Now six weeks into the NFL season, I thought it was time to examine the quarterback landscape and rank all 32 starters (no backups included). In order to paint the picture better, I grouped them into tiers, which can include between two and six names. I’ll discuss each of these guys’ biggest strengths and weaknesses, add different statistics but then also add the needed context, based on watching the tape.
For this exercise, I’m trying to extrapolate the individual player from his respective team and envision a roster made up from perfectly average pieces, without the benefit of elite play-makers or -callers to take pressure off them. Of course, certain types of signal-callers can maximize what the system they’re in gives them, while others may not execute on as consistent a level, but can elevate what’s around them.
So the basis of this will always make it an imperfect problem to solve, but we’ll try to get as close as we can!
The demigods:
1. Patrick Mahomes
Yes, Mahomes still sits at the top of my rankings. It hasn’t always been pretty for the Chiefs passing game and Pat was outplayed head-to-head by Zach Wilson in what nearly turned into a loss back in week three, but otherwise he’s been able to overcome imperfect circumstances and their only loss in the season-opener came without KC’s top two players other than number 15. And even in that contest, if Kadarius Toney doesn’t drop one of multiple passes on the ball, to where it’s pick-sixed, they may the only undefeated team left. Blowing out the Bears back in week three certainly helps, but Mahomes has been able to lead the Chiefs offense to top-five rankings in yards per play (5.7), third-down conversion rate (48.1%) and percentage of drives of drives resulting in points (46.8%). That’s despite having Travis Kelce for basically one full game, along with a highly flawed group of receivers, who have dropped an NFL-high 15 passes. Taking two sacks each of the previous two weeks, he’s now closer to the rest of the pack, but Mahomes still allows the lowest sack-percentage (2.6%) in the league, despite being pressured at the fifth-highest rate among starters (27.3%). His ability to manipulate rush angles, extend plays and anticipate the development of secondary/tertiary routes stands alone – especially when he can take advantage of that mind-meld with Kelce in the lineup. What is funny however – he’s basically the exact median of big-time throw vs. turnover-worthy play rate.
2. Josh Allen
I remain to be of the opinion that Allen is the ultimate superweapon at the quarterback position. In terms of being able to launch rockets 60+ yards down the field whilst being flat-footed, rifling throws that bend the structure of coverages, shake off potential sacks, run away from pursuit and then go through a linebacker in order to get to the first-down marker, nobody quite brings that kind of complete package. With that being said, if you take out week one at the Jets, when he kind of forced that “Superman mode”, his ability to win with his mind and accuracy has been highly impressive. This is not something I typically value too highly, but the fact that Allen currently leads the NFL with a 71.7% completion percentage should make some people re-consider what type of passer they consider him to be. Buffalo has thankfully started to be able to run against advantageous looks if opponents keep both safeties deep to good enough effect and Allen hasn’t rushed 5+ times himself since week one. However, if you give him a chance to attack down the field, he will punish you in a hurry with freaking ropes. Plus, as we saw even in a much less explosive showing Sunday Night against the Giants, he can create secondary plays that break the back of the defense as well as anybody. He now leads the NFL in total EPA added generated (+70.1) and he’s quietly only had three turnover-worthy plays since week one, according to PFF.
The one-man shows:
3. Lamar Jackson
I’m not sure if there’s a more underappreciated player in the league right than Lamar. I was answering some comments on my team-based power rankings a couple of weeks ago, where somebody brought up his raw passing numbers (208.8 yards per game, five TDs vs. three INTs) and then immediately asked me what “my excuse was” following the Steelers game. Seeing someone criticize THAT guy, after his receivers literally dropped three touchdowns and the most passes overall since 2017 – later earning the highest PFF passing grade of the week – perfectly encapsulates where we are with the box-score watching public. We just watched the Browns defense absolutely dominant what had been an unstoppable 49ers offense. Lamar made like five plays when he faced that unit which made those guys look foolish. Then against the Steelers and Titans these last two weeks, he was moving his offense down the field at will, before OC Todd Monken refused to let him finish off those drives by throwing in goal-to-go situations. Lamar is currently fourth in success rate per dropback (52.5%) and he’s tied for sixth among all players (included running backs) in first downs picked up on the ground (23). If he starts getting some help in terms those skill-position guys, he’s an MVP candidate and the Ravens are a Super Bowl threat.
4. Justin Herbert
As frustrated as I am about the conversations around Lamar’s numbers, I’m actually concerned about if we’ll ever see a Justin Herbert-led team live up to their potential. Getting Kellen Moore to take over play-calling duties from Joe Lombardi has certainly been a lot more fun, seeing them push the ball down the field and creating YAC thanks to less static concepts, but his running backs have averaged just 2.5 yards per carry since week one, the defense has not come through late in game and the decision-making by the head coach has been a nightmare. Herbert is a well-calibrated machine as a thrower, who can hit any spot on the field with the appropriate touch and/or velocity on the ball. Unfortunately, he just had arguably the worst performance of his career, if you take out the stretch he had really struggling through the rib injury last year. He missed Keenan Allen streaking open a couple of times this past Monday night and there were a couple of uncharacteristically poor decisions against the Cowboys, included just his second INT of the season. With that being said, he has thrown lasers out there all year long, ranking third in “on-target rate” of his passes (83.0%) and his ability to avoid getting sacked by using subtle movement around the pocket is outstanding. Plus, after the rib bothered him for most of 2022, he’s been a lot more active as a runner, picking up a lot of crucial first downs when given a lane.
5. Trevor Lawrence
There’s really a theme with this tier of guys, as once again Lawrence’s numbers should be better than where they are. Unfortunately, there’s no official tracking of this, but I feel confident about saying he leads the league in would-be touchdown throws, where his receivers weren’t able to get both feet in bounds. Overall, the Jaguars offense has been plagued with untimely drops, turnovers in the red-zone and those missed TD opportunities. However, I believe their quarterback has exceptional over the last three weeks against the Falcons, Bills and Colts. If you take out end-of-half situations (only on one of those did they even throw the ball), 15 of their 31 possessions added in points and three ended in a (strip-)sack. And if you want to blame T-Law for holding onto the ball too long a couple of times, all three of those came on third or fourth down instead of forcing balls into traffic, while generally only Tua has a lower time to throw so far this season (2.46 seconds). While having Calvin Ridley in some isolated situations for key downs has helped, three Jaguars pass-catchers have been targeted at least 44 times and Trevor has started using his backs as more than just a last resort. So he’s utilizing his play-makers to take pressure off himself, yet still has a 4.9% big-time throw rate (eighth-highest in the league) according to PFF.
6. Matthew Stafford
I don’t think there’s been a quarterback I’ve enjoyed watching more so far this year than Stafford. The man has been an absolute flame-thrower. He can dice up static zone coverages with underneath throws as well as lead his receivers down the field towards open grass, but most impressive has been the insane amount tight-window balls on the intermediate level he’s drilled. Along with that, his pocket movement has been superb, being able to navigate around multiple pressure points, quickly re-set and rip throws to any spot on the field, regularly dropping down the arm-angle when needed. Sean McVay certainly deserves a lot of credit, the O-line has done a much better job than I anticipated of protecting their 35-year-old signal-caller coming off a season in which he got banged around pretty good, and they’ve had young skill-position players step up around him. However, he’s only had Cooper Kupp for the last two weeks and his numbers almost feel detached from reality, when it comes to a couple of interceptions based on bad luck in terms of how the ball bounced and the fact they’ve relied on running back Kyren Williams converting at the goal-line. What matters more – his big-time throw (7.6% – easily first) vs. turnover-worthy play rate (1.9% – third-lowest), while leading the league in completed air yards total (1040) and per attempt (7.5). He’s been absolutely slinging it all around the yard, without giving defenders many chances to make plays on the ball.
The great system guys:
7. Tua Tagovailoa
What I hate so much about the entire conversation around Tua is that it’s all black and white – either people say he’s the best QB in the league or they call him an injury-prone, physically unimpressive system guy. His numbers truly are insane. Tua currently is number one across the board in passing yards (1876), TDs (14), passer rating (114.1), yards per attempt (9.5), and percentage of passes past first down marker (48.7%), despite having the lowest time to throw (2.37 seconds). He does fit this bucket because what makes him so great is how exceptionally well he executes Mike McDaniel’s offense. Looking at how consistently he gets to the right answers based on the defensive picture is tremendous. However, what he’s added this season is being able to re-adjust as what the opposing team shows him changes post-snap and a few off-schedule plays being sprinkled in. Last season, a lot of what Miami did revolved around hitting windows they created with the way they spaced the field. This year Tua is actually hitting guys on the run a lot more regularly, as he averages a full yard more AFTER the catch than any other QB in the league (7.0 yards). Where nuance needs to be added is the gravity that insane speed has and how incredibly McDaniel has been at setting the table with creative play-designs. I’m not saying all the guys ahead of Tua could recreate what he’s doing, but on an average team, they can do more with less around them.
8. Jared Goff
We need to stop acting like Goff is this skinny white guy with a weak arm – the man has been slinging it all season long. He leads the league with 29 completions of 20+ yards (four more than anybody else) and is tied for an NFL-high 4.7 completed air yards per pass attempt, yet has the lowest turnover-worthy play rate (1.4%), according to PFF. When you look at that offense, it’s all about controlling the pace of games with the run game, hitting big shots off play-action and executing situationally. Goff has that feathery touch to lead his receivers away from trailing defenders, he does a great job of stopping them in windows against zone coverage and protecting them from big hits with the appropriate ball-placement. Offensive coordinator Ben Johnson deserves a ton of credit for the way he creates schematic advantages through multiple avenues, but the patience of his quarterback to wait out concepts and hang in the pocket, after working through his progressions has been a big ingredient to their success. This past Sunday, the Lions averaged just 1.8 yards per rush and picked up just two first downs on the ground, yet they only went three-and-out once and controlled the ball for 36.5 minutes. Goff currently is number two in the NFL in third-down conversion rate as a passer (48.1%), he’s fifth in EPA per play and PFF has him as the highest-graded QB overall (90.4).
9. Jalen Hurts
I received plenty of pushback for having Hurts as only my 56th-best overall player heading into the 2023 season, but I think looking at the step back this Eagles passing attack has taken and all the metrics supporting that, it was a very fair ranking. Brian Johnson has done a good job of taking over offensive coordinator duties from Shane Steichen, but he hasn’t presented as many simplistic reads via RPOs (Hurts led the league with 122 such) and single-key reads for his quarterbacks, to put the ball into the hands of their pass-catchers in space, but rather he’s leaning into more of a straight rushing attack and letting this dominant O-line go to work. Hurts is one of the best at dropping deep balls into the bucket of his receivers streaking down the sideline, when he gets A.J. Brown or DeVonta Smith isolated on the outside. We’ve seen him hit quite a few of those yet again, but defensive coordinators have given him plenty of trouble with blitz-heavy gameplans or more intricate coverage rotations. So as we get to designated situations, his ability to process information and solve problems isn’t on the level of the guys ahead of him and he’s holding onto the ball too long (3.06 seconds time to throw is just a hundredth of a second off the highest mark in the league), also lending itself to the third-most turnover-worthy plays (10). He just threw away the Jets game with that late pick basically. Where he does kill defenses however is when he fights through swinging arms and powers ahead for conversions on crucial third downs.
10. Geno Smith
After nearly a decade of borderline irrelevance, Smith comfortably established himself as a top-ten QB in the league this past season – and he hasn’t done anything this year to take me off that. And this has been one of the most curious developments I can remember, because it’s not like he made a few crazy plays or got lucky with contested passes, to where this isn’t replicable – he’s doing a lot of high-level quarterback-y things. His head looks like a water sprinkler with the way he’s working through progressions, the feel for and subtle movement inside the pocket has been very impressive and he’s been one of the most fun watches due to his aggressive decision-making, when he sees opportunities to attack down the field. Big plays have been not as frequent this year, as Geno has faced fewer opportunities advantageous looks for those, which is why they’ve gone from dead-last to top-ten in rushing success rate (41.7%). However, the Hawks QB is second to only Josh Allen in completion percentage over expected (7.4%) and he was only intercepted once prior to last Sunday. I thought for the majority of that game in Cincinnati, he showed a great understanding for the time he had to get the ball out when the defense blitzed him and the ball was on the money for the most part. He had that one bad interception, where he thought he had rookie JSN on a wheel-route, where the corner ended up inside in a two-high look, but nickel Mike Hilton smartly carried it, while Geno had his back in the flats for easy yardage. On the second one, D.K. Metcalf simply quit on the route.
The question marks:
11. Joe Burrow
In my full season predictions, I mentioned that I think the Bengals would have a slow start to the year and then after going 10-7 get hot during the playoffs, making it all the way to the Super Bowl. One of the main reasons for that was that the calf injury would bother their quarterback, but I did not envision a world where by the numbers, it would be hard to justify having Burrow just outside the top-ten. Right now, he’s 31st in the league with just eight completions of 20+ yards and tied for dead-last among starters with 5.3 yards per pass attempt, as well as intended air yards on average (6.3 yards). Part of that is connected to having to get the ball early (tied for second-lowest time to throw at 2.46 seconds), since he doesn’t fully trust his protection or his ability to push off in order to create velocity on the ball. Typically, if you blitz Burrow, he will kill you by hitting one of those talented receivers on the money quickly and letting them create explosive plays. Right now, you see balls slightly behind the target, not being able to drive it to either sideline and therefore taking longer (arcs) to get there. It just hasn’t quite been the type of pin-point accuracy we’re used from him. With that being said, he has looked a lot more confident in his leg, when you watch the mobility return, as he’s extending plays inside the pocket and if he’s back to being able to step into throws properly, he may quickly ascend to the second tier.
12. Dak Prescott
The three-interception performance he had at San Francisco a couple of weeks ago – and it was a really bad showing for the QB – severely altered his individual numbers and the perception among the public for Dak. If anything, after leading the NFL with 15 interceptions last year, I would actually argue he’s become way too conservative with turning down opportunities to attack the deeper areas of the field, but also the designs of passing concepts lending itself to getting the ball out quicker and shorter, with bottom-ten marks in time to throw (2.63 seconds) and intended air yards per attempt (7.0 yards). Steven Ruiz wrote an excellent piece about how the Cowboys took a problem that would’ve fixed itself – considering some poor interception luck last season – and turning it into a much bigger one. This has become a quick game-oriented and vanilla West Coast passing offense, with the 23rd-ranked passing rate on early downs despite being dead-average in terms of efficiency metrics in that regard. And yet, Dak has converted a league-best 49.0% of third downs throwing the ball, to help this offense move the ball – they just haven’t been able to finish those drives in the end-zone, in part due to a lack of creativity in the red-zone (26th in TD percentage inside the opposing 20). Along with that, only Patrick Mahomes has a better “on-target percentage” on his throws (84.0%) and he has now risen to seventh in EPA per play (0.125). What I liked seeing Monday night was him using his legs when given opportunities to pick up good yardage.
13. Kirk Cousins
Kirk is another one of those guys, who there seems to be no room for an honest conversation about, because some people will defend him based on consistently putting up top-ten numbers among quarterbacks, while others refer to some of the poor decisions and willingness to throw the ball short of the sticks. On one hand, you can certainly argue the Vikings’ league-high 69.9% pass play rate lends itself to bigger production, but equally the lack of big plays on the ground puts more pressure on the QB. Kirk is tied with Tua Tagovailoa for a league-high 14 touchdowns versus four interceptions (one less than Tua), while only Washington’s Sam Howell been either sacked or hit more often than Kirk (48 times). So the guy is certainly tough and he can deliver the ball down the field. With that being said, when the defense “wins” against Kevin O’Connell’s play-designs, he’s not going to give you really anything out of structure. To me Kirk is represents the new version of what Around the NFL used to refer to as the “Dalton line”, meaning a quarterback right on the fringe of being good enough to be paid like a franchise signal-caller, despite how he hamstrings your ability to be a competitive roster around him due to the financial implications. I don’t want to turn this into a grander point about the state of the Vikings organization and how they should operate going forward, but this certainly feels like a roster with a lot of flexibility once we get to the offseason and they by likelihood let Kirk walk, but he may win them just too many games to be a serious player for one of the top quarterbacks in the 2024 draft, to make the center-piece of what could be a sudden overhaul.
The young studs:
14. C.J. Stroud
I really want to put Stroud even higher. He’s been so un-rookie-like all season and I anticipate he’ll flirt with the top-ten as we get to the end of it. This was more about showing respect/having proof of context on a larger scale for the names ahead of him and how the tiers made sense. His ability to take in information, problem-solve and deliver bullseye-throws has been absolutely phenomenal. This isn’t just somebody anticipating when a route will break and hitting that target as he turns his head around. Stroud identifies coverage rotations, is able to move second-level defenders and communicate to his receivers with the football at a highly impressive level already. Plus, his ability to extend and deliver accurately on the move has been a definite plus, after evaluators questioned that area of his game. Only Jared Goff has completed more passes of 20+ yards this season (25) and Stroud is currently fourth in yards per attempt (7.8). He did finally throw his first career interception this past Sunday against the Saints, when he just trusted a linebacker to widen in his drop based what they were running, but that puts him at one per 212 attempted passes so far. That gives him the eighth-best passer rating (96.4) league-wide and probably most impressive – he has elevated the Texans offense from dead-last in 2022 to 11th in EPA per play this year, despite averaging just 3.2 yards per carry as a team (third-fewest).
15. Brock Purdy
Here’s another example of a classic black-or-white conversation. On one hand you had people prior to last week’s game saying on national television that Purdy was the front-runner for league MVP, while others immediately pounced on the opportunity of him having the worst performance of his young career and calling him a system guy, who wouldn’t be anything without Kyle Shanahan and those play-makers. His numbers are obviously propped up by those surrounding circumstances and you can question how well he would fare if he landed on a lesser team – which is why he’s here in the middle of the pack rather than in that elite tier at the top. However, while the physical attributes and arm talent is below NFL-standards, the consistency with which the ball comes out of his hands, the eye-discipline in order to open windows, his suddenness moving in and out of the pocket and then having enough aggressiveness throwing outside the numbers, in order for defenses to not be able to box them in, are all excellent. So take the statistics with a grain of salt, but ten TDs compared to only one INT through the air doesn’t come out of nowhere, while he ranks behind only Tua with 8.6 yards per attempt. Even following a catastrophic showing all-around by this 49ers offense after their first drive in Cleveland, Purdy is still number one in EPA per play (0.371) among QBs, after there had been a significant gap between him and Tua as the next name up, and he’s also on top of the ranks in terms of QBR (76.9).
The guys on the decline:
16. Russell Wilson
Right off the bat, I would argue that until this past Thursday night at Kansas City, Wilson was actually on a path of bouncing back from a year ago, when he would’ve been in my bottom-ten. However, generally as we look at his career arc, the Denver experience certainly hasn’t been at all what anybody expected. After years of people asking the Seahawks to “let Russ cook”, he burnt the kitchen in the Mile High city and they brought in Sean Payton to clean up the mess. The 12th-year QB has issues seeing the entire field, reading out concepts and finding easy throws, if they didn’t give him chances to loft his patented moonballs to isolated receivers down the sideline. While he has certainly been sharper with getting the ball out on time and used his mobility a lot more effectively, picking up crucial yardage, he’s still not receiving a lot of freebies from that coaching staff, where it feels like this offensive scheme is stuck in the mid-2010s and the Joe Lombardi effect manifests itself in what’s tied for the 22nd-highest average intended air yards for Russ (7.6 yards). He is fourth in the NFL with 12 touchdown passes and has put up the seventh-highest passer rating this season (99.0), while having to compensate for the league’s worst defense, but he’s not playing at a level where he can or should be asked to elevate the situation he’s in.
17. Derek Carr
This is kind of a depressing tier, as all of these guys – other than the final one – had extended stretches of playing at a top-ten level in the landscape of NFL signal-callers. Carr dropped off from that level last year already, when the Raiders ultimately decided they were ready to move from him and let him walk in free agency. I certainly had my concerns about if New Orleans made the right move of locking him up to a four-year, 150-million-dollar contract, because I didn’t necessarily trust the ancillary pass-catchers around second-year man Chris Olave and thought this defense may be on the decline purely based on age, but they have played well enough around the QB to be the favorites in the NFC South – the guy pulling the trigger has just not nearly lived up to the billing. And to be fair to Carr, he has been dealing with a sprained AC joint for half the year, but he has deferred to his outlets too often instead of allowing plays to develop, he has not exacerbated the issues of second-year left tackle Trevor Penning and he simply hasn’t delivered accurately enough on the intermediate level. Only Green Bay’s Jordan Love actually has a higher intended air yards per attempt mark (9.4 yards). However, I’d argue that number is a lie, based on just watching the final four passes in their loss to the Texans for example, where none of them were even catchable but all 20+ yards down the field. I saw Alvin Kamara catch 13 passes for 33 yards in a game against the Bucs a couple of weeks ago. Carr can cash in on his receivers creating separation vertically when ultimately being one-on-one, but otherwise, it’s been way too checkdown-centric.
18. Ryan Tannehill
Coming into the season, while understanding the circumstances around Tannehill and the fact the Titans had invested day two draft capital into project quarterbacks, I expected he would ultimately be put on the bench more so based on the team not being competitive enough overall, rather than his individual play. Well, right off the bat, he threw three bad picks in the season-opener against the Saints – who we just discussed. That has continued to be a trend for him, without the consistent big plays to balance things out. Tannehill is currently tied with Daniel Jones for a league-low 1.3% touchdown rate of his pass attempts, while being third in interception rate (3.8%). It hasn’t been one or two factors going into this, but rather a lack of understanding for the correct leverage, the ball-placement being a little bit off and simply trying to force balls down the field. Of course, his collection of pass-catchers has not really helped him out at all, as 11-year veteran DeAndre Hopkins has been the only reliable target and he simply doesn’t have the juice to consistently find separation from talented defenders in man-coverage. So without a completely overhauled offensive line from a couple of a years ago, the lack of a consistent rushing attack spear-headed by Derrick Henry or a YAC monster like A.J. Brown (now in Philadelphia) to turn those simple completions over the middle off play-action into explosives, there’s not much to hang your hat on. However, Tannehill has made matters worse, by holding onto the ball too long and putting it in harm’s way, which now he may miss extended time with an injury to the same ankle which cost him the final month of last season.
19. Deshaun Watson
Unlike the majority of names on this list, we have only seen three games by Deshaun Watson due to dealing with an injury to his throwing shoulder, who was replaced by rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson putting up three points against the Ravens and former XFL journeyman P.J. Walker, who did just enough and got a little lucky, while his defense shut down the 49ers in a 19-17 win. Understandably, Deshaun wasn’t sharp at all, when he made his return to the NFL and debut with the Browns over the latter half of last season, following an (self-inflicted) one-and-a-half-year absence. It’s still not as easy topic to separate based on your opinions of the human, but for the purpose of the exercise, I’m trying to isolate the football player – and that guy hasn’t even come close to living up to the status of the player still with the highest amount of fully guaranteed money on a contract. His decision-making in a progression-style passing attack has been too slow, his accuracy has been shaky and his tendency of inviting pressure by holding onto the ball has been even more apparent, behind a much better O-line than compared to his days in Houston. With that in mind, I thought he looked by far his best in his most recent showing against the Titans. He still has the arm strength to drive throws towards the sideline from either hash, he has the sturdy base to shake off would-be sacks and his rushing has been a definite factor, whether as a default to pick up first downs or on some designed runs. His numbers could also certainly be better, as he’s currently tied with Patrick Mahomes in terms of drop rate by his receivers (7.0%).
20. Daniel Jones
It has been a ROUGH season for Giants fans. After winning a playoff game at Minnesota last year, they have mostly looked like a non-competitive NFL franchise. While their quarterback hasn’t nearly been the only problem, he certainly hasn’t helped much either. Jones has only accounted for three touchdowns compared to six interceptions so far, averaging just under six yards per attempt (31st league-wide) and a league-worst passer rating of 71.7. Not having Saquon Barkley for three of Jones’ five starts has been palpable, none of his receivers has consistently created separation when defenses have manned up against them and the protection has been an utter catastrophe. DJ has been the only QB with a pressure rate of over 30% (31.3%). So the fact that Washington’s Sam Howell has actually taken six more sacks than Jones (28) speaks to his ability to avoid even more negative plays than there could be, by just taking off for positive yardage instead. When he has been able to get the ball out, he’s ranked fourth in terms of “on-target rate” of his passes (80.6%), although he’s throwing it three yards short of the sticks on average, which is dead-last in the league. The one counter-point to that is what Tyrod Taylor was just able to do against the Bills on Sunday night, when he delivered just one fewer “big-time throws” (three vs. four) than DJ on the season and had half the pressure-to-sack conversion rate (15.8%). Therefore, in this situation, not being able to defeat tight coverage with pin-point accuracy and the default being to take off himself, has not something where this guy can deliver more than what’s on the table for him.
The weird ones:
21. Justin Fields
At the moment I’m writing this, we don’t have all the information on Fields’ dislocated thumb and how much he will miss. So for the purpose of this exercise, I will treat him as the Bears starter still, even though we’ll most likely see Divison-II Shepherd legend Tyson Bagent in his place for a couple of weeks. After a highly underwhelming rookie showing, the former 11th overall pick turned himself into one of the most exciting one-man shows as a runner last year and then this season, people were ready to completely write him off, before suddenly turning things around in weeks four and five. Early in the season, I thought his entire process starting from getting to the top his drop, needing to see receivers come open and a elongated release made him too late on everything. Over the latter two showings – and granted this came against the 32nd-ranked Broncos and 26th-ranked Commanders defense in terms of EPA per play – I thought he was throwing the ball with much better anticipation and accuracy. I don’t think he’s shown the mental fortitude to solve more complex defensive pictures as a passer or worker past number two in his progressions with regularity, while the rate of which he’s taken sacks so far in his career has simply been unacceptable. In 2022, he was sacked almost 1.5 times as often in relation to his dropbacks (14.7%) as any other QB in the league and if not for Sam Howell and Daniel Jones being on pace for record-setting amounts of sacks and pressures respectively, he’d be at the top yet again (12.9%). Where I do see promise is that relationship with D.J. Moore and Luke Getsy specifically designing opportunities to feature the number one receiver. Currently, only Tua has a higher TD percentage of his passing attempts (6.8%) than Fields.
22. Joshua Dobbs
One of the biggest surprises on this list (in a positive sense) – simply based on the fact that he wasn’t even expected to start until getting traded to Arizona and then still not being named the guy until that first game week – has been Dobbs. Since being drafted back in 2018, he had only attempted ten total regular season passes for the Steelers, before jumping in for an overwhelmed Malik Willis in Tennessee for the final two weeks of last season. He did have some nice moments with the Titans, but with our expectations of the Cardinals overall, I did not think Dobbs may look like a competent NFL quarterback – but he has. I feel like the ball comes out of his hand with more pop than it ever has, he’s played well on time in OC Drew Petzing offense and not been afraid to push the ball vertically or target tight windows over the middle. I don’t believe he has the most flexible arm to release from different slots or great consistency in ball-placement with just a 55.7% on-target rate of his passes (31st in the league) and when he does try to create outside the pocket, it’s rarely looking for opportunities to find his receivers. I will say however – he’s really tough to put a hand on, even when it looks a pass-rusher is about to get a piece of him, and he’s been one of the most oddly effective scramblers I can remember watching. Right now, he leads the league with a 14.5(!)-yard average on his 11 attempts. Plus, when he hasn’t been in largely negative game-script situations like these past two weeks, he’s generally taken good care of the ball (all three INTs over those two contests).
23. Sam Howell
If you like watching gamers at the quarterback position, who isn’t shy at all of pushing the envelope, but the results can be anywhere from spectacular to catastrophic, I’d tell you to put on some Washington games. Howell can run super-hot and has the requisite arm talent to deliver to any spot on the field. We saw that in valiant comeback efforts against the Broncos and Eagles (losing the latter in overtime). He ranks fourth in completion percentage over expected (5.6%) and he’s recorded the fourth-best passer rating among all starters in the second half of games (98.7). With that being said, he’s also willing to throw the ball up for grabs to get that motor revving and he can be an absolute drive-killer with his tendency of allowing himself to get put on the turf. Sam has been sacked six more times than any other quarterback in the league (34) despite “only” being ninth in pressure rate (24.2%) on the season. You see him actively runs himself into quite a few of those take-downs and he doesn’t understand or utilize his throw-away options accordingly, instead just deciding to move when his mental clock tells him to – rarely leading to positive results. Where it can be beneficial is being able to show off his mobility to move the sticks with his legs and I guess he does deserve some credit at least for despite getting swallowed up routinely (13.7% of dropbacks), he has only fumbled twice so far.
24. Baker Mayfield
So I get that a lot of people will bring up that Baker had led his team to a better record than Howell (3-2 vs. 2-4) and that most traditional and advanced metrics would favor the Bucs signal-caller. However, the way I looked at Howell coming into the league and even still today is as a more athletic version of Baker, who also has slightly better arm talent, when he can’t fully engage the rest of his body during his motion. He certainly has performed better than I expected however and has established himself as a name worthy of being a starter, at least until his team has figured out a long-term solution. Right now, he ranks eighth league-wide in QBR (62.9) and his passer rating is the best among all starters in the fourth quarter (104.5). So he definitely has that gamer mentality, where he will find an opportunity to hit his receivers working their way open in the low red-zone or take off for a key third down late. However, while he’s always been a master at creating velocity on the ball with torque, when he has to rely more on his arm to alter the trajectory of throws or there’s no space to step into them, he loses some control. Playing behind an O-line that has allowed him to be pressured at the fourth-lowest rate in the league (12.2%) has definitely helped mask that deficiency. Last week, when Tampa really needed him to deliver against a strong Detroit defense, he over-/underthrew three potential chunk plays, where his receivers clearly had a couple of steps.
25. Jordan Love
Through the first three weeks of the NFL season, Love looked like a less individually excellent, but more moldable version of what Aaron Rodgers has been in Matt LaFleur’s offensive system. He was taken the lay-ups off the bootleg game, showed great trust in his play-caller to attack open grass in accordance to the timing of route patterns and was hitting vertical shots off play-action when they were called up. However, as opposing defenses started putting the game more so in the quarterback’s hands, by calling a lot more tight man-coverage that he’d need to defeat with ball-placement, having better intel on some of the free-access plays Green Bay likes to rely upon and keeping him inside the pocket, in particular with backside edge defenders staying home on boots, the third-year signal-caller has really struggled. While he does average half an additional intended air yard per pass attempt (9.9 yards) than any other QB in the league, Love also has easily the lowest completion percentage (55.6%) among NFL starters right now and is completing a league-worst 7.1% below what’s expected. You watch him compared to what Rodgers had done for years with the Packers, he has a lot of the same mannerisms and is capable of some of the off-platform throws, but he – understandably – doesn’t nearly identify coverages pre- or post-snap at the same level. When he has been given room to scamper, only Arizona’s Josh Dobbs has averaged more yards per scramble than Love (12.7 yards) though.
26. Bryce Young
Panthers fans are in a dark place right now. They’re rooting for the only win-less team left this season, neither side of the ball has lived up to expectations and their number one overall pick at quarterback can’t nearly make the game look as easy as he did for the majority of his career at Alabama. We all knew Bryce would look small on an NFL field and that he doesn’t have top-tier arm strength, but he’s not been able to get away from the rush at nearly the same rate as he did in college, he hasn’t been able to create explosive plays and he’s also made some uncharacteristic mistakes, like trying to loft the ball over a sinking corner in cover-two. He’s tied for dead-last among starters with 5.3 yards per pass attempt and has the worst QBR league-wide (33.1). He leads the NFL with 16 throw-aways and has the lowest “aggressiveness” mark by Next Gen Stats (8.2%). That all leads to him being 30th in EPA per play (-0.167). Now with ALL of that out of the way, I can not stress enough how bad the support system around him has been. The offensive line has taken a significant step backwards from what we saw over the latter half of last season, the play-designs and gameplans have lacked creativity and soundness in a way I didn’t anticipate from this experienced staff and 33-year-old Adam Thielen has been the only reliable pass-catcher on this unit. And yet, we’ve seen growth over the last couple of weeks by Young, finding quicker solutions, maneuvering inside the pocket more efficiently and placing the ball to where his guys can make plays for him – which they haven’t always cashed in on. The fact that C.J. Stroud and Anthony Richardson as the two other QBs selected in the top-four have looked as great certainly doesn’t help with public perception.
The replacements:
27. Zach Wilson
That brings us to our bottom tier, which isn’t fully made up of actual fill-in for starters, but despite being the number two overall pick three years ago, Wilson found himself as the backup coming into the year, after the Jets made the big trade for Aaron Rodgers. Since the veteran’s season lasted all but four offensive snaps, I’ll consider Zach a six-game starter. He faced a really tough slate to start the year – vs. Buffalo, @ Dallas, vs. New England, vs. Kansas City, @ Denver and vs. Philadelphia. Four of those I’d say firmly are top-ten teams in the league and yet the Jets sit at 3-3 heading into their bye week – something they would’ve probably taken WITH Rodgers at the helm. I’ve been accused of being a Wilson apologist in the past – less so based on his play but one immature comment of his last year being overblown and the staff benching him despite the team finding ways to win during a tough stretch – and you won’t find me calling wins a QB stat, but I do think this guy deserves some credit here. The numbers will tell you Zach is once again dead-last in EPA per play for the season (-0.208) and success rate per dropback (36.9%). However, he’s been much better at identifying where the ball is supposed to go based on pre-snap looks, we’ve really seen the zip on those playing on schedule more regularly and he’s been more willing to use his legs to do stuff that isn’t related to chaos mode. Where Wilson and the Jets offense overall has to be better is converting a league-low 30.0% of third down pass attempts into first downs. Breece Hall and the run game kicking back into the gear, to complement that defense, is the path for this team to be in games every week.
28. Desmond Ridder
I understand that a lot of people have been clowning on Desmond Ridder, especially after a three-interception performance this past Sunday against the Commanders, and would like to see him at the very bottom of the list, but watching the tape tells a different story than most of the public seeing Red-Zone switch over to another pick he threw. This past game perfectly encapsulates that, because if you take those three plays, I thought he actually outplayed Sam Howell on the other pretty clearly. And then we have to analyze those plays in question – two I’d put on rookie RB Bijan Robinson, once completely throwing off the route spacing and leading a defender to the ball by evidently not knowing where he was supposed to go and on the second one, he allowed the linebacker flexed out wide with him to make a great play undercutting a slant route, where he should have stayed flat. The one in the end-zone I’m not going to remove blame on him and his worst tendency is making bad plays even worse, but he forced the center to snap the ball in order to avoid back-to-back procedural delay of game penalties and just threw it up for grabs. As good a play-designer as Arthur Smith is, he puts too much pressure on his QB to handle those game-management aspects. Now, Ridder does lead the NFL with 15 turnover-worthy plays and he needs to be more consistent overall – but we have to contextualize those moments. In the mean-time, he has quietly led an NFL-best three game-winning drives so far this season. Sunday against the Commanders was the only time he didn’t come through at the end of a one-possession contest and I just got into how he wasn’t set up optimally to take them home.
29. Jimmy Garoppolo
I’ve talked about a bunch of quarterbacks I really enjoy watching so far. Jimmy G, now removed from Kyle Shanahan’s offensive system in San Francisco, is at the very bottom of the list. And this is certainly related to some personal bias, seeing him blindly chuck the ball over the middle when everybody watching on their TV sees a defender sitting there, along with the unwillingness to push the ball towards the sideline, but this guy will make you pull your hair out at times. Jimmy has once again had much better circumstances than people realize – he’s been pressured on a league-low 11.2% of his dropbacks (despite the eighth-highest time to throw), he’s only had one of his passes dropped (fewest in the league) and yet he has the lowest big-time throw rate among all starters (1.3%), according to PFF. He’s currently eighth in dropback success rate (51.1%), but looking at the circumstances he’s in compared to the big plays he creates, he’s actually produced very little in relation to the rest of the league. He’s in a league of his own when it comes to the percentage of his passes resulting in interceptions (5.4%) and receivers average an NFL-low 4.0 yards after the catch off his completions. That’s when he doesn’t lead them into massive car-crash collisions with hospital balls over the middle of the field, like we saw again last week with Davante Adams.
30. Gardner Minshew
Do I feel confident that on a 17-game sample Minshew would be the third-worst quarterback in the NFL? Not really, but based on the information we have from this season, I couldn’t really put him much higher. A few years ago, Minshew Mania was really fun in Jacksonville and he had some good showing as the backup in Philly, but this season he’s benefitted from jumping in with the team in positive game-script and then this past season, his former team kind of embarrassed him. He threw three really bad picks – and there could’ve easily been a couple more – where the ball seemed to get away from him and his lack of strength definitely showed up. So while he’s definitely a gamer, who can jump into the action and make a couple of gutsy plays, he doesn’t have the athletic ability or arm talent to consistently challenge defenses if the primary read isn’t there for him. He’s currently the only QB with 80+ pass attempts with an “on-target rate” of less than 50% on the season (49.3%) and tied for the third-most turnover-worthy plays (10) on the 31st-most dropbacks, despite being pressured at the second-lowest rate in the league (11.3%). With Anthony Richardson reportedly out for the season most likely, we’ll see a lot more of Minshew and him having a chance to right the ship, but he’ll need to take better care of the ball, as this rushing attack is finally kicking into gear the last couple of weeks.
31. Kenny Pickett
Right now, if this was a ranking of offensive coordinators, I would probably have Steelers play-caller Matt Canada at number 32 and therefore putting Pickett second-to-last among quarterbacks may seem a bit harsh, but I don’t have any proof of concept that he’d do significantly better if he received more help through that avenue. From a clean pocket, we’ve seen Pickett be generally accurate, he provides plus mobility and he’s mostly come through in the clutch for a Steelers team that prides itself on ugly game-scripts that come down to putting together one late drive to win it. With that being said, this offense hasn’t been able to put together any drives with consistency, Pickett immediately bails the pocket and drops his eyes when he sees pressure and I can’t give him a ton of credit for hitting George Pickens streaking free down the sideline after beating his man off the line on a go-ball for the game-winning score. The only quarterbacks who have accounted for fewer first downs through the air (39) so far are guys who have appeared in less than five games. That’s despite his receivers averaging the seventh-highest yards after the catch (5.6). Now, I will say that the O-line has been an issue yet again, without a reliable run game and only Daniel Jones has been pressured at a higher rate so far (29.4%). However, Panthers rookie Bryce Young is the only starter to have logged a worse QBR so far this season (33.5) and Pickett is the only quarterback with a negative mark in the EPA + CPOE (completion percentage over expected) composite metric so far (-0.003).
32. Mac Jones
We’ve reached the bottom of the barrel and I’m not particularly confident in this selection, but I feel like I didn’t have any other choice. The reason I don’t love putting him here is that the circumstances in New England has been terrible over the last one-and-a-half years and that we saw him look like a long-term starter as a rookie, with competency around him. Like, even if I thought Trey Lance was the target all along three years when they traded up to third overall in that draft, the 49ers offense might be one of the best in the league right now anyway if they picked Mac. However, he’s actively made a bad Patriots offense even worse so far this season. Jones ranks 31st in EPA per play (-0.178), only Atlanta’s Desmond Ridder has more turnover-worthy plays for the year (14) and after quietly being one of the more effective deep-ball throwers prior to it, he ranks 30th in the league with just eight completions of 20+ yards. We’ve seen him actively rebel against the offenses of Matt Patricia and Bill O’Brien now, throwing multiple short passes late across the field against the Cowboys, daring their corners to ultimately pick-six those (which they did), and he’s thrown some really poor balls outside the pocket, even when he’s had opening. He did that one awesome throw into the bucket down the sideline for DeVante Parker this past Sunday against the Raiders, which the wide receiver wrongly claimed was just off his finger-tips, while he’s once again relied upon despite being dead-last in separation per route. But I can’t excuse what Mac has done since week one.
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