Every week of the NFL season there are a million things going on and it’s impossible to keep up with it all. So after watching the first full slate of games, I decided to outline three key storylines or takeaways for all 16 contests. These can be based around an individual player, coach, team unit or schematic nuance to track going forward.

Of course, week one can be liar and we shouldn’t overreact to anything we just watched, but based on where we stand right now, these are things that jumped to me across the league upon watching every game and trying to put them into context.

  Detroit Lions @ Kansas City Chiefs: 

 

Final score – 21:20

 

1. Both these teams desperately lacked an ace pass-catcher

This one is pretty obvious, in particular when it comes to Travis Kelce being ruled out a couple of hour prior to the 2023 season kickoff. His lacking presence was truly felt every time Patrick Mahomes dropped back. Even when he maybe wouldn’t have gotten the ball, the gravity he has if you isolate him on the backside, to give the rest of the group more space to work with, the timing was off at times by the other pieces in his place, and then thinking back to that big drop/incompletion by Kadarius Toney – who had an absolute nightmare performance – off a mesh concept, Travis would’ve probably been part of it and you wouldn’t have had guys running at the same depth, colliding with each other. Plus, then of course the third-down magic between him and Mahomes was missing, which is how they went 5-of-14 on the day. Meanwhile, the Lions were fairly efficient on offense, out-producing their opponents in passing (11) and rushing first downs (8), but they had just one play of 25+ yards on the day and Jahmyr Gibbs was the only explosive element that flashed at times, being limited to nine touches. You don’t want to live in a world where you’re running designed screen passes to Josh Reynolds and Marvin Jones Jr. – Amon-Ra St. Brown is a tremendous chain-mover, who can win vs. man or zone, but he doesn’t necessarily change the math for defenses. They need Jameson Williams to give them that dynamism once he returns from suspension in six weeks.

 

2. Aidan Hutchinson and the Lions D-line might be making a massive leap

The amount of discourse around Jawaan Taylor being lined up offside, jumping the snap and twitching with his outside foot was insane. Clearly there was illegal movement that should’ve been flagged and the rules committee should probably think about emphasizing alignments along the front. However, that kind of overshadowed that Taylor did his best by taking advantages of those rules to an extreme and having some good moments, but Hutch did flash on several occasions throughout the day. He put KC’s right tackle in the spin cycle a couple of times, was on-point with his hand-swipes to win the corner and when he didn’t have somebody inside of him, took advantage of the wide-open B-gap with some inside moves. However, while they actually didn’t have any sacks as a unit because of how ridiculous Mahomes is at eluding pressure and getting rid of the ball, the rest of that front had some moments as well – Benito Jones was a firm interior run-stopper who helped hold the Chiefs to 3.9 yards per carry, Josh Paschal had that big TFL on the fly sweep to Rashee Rice, when Andy Rice got a little too fancy on a third-and-one and you saw multiple other guys flush the QB at times. Along with how the rest of the new additions in the back-seven looked, this defense could at least be an average unit, after being one of the worst last season.

 

3. Kansas City’s defense might be pretty good now with Chris Jones back

Like I already mentioned, the Lions had one play of 25+ for the game and overall, they averaged a miniscule 5.3 yards per. Particularly defending the run, going up against one of the best offensive lines and ground attacks from a year, KC held David Montgomery and company to 3.5 yards per carry, with one of 34 going for more than eight yards on the night. Detroit had one impressive touchdown drive of 91 and 75 yards respectively. However, looking at the other nine drives they had, two gained one first downs, one ended in a punch-out and fumble-recovery at the fringe of the red-zone, they forced two turnovers on downs and the other five were three-and-outs. They barely allowed those receivers to create separation when playing man and in zone, everybody hustled to the ball, in order to limit completions to minimal yardage. Now all they really needed was a true difference-maker up front, in particular. Well, on Monday they agreed to a re-worked one-year deal with Chris Jones, whose 97 total pressures last season were 27(!) more than the next-closest interior D-lineman and 11 of his 15.5 sacks ended up directly stopping drives.

 

 

Carolina Panthers @ Atlanta Falcons: 

 

Final score – 21:20

 

1. Arthur Smith still doesn’t care about your fantasy team

Listening to the Ringer Fantasy Football Show or really any related programs, you’re starting to get the feeling that Smith is almost trolling fantasy players at this point, specifically mentioning them in press conferences when asked about the usage of his skill-position players. The Falcons have now drafted a tight-end, wide receiver and running each respectively in the top-ten of the last three years, yet those three combined for just 20 opportunities across 48 offensive plays on Sunday. Unicorn tight-end Kyle Pitts hauled in two of three targets for 34 yards, with one of those being an incredible diving grab through pass-interference on a corner route. Meanwhile, wide receiver Drake London dropped his one target on the day on a quick stick route, while playing 90%(!) of offensive snaps. Bijan Robinson did out-snap Tyler Allgeier 33-to-29, but Allgeier had five more carries (15) and scored on two of hose, while Bijan got his lone score on a swing route, where he made a defender miss and split a couple of tacklers, from 11 yards away. With how much the defense was able to keep rookie QB Bryce Young and company in check, they didn’t need to do a whole lot offensively, and Smith will continue not caring about getting all of his weapons involved on a weekly basis, if it lends itself to winning football.

 

2. Carolina has no juice at all among their receiving corp

When the Panthers traded up to first overall pick of this year’s draft and ultimately selected Alabama’s Bryce Young, my understanding was that their young O-line showed significant growth over the second half of the 2022 season and while they may not have a true alpha receiver, they had enough around Young to allow him to spread the wealth among those guys in a well-designed Frank Reich offense. The pocket was getting crushed around the young QB on Sunday, but I thought that was more due to schematic issues Atlanta was able to create and the real issue was that NOBODY was creating separation against man-/match-coverages. The two leaders in receptions and yards for the Panthers on Sunday were tight-end Hayden Hurst (five catches for 41 yards and their lone touchdown) and running back Miles Sanders (four for 26 yards). Across the 18 other targets, nobody else caught more than two passes with a high of 23 yards, while Bryce’s longest completion was just 14 yards. Despite an average of just 6.3 intended air yards per attempt, Bryce also only got 92 yards after the catch across 38 pass attempts (20 completions). The young signal-caller needs to learn he can’t be late on those backside dig routes versus split-safety coverages, especially if the guy to that side is Pro Bowler Jessie Bates III, who picked him off twice that way, but he needs some help.

 

3. The Falcons defense isn’t afraid to attack and man up

No other team in the NFL was even close to how much Atlanta spent on their defense in free agency. Nearly 150 million dollars went to players on that side of the ball alone, handing out big-time multi-year deals to guys at all three levels. Carolina was pretty committed to running the ball, but on ten of their 15 third downs on the day they were eight or more yards away from the sticks and they only converted three of those. The Falcons were not afraid to bring five or six rushers and ask their guys on the back-end to hold up. I don’t have any numbers on this, but I’d be willing to be at least every other snap the Falcons were running some kind of twists or three-man game. They got their linebackers involved a lot as loopers or mugged up into a gap, along with trusting those guys to peel off in order to match the back releasing. Meanwhile, behind that it was a ton of cover-one with Jessie Bates as the deep middle safety, or match-quarters, where those safeties were ready to drive on in-breaking routes in front of them – which is how Bates came up with his two interceptions. They only recorded two sacks, but pressured Bryce on 33.3% of his dropbacks. The rookie QB never looked comfortable throughout the day, regularly having to fade away on the release and as slippery as he is, not even he found escape lanes.

 

 

  Houston Texans @ Baltimore Ravens: 

 

Final score – 9:25

 

1. Zay Flowers is going to be featured in a multitude of ways

There was a lot of hype about a more wide-open Ravens offense over the course of the offseason, thanks to the switch at offensive coordinator to Todd Monken and the wide receiver additions of veteran Odell Beckham Jr. and first-round pick Zay Flowers. While the idea of having three largely interchangeable receivers was really fun, we didn’t know if there might be a primary option among those. Well, between the rookie, OBJ and Rashod Bateman (the only WRs who were targeted on Sunday), ten of 16 targets went towards the former Boston College standout Zay was my number one wide receiver prospect in this draft, because I thought he was the complete package, being able to play all three spots, having the speed to be a vertical threat, the physicality to go over the middle of the field and the dynamic run-after-catch skills to create offense. All you needed to watch was his NFL preseason debut, when he scored a touchdown off a nice YAC play, to realize he just moves “different”. Baltimore threw him screen passes out of bunch sets as basically pre-snap RPOs if they had even numbers to that side, they got him involved on fly sweeps, threw him a slot fade route, a deep comeback off heavy play-action and then three more designed screens off motion, in order to bleed the clock, since the run game wasn’t particularly effective. You saw juke defenders, spin off contact and slip out of the grasp of a few would-be-tacklers. This is a weapon and while there may be a slightly less even distribution among those WRs, the Ravens will continue to evolve his role.

 

2. DeMeco Ryans has Houston’s defense turning things around earlier than anticipated

I know the Texans allowed 25 points on Sunday, but I thought going through the tape, there were several encouraging signs for them. The Ravens scored touchdowns on their first two drives of the second half off a three-and-out and a turnover on downs in their own territory for Houston’s offense, but they had held Baltimore to just four first downs gained in the first half and three after those two trips to the end-zone, along with forcing a couple of turnovers. They set physical edges in the run game (holding Baltimore to 3.4 yards per carry), everybody rallied to the ball playing more traditional coverages on early downs and then they had some cool designer plays in designated passing situations, as Lamar was pressured on 41.9% of dropbacks. On the first third down of the day, the Texans were running a hybrid coverage against an empty set by the Ravens, with man to the two-eligible side and bailing a mugged-up linebacker out into cover-two towards the trips side. Lamar needed to pull the ball down and they got home four, as Jonathan Greenard cleaned up the sack, with both edge rushers converting speed-to-power from wide-nine alignments. Then on the next two third-and-longs, they were in double A-gap mug looks and brought one of the safeties down. First, to actually blitz him off the edge and create unblocked rushers off both sides to force an intentional grounding call when rushing six, and then to pick up the tight-end in what basically turned into man-coverages with match principles vs. switch releases, where they brought one more (seven rushers) than the offense could block. DeMeco has these guys locked in and brings a lot of creative ideas on key downs.

 

3. Mike Macdonald’s defense is ready to go, Todd Monken’s offense may need some time to kick into gear

It’s not like we expected Houston’s offense to be a juggernaut this season, but there was reason to believe this unit was going to be at least competent unit. However, only three times on the day did they make it inside the Baltimore 35-yard line and once inside the 15, which they immediately got knocked out of again with a sack. The only run play of more than seven yards they allowed on the day from Bobby Slowik’s offense, who came over from San Francisco this offseason, was an 11-yard scramble by C.J. Stroud. In passing situations, I really liked what I saw from them in terms of bringing simulated pressures, changing the picture with post-snap rotations and the guys were extremely well-instructed in terms of how to react to switch-releases in man or where to expect the offense to attack vs. zone. On the first two third-downs of the day, Baltimore was able to create a free rusher as part of five-man pressures, which should have resulted in sacks for both, but at least drew a flag for holding on the latter one, after Stroud was able to wiggle himself out of the arms of Jadeveon Clowney. Meanwhile, Baltimore’s offense wasn’t running nearly as smoothly. Along with their running backs averaging just 2.6 yards per carry – and things won’t get any easier now with J.K. Dobbins placed on IR – I thought there was room for improvement when it comes to spacing of routes and releasing out of bunches, we didn’t see any true dropbacks out of more traditional rushing personnel-sets and Lamar didn’t seem to have solutions at hand when the Texans brought pressure – as creative as those might have been. Plus, Lamar has issues handling the ball. Obviously, getting back Mark Andrews should help a lot, but I need to see a little more from Todd Monken.

 

 

  Cincinnati Bengals @ Cleveland Browns: 

 

Final score – 3:24

 

1. Cleveland’s defense has all the pieces to be a top-five unit in the NFL

Feel free to scroll back to August 30^th for my prediction of the top-10 defenses in the league this year, where I had the Browns number six overall. Understanding how they’re constructed and who’s calling the shots I really liked the idea of it, but now we also have proof of concept, even if the sample size obviously is small. Early on in the offseason, I mentioned that they have one of the most improved defensive lines this offseason, with two legit nose-tackles added in free agency and the draft to firm up one of the worst interior run defenses, along with a diverse group of pass-rushers, I projected Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah and Martin Emerson to have breakout years. Cincy’s rushing success rate of just 18% was the worst mark of this millennium. They had tremendous depth up front, with Myles Garrett as the true queen on the chessboard, who they had as a spinner over the center and create problems in passing situations. Their average time to pressure of 1.95 seconds against the Bengals was tied for the sixth-fastest by a defense in a single game since the start of the 2019 season. JOK was kept clean to shoot gaps for run stuffs, Denzel Ward looked like the guy they had that big contract, to give them one of the premiere corner trios and allowing them to run a lot of single-high structures, and Grant Delpit triggering down on everything in front of him so aggressively.

 

2. Tee Higgins did not seem present in this game

And to be honest, while I don’t want to assume something about his character, it kind of felt like he really wanted to be there – which is worrisome considering the reports about him and the Bengals not being close in terms of contract negotiations. I know it rained throughout the day and receivers couldn’t get out of their breaks in a very precise fashion, but Tee truly looked lazy running routes. The initial burst was non-existent, he didn’t even really try to stack his man on vertical routes, he rounded off his breaks and actually enabled corners angles to the ball themselves. When Joe Burrow goes 14-of-31 for 82 yards, there’s not a whole lot of production to be had, but a goose-egg in receptions and yards on eight targets? That’s pretty wild. On Sunday they’ll be going up against the Ravens, who Higgins has had one monster game against in a blowout win a couple of years but has otherwise been pretty quiet against. If he doesn’t show up against a wounded Baltimore secondary, this will be something worth continue tracking throughout the year.

 

3. Deshaun Watson still simply doesn’t seem right

Browns fans won’t care too much about this right now, after beating their division-rivals by three touchdowns on the backs of their defense and over 200 yards rushing (5.2 yards per). However, that makes what their 230-million-dollar guaranteed quarterback did even more concerning. Looking at the final numbers, going 16-of-29 for 154 yards, one touchdown and interception each doesn’t seem horrible, and where he did add real value was as a runner, gaining 45 yards and scoring the Browns’ other touchdown on five additional attempts. However, Deshaun looked erratic inside the pocket, he dirted some passes when trying to drive them and he simply wasn’t able to execute pass concepts on time consistently. That’s along with completely missing Dax Hill hanging there in the flats and throwing it right to him after escaping the pocket. If the rest of the team performs similarly to what we saw on Sunday, they can certainly be a playoff team, even in a loaded AFC, but how the most important piece and the biggest investment of the franchise plays going forward will determine if they might be able to compete with the elites in the conference.

 

 

  Jacksonville Jaguars @ Indianapolis Colts: 

 

Final score – 31:21

 

1. Anthony Richardson plus a capable defense immediately make the Colts watchable

In terms of rookie quarterback debuts, Anthony Richardson to me was clearly the best and most fun to watch. He stood tall inside the pocket and ripped seam routes, layered touch throws over the second level of the defense, but then also took the lay-ups in the flats if the defense was out-leveraged or nobody was open down the field. Shane Steichen didn’t put a ton on his plate mentally, with a lot of half-field reads. Richardson generally was keeping his eyes down the field and effectively climbing the pocket, but then also had an awesome throw across his body on the Colts’ final possession, where he was approaching the sideline and the defense was moving with him, while Michael Pittman Jr. adjusted from a curl route to slide just inside all of the defenders other than the two guys isolated with receivers on the opposite side. You saw the power this guy has a runner, when on a fourth-and-five inside the Colts ten-yard line he took off up the middle and two linebackers were waiting for him a couple of yards short of the sticks, yet he lowered his shoulder and barreled forward for the conversion. Unfortunately, he got a little banged up on the very next snap, as nobody got open against man-coverage and he needed to run himself again, but altogether he accounted for 263 of Indy’s 280 yards of total offense. The only real mistake he made was underestimating a sinking corner in cover-two for his lone pick on a corner route. He has one-man show ability and they’ve got some players on defense to make plays, like the alert punch-out on the rookie running back Tank Bigsby of a live ball, after DeForest Buckner strip-sacked the quarterback and then scooped up the second fumble for a touchdown.

 

2. Calvin Ridley is so freaking back

Over and over this summer did I rave about the connection between Trevor Lawrence and his new star receiver, mentioning that he was a top-ten player at the position when last playing a full season, his pristine route-running and how he would change the dynamics of this Jags offense because of his ability to regularly create separation from his man as the isolated X receiver on the backside of the formation. Well, that’s exactly how he was used on Sunday and he was able to take advantage of the Colts cornerbacks to the tune of eight catches for 101 yards and a touchdown on eleven targets – and he just grazed the white line on a run-after-catch play, which cost him another 16 yards and a score. He consistently threatened vertically with his head down and forward lean, then was able to snap off guys on hitches and deep curl routes, there was no fat on his breaks, he snatched the ball away from his frame and then instantly turned upfield. Three plays in particular stood out – he ran a crosser off play-action and showed great focus hauling in the ball, with a trailing corner and a hang-defender from then opposite side converging on him, the long run and near-touchdown where he spun outside off a curl and had two defenders tripping over each other and then of course the actual score he had, where he showed that innate feel for finding open space in the end-zone on a secondary route – just like I discussed when I discussed him as one of my “fantasy diamonds”.

 

3. Neither of these teams can run the ball consistently

As I just mentioned, Anthony Richardson was relied upon to be the offense basically, accounting for 94%(!) of their total yardage on the day. Otherwise, Indy had just 25 rushing yards on 16 attempts (1.6 yards per), while their lead-back Deon Jackson fumbled and lost the ball twice. Considering the Colts had the league’s leading rushing Jonathan Taylor just two years ago – who is on IR and we’ll have to see if that personal situation is repairable – and they couldn’t really open up any lanes on Sunday. Along with that, Jags edge defender Josh Allen was left blocked unblocked off the edge a couple of times for TFLs, where it looked like he should’ve been accounted for. On both sides I thought running backs got stonewalled at the line of scrimmage, regularly needing to stop their feet in the backfield and having to find an escape route. That’s how Travis Etienne got his late 26-yard touchdown as the defense was all condensed inside and he jumped back all the way to the backside and just slipped out of a couple of diving tackling attempts. Up to that point, Jacksonville was at 79 rushing yards on 34 carries (2.3 yards per). So not a whole lot better. The defensive front-sevens clearly won the battle on both sides, including three combined stops on fourth-and-one.

 

 

  Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Minnesota Vikings: 

 

Final score – 20:17

 

1. The Bucs defense still has more teeth to it than they’re given credit for

After winning the NFC South last season – even though it may have been more so by default – the Bucs were projected to pick in the top-five of next year’s draft, due to the massive downgrade expected at the quarterback position from Tom Brady to Baker Mayfield. What people seemed to ignore is that they were bringing back 10 of 11 defensive starters and used their first-round pick on D-tackle Calijah Kancey (Pitt), after dropping to 11^th following back-to-back seasons at fifth in terms of EPA per play defensively. You saw a lot of what we’re familiar with from a Todd Bowles-coached unit – safeties driving down hard on routes in front of them in quarters and defenders in off-coverage quickly shutting down completions underneath, challenging receivers with man-coverage and bringing extra bodies from all different angles. That includes an Antoine Winfield Jr. strip-sack fumble and recovery early on. Outside of the 39-yard touchdown pass to rookie Jordan Addison, where the defense kind of let him through in quarters and get lost on a skinny post, the Bucs defense held the home-team to just 5.26 yards per play, despite a 73% pass rate. Devin White received a 90.2 PFF coverage grade – the second-best of his career – and they might have found a gem in undrafted nickelback Christian Izien, who I pointed out as a potentially impactful UDFA shortly after the draft, He allowed just one reception all day going up against K.J. Osborn mostly and then took another one away from that guy for a goal-line interception.

 

2. Captain Checkdown was at it again

Despite playing against a defense that dares you to punish them with testing one-on-one coverage and having the top wide receiver in the league in Justin Jefferson (who hauled in nine of 12 targets for 150 yards), a first-round pick at the WR2 spot and now the second-highest paid tight-end in NFL history based on average annual value, Kirk Cousins led what was one of the least-explosive attacks we saw on Sunday. I just mentioned the poor yards-per-play mark for this group, but let’s just quickly recap the day – If you take away his two strip-sacks, Kirk threw the ball short of the sticks on four of the other six third downs in the first half, before trying to fit in a slant route into a tight window on a second-and-one in the red-zone, trying to force something all of a sudden. Minnesota had a big 16-play, 75-yard touchdown drive when they first got the ball in the second half, that tied the score at 17-all, but then also followed that up with consecutive three-and-outs to end the day. Cousins finished 21^st league-wide for week one in intended air yards per attempt (6.8) and if you were to take off the Addison TD against a busted coverage, that number drops off by another full yard. The amount quick dump-offs around the line of scrimmage tomake it second-and-long was maddening,

 

3. Baker Mayfield may be just enough to cost Tampa Bay the chance at a franchise QB in the draft

At this point, we may want to just rotate Baker between poor teams expected to lose and see if he can give them wind beneath their wings. This guy has won now in debuts with three of the four teams he’s been a part of, including a long field-goal costing him a week one revenge over Cleveland in week one last year. In no way would I say he played particularly well at Minnesota last weekend, but he didn’t turn the ball over and over the final 35 minutes, he went six-of-eight on third downs as a passer or runner. New Vikings DC Brian Flores call quite a bit of blitz-zero or showed heavy pressure and then spot-dropped. But what that mindset leads to is plenty of opportunities for the Bucs receivers to come up with passes in isolated situations and take advantage of free-access throws vs. off-coverage on the outside. Baker completed a fourth-and-inches sneak from their own 32-yard line with about eight minutes left, to get their drive going at the end of which they kicked the ultimately game-winning field goal. Then he had a massive scramble for a conversion on third-and-two, where the Vikings lost contain on the rush, and finally a deep out to Chris Godwin on a third-and-ten for the game-clinching first down, where Godwin made a tremendous grab at the sideline, but fourth-round pick Mekhi Blackmon was giving the receiver way too big a cushion. I could Baker help them to win just enough games to take themselves out of the Caleb Williams-Drake Maye-QB X sweepstakes next April.

 

 

  Tennessee Titans @ New Orleans Saints: 

 

Final score – 15:16

 

1. Refs need to stop blowing the f-ing whistle at the possibility of a live ball

My (censored) language would make you believe I have any association with Tennessee here, but really it’s just the amount of times we see teams get screwed because somebody whistles the play dead and even if the other team ends up with the takeaway, a touchdown is taken off the board – Just watch what happened on the Jaguars-Titans game, when rookie running back Tank Bigsby casually picked up a live ball, nobody blew the whistle, Indy ended up punching it out and returning it for a huge score. In this case the, Saints actually retained possession on a coin-flipped type of call, but I would’ve definitely leaned towards a fumble and if the refs ruled it that way, I don’t see how they wouldn’t stick with it and give Kevin Byard the scoop-and-score. New Orleans ended up hitting a field goal instead and that’s an immediate ten-point swing – seems pretty important in a one-point loss of a defensive struggle like this. I understand that this is theory evens out over time, where everybody will at some point benefit from a similar situation and they don’t want players to get hurt, but from the first time kids put on their helmets, they’re taught to play until the whistle blows. No reason to not let it run and overturn the call in the offense’s favor if necessary.

 

2. Arden Key was beating Trevor Penning like a drum

There were some disappointing performances from teams altogether and individual players across the first slate of games, but considering the expectations for him, I’m not sure anybody feels more deflated than the Saints right now about what Trevor Penning has shown so far in the NFL. We have to take the investment they’ve made into account when they drafted him 19^th overall last year. The amount of draft capital New Orleans used in order to move up for Chris Olave and Penning in that 2022 class is absolutely insane and it still includes a second-round pick next year. Olave looks like a young star receiver, while Penning has looked unplayable through two starts in the pros. Across from him, Arden Key didn’t gain traction early on as a third-round pick for the Raiders, but has been a very valuable piece to the 49ers and Jaguars these last two years as a spinner or quasi-nose-tackle on passing downs primarily, getting him involved in a bunch of games up front. On Sunday, he primarily lined up on the defensive right edge, because they had found a major weakness in Penning, which he was able to expose to the tune of 1.5 sacks and eight total pressures. Key went through the tackle’s chest regularly, was able to pull him off himself or win either direction by swiping away the hands late once he got that guy off balance.

 

3. We’ll probably see Malik Willis and/or Will Levis by Halloween

Three weeks ago, I posted a video on some of the most pivotal situations across the NFL heading into the 2023 season, where I mentioned that while it may not be totally fair towards him, Ryan Tannehill needed to fend off another rookie quarterback in 33^rd overall pick Will Levis (Kentucky) because the organization needed to re-set its timeline due to all the expensive veterans on the roster. Well, after what Tannehill showed on Sunday, Tennessee’s brass is probably ready to see what they have in Levis or Malik Willis – who they threw into the fire a couple of times as a third-round pick last year and unsurprisingly struggled due to simply not being ready and having a weak supporting cast. For a guy who’s willing to stand in tall and somewhat invites pressure by trying to read out concepts – and he did allow himself to get swallowed up in the pocket quite a few times – I’m generally accustomed to seeing him throw strikes to his receivers, quite he had several bad passes end up off-target. Balls were thrown up for grabs and asking his limited receivers to come down with jump-balls. All three of his interceptions came on those, with the last one going DeAndre Hopkins, who has been a specialist on those types of passes throughout his career, but actually was able to get even with the corner at least, who could easily pick off what ultimately looked like a miscommunication between the QB and WR. And he easily could’ve had two others after that, when he was a tad late on quick out routes towards the slot receiver. Along with that, he missed Chig Okonkwo streaking wide-open for a touchdown off a flea-flicker. Their week seven may be the floor for when this switch happens.

 

 

  San Francisco 49ers @ Pittsburgh Steelers: 

 

Final score – 30:7

 

1. Pittsburgh’s offense is the next unit we greatly overhyped during the preseason

Full transparency, I wasn’t feeling great about “only” having the Steelers going 9-8 and just missing the playoffs whilst watching their offense effortlessly go up and down the field when Pickett was out there during the preseason. George Pickens was one of the names I highlight as a young breakout candidate this offseason and if he did, that skill-position group was looking legit, while the left side of the O—line supposedly was going to look a better, investing a first-round pick in Broderick Jones (Georgia) and signing veteran guard Isaac Seumalo. Well, turns out Pittsburgh went with Dan Moore Jr. on the blindside tackle instead and he got destroyed, Pickett got back into his bad habit of escaping the pocket instead of using more subtle movements to navigate around pressure points and keeping a throw-ready posture and most importantly, as long as Matt Canada remains at offensive coordinator, they just go through the motions when they run – wait for it – motions and play iso-ball with their receivers. Obviously, 17 rushing yards on nine carries other than one good Najee Harris run doesn’t help, and having to put games into the quarterback’s hands.

 

2. The Drake Jackson breakout is in full swing

Since I just referenced George Pickens as one my breakout candidates for 2023, Jackson was part of my list on the defensive side of the ball and he didn’t make us wait around for long until justifying that. The second-year edge defender racked up two tackles for loss, three sacks and QB hits each. While the Nick Bosa return did give that entire unit some extra juice (even if he didn’t impress on the stat sheet), Clelin Ferrell seemingly will be the next reclamation project of D-line coach Kris Kocurek (which I discussed as a pivotal situation three weeks ago) and Javon Hargrave got his first sack with the Niners late, but Jackson ended up leading this star-studded group in all three of the categories mentioned. Coming out of USC, I thought he had a special ability to bend and win the corner, but in this matchup, it was more about he attacked the chest of the aforementioned Dan Moore Jr. at left tackle and was able to track down the scrambling Kenny Pickett that made the difference. Along with the lateral agility and how he can corner off twists, he could have a big year.

 

3. If Brock Purdy and Brandon Aiyuk play at this level, the rest of the league is in trouble

And this may seem like an easy observation, when you have a quarterback with a QBR of 91.3 (number one in week one and would’ve been for 2022) and a wide receiver who hauled in all eight of his targets for 129 yards and two touchdowns (third and tied for first respectively so far). However, I think we have to look at it through this lens – based on investments into them compared to the rest of the team, this was supposed to be a game-manager/distributor-type quarterback and his number four target in the passing game. And yet, they were absolutely murdering what has been one of the most prideful defenses in the league over the last few years. Purdy was on the money consistently working timing-based routes – in particular curls, deep outs and digs to Aiyuk – and he created secondary play opportunities when needed, once spinning away from an unblocked blitzing Minkah Fitzpatrick. Meanwhile, Aiyuk’s ability to get DBs leaning the wrong way before breaking them off, the extra gear he has after the catch and the concentration to come down with the back-shoulder fade vs. Patrick Peterson – whose words pre-game really came back to haunt the veteran CB – really shined.

 

 

  Arizona Cardinals @ Washington Commanders: 

 

Final score – 16:20

 

1. These two offenses are shockingly close to each other right now

Other than the games I actually watched live on Sunday, I started by quickly looking through the game logs, in order to gage the how the game played out, before I dove into the film. When I got the Cardinals-Commanders matchup, it was actually weird how eerily similar the offensive statistics on both sides ended up being – and they weren’t particularly good. Washington ran just seven more plays (65), had 38 more yards (248) and averaged 0.2 yards more per play (3.8). The only major difference was 21 versus 13 first downs picked up by the home team and I felt like they had more juice through the air, but that was balanced out by the fact they had one additional turnover (three), which the Cardinals turned into a defensive touchdown on the scoop-and-score off a Sam Howell strip-sack. Neither team was really able to do anything on the ground, as the Commanders averaged 3.3 yards per carry on the day and if you took out a 29-yard reverse by Marquise Brown, where the defense completely lost contain, you could take another full yard off the Cardinals 3.8-yard average. For Washington’s ball-carrier it regularly was “three yards in a cloud of dust”, while the Commanders D-line lived in Arizona’s backfield in the second half especially, racking up 11 TFLs on the day. The quarterbacks on either side finished 22^nd and 31^st respectively. For Washington the passing concepts felt a lot more static than I expected, with routes working back towards the QB, and while he had enough mustard on the ball mostly, Sam Howell too often was a tad late on those. For Josh Dobbs it was a lot of tight-window throws, where the juice wasn’t necessarily worth the squeeze and nothing really felt easy.

 

2. Arizona’s defense may not have a lot of name-recognition, but guys are capitalizing on their opportunity

I came into this matchup thinking the offensive talent was certainly tilted towards Washington and if not for turning the ball over three times, which all appeared easily avoidable, they could have easily put up ten more points probably. However, I want to commend Arizona for the effort they put on display defensively here. After watching the clip of head coach Jonathan Gannon’s cringeworthy attempt of hyping up the team – which their own media group decided was the best moment to share with the world – I had fairly low expectations to be honest, but none of these guys want to hear about how they might be tanking and are fighting for their NFL careers. The Cardinals D consistently was swarming to the ball, trying to punch it out and limiting free yardage, which is low they limited the Commanders to just 3.3 yards per carry. Edge defender Victor Dimukeje had some nice moments crushing the pocket and accelerating into a pulling guard, in order to funnel the ball back inside. Sixth-round pick Kei’Trel Clark (Louisville) is one of the feistiest corners I’ve evaluated and showed why he won that starting spot, only allowing 23 yards in coverage on the day. And then Gannon brought along a couple of guys from Philly in linebacker Kyzir White, whose short-area burst allowed him to beat blockers to the spot on multiple occasions and showcased good range in coverage, and safety K’Von Wallace, who barely saw the field as a former fourth-round pick with the Eagles, but he confidently drove on routes in front of him, logging a couple of pass break-ups and being just a finger-tip away from another one.

 

3. Brian Robinson Jr. owns this Washington backfield

Looking through fantasy football rankings prior to my video on favorite value picks, I saw that Antonio Gibson was listed slightly ahead of Brian Robinson, which kind of had me scratching my head. Obviously, Gibson is the more explosive option, while Robinson is more of in-between-the-tackler grinder, who averaged 3.9 yards per carry, with a long of 24 yards. However, we do need to remember that he literally got shot in the leg during the preseason and still only missed five weeks. He’s certainly a mature decision-maker as a ball-carrier, has better conceptual understanding of run designs, is a much more reliable pass-protector and has solid hands, to at least be a positive on check-downs when involved as a receiver. I thought there was a world where this split may be closer to 60-40 in Robinson’s favor and Gibson’s touches might end up being more valuable, but we got a different answer on Sunday at least. Despite the snap rate not being massively different with 61 vs. 35%, Robinson’s out-carried his teammate 19-to-three (59 vs. 9 yards gained), while both caught one pass (Robinson with one additional target), only the second-year man hauled in his one in the end-zone. Another Gibson having another fumble on such limited opportunities certainly didn’t help, with how much that has haunted him as a pro. Robinson got all the goal-line and short-yardage work basically and didn’t get locked into protection, at least releasing on swings and flat routes. None of these guys will be major fantasy contributors, but Robinson clearly is one with the opportunities necessary.

 

 

  Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears: 

 

Final score – 38:20

 

1. Maybe the Bears shouldn’t have cut their two best edge rushers from the preseason

So, to add some context to this – Chicago’s defense recorded a league-low 20 sacks this past season, trading away their only proven pass-rush threat off the edge in Robert Quinn, coming off an outlier 18.5-sack campaign. They were ultimately proven smart for doing so, as he only recorded one sack in seven games for the Bears and then none for Philadelphia, playing just 22% of defensive snaps for them. However, coming into the offseason, they had a definite hole on the roster at that position, yet even after I mentioned it as their biggest remaining need in a video the middle of June, they didn’t address it all basically outside of veteran Yannick Ngakoue in early August. DeMarcus Walker and Rasheem Green are nice rotational pieces, doing their best work rushing on the interior. However, thankfully Travis Gipson and Terrell Lewis actually really stood out in the preseason, as through 2.5 games (Lewis missed one of them), they combined for five sacks and five QB hits. Yet the organization do release both of them, getting into a ridiculous 3-4 vs. 4-3 front discussion in the year 2023, when asked about it at the podium. On Sunday, as a team they recorded just one sack and three more hits on Jordan Love. And the one sack they did have, came in the final minute of the first half, where Yannick Ngakoue came free late off a stunt and Love slid that way. Their pressure rate of just 10% was worse than any team put up in a single game of 2022.

 

2. Jordan Love looks very comfortable in Matt LaFleur’s offense

When the Packers decided to trade up and draft Love 26^th overall out of Utah State in 2020, there was a ton of discussion about what this would mean for Aaron Rodgers’ career. The veteran signal-caller ended up winning back-to-back MVPs, but the relationship clearly started to show cracks in the foundation. So when they ultimately traded him to the Jets this offseason and Love signed an extension that basically would suggest he’s betting against himself in terms of potential earnings, people started to speculate how much of a drop-off in play Green Bay may see after 30 straight years of Hall of Famers under center. Love looked tremendous throughout the preseason and what he did in his second game as a starter on Sunday was night and day from what we saw in hat emergency start at Kansas City a couple of years ago, when people were ready to write the young QB off. He looked a lot better already last year when filling in for Rodgers in the Eagles game, but he took another step against in Chicago. Love was getting the ball to his targets with leverage advantages pre-snap quickly, allowed concepts to develop, such as crossers passing the sinking linebacker and delivered the ball accurately on the move, tossing three TDs on the day. The O-line provided him clean pockets throughout the day, with David Bakhtiari not allowing any pressure after again missing extended stretches of offseason activities, and the young QB was happy sitting in that space – very encouraging early signs.

 

3. Chicago is still at the beginning stages of this rebuild

A lot of people out there I thought were very quick to jump on the Bears bandwagon this offseason and expected them to compete for the NFC North, with quarterback Justin Fields taking another big step heading into year three. I thought he certainly took strides as a passer, but the insane highlight rushing touchdowns overshadowed that if you were to take away scrambles, he would have finished dead-last in EPA per dropback. The ability to work through progressions and not invite pressure still was an issue, as he was among three quarterbacks with a sack rate of more than 14% since 2000 last season, and he completely missed linebacker Quay Walker trying to fit in a crosser, who ended up pick-sixing it. I believe D.J. Moore can be a legit number one weapon, but he was getting locked up by Jaire Alexander (two catches for 25 yards), there was nothing schematically or in terms of other receivers creating many opportunities, as 11 of the 22 other completions went to running backs, with a bunch of checkdowns in garbage time. The running back group gaining 63 yards on 20 carries also didn’t help, with the O-line failing to create push in that regard and being leaky in the pass game on numerous occasions. Defensively, they did defend the run a little better than I might have expected, but I mentioned the historally-low pressure rate and they allowed the Pack to go 9-of-16 on third downs. Let’s not get ahead of ourselves – they did hold number one overall pick in April originally.

 

 

  Las Vegas Raiders @ Denver Broncos: 

 

Final score – 17:16

 

1. Sean Payton is back, Russell Wilson maybe

Following a year off from coaching and spending the offseason criticizing the former coaching staff as well as some other people still in the building for Denver, Payton immediately gave us flashbacks to Super Bowl XLIV by electing to start the day with a surprise onside kick – And they would have recovered, if not for a penalty due to a player on the kicking team touching the ball maybe half a yard early. Just like I thought, this backfield appears to be pretty close to 50-50, as Samaje Perine will be a major contributor, particularly with Javonte Williams simply not looking as explosive or able to make the first man miss. And they were spreading the wealth, with ten different offensive players catching a pass, with a running back and tight-end leading the charge. The biggest piece to Payton taking over this job was reinvigorating Russ. I thought he showed a little more mobility and executed more within the system in the first half at least. The Broncos got into opposing territory on all three first-half possessions, putting the ball in the end-zone twice. They did miss a long field-goal attempt and had to settle for a chip-shot following halftime, before having a three-and-out and their defense not getting them the ball back for the final minutes. So generally the offense was a lot more promising than last year or the 16 points would suggest, but Russ bailed the pocket unnecessarily later on and had balls on timing-based routes nose-dive in front of his receivers.

 

2. Davante Adams vs. Patrick Surtain II remains one of the best one-on-one matchups across the league

Several cornerbacks across the NFL have gotten embarrassed by Davante Adams through the years, as recently as last year, when he finished third in receiving yards (1516) and first in touchdowns (14). However, even as just a second-year player, Surtain was extremely competitive in their two matchups and now it has truly become a 50-50 affair I’d say – if anything it’s tilted towards the All-Pro corner, which is extremely rare considering the advantages the offensive player has by nature, particularly with how the rules have moved. Across 16 snaps of one-on-one coverage, Adams caught two of five targets for just 11 yards and Surtain broke up the other three, for a passer rating of just 46.6 when going his way. That included sticking like glue to number 17 on a flea-flicker, where the CB beautifully high-pointed and nearly picked off the pass down the sideline. It got to a point where Jimmy G actively targeted Damarri Mathis on the opposite side of the field and Jakobi Meyers had a big day with a couple of goal-line touchdowns. These two teams may not be super relevant currently, but I’ll be checking the tape and watch these two do battle in the season-finale.

 

3. Denver needs Baron Browning to turn himself into an absolute superstar pass-rusher

There was a lot to like about this Broncos defense heading into 2023. They had put together dominant stretches in recent years, as long as the offense was at least competent. They were projected for a significant switch schematically, going from a Vic Fangio disciple in Ejiro Evero whose ideas are based on split-safety looks but worked in a lot of post-snap rotations, to now Vance Joseph’s pressure-heavy approach, where they rely on a lot of man-coverage – which makes sense when you have a true lockdown corner like Surtain. However, what this does is tell the story before the ball is snapped a lot more and offenses that have answers for it can quickly make them pay, neutralizing that rush. On Sunday against a questionable Raiders O-line, they had zero sacks and just 3 QB hits all game. That’s despite signing Randy Gregory and Zach Allen to big multi-year deals these past two offseason, at just under 30 million dollars annually combined, along with Nik Bonitto being their highest-drafted player at the end of the second round last year and then signing Frank Clark in the second waive of free agency on a solid one-year veteran deal this summer. Vegas was running a lot of early-down play-action and were able to create clean pockets for Jimmy G. Back-shoulder balls to defeat man-coverage were regularly the answer when Denver brought extra pressure and the Raiders protection was able to pick those up. The exclamation mark was Jimmy G scrambling for a 3rd & 8 and getting the game-clinching first down.

 

 

  Miami Dolphins @ Los Angeles Chargers: 

 

Final score – 37:34

 

1. The Kellen Moore effect on the Bolts offense is palpable

How former offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi held back Justin Herbert and made this a predictable, non-dynamic unit last season was a big topic for discussion and something that got me frustrated regularly as well. We’ll have to see how well he’ll be able to adjust depending on how opposing defenses approached him, but initial signs are pretty encouraging – The Chargers scored on six of their ten possessions on the day, with touchdowns on four of those. Herbert’s intended air yards per pass attempt was at still towards the bottom of the list, but he did have three completions of 20+ yards (tied for eighth) and only Jordan Love in a bootleg-heavy Packers offense had a higher yards after catch per completion (8.0 yards per). And even more telling was their success on the ground – If you take out two-minute drills at the end of either half, the Chargers ran the ball on 19 of 31 first downs throughout the day, and if you look at their EPA per rush mark, it’s right on par with Patrick Mahomes on dropbacks during last year’s MVP campaign (24 of 36 runs were graded “successful”). We saw a lot more vertical orientation in the run game, tight-ends weren’t asked to deal with edge defenders at the point of attack, but rather wrapping around for lead-blocks and executing kick-outs.

 

2. Mike McDaniel continues to find ways to challenge defenses

Right off the bat, Tua Tagovailoa and Tyreek Hill were insane on Sunday. Tua had arguably the best game of his career, being extremely decisive with getting the ball out before the rush could get to him (zero sacks and two QB hits) and making more plays out of structure than I’ve seen from him in the NFL yet, as he went 28-of-45 for 466 yards and three touchdowns, while his lone interception came on a 50-50 ball into the end-zone. 215 yards and two of those scores went to Cheetah, hauling in 11 of 15 targets. However, I was equally impressed with the guy pulling the strings and creating issues for the defense schematically. In 2022, they used lots of jet motion and had that one RPO concept they terrorized the league with throughout the first half of the season, but then in this game it was a ton of short motion on the same side of the formation, where it forced defenders to communicate and change responsibilities. They would create a fast four to one side or fake orbit motion and then revert, in order to use the speed of those weapons and change the picture just before the snap. One play that stood out was a same-side speed motion into a dig route for Tyreek, which put J.C. Jackson in a blender. Tua finished the week with the highest intended air yards per attempt (11.1) despite having the fifth-quickest average time to throw (2.53 seconds). That’s almost impossible – and so is taking away explosives for this Miami offense, if McDaniel continues to evolve them.

 

3. His interception masks how toast J.C. Jackson is

And since I just mentioned him, Jackson had a rough day against this dynamic passing attacks. On paper, he had that nice interception in the end-zone and three more pass break-ups. According to pro-football-reference.com, he allowed three completions for 99 yards and a touchdown at the end of the third quarter, where Tyreek ran right by him a fade route, catching it with a full three yards of separation. And that I don’t believe actually includes a 29-yard gain on that dig route off speed motion – which to be fair, would’ve been nearly impossible to defend for anybody. Yet, two of those three PBUs were pretty easy ones on underthrown deep overs. Plus, then of course he had that stupid shove of wide receiver Erik Ezunkanma on a vertical route with zeros on the clock and allowing the Dolphins to hit another field-goal just before halftime, when there were four Charger defenders around the ball. Those three points ultimately made the difference in the outcome of this game. That’s all after being responsible for a passer rating of 149.3 last year, surrendering four touchdowns and not picking off a pass for the first time in his career. L.A. ran man-coverage about 80% of dropbacks – that may not be a feasible strategy going forward, especially against the weapons on an offense like this.

 

 

  Philadelphia Eagles @ New England Patriots: 

 

Final score – 25:20

 

1. Zeke is beyond washed and can’t be on the field this much

When the Patriots signed free agent running back Ezekiel Elliott in the middle of August, I was confused about the move. I thought if he was a pure short-yardage runner and could take some pressure of Rhamondre Stevenson playing fewer pass-pro snaps, I thought six million dollars was a high price tag and if they used him more extensively, it would result in lost value based on touches, because Rhamondre proved last season that he can be a true three-down back for the first time in a while for New England, turning 210 carries and 69 catches into 1461 yards and six touchdowns. Meanwhile, Zeke had been one of the least efficient ball-carriers in the NFL for the last couple of years, while Rhamondre forced more tackles after the catch (21) than any RB not named Austin Ekeler, who caught 40(!) more balls. And yet through the first half, their touches were about evenly split. For the day, Zeke had seven carries for 29 yards and five more catches for 14, as they actually called screen passes and designed basically triple-option plays with him as the “speed” element. He could not wiggle himself out of the initial wrap ever and had a ball punched out. It was a bad day for the Pats’ run game in general as Rhamondre had only 25 yards on his 12 carries, but he did catch six passes for another 64 yards, including three key first downs picked up, where he was able to make the first man miss.

 

2. New England’s defense will give 11-personnel heavy offenses a lot of trouble

Going into the matchup, I thought New England’s defense was a tough matchup for Philly and flirted with the +4 spread, but ultimately decided to bet the Under 46.5 live instead (which I did actually cash). The reasons I thought we might be see a low-scoring struggle here were based on the bad weather to some degree, but much more importantly how the Patriots would be able to match by far the Eagles’ favorite personnel set. After finishing near the top of the league in that regard this past season, they once again had three wide receivers, one tight-end and running back on the field for about 85% of snaps on Sunday. Across the field, the Patriots easily led the league in their usage of dime personnel defensively and that was their primary set in this matchup as well against 11. Along with just the idea of matching similar body-types, they actually have the cover talent to challenge receivers at the line with press-man coverage to throw the timing of Philly’s RPOs and use their ”free” DBs to bracket in certain situations. On the front-end, they do run a lot of games and have become a better unit at finishing for sacks, but the core pocket-collapsing principles are still there and in this matchup, how well they stayed in their pass-rush lanes made it tough for Jalen Hurts to escape. Following the quick 16-0 lead they built thanks to a short field set up by the Zeke fumble and the Darius Slay pick-six, the Eagles picked up just ten first downs through the final 47 minutes.

 

3. Jalen Carter is going to be a game-wrecker right away if given the opportunities

The Georgia star defensive tackle was my number one overall prospect in the draft purely based on talent and while I couldn’t gage how off-field concerns may ultimately affect how willing teams across the league were to invest a high pick into him, when the Eagles moved up one spot in order to select him ninth overall, I thought the rest of the league might be in trouble. He was the most disruptive player on a Bulldog defense that put up historical numbers, won back-to-back national championships and sent six other first-round picks to the NFL. Well, after one week – and to some degree what we saw in the preseason – there may be a couple of other franchises thinking why they didn’t trade up or straight-up select him earlier. Not only was he quite easily the highest-graded rookie in week one by Pro Football Focus (92.1), but he finished third in that regard among all defensive players in the league and his productivity on a per-snap basis was pretty insane. Along with one tackle for loss and sack each, he recorded seven(!) other pressures, while only logging 50% of defensive snaps for the Eagles (40 of 80). Putting that into relation with the 34 pass-rush snaps he had, that puts him at a pressure rate of 23.5% per rush opportunity. For comparison – Chris Jones, who stood above the rest of the interior D-linemen with his 97 pressures last season, was at “just” 13.1%. It’s unheard of, and he didn’t Carter didn’t even need many moves, either winning cross-face with the high swim or starting with the bull-rush one way and then pulling the opposite arm over once he got the guard off balance.

 

 

  Los Angeles Rams @ Seattle Seahawks: 

 

Final score – 30:13

 

1. The Rams were clearly the better-coached team

It was easy to poke holes in the Rams this offseason, because on paper their offensive line – which lost the battle at the line of scrimmage on a weekly basis last season – was largely the same, outside of a second-round pick at left guard, and the defensive depth chart was loaded with late-round draft picks and undrafted free agents. However, a great coaching staff can elevate the talent you have and that’s what Sean McVay, Raheem Morris and company did on Sunday afternoon. When fifth-round pick Puka Nacua and 160-pound Tutu Atwell lead your team with 119 receiving yards each (on ten and six catches respectively), you know you’re doing something right schematically on the offensive side of the ball. McVay regularly created spacing issues through clever route patterns and funky cross-releases that challenged the rules of Seattle’s coverages. If not for two long field goals being blocked and missed respectively, they would’ve scored on all but one of their possessions on the day and they had the ball for nearly 40 minutes. Meanwhile, the energy Morris had this defense flying around with popped off the screen. They dropped an eight man to really flood the underneath areas and create muddy pictures for Geno Smith in the quick game, their young D-line played with a ton of energy and when they manned up, their cover-guys did so with aggressiveness and attitude.

 

2. If those Seahawk offensive tackles miss extended time, they may be in trouble

Seattle him an absolute homerun with their 2022 rookie class, which included finalists for Offensive and Defensive Rookie of the Year in Kenneth Walker III and Tariq Woolen. Maybe most importantly however, they came out of it with their starting tackle duo of Charles Cross and Abraham Lucas, who were both plus starters right away and were expected to take another step in their respective sophomore campaigns. Unfortunately, they both left the game on Sunday and the contest got away from them once that happened. The score was 14-13 Rams midway through the third quarter when the lost the second half of that tandem to injury and from that point onwards, the only first down they still picked up on offense (three more possessions) came on a pass interference call against the corner on what would’ve otherwise been a five-yard catch on second-and-long. Of course, it would be silly to make this a direct correlation, but you saw Seattle’s O-line have trouble picking up twists, third-round pick Byron Young flashed off both edges and Michael Hoecht got involved on the last couple of driving-ending, while Geno Smith got pushed backwards by the interior rush quite regularly.

 

3. Matt Stafford isn’t done yet

Man, the dude was slinging it on Sunday! We were all quick to write off the Rams prior to this season and Matt Stafford in particular was looked at by many as this completely broken-down quarterback, who they may be moving on from next offseason. While I still believe that as much as I like the ideas of defensive coordinator Raheem Morris and how well he may have this unit fine-tuned, ultimately talent will win out and they’ll have problems against some of the top offenses in the league, and the fact they’ll need to hit on several late-round draft picks like Puka Nacua, in order to return to legit contender status, they may still have the franchise signal-caller in place. Stafford was absolutely ripping throws over the middle, his helmet was moving like a water sprinkler as he was progressing through full-field reads and he was side-arming passes to his targets in the flats or wrapping the arm around one of his offensive line. Generally, he had a pretty clean pocket to operate from, but he looked light on his feet dancing around back there and was nailing throws on the move. The one that really stood out to me – he had an unreal touch-throw over the head of a defender in perfect position on a shake/circus route for a huge third-and-eight conversion in the fourth quarter.

 

 

  Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants: 

 

Final score – 40:0

 

1. The Cowboys D-line can absolutely take over games

The beatdown Dallas put on the Giants defensively this past Sunday night was one of the most dominant performances I can remember in recent years. The home team actually made it down all the way to the opposing eight-yard line on their opening drive, before penalties pushed them back and they had a field goal blocked and returned for a touchdown. From that point onwards, only once did the G-Men make it past the 50-yard line and that resulted in a badly missed kick shortly before halftime. Seven different Cowboy defenders recorded a tackle for loss and they had 19(!) combined sacks and QB hits, pressuring Daniel Jones on an insane 62.2% of dropbacks, according to Next Gen Stats. Things just started to pile on and that’s where the Dallas front can really shine, bringing bodies in waves, running a variety of different games up front (which they did more than any other team in the league all season) and going after the ball. You have to be able to run the ball at them – which the Giants did fairly well, averaging 4.3 yards per carry for their running backs – but then you make one or two little mistakes and they take full advantage.

 

2. There are still no real difference-makers among the Giants wide receivers

What Brian Daboll and Mike Kafka were able to do in New York last year, somehow paper-clipping things together to orchestrate a more than functional offense, despite a couple of shaky starters on the O-line and the least inspiring group of skill-position players we have in the league outside of Saquon Barkley. Well, on Sunday even those mad geniuses appeared completely flabbergasted by the waves that were coming at them, as they were clearly overmatched up front and they couldn’t create any schematic advantages to help out Daniel Jones. Above all though, as fun as it was to see like seven different slot receivers on this initial 90-man roster, they just didn’t seem to have the dudes that could win early and neutralize the pass-rush to some degree, Outside of Darren Waller’s three catches for three catches for 36 yards, Isaiah Hodgins actually led the team with 24 yards on his one grab off a slant route and he had the ball punched out by Trevon Diggs at the end of it for another fumble. Trying to throw shallow crossers to Parris Campbell or Darius Slayton and hoping they don’t get their heads knocked off by the safety on the opposite side of the field just isn’t going to cut it. They need third-round pick Jalin Hyatt to threat defenses vertically, Hodgins to be more involved as a bigger body on in-breaking routes and add that special sauce to their three-man concepts when defenses overplay Waller as the single receiver on the backside.

 

3. Early swings set the table for this score to get out of hand

The Cowboys are obviously a really tough matchup for the G-Men and the last team you want to get down by multiple scores against. We saw the same thing happen against the Vikings last year, when they were a (faulty) 8-and-1 team at the time and the Dallas pass-rush could just go after the trailing team. Based on what we saw in their two matchups, the Cowboys were clearly the more talented team, but both of those contests were one-score affairs. The blocked field goal and TD return plus the pick-six by Daron Bland, where Trevon Diggs squeezes inside on Saquon Barkley from cover-two, where he’s trying to catch a dump-off and the corner pops the ball up for his teammate, combined with a field goal for Dallas and it’s suddenly 16-0 less than 13 minutes into the game. That’s despite making it inside the opposing ten-yard line on their first possession for the Giants. From that point on, you’re trying to get back in the race and that’s just not going to happen when the Cowboys have several sportscars lined up across from you wreaking havoc, when you’re just not built to get into catch-up mode. And we have to question if the score would have been any close to this, if their rookie center doesn’t have that low snap on third-and-goal that pushes them back and ultimately leads to the blocked kick. On paper, this is at least a slightly better team and the coaching staff remains the same from last year. I don’t expect them to completely fall off going forward.

 

 

  Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets: 

 

Final score – 16:22

 

1. Jets fans just can’t have anything nice

Like I mentioned on social media – I can’t even describe in words how sick to my stomach I feel for them and Aaron Rodgers after bringing in the four-time MVP to end their seemingly endless streak of disappointing quarterback play throughout the years. With 12 years straight of not making it to the tournament, they own the longest playoff draught across the four major US leagues. This year’s crew on paper was by far the best team since the early Rex Ryan years with Gang Green and you can certainly argue they had the opportunity to actually be more complete, if Rodgers could even just perform somewhere between MVP and 2022 form, in particular with a championship-level defense. But no, all the New Yorker got four stinking plays of a REAL quarterback, before he went down with the worst injury of his career. Now on the verge of turning 40 years old, we have to question if he’s willing to push himself to a return from the torn Achilles still for probably one final season. All the more impressive that the Jets somehow rallied and ultimately won on a walk-off punt return TD by undrafted free agent Xavier Gipson in overtime, despite their head coach even looking like a saw a ghost when you saw his face when seeing number eight go down.

 

2. Josh Allen is too good to be reason Buffalo loses games

The Bills offense certainly had some bright spots and there were elements of pre-elbow injury Josh Allen that were very encouraging, showing that tremendous chemistry with Stefon Diggs to quickly get to a secondary route and defeat an All-Pro corner in Sauce Gardner, a couple of cool play-designs and Josh working down to his checkdowns for positive. Unfortunately, for most of the day it looked like he was back in Wildcard game mode against the Dolphins, where he’s playing hero-ball and treating the situation as if he was down by six points in the fourth quarter. The first of his three interceptions was more like an arm-punt, but then on a second down on the fringe of field-goal range he just blindly trusted the backside safety in quarters would drive down on a dig route and later the Jets were in cover-two and Allen tried to force in a corner route, which Jordan Whitehead playing from inside leverage had the freedom to undercut for his third pick on the day. Yet, even more so maybe diving into traffic after bobbling a snap and trying to dive over a couple of defenders in the open field – he turned back into “Captain Chaos” as Nate Tice from The Athletic likes to call him. After seeing Aaron Rodgers leave the game and the gameplan of the Jets being running the ball on first and second down pretty much every possession, this was a game where they just needed to take care of the ball and put up 17 points.

 

3. Zach Wilson deserves a chance, but this team is too good to relive another 2022 season

Don’t get me wrong here – Zach Wilson has been a massive disappointment since the Jets selected him second overall in the 2021 draft and he’s received plenty of opportunity to prove himself as the starter. With that being said, I thought it made no sense to bench him last year when they did, seemingly more so for a lack of maturity in the comments he made on the podium than his play. Because while he didn’t give them a whole lot in the passing game, it was enough to lead them to a 5-2 record until losing the second contest to the Patriots – who have consistently given young Jets QBs trouble through the years. Wilson looked good in the preseason and I think he’s found a nice balance between confidence and humility. With that being said, if he can’t play winning football, this supporting cast of Garrett Wilson making an insane TD grab on Sunday and Breece Hall ripping off 127 yards on 10 carries, combined with that bonkers defense are too strong to waste on another 2022 season. And if there are any options out there, the Jets can’t leave any stones unturned. The one tiny thread of positivity is that now because Rodgers won’t even come close to the percentage of snaps they put into the trade with the Packers, New York will actually retain their first-round pick and could use it potentially at the deadline to acquire a veteran QB from a team that may be looking to the future.