We’re one month into the NFL season and it’s time for our first power rankings over the year. While there are teams we feel more or less confident about in our opinions on them, generally I believe we have a good understanding for who the main contenders in both conferences are and which ten plus/minus two teams have a legit shot at lifting up that Lombardi trophy in February. At the same time, there may be about the same amount of groups I feel like don’t have real playoff aspirations. That’s why the middle of the pack may end up being so interesting, to see who still rises of falls.
As always, these are rankings, not standings. I did not want to simply list teams by record and then shuffle them around a bit, but rather actually evaluate how good these 32 franchises are right now. I will incorporate a lot of numbers to support my case, but also try to add the needed context to them, based on what I see on film. That means even if we have two teams with the same record and one of them beat the other head-to-head, that doesn’t automatically determine their order.
Let’s get into the list:
1. San Francisco 49ers (4-0) 
If I’m being honest, this was a pretty easy choice. Only the Eagles and 49ers are still undefeated. Philly has won by a touchdown on average, San Francisco by an average of 16.8 points and if not for the Rams kicking a meaningless field goal against them with zeroes on the clock, they would’ve won each matchup by multiple scores. They’re obviously the only team in the top-three in terms of points scored and allowed. Their offense ranks behind only the Dolphins in EPA per play (0.236) and Brock Purdy is currently on pace for the greatest EPA per play season of any quarterback in NFL history (0.456). When they have their full arsenal of skill-position weaponry with Kyle Shanahan continuing to expand the playbook, they’re nearly unstoppable. Any of their guys can create explosives, but they can also grind down their opponents, as we just saw with 30(!) first downs gained on just 53 plays vs. the Cardinals, and they’ve only turned the ball over once. Their defense has not quite been as dominant statistically, but their big free agency addition Javon Hargrave has been the most effective interior pass-rusher in the league, second-year edge defender Drake Jackson has certainly taken a step, Isaiah Oliver’s physicality and match-coverage skills have provided an upgrade at nickel and the numbers look better than what they actually would be if there wasn’t as much garbage time in their games. They have a huge matchup at home vs. the Cowboys coming up Sunday night however.
2. Buffalo Bills (3-1) 
This has arguably been the most effective team in the league, when you consider they’re currently third in EPA per play on offense (0.203) and fourth in that regard on defense (-0.192). I didn’t want to use the term “complete” because I still don’t think they’re a great rushing team, but they can take advantage of favorable looks when defenses keep two safeties deep. Josh Allen currently towers over the rest of the league in terms of completion percentage above expected (9.7%), making some of the most ludicrous throws you’ll see every week look effortless. And while Stefon Diggs is currently putting on a clinic routing up defenders to be that high-volume number one, I believe there is room and reason to believe those ancillary pass-catchers will become more prominent going forward. Their defense has been highly impressive statistically, ranking fourth in EPA per play, being tied for a league-high 16 sacks and leading the pack with 11 takeaways. However, more importantly, they just held to Miami to season-lows in yards per play, points and basically all the advanced metrics. Losing Tre’Davious White for the season with an Achilles tear really sucks – and I feel sick to my stomach for him – but their institutional understanding for how to make everything on the back-end feel compressed by the way they squeeze down patterns in zone coverage is tremendous, their D-line has taken another big step collectively and hold on, Von Miller might be back next week.
3. Philadelphia Eagles (4-0) 
I’m sure a lot of people will argue Philly should be number two, since they’re the only other undefeated team left, but it just hasn’t nearly felt as easy for them so far as it did last year. They won three of their games by six points or less to the Patriots, Vikings and Commanders this past Sunday, when they needed overtime, who are a combined 4-and-8. Having a perfect record with the 10th-ranked offense and the 19th-ranked defense a month into the season is almost unheard of. The Eagles aren’t the same kind of efficient passing attacks they were in 2022, when they got a ton of freebies in the RPO game, but they’ve gained a league-high 43 first downs on the ground (second with 661 rushing yards) and then they take their shots down the field off that, as Jalen Hurts currently is second in terms of average intended air yards (9.8), according to Next Gen Stats. So far it has mostly felt like whenever they’ve really wanted to grind people down with the run game, they’ve been able to and D’Andre Swift has given them some more juice in that regard, while DeVonta Smith and now also A.J. Brown are back to dunking on defenders. I am concerned with the defense however, because while their duo of Georgia first-round D-tackles have acclimated themselves wonderfully, they’re banged up in the secondary and they’ve now allowed Mac Jones, Kirk Cousins and Sam Howell to have the best days of their respective seasons.
4. Kansas City Chiefs (3-1) 
I thought about putting the Chiefs at number three, because their only loss came by one point in the season-opener versus the Lions, when they were missing Travis Kelce and Chris Jones, while having a freak pick-six off the hands of Kadarius Toney run back against them. Yet, we can also spin this the other way, where things may look very different if one Jaguars receiver manages to keep both feet in bounds for touchdowns on three or four occasions and someone jumps on the snap off Zach Wilson’s knee or the referees call things a little less in their favor against the Jets, and this team is at best .500, ‘ve with one of their wins being a blowout over the toothless Bears. As per usual, the smarter choice is to believe KC will figure things out. Especially, since the part that needs to improve the most is the passing game and even after an uncommonly tumultuous performance, betting against Patrick Mahomes isn’t very smart. He just refuses to get sacked by the way, as his percentage of dropbacks ending with him on the ground (1.3%) is less than half the rate of any other QB, despite both his tackles having really struggled, with Jawaan Taylor leading all NFL players in penalties. Defensively, they’re currently fifth in EPA per play (-0.129) and third in opposing success rate (38.8%). Sure, they just allowed Zach Wilson to arguably have the best performance of his career, but they’ve stopped the run very well and Steve Spagnuolo has that versatile backfield tunes in, which is why they’re top-ten in third-down (33.3%) and red-zone TD percentage (45.5%).
5. Dallas Cowboys (3-1) 
The loss at Arizona was really weird. They were missing a couple of starters, made a couple of uncommon mistakes and probably just didn’t take their opponents very seriously. Outside of that game, they’ve outscored the two New York teams and the Patriots by a combined score of 108-to-13, handing Bill Belichick the worst loss of his coaching career. The defense has been absolutely dominant, ranking behind only the Browns in EPA per play (-0.269). Outside of the Cardinals game, the Cowboys D has allowed just one other touchdown, while having scored three such themselves, plus another one on a blocked field goal. They’ve held opposing quarterbacks to a league-worst passer rating of 55.6, only the Bills have sacked those guys at a higher rate of dropbacks (11.5%) and they’re the only team with single-digit tackles missed (eight). So even when they allow quarterbacks to get the ball out, either there’s somebody who gets their hands on it themselves or they’re ready to shut down whoever comes up with it quickly. Meanwhile, other than that one bad end-zone interception he threw vs. Arizona, Dak hasn’t turned the ball over otherwise and he’s seventh in EPA per play (0.186) league-wide. The O-line has provided them a great baseline to work with in both facets and they lead the NFL in third-down percentage (51.6%). The only real blemish on their resume is the red-zone efficiency, having converted just 36.8% of those trips into touchdowns (30th in the league). Maybe above all though, they’re number one in what I coined the HRF statistic a couple of years ago, starting their drives a full nine yards further ahead on average than their opponents (32.8- vs. 23.8-yard line).
6. Miami Dolphins (3-1) 
After watching them lose 48-20 at Buffalo this past Sunday, I was wondering how far I may end up dropping the Dolphins, but then I realized that not only are there maybe three defenses in the league that could do to them what the Bills laid out there, but after a trip to the lowly Giants this Sunday, they should have their starting center and left tackle back – which were huge factors in their defeat. Even following their game against the Bills, where they only scored six more points following consecutive touchdown drives to start the day, Miami easily leads the league with 8.0 yards per play – 1.7 yards clear of any other team in the league – and they’ve got some separation in terms of the number two team in EPA per play (0.293). Tua is still first in yards per attempt (9.6) despite the shortest time to throw among all NFL quarterbacks (2.37 seconds) and this is mostly based on a couple of long house-calls against the Broncos, but Devon Achane currently has twice as many average rushing yards over expected than any other running back with 20+ carries right now (6.39 yards). This doesn’t feel like what we saw from December onwards last year in terms of teams “figuring out” how to slow down this explosive attack. With that being said, we need to see this defense become more disruptive, as currently no other team has allowed opposing offenses to reach a higher success rate (51.3%).
7. Baltimore Ravens (3-1) 
As Robert Mays put it so appropriately on Sunday afternoon “Lamar Jackson made five plays in [the Browns] game that would simply make me quit the profession if I were a defensive coordinator”. Baltimore is fifth in offensive success rate so far (47.6%) and that’s despite Lamar throwing the ball 2.6 yards short of the sticks on average (ahead of only Bryce Young and Daniel Jones among starters). And while the rushing attack has yet to really pop, they do move the sticks efficiently on the ground, as only the Eagles have gained more rushing first downs (37). Plus, when they do move the ball, they put it in the paint, as they lead the league with an 80.0% touchdown rate in the red-zone. That’s with room upwards, when their receiving corp is fully healthy and they figure out the optimal allocation of this backfield. Meanwhile, they’ve been able to overcome several injuries on defense so far. They’re currently top-three in EPA per play (-0.217) and success rate against (37.5%), as well as tied for first with the Browns in yards per play (3.8 YPP), Only allowed opponents to convert 30% of red-zone trips in touchdowns. They may not have a standout pass-rusher, but they have bunch of guys that can collapse the pocket, as they’re bringing a bunch of simulated pressures and change the picture post-snap to force QBs to hold onto the field, plus off that they’ve been able to create open lanes for their linebackers and Kyle Hamilton as part of the rush,
8. Detroit Lions (3-1) 
While I had the Lions winning the NFC North with a 10-7 record in my full season predictions. that was in part due to what I thought was a weak division and I expected some negative regression from what they looked like over the second half of last season. However, they actually look like a much more complete team now. Their offense currently ranks behind only the Dolphins and 49ers in net yards per pass attempt (7.3) and Jared Goff is tied for second with 18 passes of 20+ yards. And while the rushing attack isn’t overly efficient due to the heavy volume, particularly in positive game-script, they have the O-line to win up front in key situations and a play-caller in Ben Johnson who keeps defenses guessing, with the diversity of run schemes and little wrinkles he adds on a weekly basis in the pass game. The bigger story here however has been their defense, which currently ranks top-ten in EPA per play (-0.090) and success rate against (41.6%). The two main reasons for their turnaround are a much more capable pass-rush, ranking second to only the Browns with a 27.7% pressure rate, and after getting pounded on the ground for stretches last season, right now they’re tied with the Browns for the lowest success rate allowed vs. the run (30.0%) and second in yards per attempt (3.0). Aidan Hutchinson is becoming a force off the edge, rookie slot defender Brian Branch has made his presence felt on numerous occasions and they’ve been much more consistent with making the correct reads and providing help in coverage on the second level.
9. Seattle Seahawks (3-1) 
This is another one of those 3-1 teams that started the season with a head-scratcher, losing by three scores to the Rams in the opener. However, they’ve run the table since then, beating the Lions in overtime before taking scare of the Panthers and Giants by 10 and 21 respectively. Geno Smith has continued to look in full control, they’ve been able to withstand the loss of both starting tackles for a stretch now and their run game isn’t as hit-or-miss anymore, as Kenneth Walker ranks top-five in missed tackles forced (???) but also rushing success rate (54.6%). I still don’t really know what to make of this defense. They’ve massively improved their run defense, even if the competition hasn’t been great in that regard, ranking third in yards allowed per rush (3.2). However, their 11-sack performance at New York overshadows the fact that they had just five coming into that day. They’ll have to hope this wakes up their pass-rush powered by a lot of young guys, but other opponents will have more answers to take advantage of the lesser resources in coverage when they bring extra pressure. Even with the thrashing of the Giants on Monday night, the Seahawks are second-to-worst in third down rate defensively (52.4%) – they’re just closer to 30 than 32 now – and prior to the Devon Witherspoon pick-six, they had yet to keep an opposing team out of the paint when they were able to get into the red-zone (7-of-8). They do need to play a cleaner brand of football though, as only the Cardinals have given away more free yardage via penalty (291) so far.
10. Cleveland Browns (2-2) 
Obviously, losing 28-3 at home to the Ravens, when you could’ve had sole possession of the AFC North really stinks – and so did giving away that week two game at Pittsburgh to an inferior opponent, because you allowed them to start and end the day with defensive touchdowns. However, with the landscape of that division outside of Baltimore and the baseline this defense gives them, there’s still plenty of hope for optimism. Even after Lamar Jackson pulled out like four or five Houdini tricks that should make opponents want to quit, Cleveland is number one in EPA per play defensively (-0.279), after finishing each of the prior three weeks with the top mark in that regard league-wide, along easily the lowest success rate from an offensive perspective against them (30.1%). Nobody has created more tackles for loss (27), pressured the quarterback at a higher rate (27.9%) or held opponents to a lower third-down rate (22.6%). Myles Garrett has been game-wrecker lining up all over the place, setting the table for the rest of that front, they have the best trio of corners in the league and they’re getting major contributions from guys like Grant Delpit. On the flipside, they’re tied for only 29th in offensive EPA per play (-0.179), despite being top-five in rushing yards. There’s reason for hope, because while Deshaun Watson is inviting too much pressure by holding onto the ball and his accuracy has been shaky, he did look his best when last seen. But you can’t be that anemic offensively and be tied for the second-most giveaways across the league (ten) if you want to be a true player in the AFC.
11. Jacksonville Jaguars (2-2) 
This Jaguars team has probably been equally surprising in a positive and negative sense. Coming into the year, I thought they were set up to be a top-five offense with a defense capable of making plays whilst being in positive game-script situations, in an AFC South they clearly stood above. Well, not only has the division been a lot better than expected, with all four teams being 2-2 right now, but my expectations have been flipped for Jacksonville’s two sides of the ball. The Trevor Lawrence-Calvin Ridley connection got off to a blazing-hot start, but has since been much more sporadic, rather than the go-to whenever opponents overplay the “concept side” with Ridley on the backside. Only Tua has a lower time to throw across the NFL than Trevor (2.44 seconds), he has just seven completions of 20+ yards week one and while Travis Etienne has been a lot more efficient on a snap-to-snap basis, he has just one carry of 12+ yards since week one himself. Plus, then they’re 30th in third-down rate (31.4%). As we flip things around, their defense right now is top-seven in EPA per play (-0.100) and success rate against (40.4%), while having taking the ball away nine times. We need to see more from the rest of that pass rush, but their third in rushing success rate against (31.8%) and Josh Allen has played like a star, as I outlined prior to his three-sack plus game-sealing strip performance this past Sunday against the Falcons in London.
12. Los Angeles Chargers (2-2) 
Is there a team in the NFL that makes you jump out of your chair more often for positive as well as negative reasons than the Chargers? They could easily be 4-0 but also 0-4 right now. So being .500 probably is appropriated. Justin Herbert is playing out of his mind right now and while the offense without Mike Williams is looking for guys to actually cash them in – preferably first-round pick Quentin Johnston – it’s great to see him lead the NFL in passes attempted of 20+ air yards (23). Under new OC Kellen Moore, that unit is fifth in offensive EPA per play (0.100) and they’ve only turned the ball over twice. They haven’t been effective running the ball since a shocking 200-yard performance vs. Miami’s soft box looks, but their pass concepts lend themselves to a lot more yardage created by their pass-catcher, as they’re currently top-ten in YAC/reception (5.0 yards). Unfortunately, the defense has been an abomination masked a little bit by facing the Raiders with a day-three rookie QB last week, who Khalil Mack sacked six(!) times after producing just three sacks and nine QB hits over the prior 18 games in L.A. Only the Broncos and Bears have allowed more yards per play than the Bolts (5.9 YPP) and for a defense built on taking explosive plays, they lead the league in that regard with 31 such allowed (20+ yards). That combined with Brandon Staley’s schizophrenic fourth-down tendencies and telling defenders to go down instead of trying to score a touchdown in a one-score game is rough to watch.
13. Green Bay Packers (2-2) 
The Jordan Love hype train certainly took a hit last Thursday night. He already came into the day with what would’ve easily been the highest uncatchable rate of passes last year (31.5%) and because he was pressured on a season-high rate (29.3%), he threw a couple of bad picks (after he had one INT coming in). I’d say Love leading the league in average intended air yards (10.2) doesn’t properly tell the story, because it’s a lot of crossers and dump-offs to guys on leak routes along with the designed deep shots off play-action, rather than somebody who just rips throws into tight windows. I do believe with a fully healthy Aaron Jones and Christian Watson, they can be an above-average offense, with how Love has executed the Matt LaFleur offense, along with having added something extra with his legs, as only Josh Dobbs of all people averages more yards per scramble so far (11.0 yards per). There are things to get excited about for this defense, as they’re right on the fringe of the top-ten in yards per play (5.0) and third-down rate (33.9%). Yet again they struggle to stop the run consistently, with how much DC Joe Barry relies on two-high safety structures, but when they do get opponents into designated passing situations, Rashan Gary and company can apply heat, as they’re ranked third in pressure rate (27.1%). Unfortunately, that unit will continue to struggle against more well-balanced offenses, I fear.
14. Los Angeles Rams (2-2) 
How well this upstart L.A. team has looked like over the first month of the season at least, has been one of the more pleasant surprises so far. They’re not overwhelming in any one area, but they’re just really solid across the board I feel like. Right now, they’re in the top top-ten in offensive (45.1%) and defensive success rate against (41.5%). I talked about how Kyren Williams has been a true three-down back for this group last week, even though he may not create a ton of explosives. The Rams so far have just one run of over 20+ yards, but Matt Stafford is tied for second with 18 passes of such yardage. Sean McVay has really evolved in terms of using motion and stacks/bunches to mess with defensive rules and Matt Stafford has been an ice-cold killer, ripping those intermediate to deep throws all over the field with rushers in his face throughout September. In terms of their defense, casual NFL fans would’ve been maybe been able to name starter other than Aaron Donald, but several of their young guys have stepped up and they’re playing great team ball. They don’t create of negative plays, as they’re tied for a league-low 13 tackles for loss and the fourth-lowest sack total (seven). However, they have been very good situationally under DC Raheem Morris, as only the Browns have surrendered a lower third-down conversion rate in the league (26.7%) and despite their opponents already starting at the 32.3-yard line on average, they stop those guys just short of midfield based on the yardage they usually surrender per drive (27.3).
15. Tennessee Titans (2-2) 
Seeing Derrick Henry finally wake up this past Sunday against the Bengals was very encouraging, as he easily reached season-highs in rushing yards (122) and per-carry average (5.55). I like what third-rookie Tyjae Spears has provided as a change-of-pace option and someone who they can have on the field at the same time as King Henry. With that being said, they severely lack dynamism at pass-catcher, with less than 30% of Ryan Tannehill’s attempted passing resulting in a first down, and they only rank 30th in offensive success rate (38.8%). Tannehill is pushing the ball down the field, as he ranks behind only Jordan Love and Jalen Hurts in terms of the top marks in intended air yards per attempt (9.5 yards), but too many of those leave you scratching your head, reading leverage the wrong way or just putting it up there for grabs, like his completely unnecessary pick up 27-3 on a random second down, right into the hands of an awaiting Bengals safety this past Sunday. Defensively, they’ve had some issues on the back-end coverage-wise, but yet again they’re an elite run-stopping unit with Jeffery Simmons and Teair Tart constantly re-setting the line of scrimmage, allowing a league-low 2.9 yards per carry and being just one off the top mark in tackles for loss (26). That’s how offenses trying to stay balanced get pushed behind the chains and then you have guys like Denico Autry and Arden Key creating problems rushing from all over the line.
16. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-1) 
Do I believe the Bucs are a legit 3-1 team, who will be a real factor in the playoffs? No. But can they continue to win games against teams outside the top-ten – which the NFC South consists of entirely – and ultimately somehow win that division? Sure. Their defense is playing out their minds right now, ranking sixth league-in EPA per play (-0.110). Personnel-wise they look quite similar to their Super Bowl run three years ago, but their veterans have aged very well, Antoine Winfield Jr. – who was a rookie that season – is playing at an All-Pro level right now and they’re getting key contributions from someone like Christian Izien, who’s been the best nickel among rookies so far. Offensively, they’re still just under three yards per rush and if Mike Evans misses any extended stretch, I’m worried about the weaponry they have, but while Baker Mayfield had a potential pick-six dropped early on Sunday, he once again made a couple of tremendous extension plays for touchdowns, which ended up being the difference in the game. He’s currently sixth among NFL quarterbacks in EPA per play (0.188). They don’t have a ton of margin for error with how they play, but their defense steals extra possessions (10 takeaways) and keeps opponents out of the end-zone (27.3% red-zone TD rate).
17. Houston Texans (2-2) 
Let’s just start like this – C.J. Stroud has played like a top-ten NFL quarterback so far. He hasn’t looked like a rookie at all when it comes to problem-solving and how the speed of the game has affected him. He already set the record for most pass attempts to start a career without an interception in week three, but is now up to 151 total. He’s currently 14th in EPA per play among quarterbacks (0.102), he’s tied for fourth with 17 passes of 20+ yards and because of him largely, they’re fourth in third-down conversion rate (48.4%). All that becomes even more impressive, when you consider 80% of their starting O-line has been out basically all season and how little they’ve gotten from the run game. On that note, the two real issues on offense, they’re dead-last in rushing success rate (30.8%) and ahead of only the Saints in terms of red-zone touchdown rate (35.7%). On the flipside, their defense is tied for a league-low 13 tackles for loss, but even without last year’s third overall pick Derek Stingley at corner, there’s a lot to like about what we’ve seen so far. This year’s number three pick Will Anderson Jr. has looked great, along with the rest of those edge defenders setting a firm point of attack from those wide alignments and walking tackles backwards into the quarterback, I love the creativity on third downs to keep opponents guessing and all 11 guys rally to the ball with consistency. They simply need to clean up their tackling, as they’ve missed six more attempts (45) than any other team in the league.
18. New Orleans Saints (2-2) 
I can really go two different ways here. On one hand, we can say they could easily be 3-1 right now if not for blowing a 17-0 fourth-quarter lead at Green Bay. Yet on the opposite end, we can also say this group won by just a point at home against the Titans in the season-opener, despite three Ryan Tannehill interceptions and a 10-point in their favor, when a strip-sack plus return touchdown was whistled dead, leading to a field goal, before they won by three at the winless Panthers. Defensively, they’re right at number ten in EPA per play (-0.050), but we also have to acknowledge that Jordan Love may be the best quarterback they’ve faced through one month. On offense, Tony Jones Jr. leads the team with two touchdowns – half of their total so far. Derek Carr has taken some vertical shots to Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed, but otherwise things feel very condensed. The fact that Alvin Kamara had 13 catches in his return but gained only 33 yards on those – half of what was the previous low for any player in league history with as many receptions – is a pretty telling data-point. And we’ll have to see how the sprained AC joint affects Carr going forward, but the amount of times Olave was on the turf on Sunday as he was trying to adjust to off-target passes was insane.
19. Atlanta Falcons (2-2) 
As somebody who did nearly an hour-long breakdown of “why football nerds will fall in love with the 2023 Falcons offense”, it’s hard to see the potential this group has every week, yet how they end up spoiling it. They have a unicorn tight-end in Kyle Pitts, who can legitimately win one-on-one on the outside and change how defenses have to orchestrate coverages, but he’s reduced to running off defenders for Jonnu Smith to have space. They have Drake London, who can consistently win on quick routes or on jump-balls, but somehow that is only taken advantage of in the red-zone. And while Bijan Robinson’s usage has been really fun, then they insert Tyler Allgeier in the most unfavorable spots and actively kill drives when he touches the ball. They’re currently eighth in rush EPA (-0.012) but 32nd in dropback EPA (-0.224), because Desmond Ridder is still late in his processing of information and guys like right tackle Kaleb McGary, who can de-cleat people as a run-blocker gets exposed on true dropbacks. The defense has certainly made strides, with A.J. Terrell having a bounce-back season to lock up guys on the backside, Jessie Bates has been a difference-maker on the back-end for them with his range and football IQ and front-seven is as sound as it’s been in years. They’re not forcing many negative plays, as they’re 30th in sacks (5) and tied for a league-low 13 tackles for loss, but they’re number one in rush EPA per play defensive right now (-0.240) and have guys who can make plays when opponents have to drop back.
20. Washington Commanders (2-2) 
The Sam Howell experience has been an absolute rollercoaster. Among NFL starter, this is where he’s ranked in terms of EPA per play on a weekly basis – 26th, 16th, 32nd and 7th. The only high-level defense they’ve faced are the Bills, who treated the quarterback like a human piñata. Before Daniel Jones allowed the Seahawks to sack him 11 times, Sam Howell was seven clear of any other quarterback in the league in that regard (24) – and he’s still “up” by one. I certainly like what they have across their skill-position group, what I’ve seen from Eric Bienemy in terms of stressing defenses with the way they stretch the field and the floor Brian Robinson has been provided them on the ground, as somebody who consistently gains yards through contact and falls forward, while Howell has been clutch when needed. Defensively, their front is capable of putting opponents the chains, as they’re just one off the top mark in tackles for loss (26) and tied for seventh in sacks (13). Unfortunately, their secondary has surrendered too many big plays and they’ve been penalized a league-high 35 times on that side of the ball. Watching your first-round pick Emmanuel Forbes get abused for three plus hours by A.J. Brown certainly wasn’t great to see. Overall, because of that, they’ve allowed opposing offenses to score on a higher rate of drives than any team but the Broncos (52.4%).
21. Minnesota Vikings (1-3) 
First of all, I actually like this Vikings offense more than what I saw from them last year, when Justin Jefferson was the only viable pass-catcher until T.J. Hockenson arrived there and were bottom-eight in rushing success rate (38.1%). The way they’re able to isolate their isolate their receivers down the field is excellent and the reason Kirk Cousins leads the NFL with 19 completions of 20+ yards, while they’re up at fourth in rushing success rate so far this year. However, I’m not sure I’ve ever seen a quarterback be so content with checking it down between the 20s and kill drives that way, yet then force the ball into the tightest windows in the end-zone. To end the Chargers game on an interception at the goal-line and then to finish the first drive up in Carolina by trying to get the ball to the front-pylon late and get pick-sixed is pretty wild. Their issue offensively has been turnovers, as they lead the league with 11 such, including an insane seven fumbles lost. Meanwhile, their defense is as all-or-nothing as it gets. They lead the NFL with a ludicrous 58.2% blitz rate – that’s 13.9% higher than number three on that list. Brian Flores understands the limitations they have in the back-seven to hold up in coverage if they don’t force the issue. Against offenses like the Panthers who just counter this throwing quick screens, that can work, but if you face receivers like DeVonta Smith, they’ll eventually run free for a couple of long touchdowns.
22. Indianapolis Colts (2-2) 
I’ll say this – the refs made a game-deciding no-call in overtime at Baltimore to put them here, but as I already mentioned, the entire AFC South is tied at 2-2 and with the way fourth overall pick Anthony Richardson is playing right now, I’m ruling out that they might end up winning the division. The Colts haven’t provided him a whole lot of help, as they’re ranked 31st in offensive rush EPA (-0.241), but Richardson leads the league with an 11.9% explosive play rate (12+ yard runs and 20+ yard passes). I love some of the play-designs I’ve seen from head coach Shane Steichen and the way they’ve taken stuff off the quarterback’s plate mentally early on, but then we also see him launch the ball accurately 40 yards down the field whilst getting wrapped up by Aaron Donald and take over to lead a 23-nothing comeback, before never getting the ball back in overtime. His legs and creation skills have also been huge in the red-zone, as only the Ravens and Dolphins have converted a higher rate of their trips down there into touchdowns (72.7%). I wished the Colts had REAL outside corners and I’m hoping Juju Brents can live up to my expectations for him, because the range and play-making on the second level really pops and they frequently are able to create negative plays, as they’re tied for first with 27 tackles for loss and tied for fourth with 14 sacks on the season.
23. New York Jets (1-3) 
Full transparency – I went into this past Sunday night ready to write off the Jets. Then they look like the better team for the final three quarters against the Chiefs and I’m feeling ambivalent about their outlook. Even though what we saw from Zach Wilson on Sunday night was highly encouraging, the Jets are still dead-last in dropback success rate (35.6) and they’re also only 24th in rushing success rate (37.0%). Other than Breece Hall’s two runs of over 40 yards and Garrett Wilson’s 68-yard catch-and-run touchdown play, they’ve really struggled to find offense. Where I do see hope is that Zach still has the longest time to throw among NFL starters (3.11 seconds) and connected to that the second-highest pressure rate on dropbacks (34.3%), but we did see him be a lot more successful against the Chiefs – when he legitimately outplayed Patrick Mahomes – by getting the ball out much quicker. With that being said, their defense hasn’t nearly been as dominant as expected since their 13-10 overtime win week one against the Bills. What on paper appears like one of the best and deepest pass-rush groups shockingly ranks 29th with a pressure rate (15.5%) and they’ve allowed opponents to convert third downs against them at the fifth-highest rate (46.8%). If they can keep that group fresh and energized, we saw their potential against KC however and they’ve kept opponents out of the end-zone when they got into the red-zone, holding them to just three touchdowns on 12 such possessions (25% success rate is the lowest league-wide). And while the last image we have of the Jets being a flag being thrown for pass-interference on Sauce Gardner, the Jets are actually the only team in the league with less than 100 yards surrendered in penalties.
24. Cincinnati Bengals (1-3) 
Hey there! It’s me, the idiot who predicted the Bengals to go to the Super Bowl. I actually outlined in my season predictions that I think they’ll start slow again due to Joe Burrow’s pulled hamstring and a new starting safety tandem, but I did not think the injury would get even worse or that their defense would be one of just three units across the league to allow 5+ yards per carry (5.1). We saw that crew hold the Rams to just nine points until the final of their 12 drives on the day and Dax Hill has played well enough to not make the loss of Jessie Bates appear massive. However, because they don’t put opponents behind the sticks on early downs, DC Lou Anarumo can’t get as creative with different pressure looks as we’re accustomed to seeing from them. I do believe they can be good enough on that side of the ball if they weren’t on the field as much, but the offense has just been so disappointing. The only three teams across the NFL with a worse offensive success rate (39.3%) so far are the Titans, Steelers and Jets, they average a league-worst 4.0 yards per play overall and Joe Burrow currently is also dead-last in yards per pass attempt (4.8). He can’t step into and drive throws, the protection isn’t good enough to afford him time to execute pure progression reads and after we applauded Zac Taylor and company for the way the re-invented their offense last year, watching him adapt Miami’s “quick-out motion” only for receivers to jog into standing there non-threatening whilst they get a shotgun run stuffed inside, makes me want to throw up.
25. Pittsburgh Steelers (2-2) 
If there’s ever been a warning sign about how we should completely ignore what we see in the preseason, it’s the way this Steelers offense has looked like. I just don’t really know what to hang your hat on right now. Kenny Pickett has reverted a one-read and bail quarterback with poor pocket presence, Najee Harris easily had his best game on Sunday but he may not crack a 4.8 right now and they refuse to get the more explosive Jaylen Warren involved early, they have to put their first-round pick Broderick Jones in at left tackle and OC Matt Canada is actively making the job harder on his players, as by far the worst offense on scripted plays, when you look early-game success rate. Kenny Pickett has been pressured on an insane 34.8% of his dropbacks, which would in a league of itself if not for Zach Wilson joining him in that sphere – and that’s despite 0.14 fewer seconds in terms of time to throw, even if it’s still nearly three seconds on average. They’re dead-last in offensive EPA per play (-0.214) and have gained a league-low 53 first downs across 230 plays. I mean they’ve only reached the red-zone five times so far (fewest in the NFL). The reason they’re 2-2 is they are actually +3 in turnover differential and they’ve scored a couple of defensive touchdowns, which were the difference in week two against the Browns, before facing an even worse team in the Raiders. They have a couple of stars on defense who can change the momentum of games in T.J. Watt and Minkah Fitzpatrick, but their linebackers yet again are slow to fill/scrape against run concepts and receivers can quickly win against this group of corners.
26. New England Patriots (1-3) 
I was of the mindset that the Patriots would be a tough out every week this year and that they will be in the hunt for that final Wildcard spot as we get to January. And things looked pretty good early on, when despite a horrible start, their offense had the ball with a chance to beat the reigning NFC champs in the Eagles in the opener. And then they were able to at least slow down the Dolphins in a 24-17 defeat the next week. However, after the Jets came up just short of a game-winning Hail Mary on a day where they’re offense could not get anything going, they just suffered the worst loss in Bill Belichick’s coaching career (38-3 at Dallas). Bill O’Brien’s offense, which looked functional early on severely lacks juice and it seems that Mac Jones may be actively rebelling against it yet again, with multiple throws all the way across the field with defenders driving on them. They’re tied for 29th in offensive EPA per play (-0.179) and have three of the bottom-14 pass-catchers who have been targeted 15+ times in terms of average separation created. Meanwhile, I thought this could be one of the elite defenses in football and in reality, 19.0 average points allowed is pretty solid, considering who they’ve faced. However, they’ve only taken the ball away twice to give their offense the ball more often and are now dealing with major injuries, as standout rookie corner Christian Gonzalez suffered a torn labrum and their one steady difference-maker up front in Matt Judon a torn pec that might knock them for the rest of the year.
27. Arizona Cardinals (1-3) 
Am I crazy now or should Cardinals fans be excited that this team has looked as competitive as it has? They went into the season as the clear favorites in the Caleb Williams sweepstakes and now it appears they’re a notch above the two winless teams left, to where neither their nor the Texans they get this past April will be high enough to put them in range for either of the top two quarterbacks. Their offense ranks behind only the Dolphins’ explosive attack in terms of yards per rush (5.3), because they use more variety in terms of personnel and run concepts, while Josh Dobbs leads the NFL with an average of 13.4 yards on his eight scrambles. They don’t have a legit number one option in the pass game, but they’ve got some guys with different skill-sets and different areas where they can win. Being top-ten in offensive EPA a month into the season with a quarterback who arrived in Arizona two weeks prior to kickoff seemed impossible initially. The defense I’d call frisky more so. They’ve had guys stand out on all three levels, with names like Dennis Gardeck, Kyzir White and UDFA corner Kei’Trel Clark, and they’ve missed the third-fewest tackles in the league (16). They are one of only two teams (along with Miami) allowing a success rate above 50% defensively, although that is heavily influenced by the 49ers just putting together one of the efficient offensive performances I can ever remember (30 first downs on 53 plays) this past Sunday. Unfortunately, the team has been penalized more often (34) for more yards (303) than any other franchise in the NFL.
28. Denver Broncos (1-3) 
Since Peyton Manning retired in 2016 – and really even during that Super Bowl run – the Broncos may have consistently been held back by bad quarterback play, but the one thing they’ve been able to rely upon for the majority of time has been a solid-to-excellent defense. Right now, they’re on pace for one of the worst seasons on that side of the ball that we’ve ever seen. Of course the 70-burger the Dolphins put on them in week three plays a big factor in this, but the Denver is in a league of their own right now in terms of EPA per play allowed (0.285). That’s basically as if Patrick Mahomes had dropped back against them on every single play so far, looking at his career average. And I put in the effort to calculate this – even if you took that week three no-show out of the equation, they’d only ascend to 31st in that metric. The biggest reason for it has been their lackluster pass-rush, with a league-worst 10.5% pressure rate, but we also just saw several busts in coverage, allowing Justin Fields to have a career day against them, when some people were ready to convert him to a different position. And that’s just such a shame, because after having the worst season of his career last year, Russell Wilson currently ranks fifth among NFL quarterbacks in EPA per play (0.222). That paired with at least an average run game would be enough to be a playoff team, if they had their defense from 2022, until the dam broke at least.
29. Las Vegas Raiders (1-3) 
I just don’t know where this team is heading. Last year it felt like they were putting the finishing touches on what had been a Wildcard team, but now it appears their biggest addition in Davante Adams went from playing with his best friend in college (Derek Carr) to now feeling completely out of place for a somewhat rebuilding franchise, that doesn’t really acknowledge that and isn’t going anywhere. The Raiders fittingly are 29th in EPA per play defensively (0.116), with the one-man show Maxx Crosby not being underneath to elevate this pass-rush, as only the Bears have a worse pressure rate created (12.5%). As we flip things around, the offensive line has been slightly better than expected, because they rely quite heavily on early-down play-action to help that group out. Yet, we see Jimmy G’s issues outside the Kyle Shanahan show up, while they don’t have nearly the same kind of infrastructure around him, other than Davante. After Josh Jacobs led the league in rushing last year, the team has rushed for a league-low 261 yards, are tied for the worst mark in yards per carry (3.0) and at the bottom of the league in rush EPA (-0.257) through the first month. They’re just not built to be a team to play from behind, which isn’t helped by currently having the worst turnover differential in the NFL (-9), as only the Vikings have given it away more often than them (ten times) while only having taken it away once.
30. New York Giants (1-3) 
When you clearly are the worse New York team, despite being the one who still has their 40-million per year quarterback healthy, it’s a rough situation. I know the Giants actually beat the Cardinals head-up in week two (who are three spots ahead of them in these rankings), but that took a 20-point comeback and they’ve been non-competitive the rest of the season, losing all three other contests by at least 18 points. Daniel Jones certainly hasn’t played up to that massive contract they gave him in the offseason – which I and many others considered a mistake at the time – but in no way can we put all of this on him. If you take the quarterback out of the equation – who has contributed 46%(!) of their rushing total – the rest of the team of the has averaged just 50.8 yards per game and 3.3 yards per carry. None of their pass-catchers consistently win one-on-one and the offensive line is back to being a collection of speed-bumps without Andrew Thomas at left tackle. DJ has been pressured a league-high 51 times and only Sam Howell has been sacked more often (22), with half of those coming this past Monday night by the Seahawks, who had previously struggled to get home but gobbled up the QB every single time he dropped back it felt like. Meanwhile, last year’s top-five pick Kayvon Thibodeaux has largely been quiet, if he didn’t face backup tackles, and while DC Wink Martindale has thrown out some extreme gameplans, they remain the only team to yet take the ball away once. On top of all that, they’re dead-last in the HRF stat, starting drives 8.6 yards further back than their opponents on average (24.5- vs. 33.4-yard line). Things have to be looking up, right? Well, how about a little road-trip to Miami and then Buffalo next? Ouch.
31. Carolina Panthers (0-4) 
While some people thought the Panthers had a chance to compete for a weak NFC South this season, for realists, all that mattered is for the number one overall pick to be somebody who at least gives you a shot every year. Well, Bryce Young right now is dead-last in EPA per play among quarterbacks (-0.229) and he has completed just two passes of 20+ yards. They’re reportedly in the market for a number one receiver, after having to trade away D.J. Moore as part of the package for the top draft pick, which is more than necessary, with how unthreatened defenses seem with the objective of just manning up against that group. The receiver they paired Bryce up with early in the second round in Jonathan Mingo currently has a league-worst 1.8 yards of separation on average, according to Next Gen Stats, and 33-year-old Adam Thielen is the guy they’re specifically designing plays for. I expected more creativity and just answers for problems they’re being presented from this offensive coaching staff. Simply throwing quick screens when the defense overload run fronts isn’t it. Carolina came into the year as a sneaky pick for one of the better defenses in the league, but losing Jaycee Horn and Shaq Thompson to IR have been huge for how that unit is structured. They have allowed the highest rushing EPA of any team defensively (0.115) and it’s by quite a gap to the Broncos just better than them, who gave up 350(!) rushing yards week three to the Dolphins. The Panthers are one of only three defenses to hold opponents under 30% on third downs (27.7%), but the issue is that they allow them to be way too efficient on early downs, in part due to 39 missed tackles (second-most).
32. Chicago Bears (0-4) 
Looking at teams like the Bengals or Jets, who were expected to be major players in the AFC, they are very disappointed with how things have gone so far, but they at least have injuries to their star quarterbacks to blame for the lack of success. I’m not sure there’s a fanbase out there more disappointed in how their franchise has operated so far. Even without looking on the field, having to send home a receiver you spent the 32nd overall draft pick on and having to call impromptu press-conferences to ensure the media you’re fine, before getting embarrassed on Sunday night by the Chiefs, Chicago is straight-up not having a good time. Getting back to the actual on-field product – Even after facing the Broncos, who currently are dead-last in basically all meaningful defensive metrics and allowed him to have a career day as a passer, Justin Fields only ranks 28th in EPA per play (-0.138). And even when he did finally perform well this past week, their rookie right tackle allows the backside linebacker to shoot through the gap on the backside to shut down a monstrous fourth down attempt, before his tight-end runs a horrible route, where the ball was put to the right spot but it ended up getting picked off. Maybe even worse, they invested a bunch of money and draft picks into what should be head coach Matt Eberfluse’s forte on defense. Yet, only the Broncos have allowed a higher yards per play (6.1) and EPA per play mark (0.223) on the defensive side of the ball and they’ve recorded a league-low two sacks. The only silver lining? – Since they and Carolina are at the bottom of the standings, they’re currently slated to own the top-two draft picks in a pivotal draft next April.
Halil's Real Footballtalk 