starting alongside a front that already had a couple of exceptional rookies in Kobie Turner and Byron Young along that front. Obviously that unit will face a seemingly impossible task of recreating the production of a first-ballot Hall of Famer in Aaron Donald as a unit, but the back-end is where you have more questions on paper, with their combination of aging veterans and young guys. The first challenge for Kinchens individually will be based around earning that starting job alongside free agency addition Kam Curl. However, John Johnson III may have been an integral piece to prior iterations of L.A.’s defense, but his run-defense and coverage grades have gradually gotten worse over the last four years according to PFF’s database. So for a defense searching for game-changers, a guy who logged 11 interceptions and PBUs each over his final two years combined at Miami is very intriguing. He was at fault for gambling with the way he triggered on routes and left his feet too much as a tackler, but the reckless abandon he races up the alley vs. the run, the way he identifies route stems and then attacks the catch-point, where he high-points the ball himself and separates targets from it with big hits, made him my third-ranked safety. Even though the athletic testing didn’t match up to that, no team has been more willing to put guys like that out there with their two-high-centric approach.
Honorable mentions: Dallas Turner, Quinyon Mitchell, Jared Verse, Payton Wilson & Tyler Nubin
Comeback Player of the Year:
1. Aaron Rodgers
2. Joe Burrow
3. Sam Darnold
If you’ve followed my work over the last several years, you know I have a difficult relationship with this award, considering the lack of defined parameters for who actually fits the criteria. That’s why I disagreed with Geno Smith and also Joe Flacco as the two most previous winners, considering as well as they played, what they actually “overcame” was sitting on the bench/couch respectively. The AP did clarify things a little bit this offseason when they mentioned new guidelines to “honor a player who has demonstrated resilience in the face of adversity by overcoming illness, physical injury or other circumstances that led him to miss playing time the previous season”.
Therefore, I won’t write a separate paragraph for these three names, since they’re all pretty self-explanatory. With Rodgers and Burrow, we have a couple of MVP candidates from recent years, who missed the majority of last season and Burrow’s case was not himself for half of the time he was out there, while for Rodgers it infamously only took four offensive snaps to break the hearts of Jets fans once more. I gave the 40-year-old the nod here, since he is further along in his career and is coming off the more significant injury, playing for a New York team that desperately is looking for competence at that position. With Darnold, this is more along the lines of a player who’s struggled to hold a starting job for a while now and is looking to finally settle in at a place, where he’s set up to succeed. I spoke about this in much more detail when Sam headlined my “most pivotal figures heading into the 2024 NFL season” (LINK!!), but after escaping Adam Gase’s claws in New York, he finally gets a chance to work under a good play-caller, an excellent tackle tandem, with one of the elite wide receivers and quality ancillary pieces ion Minnesota.
Honorable mentions: Anthony Richardson, Kirk Cousins & Bryce Young
Coach of the Year:
1. Shane Steichen
2. Sean McDermott
3. Matt LaFleur
Now that we’ve finished up all the player awards, it’s time to talk about the coaches, whose individual credit is even more so based on their team’s success of course. However, especially in recent years, this trophy has not necessarily been handed to the guys running the show for the teams at the top of the table if they were among the favorites heading into the year, but rather the ones who outperformed expectations, their effect on the side of the ball they’re coming from is felt strongly and/or they’ve shown continued excellence over a couple of years.
Steichen kind of fits that latter category, where he already displayed his quality last year, when the Colts were on the brink of beating out the Texans for the AFC South crown despite having rookie phenom QB Anthony Richardson for only about a month – and he might’ve delivered that final pass on target to set up a game-winning field goal. I’ve already outlined some of the ways I expect him to simplify the game for what I predict to be an MVP candidate under center, setting the table for an offense that may equally dangerous through the air as well as on the ground, after still being average in both categories last year. If a couple of their young corners step up and Laiatu can provide pressure in a way that makes him a Defensive Rookie of the Year favorite, as I predicted him to be, they’ll be a tough team to deal with. In this scenario, Indy does actually sweep the Texans in their season series to take home the division title, which will draw the attention of AP voters following an offseason in which Houston was treated as the next big thing all along.
For Sean McDermott, I actually project the Bills to finish with an identical record (11-6) and playoff seed (second) as last year in the AFC. So for him, his case is even more narrative-driven, as we look at all the personnel losses they’ve suffered since this past season has ended. Along with the well-established trade of Stefon Diggs to the Texans, but in particular for the defensive side being coached by McDermott himself, losing three All-Pros in the secondary is rare for any team, along with Matt Milano expected to miss the majority of 2024. With Josh Allen being my choice to win MVP, he already grabs the attention for still elevating the Bills offense above their level of talent around him, but the head coach will receive a solid amount of credit as well, if he can lead the squad to a third straight AFC East title, with two other teams having almost equal probability to win it based on current betting odds. That’s especially true if the defense can build upon what they were doing over the latter half of last season, with a very different-looking back-seven, among which they’ll be bringing along several young players.
As for coach number three, he does fit the criteria of adding to his team’s win total (plus three in this projection) and guiding the way to the NFC’s number one seed. Yet, this is also an acknowledgement of the continued excellence he has provided and finally getting fully recognized for it, as Green Bay would be 58-and-32 since he took over the job. His success of course is strongly tied to quarterback Jordan Love, who I have finishing as my MVP runner-up, but in LaFleur’s case, he’s the one actually calling the shots for what could be the league’s number one offense when all is said and done. As I mentioned in my video on the “most pivotal heading into this upcoming season” (LINK!!) when talking about new defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley, the one thing you can hold against the head-man is keeping around predecessor Joe Woods for a year too long. In the next section, I will quickly hit on why I believe that unit could see a massive jump, which some of the credit will go to the guy who brought him over from Boston College. LaFleur is also one of the better in-game decision makers and could shine a few times in that area.
Honorable mentions: Nick Sirianni, Mike Macdonald, Raheem Morris & Zac Taylor
PLAYOFF PICTURE:
NFC:
1. Green Bay Packers (12-5) 
2. Los Angeles Rams (11-6) 
3. Philadelphia Eagles (11-6) 
4. Atlanta Falcons (9-8) 
5. San Francisco 49ers (11-6) 
6. Detroit Lions (11-6) 
7. Seattle Seahawks (9-8) 
As I already mentioned with Jordan Love being my MVP runner-up, I have high hopes for this Packers team. Last year, they snuck into the playoffs by winning six of their final eight regular season games and then blew out a 12-win Cowboys team at home. Their offense finished top-six in both DVOA and EPA per play despite the league’s youngest receiving corp making mistakes early on, along with a few injuries. Defensively, there’s a lot of room upwards from how they performed under their former defensive coordinator, but as I’ve outlined before – the new man in charge Jeff Hafley generally follows principles that should fit very well with the personnel at hand – as a one-gap attacking style front, with plenty of six-man rushes and cover-one behind it – which likely includes five first- and second-rounders each among their starting 11. If just a couple of those pass-catchers can take a step forward, Love stays on the trajectory he was on over the latter half of last season and the defense plays up to their talent, sky’s the limit for this group. In this scenario, they actually drop week 18 due to sitting starters with the top seed secured already.
Based on my predictions, the battle for the NFC West is a lot more interesting than the betting odds would suggest. In fact, not only do the 9-8 Seahawks sneak in as the seven-seed despite losing week 18 at the Rams, but it actually took me putting every game into playoffpredictors.com (LINK!!) to figure out that L.A. earned the number two seed over the 49ers based on strength of victory, since in-division and -conference records were identical. The Rams offense finished last season as a top-ten offense by any metric you want to look even though Matt Stafford missed a couple of games, Kyren Williams missed about a month and Cooper Kupp was never really quite himself. Now they beefed up the interior even further and added an insurance policy at RB to make their duo-centric run game even more bludgeoning, which in turn makes what Stafford can do off play-action that much more dangerous. On defense, they’re losing an all-time great in Aaron Donald and their coordinator Raheem Morris, but they’ve rebuilt the D-line with young standouts over the past two years and added some stabilizing veterans on the back-end.
The Eagles need to settle for third thanks to losing at the Rams in week 12. Their fans will be happy to hear that this season won’t include a drastic drop-off over the latter half of the year however. While we’ll still see how good a couple of spots on their interior O-line can be, Saquon Barkley presents a dimension at running back this team simply hasn’t had yet, paired with a healthy Jalen Hurts as a constant threat to pull the ball. That’s along with Jahan Dotson recently being added to give Philly arguably the league’s premier WR trio. Defensively, they admitted that they needed to add more youth and play-making to their secondary, with two top-40 draft picks and the return of C.J. Gardner-Johnson, who last led the NFL in interceptions as a member of this unit, before his one-year stint in Detroit. Most importantly however, they brought in established commodities at both coordinator spots, who can actually provide them schematic advantages on a weekly basis, rather than being highly predictable and having no answers to counter their opponents – vs. the blitz on offense and how opponents isolated vulnerable defenders in coverage.
We finish off our division-winners with yet another 9-8 squad coming out of the NFC South. I did have the Falcons hitting double-digits at some point and think that’s very much in the cards for them, but that’s how it ultimately played out. There’s certainly a lot to like with this Atlanta team, that added a perennial top-10-to-12 quarterback to take advantage of the amount of high draft picks along their front and skill-position group. Along with that, waiting out the opportunity to add former All-Pros in Matt Judon and Justin Simmons to address their two biggest positions of need/question marks, and bringing in Jimmy Lake paired with Raheem Morris and some of their unorthodox ways of approaching defense, should at least make this opportunistic group that’ll be difficult to prepare for. So while I have them hosting a playoff game and Bijan Robinson receiving votes for Offensive Player of the Year, the reason I couldn’t quite add a couple more Ws is the weirdness of their quarterback situation and how it may linger with the way they’ve handled it so far.
I don’t have the 49ers winning the West for a third year in a row, but still earning the top Wildcard spot at 11 wins with a head-to-head win over the Lions in week 17. The reason I don’t have them as the class of the conference this season is based on the emotional drain losing another fourth-quarter lead to the Chiefs in a Super Bowl takes on them and the fact that their 21-day rest disadvantage across the season compared to their opponents is the worst in the league. Now, as exhausting as the Brandon Aiyuk has been, assuming there’s no last-minute trade, they’re bringing back all 11 offensive starters who just finished in a league of their own when it comes to DVOA and EPA per play. There are some more questions on defense, with linebacker/energizer bunny Dre Greenlaw probably missing all of the regular season and the always underrated Arik Armstead now out of the picture. However, they did bring in reinforcements at all three levels of that unit and while Nick Sorensen was elevated in-house, I do believe former Chargers head coach Brandon Staley can add some new ideas and wrinkles for one-off gameplans.
Going down by one win from their 12-5 tally last year can be seen as a slight step back for Detroit, but to me it’s more so a function of how strong the NFC North is as a whole as well as having a first-place schedule, which earns them standalone matchups with the Cowboys, Bucs and Bills. There’s no reason to believe the Lions can’t be an elite offense yet again – if you go by 12 or 21 personnel, they’re bringing back all but one starter and Kevin Zeitler is as good a replacement as they could’ve found at guard, former first-round receiver Jameson Williams looks primed for a breakout season and most importantly, OC Ben Johnson decided to return for one more year. Defensively, we’ll need to see if either Marcus Davenport or one of the guys drafted recently can step up as a secondary rush threat, but with D.J. Reader next to Alim McNeill, their interior D-line is going to be almost impossible to run on and they invested significant resources into the back-end, to actually make DC Aaron Glenn’s man-heavy system work.
Finally, I ended up with the Seahawks grabbing the final berth in NFC at 9-8. Many people seem to forget that they literally finished with that same record last year, considering how little they’re being discussed. Generally, the talent throughout the roster in Seattle is being underrated and could be a hand-in-glove situations on both sides of the ball, with how they want to operate. Geno Smith will be bombing the ball down the field in Ryan Grubb’s space-oriented aerial attack, while Mike Macdonald has a lot of pieces with similar skill-sets to recreate what made them a top-two defense in Baltimore by any metric you want to look at. What pushed them ahead of the two other teams who just missed the cut was the late addition of Connor Williams, who was a top-five center in the league last season before getting hurt. However, this battle for the final Wildcard spot was insanely close by the way, as the Seahawks got the nod for winning in Chicago to give them the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Bears. Yet, if I were to give the Cowboys a win at Washington (who I have finishing 4-13), they’d jump both teams mentioned based on a better record vs. common opponents compared to Chicago, since Seattle has one less win within the conference.
Just missed the cut: Chicago Bears (9-8) & Dallas Cowboys (8-9)
AFC:
1. Kansas City Chiefs (12-5) 
2. Buffalo Bills (11-6) 
3. Cincinnati Bengals (11-6) 
4. Indianapolis Colts (10-7) 
5. Baltimore Ravens (11-6) 
6. Houston Texans (10-7) 
7. New York Jets (10-7) 
To the shock of none, I have the Chiefs finishing as the AFC’s number one seed for the second time in the last four seasons, even though it takes them winning at Denver – a place where they suffered their worst loss of 2023 – in the regular season finale to earn that spot. As you can see, I believe this is actually the year we see an extremely closely contested AFC with nine legit teams who I could see winning a playoff game. While they should swing back from their worst season with Patrick Mahomes at the helm, I don’t believe KC’s offense is going to reach the heights it has done in the past, and by trading away standout cornerback J’Larius Sneed, I don’t think you can bank on a finish in the league’s upper quartile. However, while their passing game may not be as hyper-efficient, they could be the best rushing unit of Mahomes era and they’ve brought in pass-catchers to make that area more explosive again. The defense will be relying on a couple of guys to step up in larger roles, but as long as they have Steve Spagnuolo, they’ll be able to transform that unit as need be, coming off a year in which they finished second in both pressure rate and dropback success rate.
A lot more surprising for some people may be the fact I have Buffalo not only winning the AFC East for the fifth straight year, but also repeating as the conference’s two-seed – which it didn’t look like they would even make the playoffs midway through this past season. I believed in them turning it around back then and although I wrote an extensive piece about their struggles in high-leverage postseason moments and predicting the massive roster overhaul that ensued – I believe in them figuring it out this season around Josh Allen. While the loss of Stefon Diggs is the headline here, there’s a chance this less volume-heavy approach to their receiving corp works out better for them, while I feel as good about Buffalo’s O-line as I’ve ever done during their current run heading into a season and rookie Ray Davis could give them a dynamic one-two punch in the backfield. Defensively, they’ll to recreate the united football IQ of their departing veteran safety tandem and it sucks to see Matt Milano miss the majority of yet another season, but following their 5-5 start, this was the seventh-ranked unit in EPA per play.
The battle for the North is a tightly contested one once again, with all four teams winning at least eight games and the Bengals tied with the Ravens at 11-6, but getting that home playoff game thanks to a better record vs. common opponents. There’s certainly some risk attached to Cincinnati dethroning a team that just won two more games than any other AFC team with reigning MVP at quarterback. However, they do have a guy themselves tossing the ball around who I believe will work on his campaign for that honor. With Tee Higgins back on the franchise tag, Ja’Marr Chase playing for a new contract, a highly talented Jermaine Burton as a third-round pick from Alabama and a more diverse tight-end room, this could be the toughest receiving corp to deal with yet, and then I like the thunder-and-lightning quality of their backfield duo behind that big O-line. Where they truly need to bounce back is their defense however, especially with question marks around their interior run-stopping ability. Having said that, Dax Hill has looked awesome transitioning to corner, they’ve recreated a veteran safety tandem to run that unit through and if Lou Anarumo can get opponents to designated dropback settings, he can wreak havoc.
The biggest curveball for the general football public here may be the Colts outdueling the Texans for the South, after Houston have been the biggest darlings this offseason – and understandably so. Yet, the term “duel” becomes quite literal in this case, as I have Indy sweeping the season series, considering they comfortable won their first meeting last year with a healthy Anthony Richardson and were a slightly better-placed swing pass by Gardner Minshew away from snatching the division crown. I’ve regularly discussed AR as a potential breakout star and outlined him as an MVP candidate here. With my belief in Shane Steichen as a play-caller, the option run game dynamic in concert with Jonathan Taylor and my high hopes for what was my WR4 in the draft Adonai Mitchell, this offense could truly fly. Their defense consistently has been average in terms of different metrics under DC Gus Bradley, but now there’s potential for significant growth among their corner group and a pro-ready threat rushing off the edge in Laiatu Latu (my pick for Defensive Rookie of the Year) for an already very deep front.
Although the Ravens will need to enter the postseason tournament with the top Wildcard berth and go on the road to get to their ultimate goal, they may end up being as dangerous as ever once they reach that point. Considering they have to travel to the back-to-back champs in Kansas City to open the season and have so many names stepping into more prominent roles on the O-line and defense overall, an early adjustment period is to be expected, considering they face the top three teams here along with heading to Dallas across their first five games. With that in mind, this is the second year of growing this passing game under coordinator Todd Monken, Derrick Henry is the deluxe version of what they’ve had recently at running back and franchise has a history of figuring things out when reshuffling the front-five, which will now be dedicating this year to their recently departed position coach Joe D’Alessandris. We’ll see a lot of new faces on defense, with Chris Orr elevated to DC, second-year linebacker Trenton Simpson stepping in for Patrick Queen and some young corners getting more reps, but the principles of this systems are being carried over from a unit that just finished top two in DVOA and EPA per play.
Settling for the six-seed may be looked at as a step down for Texans fans, but they do so with the exact same record, facing the entire NFC North and AFC East each, along with three other division winners (Baltimore, at Kansas City and at Baltimore). So I actually believe they’ll be a better team going through a much tougher slate, considering the increased cumulative quality of the AFC South itself, even if their record may ultimately not show it. This offense strikes fear into opposing play-callers when they come out in three-wide receiver sets, they added a more stable presence at running back with Joe Mixon, and most importantly, this O-line just set a new record for most “adjusted games lost to injury” last year since Aaron Schatz started tracking this in 2001. Meanwhile, their defense has added multiple impact veterans up front and invested a couple of day-two draft picks into the back-end. I believe we’ll actually see a more efficient Houston offense with Bobby Slowik embracing more early-down dropbacks, but with both Denico Autry and Christian Harris missing at least the first month, along with a certain acclimation period with the personnel additions signaling a move to more single-high structures, there are at least some questions defensively.
Grabbing the final Wildcard berth by beating the division rival Dolphins at home in a revenge spot from last year to reach double-digits in the win column are the Jets. They’re probably the most volatile team, as we saw injuries to Aaron Rodgers and multiple guys up front completely derail their 2023 campaign. Shockingly, they still managed to win seven games despite finishing dead-last in DVOA, success rate and EPA per play on offense. That just tells you the potential for this group if they’re even just average in that regard, with a four-time MVP under center, both Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall having showcased All-Pro potential and major reinforcements to their O-line. Of course the baseline for their success is set by a defense that just cracked the top-three in all three categories I just mentioned despite how little help they receive from their counterparts. If they can get Haason Reddick to show up or trade him for a comparable asset up front, they’re my favorites for being the top unit in the NFL. Probably no other team relies more on their star players to stay healthy, but if that’s the case, nobody will want to see them come January.
Just missed the cut: Cleveland Browns (9-8) & Miami Dolphins (9-8)
Wildcard Round:
NFC:
2. Los Angeles Rams OVER 7. Seattle Seahawks
3. Philadelphia Eagles OVER 6. Detroit Lions
5. San Francisco 49ers OVER 4. Atlanta Falcons
AFC:
2. Buffalo Bills OVER 7. New York Jets
6. Houston Texans OVER 3. Cincinnati Bengals
5. Baltimore Ravens OVER 4. Indianapolis Colts
Divisional Round:
NFC:
1. Green Bay Packers OVER 5. San Francisco 49ers
2. Los Angeles Rams OVER 3. Philadelphia Eagles
AFC:
1. Kansas City Chiefs OVER 6. Houston Texans
5. Baltimore Ravens OVER 2. Buffalo Bills
Conference Championships:
1. Green Bay Packers OVER 2. Los Angeles Rams
5. Baltimore Ravens OVER 1. Kansas City Chiefs
Green Bay Packers vs. Baltimore Ravens
I believe how these playoff seedings and who actually advances looks like generally, elite quarterbacks dictate what we’ll see here. That’s how we end up with my predicted MVP runner-up Jordan Love facing the reigning winner Lamar Jackson on the game’s biggest stage.
However, in this scenario, these two sides take very different path to get to that point. For the Packers, they have the NFC’s top seed already locked up heading into the season finale and similarly to the Ravens last year, will need to make a decision if/how much they play their starters in that contest, considering they’ll otherwise have two full weeks off before the competitors have to come to their place in order to make it to the Super Bowl. First, they finish the job this time around against a 49ers team, against whom Jordan Love had his worst moment from last year, throwing that ill-advised pick across his body when they were down by a field goal at Levi’s Stadium. Then the actual NFC West champion Rams come to the Frozen Tundra, where their ground-and-pound-heavy approach for a warm weather team should set them up well generally, but Love and company just have a little too much for a defense that still has a few question marks.
On the other end of the table, the Ravens actually have to go on the road and beat three straight teams seeded higher than them. First, we’ll get an epic clash between what I believe will be the most dangerous dual-threat quarterbacks in the league when they go to Indianapolis. After that, they head up to Buffalo, where Josh Allen enters that conversation, as we see the two most recent MVP winners face off. Just like Anthony Richardson, I believe that Baltimore defense can force one mistake too much off those guys and secure them the win. And finally, the Ravens have to travel to Kansas City – a place in which they haven’t won since they actually started their Super Bowl run there in 2012 – to face their personal Goliath. They do overcome that ultimate challenge thanks to a couple of special plays by Lamar sprinkled in, but more so thanks to Derrick Henry grinding out tough yards and their defense creating stops. The Chiefs scored just three points over the final 55 minutes of this past AFC title game at Baltimore and OC Todd Monken doesn’t allow KC’s defensive looks to scare him out of running the ball.
I believe we’ll get to see some awesome off-platform and altered arm-angle deliveries by these two quarterbacks, but once we get to this stage, both defenses will be at their best, with new coordinators on both sides having brought along the pieces to excel. So this matchup could revolve for on winning field position and who ends up with the better net outcome between big-time plays and turnovers. Since Matt LaFleur has showcased that he can incorporate a couple more gameplan-specific designs with extra time to prepare and the Ravens are not as deep among their receivers to actually take advantage of having them in isolated situations, I’ll give a slight nod to Green Bay here.
Green Bay Packers 23:20 Baltimore Ravens
2024 NFL schedule – filled out
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